Prof. Dr. Vladimir M. Cvetković is a recognized expert in Disaster Risk Management, with extensive experience in disaster risk reduction, community preparedness, disaster response, and recovery. His work focuses on improving the safety and resilience of communities.
Prof. Dr. Vladimir M. Cvetković has conducted numerous scientific research projects and published over 300 scientific papers in domestic and international journals and proceedings, including 30 scientific monographs, 3 textbooks, and a doctoral dissertation.
By quantifying scientific results, Prof. Dr. Vladimir M. Cvetković has achieved more than 800 scientific points. His main areas of research interest are security, disasters, emergency situations, natural and anthropogenic hazards, risk management, and civil protection. He is proficient in English and German.
According to official data from Google Scholar, there are a total of 3,650 citations. The h-index is 27, and the i10-index is 72.
According to the latest World Scientist AD Index ranking, Dr. Vladimir Cvetković is honoured to be among the top 9 scientists from Serbia in the field of social sciences and among the top 8 scientists at the University of Belgrade. Furthermore, he holds the distinguished position of leading scientist in the field of security and emergency management (disasters) as per the World Scientist and University Rankings 2024. It is noteworthy that those ranked ahead of him are on average 30 years older, highlighting the exceptional impact of his work at a relatively younger age. With over 3,650 citations, this recognition is a testament to his outstanding work and unwavering dedication, reflecting the excellence of the Department of Disaster Management and Environmental Security, Faculty of Security at the University of Belgrade, where he is currently employed. Dr. Cvetković is profoundly grateful for this prestigious acknowledgement, which underscores his significant contributions and steadfast commitment to advancing scientific knowledge.
Scientific papers
Understanding seismic hazard resilience in Montenegro: A qualitative analysis of community preparedness and response capabilities
Abstract: Enhancing resilience against seismic hazards in earthquake-prone regions is essential for reducing the devastating impacts of disasters. Seismic resilience refers to a community’s ability to withstand and recover from earthquake impacts, while preparedness gaps are the areas where current measures are insufficient to effectively respond to or mitigate earthquake damage. This study focuses on Montenegro – a region with frequent seismic activity – aiming to assess resilience levels, identify critical gaps in preparedness, and evaluate the effectiveness of existing response strategies. Using qualitative methods, including semi-structured interviews, the research gathered insights from residents of Montenegro’s most vulnerable cities: Nikšić, Podgorica, Bar, Kotor, Cetinje, Budva, Herceg Novi, and Berane. Participants, chosen for their first-hand experience with significant earthquake impacts, provided valuable perspectives on various aspects of resilience, from local government response to individual preparedness. This research revealed significant disparities in resilience across communities: for instance, approximately 62.5% of the respondents highlighted inadequate education as a barrier to effective earthquake preparedness, and only 37.5% reported awareness of basic earthquake response procedures. Furthermore, while some communities, such as urban areas with accessible services, reported higher preparedness levels, rural areas showed deficiencies, with 50% of the respondents from these areas identifying a lack of organized drills and limited public awareness initiatives. These findings underscore the urgent need for community-specific preparedness programs and enhancements in both structural resilience and public education to bolster community readiness effectively. Also, findings highlight the need for customized preparedness programs tailored to specific community needs, alongside improvements in structural safety measures and educational outreach. The study underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach involving detailed risk assessments, community-focused preparedness training, and stronger public awareness initiatives. Furthermore, the study calls for enhanced local government capabilities to sustain proactive response measures, including rapid mobilization of emergency resources and regular disaster simulations, to build long-term resilience across communities.
Conclusion: A comprehensive qualitative study presents a rich repository of data with deeper insights into Montenegro’s resilience to earthquake-related disasters. The study reveals substantial variability in seismic resilience across communities, with some areas displaying strong preparedness measures, like early-warning systems and accessible shelters, while others exhibit significant weaknesses in public awareness and institutional readiness. The findings underscore the critical need for community-specific resilience programs to address these disparities and enhance preparedness across all levels. Through in-depth interviews with residents from various seismic-prone areas, a certain level of population resilience was established. Although the majority of interviewed participants indicate a low level of resilience in Montenegro to earthquakes, many of them have not directly faced the consequences of such events. For these reasons, they largely emphasize the necessity of improving resilience strategies and implementing preventive measures at both national and local levels. On the other hand, the obtained results also point to the low effectiveness of existing safety measures, as well as the need for additional research to examine all possible impacts of such events. The study’s findings contribute to the broader theories of disaster risk management and resilience by emphasizing the importance of adaptable, community-based approaches to earthquake preparedness.
The study emphasizes the need for educational and preparedness programs tailored to address each community’s unique vulnerabilities and strengths. By developing community-specific resilience measures, stakeholders can more effectively mitigate seismic risks in ways that are meaningful and practical for local residents. Increasing public awareness and strengthening local institutional readiness are crucial for enhancing resilience against seismic hazards. Public outreach initiatives, paired with improved response capabilities among local institutions, serve as foundational steps in building a robust disaster-preparedness framework. Concrete actions, such as regular community drills, targeted educational campaigns, and the integration of disaster preparedness content into school curricula, have been highlighted as actionable steps to increase public awareness and community resilience.
These findings contribute to the broader disaster risk management and resilience theories by offering insight into the real-world application of resilience strategies and by underscoring the necessity of adaptable, community-centred approaches. The analysis of all the results highlights the urgent need for Montenegrin society to strengthen its preparedness, and consequently its resilience, through educational programs and plans to mitigate the effects of future earthquakes. This requires strategic and operational commitment from society to devise, implement, and put into action all structural and non-structural measures that will enhance earthquake resilience. On the other hand, the study in many segments also emphasizes the importance of raising public awareness, as well as local and regional institutional readiness, to lift the low level of awareness about such disasters to a slightly higher level. The insights gained from this study can be effectively applied to other regions facing similar seismic risks. Policymakers and emergency planners in earthquake-prone areas can adapt these recommendations to their unique geographical and social landscapes.
Raising awareness would also enable a more rational perception of the risks associated with such disasters, which would lead to increased motivation for elevating the culture of resilience to a higher level. Certainly, a layered approach at all societal levels, comprehensive institutional commitment, and involvement represent essential prerequisites for building such resilience. In addition, by promoting a proactive stance on resilience and strengthening education, infrastructure, and community engagement, Montenegro can improve its safety protocols and preparedness, fostering a more effective response to inevitable seismic activities. This study provides specific guidance for policymakers, particularly on implementing recommendations in ways that align with existing disaster preparedness frameworks. Policy adjustments to include resilience metrics, localized educational programs, and clear roles for community stakeholders are essential. Integrating these recommendations presents challenges, such as securing financial resources and public buy-in. However, solutions including public–private partnerships and engaging community leaders may help overcome these obstacles. Limitations, such as the focus on qualitative data and the sample size, suggest areas for further research. Future studies could include quantitative assessments and larger samples to broaden the findings and test their generalizability.
The high scientific and societal value of this research is reflected in its numerous implications for scientific and social development. The conducted research has generated a fundamental empirical database that can serve as a comparison of resilience levels between the region and the international community. The research marks the beginning of a pioneering endeavour for the further development of instruments for conducting quantitative and qualitative studies in the field of disaster risk management. In addition, the study contributes to the broader field of disaster (risk) management by providing a methodological framework that can be applied to assess and analyse community resilience when facing seismic challenges. It is also worth noting that the nuanced insights gained from the diverse experiences of Montenegrin municipalities enrich the academic discourse on preparedness and resilience to disasters, suggesting pathways for further research.
Contrary to the scientific implications, the societal implications are highly significant for policymakers and decision-makers at all levels, as they clearly highlight the weaknesses and challenges that must be overcome. The findings of the study can be considered when creating programs to improve the culture of resilience among the population. As such, they can be grounded and based on all identified shortcomings and clarifications derived from the comprehensive analysis of Montenegro’s population resilience to earthquakes. This study highlights gaps, particularly in understanding how local community characteristics influence resilience. Further research is needed to examine the effectiveness of tailored education programs and preparedness drills, and how these interventions impact overall disaster resilience at the community level. Specific areas for future investigation include the long-term effects of educational outreach programs, the role of community leaders in resilience-building, and the effectiveness of policy interventions in fostering a culture of preparedness. Such research could deepen understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to sustainable resilience. The variability in preparedness across different localities suggests that response strategies must be flexible and adapted to local needs. This study illustrates that a one-size-fits-all approach may not be effective; instead, response plans should reflect community-specific factors to optimize resilience and reduce risks.
Reference: Cvetković, V., Grozdanić, G., Milanović, M., Marković, S. & Lukić, T. (2024). Understanding seismic hazard resilience in Montenegro: A qualitative analysis of community preparedness and response capabilities. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220729. https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0729
Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Emergency Medical Response Systems in Serbian Healthcare: Assessing Systemic Vulnerabilities in Disaster Preparedness and Response
Abstract: Background/Objectives: Emergency Medical Response Systems (EMRSs) play a vital role in delivering medical aid during natural and man-made disasters. This quantitative research delves into the analysis of risk and effectiveness within Serbia’s Emergency Medical Services (EMS), with a special emphasis on how work organization, resource distribution, and preparedness for mass casualty events contribute to overall disaster preparedness. Methods: The study was conducted using a questionnaire consisting of 7 sections and a total of 88 variables, distributed to and collected from 172 healthcare institutions (Public Health Centers and Hospitals). Statistical methods, including Pearson’s correlation, multivariate regression analysis, and chi-square tests, were rigorously applied to analyze and interpret the data. Results: The results from the multivariate regression analysis revealed that the organization of working hours (β = 0.035) and shift work (β = 0.042) were significant predictors of EMS organization, explaining 1.9% of the variance (R2 = 0.019). Furthermore, shift work (β = −0.045) and working hours (β = −0.037) accounted for 2.0% of the variance in the number of EMS points performed (R2 = 0.020). Also, the availability of ambulance vehicles (β = 0.075) and financial resources (β = 0.033) explained 4.1% of the variance in mass casualty preparedness (R2 = 0.041). When it comes to service area coverage, the regression results suggest that none of the predictors were statistically significant. Based on Pearson’s correlation results, there is a statistically significant correlation between the EMS organization and several key variables such as the number of EMS doctors (p = 0.000), emergency medicine specialists (p = 0.000), etc. Moreover, the Chi-square test results reveal statistically significant correlations between EMS organization and how EMS activities are conducted (p = 0.001), the number of activity locations (p = 0.005), and the structure of working hours (p = 0.001). Conclusions: Additionally, the results underscore the necessity for increased financial support, standardized protocols, and enhanced intersectoral collaboration to strengthen Serbia’s EMRS and improve overall disaster response effectiveness. Based on these findings, a clear roadmap is provided for policymakers, healthcare administrators, and EMS personnel to prioritize strategic interventions and build a robust emergency medical response system.
Conclusion: The analysis of the Emergency Medical Response System (EMRS) in the Serbian healthcare system reveals numerous deficiencies and serious challenges that require the implementation of urgent short-term and long-term measures for improvement. This study is one of the few in Serbia that comprehensively examines multiple indicators of the efficiency and effectiveness of such a system. The extensive study results point to significant and widespread variations in the organization and functioning of EMRS across the country. It can be assumed that these variations are a result of both historical and economic changes, as well as regional specificities. Although certain segments of the system, such as specialized emergency departments, function efficiently, the organization in many areas is inconsistent, leading to inadequate access to emergency medical assistance in some regions of the country. On the other hand, this diversity underscores the need for standardized procedures and more centralized management to improve coordination and optimize efficiency. Certainly, all identified weaknesses must be addressed in the shortest possible time, and the organization and functioning of the system must be improved.
Besides the mentioned facts, the study identified several key weaknesses that significantly affect the efficiency of the system. Among these, outdated infrastructure, a chronic lack of staff, and inadequate logistics stand out, all of which together slow down response times in emergencies, including various disasters. Although reforms aimed at aligning with European standards have been initiated, their implementation is often limited by a lack of financial resources and capacity. The results also show that many emergency services rely on minimal resources and improvisations, while some units operate with insufficiently trained personnel and outdated equipment. Moreover, dependence on the National Health Insurance Fund (RFZO) as the main source of funding further burdens the system, while local budgets and self-generated revenue are insufficient for the stable development and sustainability of EMRS.
Thus, a critical step in improving the system is conducting targeted resource audits and establishing funds for the procurement of modern equipment for emergency medical services. All of these identified weaknesses become particularly evident under the difficult conditions caused by disasters. Therefore, the introduction of mobile units and strategic partnerships with technology providers can significantly improve the distribution of resources, especially in less developed and rural areas. Additionally, sharing resources among EMRS agencies and increasing intersectoral cooperation would optimize the use of available capacities, resulting in greater efficiency.
A particularly important area that requires attention is the various aspects of communication system organization and functionality. In the study, communication was identified as one of the most critical points in the functioning of EMRS. The results clearly indicate significant gaps in communication systems, including a lack of standardized protocols and limited connections with key services such as the police and firefighting–rescue services. The introduction of digital radio systems, regional communication centers, and artificial intelligence to improve inter-agency communication is recommended as an urgent and essential measure. In addition, training on the use of communication technologies is necessary to ensure that EMRS staff is adequately prepared for complex emergency situations, including disasters.
Conversely, the analysis of response times revealed significant variations compared to international standards, indicating the need for additional infrastructure investments and process optimization to reduce response times and improve patient outcomes. For these reasons, focusing on accelerating responses, training personnel, and expanding emergency medical assistance capacity is key to improving system performance.
In light of these findings, it is clearly recommended to establish new training centers and digital hubs for disaster response, as well as to introduce continuous education and specialized training for emergency personnel. Such training is especially significant in areas such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), trauma management, and other specialized medical fields. Through intensified cooperation with international agencies and the integration of simulation-based training, Serbia can increase the preparedness and resilience of its emergency medical response system in disaster situations. The results of this study provide a clear roadmap for policymakers, healthcare administrators, and EMRS personnel to define priorities for strategic interventions, strengthen the system, and achieve alignment with international standards, which would significantly improve the health and safety of Serbian citizens.
The conducted research has unequivocal scientific and societal implications in the area of emergency medical services improvement, as well as in disaster management and response. The scientific implications are reflected in enriching the existing literature in these fields and enhancing the understanding of key factors influencing the efficiency of emergency medical services (work organization, resource distribution, logistical challenges, etc.). A rich repository of data with empirical evidence is created, which can be used for comparison with other countries. Moreover, the study clearly identifies the need for standardization of procedures, protocols, and management within emergency medical services. This creates a foundation for future research on how standardization can contribute to improving response times and reducing regional disparities in access to such services. Additionally, through the use of statistical methods such as Pearson’s correlation, multivariate regression analysis, and chi-square tests, the study provides a methodological framework for further investigation into the organizational and operational aspects of emergency medical services.
Regarding societal implications, the study offers concrete recommendations for healthcare sector reform for policymakers in Serbia and other countries facing similar challenges. Certainly, the results contribute to creating recommendations for increasing the capacity of emergency services and improving response times in medical emergencies, directly affecting the health and safety of the population. The study also highlights the need for better coordination between different sectors, as well as for improving communication systems and logistical capacities. These proposed changes can enhance the resilience of communities in cases of emergencies, disasters, and mass accidents, contributing to the improvement of population safety.
Reference: Cvetković, Vladimir M., Jasmina Tanasić, Renate Renner, Vanja Rokvić, and Hatiža Beriša. 2024. “Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Emergency Medical Response Systems in Serbian Healthcare: Assessing Systemic Vulnerabilities in Disaster Preparedness and Response” Healthcare 12, no. 19: 1962. https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare12191962
Geospatial and Temporal Patterns of Natural and Man-Made (Technological) Disasters (1900–2024): Insights from Different Socio-Economic and Demographic Perspectives
Abstract: This pioneering study explores the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and human-induced disasters from 1900 to 2024, providing essential insights into their global distribution and impacts. Significant trends and disparities in disaster occurrences and their widespread consequences are revealed through the utilization of the comprehensive international EM-DAT database. The results showed a dramatic escalation in both natural and man-made (technological) disasters over the decades, with notable surges in the 1991–2000 and 2001–2010 periods. A total of 25,836 disasters were recorded worldwide, of which 69.41% were natural disasters (16,567) and 30.59% were man-made (technological) disasters (9269). The most significant increase in natural disasters occurred from 1961–1970, while man-made (technological) disasters surged substantially from 1981–1990. Seasonal trends reveal that floods peak in January and July, while storms are most frequent in June and October. Droughts and floods are the most devastating in terms of human lives, while storms and earthquakes cause the highest economic losses. The most substantial economic losses were reported during the 2001–2010 period, driven by catastrophic natural disasters in Asia and North America. Also, Asia was highlighted by our research as the most disaster-prone continent, accounting for 41.75% of global events, with 61.89% of these events being natural disasters. Oceania, despite experiencing fewer total disasters, shows a remarkable 91.51% of these as natural disasters. Africa is notable for its high incidence of man-made (technological) disasters, which constitute 43.79% of the continent’s disaster events. Europe, representing 11.96% of total disasters, exhibits a balanced distribution but tends towards natural disasters at 64.54%. Examining specific countries, China, India, and the United States emerged as the countries most frequently affected by both types of disasters. The impact of these disasters has been immense, with economic losses reaching their highest during the decade of 2010–2020, largely due to natural disasters. The human toll has been equally significant, with Asia recording the most fatalities and Africa the most injuries. Pearson’s correlation analysis identified statistically significant links between socioeconomic factors and the effects of disasters. It shows that nations with higher GDP per capita and better governance quality tend to experience fewer disasters and less severe negative consequences. These insights highlight the urgent need for tailored disaster risk management strategies that address the distinct challenges and impacts in various regions. By understanding historical disaster patterns, policymakers and stakeholders can better anticipate and manage future risks, ultimately safeguarding lives and economies.
Conclusion: The analysis of the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and man-made (technological) disasters from 1900 to 2024 provides significant insights into these events’ global distribution and impact. This research reveals that Asia is the most affected continent, with the highest number of disasters, indicating the need for robust risk mitigation strategies, particularly concerning seismic resilience and flood management. Africa faces a high percentage of man-made (technological) disasters, emphasizing the need for improved industrial safety and infrastructure, while natural disasters such as droughts are exacerbated by climate change. North America predominantly records natural disasters, particularly storms and wildfires, highlighting the importance of strengthening early warning systems and community resilience. Oceania, despite having the fewest total disasters, reports a high proportion of natural disasters due to its unique geographical characteristics. Europe shows a balanced distribution of natural and man-made (technological) disasters, underscoring the importance of adapting to climate change and maintaining high industrial safety standards. South America faces significant natural disasters such as floods and storms, alongside challenges related to industrial safety.
The temporal analysis indicates an increasing trend in disaster occurrences until the 2000s, followed by a decline in the last decade, possibly due to advancements in disaster risk management practices, improved early warning systems, and greater global awareness of disaster risks. Despite progress, the high frequency of certain disaster types, such as floods and technological accidents, indicates the need for continuous efforts in these areas. A detailed analysis of the consequences of natural and man-made (technological) disasters over five-year intervals provides significant insights into the evolution of these events’ impacts on human lives and economies. Natural disasters have consistently caused substantial fatalities and economic losses, while man-made (technological) disasters, initially less significant, have become more pronounced with industrialization and technological development. Recent trends show a reduction in fatalities from natural disasters, attributed to improved disaster management practices, early warning systems, and global initiatives aimed at reducing disaster risk.
Regarding the testing of the hypotheses, the first hypothesis was confirmed, as natural disasters accounted for 69.41% of the total number of disasters, causing greater economic losses and human casualties compared to man-made (technological) disasters. The second hypothesis was supported by significant geographical differences in the frequency and type of disasters, with Asia being the most affected continent and Africa having the highest percentage of man-made (technological) disasters. The third hypothesis was validated through the identification of significant temporal changes in disaster frequency, peaking in the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010, while the last decade saw a decline in the total number of events. The fourth hypothesis was proven by seasonal variations, with floods peaking in January and July, and storms being most frequent in June and October. Finally, the fifth hypothesis was confirmed, as different types of disasters had varying impacts on economic losses and human resources, with earthquakes and storms causing the greatest economic losses, while droughts and floods were the most deadly for human lives. These findings underscore the need for tailored disaster risk management strategies in different regions.
The Pearson correlation analysis underscores that socio-economic factors, particularly population density and urbanization rate, play a significant role in influencing the distribution and consequences of disasters, including the number of deaths, injuries, and natural disasters. Higher population density is linked to a greater number of individuals affected, while higher urbanization rates and better governance are associated with a reduction in the overall number of disasters, deaths, and injuries. These insights emphasize the importance of considering socio-economic contexts in disaster risk management, highlighting the need for tailored strategies to enhance community resilience.
This study contributes to the understanding of the global distribution and impact of natural and man-made (technological) disasters through a historical context. It provides a foundation for further research in disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly in the context of climate change and urbanization. Identifying specific geographical and socio-economic factors contributing to the frequency and severity of disasters can help develop theoretical models and predictive tools for risk management. This study’s results can serve as a reference point for future quantitative and qualitative analyses exploring the effectiveness of various DRR strategies and policies.
The findings have direct implications for policymakers and practitioners in disaster risk management. It is recommended that countries with high natural disaster risks, such as China, India, and the USA, focus efforts on strengthening infrastructure resilience, improving early warning systems, and enhancing emergency response plans. For regions with high man-made disaster risks, such as Nigeria and Egypt, improving industrial safety, regulatory frameworks, and emergency response capacities is crucial. This study highlights the need for integrated approaches that combine natural and technological risk management. It is recommended to develop comprehensive strategies encompassing prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, focusing on reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing community resilience to disasters. Additionally, implementing educational programs and raising public awareness about disaster risks can significantly contribute to reducing the negative impacts of these events.
Reference: Cvetković, V. M., Renner, R., Aleksova, B., & Lukić, T. (2024). Geospatial and Temporal Patterns of Natural and Man-Made (Technological) Disasters (1900–2024): Insights from Different Socio-Economic and Demographic Perspectives. Applied Sciences, 14(18), 8129. Retrieved from https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/14/18/8129.
Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index
Abstract: This study presents a comprehensive analysis of flash flood susceptibility in the Kratovska Reka catchment area of Northeastern North Macedonia, integrating Geographic Information System, remote sensing, and field survey data. Key factors influencing flash flood dynamics, including Slope, Lithology, Land use, and Vegetation index, were investigated to develop the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Mapping slope variation using a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) revealed higher slopes in eastern tributaries compared to western counterparts. Lithological units were classified based on susceptibility to erosion processes, with clastic sediments identified as most prone to flash floods. Land use analysis highlighted non-irrigated agricultural surfaces and areas with sparse vegetation as highly susceptible. Integration of these factors into the FFPI model provided insights into flash flood susceptibility, with results indicating a medium risk across the catchment. The average value of the FFPI is 1.9, considering that the values range from 1 to 5. Also, terrains susceptible to flash floods were found to be 49.34%, classified as medium risk. Field survey data validated the model, revealing a significant overlap between hotspot areas for flash floods and high-risk regions identified by the FFPI. An average FFPI coefficient was calculated for each tributary (sub-catchment) of the Kratovska Reka. According to the model, Latišnica had the highest average coefficient of susceptibility to potential flash floods, with a value of 2.16. These findings offer valuable insights for spatial planning and flood risk management, with implications for both local and national-scale applications. Future research directions include incorporating machine learning techniques to enhance modeling accuracy and reduce subjectivity in assigning weighting factors.
Conclusion: As mentioned earlier, it was observed that in an area identified as highly prone to flash flooding by FFPI, actual occurrences of flash floods were infrequent, which aligns with expectations based on the gathered data. This suggests that the findings from this section may not accurately represent the real situation, where extreme flash flooding is anticipated. This FFPI model incorporates additional variables such as Slope, Lithology, Land Use, and Vegetation Index. Previous studies have mainly focused on areas within river catchments where natural flash floods occur, which differs from the focus of this study. The study area is situated in a region where floods are predominantly caused by human activities, termed as urban flash floods. Infrastructure like drainage systems significantly influences urban flash floods. The absence of critical factors in this study may have impacted the outcomes. Precipitation is also vital to consider since prolonged and heavy rainfall typically triggers flash floods by elevating storm water levels.
Because of its intensity and spatial distribution, precipitation represents one of the most essential flash flood conditioning validation factors. Integration of WorldClim 2 precipitation data [40] with historical flood observations was conducted to enhance flood risk assessment. Thus, according to Aleksova et al. [7], intense and heavy rainfall often leads to the overflowing of the Kratovska Reka from its riverbed and the occurrence of flash floods. In summary, precipitation, especially heavy and intense precipitation, plays a central role in the validation of flash flood hotspot areas. The yearly precipitation in the catchment averages around 728.4 mm, peaking in May and November and dropping to a low in August. Approximately 57% of the annual precipitation occurs during the vegetation period, with spring and autumn receiving the most rainfall. Only about 9% of days see heavy rainfall exceeding 20.0 mm, with the possibility of reaching up to 110 mm per day. In winter, snow blankets the upper catchment, melting quickly in spring. To validate flash flood risks, intense rainfall data are crucial. However, lacking a pluviometry station in the area, we employed GIS Remote Sensing modeling and geospatial analysis. By overlaying average precipitation data with hotspot zones of historical data, we found that high-risk areas typically receive 700–750 mm of precipitation. The studies [38,61] on hazard areas in the catchment also validate this result. Although average rainfall alone isn’t sufficient to forecast flash floods, it often coincides with areas experiencing lower average rainfall. This implies that regions with reduced rainfall typically have less vegetation and a slower recuperation from geohazards. Furthermore, factors such as geological composition, and historical deforestation over the past century increase erosion risks. The sub-catchment Latišnica (marked by a dashed line; Figure 12) has most of the hotspot areas in the whole catchment.
The FFPI is a model that provides an index ranging from 1 to 10, and given that the Kratovska Reka catchment’s FFPI is at 49.34% for an index value of 5, which is the median, it can be classified as being at medium risk for flash floods. While the results are not entirely satisfactory, they do demonstrate the potential given that the primary factors have been considered. By incorporating an additional factor, such as the Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Topographic Position Index (TPI), and Soil Index, more reasonable results may be obtained [32]. Furthermore, future research could integrate the Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) Method to enhance the robustness of the analysis [62]. Given changes in both natural and human-influenced factors, it’s advisable to establish a monitoring and control system to oversee ground conditions [63]. New technologies enable detailed surface data collection, which, when processed through GIS, can be used to create predictive models. Such analysis is crucial for hazard prevention or mitigation, forming a vital part of spatial analysis [18]. However, the FFPI index overlooks factors like riverbed debris, landslides, and climate change impacts, necessitating comprehensive analyses with high-quality datasets and multiple methods to compare results. Despite each method having its pros and cons, employing various approaches can enhance effectiveness in assessing flash flood risks. It’s essential to select the most suitable method for each situation to optimize solutions for the problem at hand.
Obtaining and analyzing the databases is straightforward, facilitated by both proprietary and open-source software accessible to spatial analysis professionals. The model introduced in this research could serve as a valuable approach for spatial planning endeavors, offering practical insights for land management and aiding local authorities in flash flood risk reduction efforts [34]. The methodology devised in this study is applicable across various contexts and can be implemented on a national scale within any river catchment. This is particularly relevant given the dynamic nature of land use and the rising occurrence of extreme weather events [22]. To mitigate the detrimental impacts of flash floods, it’s crucial to identify and enact protective measures using a blend of GIS technology and on-site investigation. Collaborative efforts between local government bodies, alongside provincial and national services, can allocate resources for the deployment of biological and biotechnical interventions. These measures aim to substantially decrease the risk of severe torrential flooding in affected areas [10].
The combination of GIS and remote sensing has resulted in a potent tool for investigating and evaluating the potential for flash floods. The findings obtained through the FFPI method accurately reflect the risk of flash floods in the study area. This serves as a scientific foundation for managing natural resources at the local level [33]. Higher resolution historical data are needed for ROC curve analysis to quantitatively evaluate the flash flood model’s accuracy. Standardizing and implementing other methodologies would enhance the monitoring and identification of natural hazards in North Macedonia on local and regional levels. This underscores the need for developing vulnerability assessments and management programs in southeastern Europe [24]. Also, understanding the barriers restraining the effective operation of flood early warning systems is crucial for improving disaster preparedness, minimizing loss of life and property, and enhancing community resilience to flood events [64].
For future research is relevant to incorporate machine learning methods to determine individual parameters’ influence on flash flood occurrences more precisely [65]. These enhancements will enable more accurate susceptibility modeling, reducing subjectivity in assigning weighting factors and increasing the relevance of results for the specific regional area.
Reference: Aleksova, B., Milevski, I., Mijalov, R., Marković, S., Cvetković, V. & Lukić, T. (2024). Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220684. https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0684
Comprehensive Risk and Efficacy Analysis of Emergency Medical Response Systems in Serbian Healthcare: Assessing Systemic Vulnerabilities in Disaster Preparedness and Response
Abstract: Emergency Medical Response Systems (EMRS) play a vital role in delivering medical aid during disasters. In Serbia, these systems encounter several obstacles due to economic limitations, scarce resources, and ongoing healthcare reforms, all of which affect their performance. This study focuses on examining the risk factors and effectiveness of Serbia’s EMRS, identifying systemic issues, and proposing enhancements to improve emergency preparedness for disasters. A survey was conducted across healthcare institutions in Serbia to gather comprehensive insights. The survey explored various aspects, including organizational structures, resource distribution, communication systems, and the speed of emergency responses. Statistical methods such as Pearson’s correlation, multivariate regression analysis and chi-square tests were utilized to interpret data collected from 172 healthcare institutions. The multivariate regression analysis of EMS organization identified that factors such as the structuring of working hours and shift patterns are significant predictors, contributing to small but meaningful variations in various EMS outcomes. In contrast, other factors, such as financial resources and the availability of ambulance vehicles, showed more targeted significance depending on the specific EMS aspect being analyzed. Institutions with written mass casualty plans and procedures demonstrate superior effectiveness in EMS activities, excelling in resource allocation, operational continuity, and emergency preparedness, particularly through enhanced coordination and specialized systems for managing large-scale emergencies. The findings highlighted notable disparities in how EMRS are organized, with only 46% of institutions having specific emergency departments. Resource limitations were evident, as many facilities operated with minimal staff and outdated equipment. The communication systems revealed weaknesses, with just 54% having established protocols for handling emergency calls. Response times frequently surpassed international standards, which negatively affected patient outcomes. Additionally, the study found training deficiencies, with 68% of participants expressing a need for further education. Serbia’s EMRS are significantly impacted by systemic issues such as insufficient funding, disjointed service delivery, and inadequate training. Overcoming these challenges necessitates a comprehensive approach that includes boosting financial support, implementing standardized protocols, and fostering enhanced collaboration across different sectors.
Conclusion: The analysis of Emergency Medical Response Systems (EMRS) in Serbian healthcare paints a picture of a system with both strengths and areas needing attention. This study pulls together key findings, giving us a full view of how things currently stand and offering ways to make improvements. When we look at how EMRS is organized in Serbia, there’s a lot of variation. This diversity comes from the country’s unique historical and economic shifts. Many emergency services operate within specialized departments in health centers, which helps focus on managing emergency care effectively. However, some are set up as independent units or are part of general medical services, showing that there’s a mix in how services are delivered. This variety highlights the need for standardized procedures and centralized management to boost coordination and efficiency. Even though there have been efforts to match European standards, challenges like outdated infrastructure, not enough staff, and logistical hurdles still slow down quick responses. This study emphasizes the need to establish clear operational guidelines, improve communication systems, and adopt evidence-based procedures to tackle these issues. By fostering cooperation between different agencies and regions, Serbia can better manage risks and address unequal access to emergency care. The study also finds significant gaps in resource distribution, with many emergency facilities struggling with minimal staff and outdated equipment. Reliance on the National Health Insurance Fund (RFZO) as the main funding source highlights financial constraints. Meanwhile, municipal budgets and self-generated revenue contribute less, pointing to a need for more varied funding approaches. To improve service delivery, conducting targeted resource audits and setting up funds for state-of-the-art EMS equipment are crucial. Deploying mobile resource units and forming strategic partnerships with technology providers can enhance resource distribution and ensure underserved areas get the support they need. Sharing resources among EMS agencies can further optimize usage and improve efficiency. Effective communication is key to a coordinated emergency response, yet the study finds significant gaps in this area. The absence of standardized communication protocols and limited direct links to crucial emergency services, like the police and alert centers, hinder efficient responses. While mobile phones are increasingly used for field communication, the lack of backup channels poses risks during outages. Upgrading to digital radio systems, setting up regional communication centers, and investing in AI-driven communication tools are recommended to improve coordination and responsiveness. Training programs on communication technologies can also help equip EMS personnel with the skills needed to handle complex emergency scenarios. Analyzing response times reveals variability, with some services exceeding international benchmarks. While some services can respond within an hour, delays in activation and reaction times point to inefficiencies. Improving these times requires streamlined processes and infrastructure upgrades. Strategies for rapid deployment, infrastructure improvements, and expanding emergency medical facilities are essential for reducing response times and improving patient outcomes. Performance tracking and data analytics can provide valuable insights, allowing targeted interventions to address bottlenecks. Training and preparedness are crucial for effective disaster response, yet gaps in training access and specialized programs remain. Continuous education and advanced training for EMS personnel, particularly in CPR, trauma management, and specialized medical fields, are necessary. Establishing new training centers and digital hubs for disaster response can help disseminate knowledge and develop skills. Collaborating with international agencies and integrating simulation-based training can enhance readiness and resilience in disaster scenarios. Financial constraints and administrative inefficiencies pose significant challenges to the sustainability of EMS. Reliance on national and municipal funding highlights the need for strategic financial planning and resource optimization. Streamlining administrative processes and developing financial partnerships can reduce overhead and improve efficiency. Big data analytics can help predict funding needs and optimize resource allocation. Securing more governmental and international support is crucial for advancing EMS capabilities. Serbia’s Emergency Medical Response Systems face a range of challenges, including organizational diversity, resource constraints, communication gaps, and variable response times. Addressing these requires a comprehensive approach that includes policy changes, organizational improvements, and operational interventions. Standardizing protocols, enhancing communication systems, optimizing resource allocation, and investing in training and infrastructure are vital steps toward improving EMRS effectiveness and resilience. By leveraging technology and fostering collaboration, Serbia can enhance its emergency medical services and ensure all citizens have access to timely and effective care in emergencies.
These findings offer a roadmap for policymakers, healthcare administrators, and EMS personnel to prioritize strategic interventions and build a robust emergency medical response system. With concerted efforts and sustained investment, Serbia can align its EMS with international standards, improving health and safety for its population.
Reference: Cvetković, V. M., Tanasić, J., Renner, R., Raupenstrauch, H., Rokvić, V., & Beriša, H. (2024). Comprehensive Risk and Efficacy Analysis of Emergency Medical Response Systems in Serbian Healthcare: Assessing Systemic Vulnerabilities in Disaster Preparedness and Response. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1294.v1
Geospatial and Temporal Patterns of Natural and Man-made (Technological) Disasters (1900-2024): Insights from Different Perspectives
Abstract: This pioneering study explores the geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and human-induced disasters from 1900 to 2024, providing essential insights into their global distribution and impacts. Utilizing the comprehensive international EM-DAT database, our analysis reveals significant trends and disparities in disaster occurrences and their widespread consequences. Results showed a dramatic escalation in both natural and man-made (technological) disasters over the decades, with notable surges in the 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 periods. A total of 25,836 disasters were recorded worldwide, of which 69.41% were natural disasters (16,567) and 30.59% were man-made (technological) disasters (9,269). The most significant increase in natural disasters occurred from 1961-1970, while man-made (technological) disasters surged substantially from 1981-1990. Seasonal trends reveal that floods peak in January and July, while storms are most frequent in June and October. Droughts and floods are the most devastating in terms of human lives, while storms and earthquakes cause the highest economic losses. The most substantial economic losses were reported during the 2001-2010 period, driven by catastrophic natural disasters in Asia and North America. Our research highlights Asia as the most disaster-prone continent, accounting for 41.75% of global events, with natural disasters making up 61.89% of these events. Oceania, despite experiencing fewer total disasters, shows a remarkable 91.51% of these as natural disasters. Africa is notable for its high incidence of man-made (technological) disasters, which constitute 43.79% of the continent’s disaster events. Europe, representing 11.96% of total disasters, exhibits a balanced distribution but tends towards natural disasters at 64.54%. Examining specific countries, China, India, and the United States emerged as the most frequently affected by both natural and man-made (technological) disasters. The impact of these disasters has been immense, with economic losses reaching their highest during the decade of 2010-2020, largely due to natural disasters. The human toll has been equally significant, with Asia recording the most fatalities and Africa the most injuries. Particularly, the decade from 2001 to 2010 experienced the greatest economic losses, primarily driven by natural disasters in Asia and North America. These insights highlight the urgent need for tailored disaster risk management strategies that address the distinct challenges and impacts in various regions. By understanding historical disaster patterns, policymakers and stakeholders can better anticipate and manage future risks, ultimately safeguarding lives and economies.
Conclusion: The analysis of geospatial and temporal patterns of natural and man-made (technological) disasters from 1900 to 2024 provides significant insights into these events’ global distribution and impact. The research reveals that Asia is the most affected continent, with the highest number of disasters, indicating the need for robust risk mitigation strategies, particularly concerning seismic resilience and flood management. Africa faces a high percentage of man-made (technological) disasters, emphasizing the need for improved industrial safety and infrastructure, while natural disasters such as droughts are exacerbated by climate change. North America predominantly records natural disasters, particularly storms and wildfires, highlighting the importance of strengthening early warning systems and community resilience. Oceania, despite having the fewest total disasters, reports a high proportion of natural disasters due to its unique geographical characteristics. Europe shows a balanced distribution of natural and man-made (technological) disasters, underscoring the importance of adapting to climate change and maintaining high industrial safety standards. South America faces significant natural disasters such as floods and storms, alongside challenges related to industrial safety. Temporal analysis indicates an increasing trend in disaster occurrences until the 2000s, followed by a decline in the last decade, possibly due to advancements in disaster risk management practices, improved early warning systems, and greater global awareness of disaster risks. Despite progress, the high frequency of certain disaster types, such as floods and technological accidents, indicates the need for continuous efforts in these areas. A detailed analysis of the consequences of natural and man-made (technological) disasters over five-year intervals provides significant insights into the evolution of these events’ impacts on human lives and economies. Natural disasters have consistently caused substantial fatalities and economic losses, while man-made (technological) disasters, initially less significant, have become more pronounced with industrialisation and technological development. Recent trends show a reduction in fatalities from natural disasters, attributed to improved disaster management practices, early warning systems, and global initiatives aimed at reducing disaster risk.
Regarding the testing of hypotheses, the first hypothesis was confirmed, as natural disasters accounted for 69.41% of the total number of disasters, causing greater economic losses and human casualties compared to technical disasters. The second hypothesis was supported by significant geographical differences in the frequency and type of disasters, with Asia being the most affected continent, and Africa having the highest percentage of technical disasters. The third hypothesis was validated through the identification of significant temporal changes in disaster frequency, peaking in the periods 1990-2000 and 2000-2010, while the last decade saw a decline in the total number of events. The fourth hypothesis was proven by seasonal variations, with floods peaking in January and July, and storms being most frequent in June and October. Finally, the fifth hypothesis was confirmed as different types of disasters had varying impacts on economic losses and human resources, with earthquakes and storms causing the greatest economic losses, while droughts and floods were the most deadly for human lives. These findings underscore the need for tailored disaster risk management strategies in different regions. This study contributes to the understanding of the global distribution and impact of natural and man-made (technological) disasters through a historical context. It provides a foundation for further research in disaster risk reduction (DRR), particularly in the context of climate change and urbanization. Identifying specific geographical and socio-economic factors contributing to the frequency and severity of disasters can help develop theoretical models and predictive tools for risk management. The study’s results can serve as a reference point for future quantitative and qualitative analyses exploring the effectiveness of various DRR strategies and policies.
The findings have direct implications for policymakers and practitioners in disaster risk management. It is recommended that countries with high natural disaster risks, such as China, India, and the USA, focus efforts on strengthening infrastructure resilience, improving early warning systems, and enhancing emergency response plans. For regions with high man-made disaster risks, such as Nigeria and Egypt, improving industrial safety, regulatory frameworks, and emergency response capacities is crucial. The study highlights the need for integrated approaches that combine natural and technological risk management. It is recommended to develop comprehensive strategies encompassing prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, focusing on reducing vulnerabilities and enhancing community resilience to disasters. Additionally, implementing educational programs and raising public awareness about disaster risks can significantly contribute to reducing the negative impacts of these events.
Reference: Cvetković, V. M.; Renner, R.; Lukić, T.; Aleksova, B. Geospatial and Temporal Patterns of Natural and Man-made (Technological) Disasters (1900-2024): Insights from Different Perspectives. Preprints 2024, 2024080175. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.0175.v1
Exploring Environmental Awareness, Knowledge, and Safety: A Comparative Study among Students in Montenegro and North Macedonia
Abstract: This comparative study aims to investigate environmental awareness, knowledge, and safety among students in Montenegro and North Macedonia, considering the unique socio-cultural and environmental contexts of both countries. A mixed-methods approach involving surveys and interviews was employed to gather data from students in educational institutions across Montenegro and North Macedonia. The study assessed various factors, including students’ awareness of environmental issues, their perceived level of knowledge, and their attitudes towards safety measures. A comprehensive series of 400 face-to-face interviews was carried out and these interviews encompassed 200 students from Montenegro and an equal number from North Macedonia, taking place at two esteemed academic institutions: The University of Montenegro in Podgorica and The University of St. Clement of Ohrid, Bitola, Republic of North Macedonia. Our hypothetical conceptual framework proposes that a combination of variables, including gender (H1), age (H2), year of study (H3), and rate of study (H4), significantly influences the attitudes of students from Montenegro and North Macedonia towards environmental awareness, safety, and knowledge. Research findings indicate significant variations in environmental awareness and knowledge perception among students in the two countries. While both Montenegro and North Macedonia face environmental challenges, differences in educational systems and socio-economic factors contribute to distinct attitudes and behaviors towards environmental issues and safety practices. This study sheds light on the importance of understanding regional differences in environmental awareness and knowledge perception among students. By identifying areas of strength and areas needing improvement, policymakers and educators can develop targeted interventions to enhance environmental education and foster a culture of sustainability in both Montenegro and North Macedonia.
Conclusion: In this comparative study, we have identified key areas where environmental education can be enhanced to better address the challenges of environmental sustainability in both countries. The findings suggest that while students possess a strong foundational awareness of biodiversity and the importance of environmentally responsible behavior, there are significant variances in their understanding of other crucial environmental practices, such as waste reduction and resource management. The study reveals a need for more comprehensive curricula that not only educate but also equip students with the practical skills necessary for fostering sustainable environmental practices. There is a clear call for educational programs that are tailored to address specific gaps in awareness and that integrate a broader range of influences, including cultural, psychological, and contextual factors. Such tailored approaches can help bridge the identified gaps, enhance the effectiveness of environmental education, and promote a robust environmental awareness across diverse student populations. Moreover, the findings underscore the importance of policy interventions and targeted educational enhancements to address disparities in environmental knowledge. This could include revising educational frameworks to include more focused initiatives on recycling, waste management, and the broader implications of environmental degradation. By doing so, both Montenegro and North Macedonia can bolster their overall sustainability efforts and foster a more uniform understanding of environmental issues among students. As environmental challenges such as climate change continue to gain global importance, the study highlights the necessity for nations to prioritize environmental education and workforce development. This involves not only specialized training but also adopting interdisciplinary approaches that integrate environmental education across various sectors of governance and community involvement. This study advocates for an integrated approach involving educational enhancements, policy reforms, and international cooperation to effectively tackle environmental issues. By investing in human capital and enhancing institutional capacities to align with international environmental standards, Montenegro and North Macedonia can lead by example in promoting sustainable devel-opment and environmental stewardship at both national and global levels.
Given the significance and intricacy of environmental concerns, coupled with their global relevance and the collective efforts underway, it’s natural to anticipate that environmental knowledge should evolve in tandem with global developments. As conservation efforts and the safeguarding of natural resources assume a prominent role on the international stage, it’s imperative for every nation to engage in a unified approach towards environmental preservation across all pertinent sectors. Environmental literacy emerges as a pivotal factor in addressing key aspects such as nature conservation, resource management, and climate change mitigation. Each country and economy, tailored to its capacities, must contribute to cultivating specialized expertise and human capital to effectively address these pressing issues. This necessitates swift adaptations within educational frameworks, offering avenues for further training and adopting an integrative approach essential for navigating the complexities of environmental protection and climate change. The ad-vancement of human capital and institutional capacity should unfold in two key dimen-sions: a) specialized training and skill development in targeted fields, underscored by an appreciation for interdisciplinary problem-solving approaches, and b) enhancement of governmental administrative structures tasked with enacting and aligning domestic legis-lation with international standards, alongside robust oversight of environmental protection laws, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration and active engagement from both economic stakeholders and local communities. Considering the global nature of environmental issues and the increasing complexity of challenges like climate change, it’s imperative that nations prioritize environmental education and workforce development. This entails not only specialized training but also the integration of interdisciplinary approaches. Furthermore, governments must enhance their administrative capacities to align domestic policies with international standards, ensuring effective implementation and enforcement. By investing in both human capital and institutional frameworks, countries can collectively tackle environmental protection and sustainable development in a more comprehensive and impactful manner.
Reference: Cvetković, V., Sudar, S., Ivanov, A., Lukić, T. & Grozdanić, G. (2024). Exploring environmental awareness, knowledge, and safety: A comparative study among students in Montenegro and North Macedonia. Open Geosciences, 16(1), 20220669. https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0669
Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia
Abstract:Integrated disaster risk reduction in schools represents a key component of safety strategies within the educational sector of every country. In this study, a series of 850 face-to-face interviews (650 with students and 200 with teachers) were conducted throughout 2023 in 10 out of the total 18 municipalities in the Western Morava Basin of the Republic of Serbia. The paper proposes two central hypotheses regarding school-based disaster risk reduction. Firstly, it suggests that gender, age, parent’s employment, academic achievement, living situation, paternal and maternal education levels, and engagement with social media collectively influence students’ perspectives on this matter. Secondly, it posits that gender, age, marital status, parenthood, and educational background significantly impact teachers’ viewpoints on school-based disaster risk reduction. Multivariate linear regression was used to explore predictors of students’ and teachers’ insights on school-based disaster risk reduction. Various statistical tests including Chi-square, t-tests, one-way ANOVA, and Pearson’s correlation were employed to investigate the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on these insights. The results of multivariate regression analyses indicate that age, gender and marital emerge as the primary predictors across various facets of students’ and teachers’ insights on school-based disaster risk reduction (awareness of disasters, disaster education activities, attitudes on disaster risk reduction education, enhancement of disaster information accessibility, etc). The results of this study provide insight into the key factors influencing students’ and teachers’ perceptions of disaster risk reduction in schools. As such, they can serve as a basis for improving educational programs, developing policies and strategies, normative educational frameworks, teacher training, and further research in disaster education.
Conclusion: In this paper, we present insights from a quantitative study examining the collective influence of demographic and socio-economic factors on students’ perceptions and teachers’ attitudes toward school-based disaster risk reduction. The findings highlight the importance of age, gender, and marital status as significant predictors affecting various aspects of disaster risk reduction perceptions among both students and teachers. Overall, teachers demonstrate a strong commitment to disaster preparedness and express a desire to actively involve students in disaster risk reduction initiatives. They recognize the importance of collaboration between schools and relevant authorities and organizations in advancing disaster education and risk reduction efforts. Teachers prioritize instructional units related to disaster risk reduction within the curriculum, emphasizing the integration of disaster education into broader educational goals such as environmental education and sustainability. They value practical activities such as drills and disaster simulations in improving disaster preparedness among students. Additionally, differences in attitudes and practices among teachers based on their education and marital status were identified. On the other hand, it was found that the majority of students primarily use internet searches as the main source of information on disasters, while social media and video games are significantly less utilized for this purpose. Family discussions and mass media are also mentioned as significant sources of information. Regarding collaboration between schools, professional institutions, and parents in disaster education, the results indicate a lack of such collaboration, although there is general awareness of certain types of disasters. Moreover, epidemics were found to be the most recognized among respondents, while accidents such as fires were the least recognized. Regarding attitudes toward the introduction of disaster-related subjects into the curriculum, a significant number of respondents consider it unnecessary. Lastly, differences in attitudes and perceptions among students of different age groups and academic achievement levels were identified. Based on the extensive array of recommendations provided, it is evident that a comprehensive approach to disaster risk reduction education is essential for fostering resilience within communities.
The findings underscore the imperative for schools to not only integrate disater risk reduction into their curricula but also to actively engage with various stakeholders to ensure effective implementation. Collaboration with disaster risk reduction entities, including intervention and rescue services, non-governmental organizations, and local government representatives, emerges as a key strategy for transferring knowledge and resources. Incorporating disaster themes into existing subjects, promoting online resources for education, and conducting practical exercises such as evacuation drills are crucial steps towards enhancing students’ understanding and readiness for disaster response. Moreover, empowering students to participate in the development of disaster protection plans fosters personal responsibility and risk awareness. Teacher education and training are paramount in ensuring the effective delivery of disaster risk reduction education, including topics such as first aid and student safety during disasters. Additionally, initiatives to ensure inclusivity in preparedness processes and to address the diverse needs of students are fundamental for equitable resilience-building efforts. Allocating sufficient budgetary resources for modern equipment, materials, and educational programs underscores the commitment to prioritizing DRR within the educational framework. Moreover, promoting local initiatives, forming support networks, and leveraging innovative approaches are vital for sustaining momentum in DRR education beyond the school curriculum. By embracing these recommendations, educational institutions can play a pivotal role in nurturing a culture of safety and resilience, thereby contributing to the overall well-being and sustainability of communities in the face of disasters. Therefore, the results emphasize the significance of comprehensive disaster preparedness initiatives in schools and underscore the need for tailored approaches that consider the diverse attitudes, experiences, and backgrounds of teachers. Implementing effective disaster education programs requires collaboration, proactive engagement, and ongoing professional development among teachers to ensure the safety and well-being of students and the broader school community. Further research in this area is crucial to inform evidence-based practices and policy recommendations aimed at strengthening disaster resilience in educational institutions. The scientific significance of this research lies in investigating the collective impact of demographic and socio-economic factors on students’ perceptions and teachers’ attitudes towards school-based disaster risk reduction. By analyzing these factors, the study provides valuable insights into the dynamics shaping attitudes and preparedness for disaster management within educational environments. This research contributes to the advancement of knowledge and practices in the field of disaster risk reduction education by providing insights into the complex interaction of factors shaping perceptions and attitudes within educational environments. By emphasizing the importance of collaboration, inclusivity, and tailored approaches, the study informs evidence-based practices aimed at strengthening resilience and ensuring the safety and well-being of communities in the face of disasters. Further research in this area is crucial for refining strategies and policies to enhance resilience to disasters in educational institutions.
Reference: Cvetković, V.M.; Nikolić, N.; Lukić, T. Exploring Students’ and Teachers’ Insights on School-Based Disaster Risk Reduction and Safety: A Case Study of Western Morava Basin, Serbia. Preprints 2024, 2024040472. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202404.0472.v1
Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Analysis in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia
Abstract:Authorities and governmental bodies strongly emphasize the importance of residents preparing for natural disasters, particularly underscoring the significance of readiness for geophysical hazards like earthquakes. In this study, which represents comparative quantitative research, the levels and predictors of the impact on preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters in South-Eastern European countries such as Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia are examined. Using the snowball sampling technique (online questionnaire), a survey of 1245 respondents (Montenegro (n = 400), North Macedonia (n = 345), and Serbia (n = 500) was conducted from February 2023 to February 2024. The paper is based on the central hypothesis that the most significant predictor of earthquake preparedness in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia is age, followed by education and gender. Multivariate regression analysis was used to determine the extent to which five scores of the subscales (household preparedness, community preparedness, disaster preparation, earthquake risk awareness, and reinforced house) were associated with seventh demographic and socio-economic variables. In addition to the mentioned analysis, other statistical analyses such as t-test, one-way ANOVA analysis, and Pearson correlation were also utilized. The results indicate that age emerges as a predictor in various aspects of earthquake-induced disaster preparedness and awareness in most models, followed by education and gender. These findings confirm the significance of respondents’ age in determining levels of preparedness and earthquake awareness. Overall, in North Macedonia, respondents recorded the highest ratings (M = 3.52) for household preparedness for earthquakes, compared to Serbia (M = 3.26) and Montenegro (M = 2.98), where the lower ratings were recorded. Research findings, taking into account cultural characteristics, can serve as a basis for the development of targeted interventions, strategies, policies, and programs aimed at improving the level of societal preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters.
Conclusion: The conducted research in the three countries (Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) has provided valuable insights into the levels and influencing factors of preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters. The obtained results indicated various variations regarding the implemented safety preventive measures, possession of supplies, shelters, connectivity, and fire safety. Respondents from North Macedonia stood out with high ratings of household readiness for earthquakes, while respondents from Serbia exhibited greater concern and better preparedness regarding fire safety measures. In contrast, respondents from Montenegro showed lower scores in various categories, suggesting the need for enhancing awareness and preparedness for disasters in that country.
The research has found that the age of the respondents is the most significant predictor of citizens’ preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. It has been determined that as the age of the respondents increases, the rating of household and community preparedness for earthquakes decreases. Additionally, education emerges as the second most significant predictor, highlighting the importance of education in enhancing preparedness, raising awareness, and providing necessary information about earthquakes. The complex interaction between age and perception of earthquake preparedness reveals that as respondents age, the perception of preparedness of their households and communities for earthquakes decreases. However, with increasing age, respondents demonstrate increased awareness of potential house damage due to earthquakes, as well as increased awareness of the needs of vulnerable groups such as the elderly, people with disabilities, and infants. Additionally, the research indicates concerning trends regarding the existence of designated shelters in the surveyed countries, suggesting potential shortcomings in shelter infrastructure and an urgent need for improvement to ensure residents’ safety during disasters. The analysis of reinforced houses revealed that gender was the most significant predictor, followed by education and employment. These findings emphasize the importance of gender in influencing the likelihood of having reinforced houses, with education and employment status also playing notable roles. Further analyses revealed that female participants tend to perceive lower community preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters compared to males, while males perceive higher levels of earthquake-resistant house reinforcement compared to females. Additionally, females communicate more extensively with neighbours about earthquake-induced disasters compared to males. Identification of factors influencing disaster preparedness, such as age, education, and gender, provides a basis for the development of more effective strategies for disaster prevention and response. Identification of deficiencies in existing disaster preparedness systems enables decision-makers to allocate resources and develop programs to improve disaster response and reduce the risk to the population. This research can also serve as a basis for educating the public about the importance of disaster preparedness and encourage collective efforts to build more resilient communities. The study provides a deeper understanding of the factors influencing disaster preparedness in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, particularly focusing on earthquake-induced disasters. This understanding can inform future research aimed at exploring the nuances of preparedness in different socio-economic and demographic contexts. In general, the wealth of data on citizen preparedness in different countries, such as Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, provides valuable insights for decision-makers, first responders, and local communities in the process of developing targeted interventions, strategies, and programs aimed at enhancing societal safety in such circumstances. By highlighting clear predictors and factors and offering specific explanations of their correlation with preparedness, decision-makers and other stakeholders can improve the resilience of local communities and reduce the direct and indirect impacts of such events on people and their infrastructure. The identified differences in household preparedness ratings among the countries covered by the study have significant implications for disaster management authorities and policymakers. Firstly, there is a need for tailored disaster preparedness initiatives that take into account specific socio-economic and demographic factors influencing preparedness levels in each country. Additionally, such differences in preparedness ratings underscore potential areas of vulnerability to such disasters within each country’s population. Identifying regions or demographic groups with lower levels of preparedness enables authorities to prioritize resource allocation and intervention efforts to address these gaps and mitigate the impact of future disasters. Furthermore, comparing household preparedness ratings between countries can facilitate the exchange of knowledge and best practices among disaster management authorities. In essence, the differences in household preparedness ratings emphasize the importance of targeted, evidence-based policies and interventions in improving overall disaster preparedness and response capabilities in the countries covered by the study. Research findings, taking into account cultural characteristics, can serve as a basis for the development of targeted interventions, strategies, policies, and programs aimed at improving the level of societal preparedness for earthquake-induced disasters.
Reference: Grozdanić, G., Cvetković, V. M., Lukić, T., & Ivanov, A. (2024). Sustainable Earthquake Preparedness: A Cross-Cultural Comparative Analysis in Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Sustainability, 16(8), 3138. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/8/3138
Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts
Abstract: This paper presents the results of quantitative research examining the impacts of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community disaster resilience. The survey was carried out utilizing a questionnaire distributed to, and subsequently collected online from, 321 participants during January 2024. The study employed an adapted version of the ‘5S’ social resilience framework (62 indicators), encompassing five sub-dimensions-social structure, social capital, social mechanisms, social equity and diversity, and social belief. To explore the relationship between predictors and the sustainable development of community disaster resilience in Serbia, various statistical methods, such as t-tests, one-way ANOVA, Pearson’s correlation, and multivariate linear regression, were used. The results of the multivariate regressions across various community disaster resilience subscales indicate that age emerged as the most significant predictor for the social structure subscale. At the same time, education stood out as the primary predictor for the social capital subscale. Additionally, employment status proved to be the most influential predictor for both social mechanisms and social equity-diversity subscales, with property ownership being the key predictor for the social beliefs subscale. The findings can be used to create strategies and interventions aimed at enhancing the sustainable development of resilience in communities in Serbia by addressing the intricate interplay between demographic characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and their ability to withstand, adapt to, and recover from different disasters.
Conclusion: This paper presents findings from a quantitative study investigating the influence of demographic and socioeconomic factors on the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience. A multivariate regression analysis identified age, education, employment status, and property ownership as predictors across different sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience subscales. The calculated mean value for the community disaster resilience index suggests a modest overall community disaster resilience level. Notably, social beliefs received the highest ratings, while social structure scored the lowest. Preventive measures are most common for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and storms. The society perceives a higher disaster resilience for epidemics, extreme temperatures, and drought, but lower resilience for volcanic eruptions, landslides, and tsunamis. Distinct subscales underscore variations, emphasizing the importance of targeted interventions. Positive views of response services and community leadership coexist with a generally neutral stance on disaster preparedness. Social capital reflects mutual trust, with space for increased community engagement. Social mechanisms indicate positive attitudes but underscore the need for enhanced household disaster preparedness, risk perception, and citizen disaster awareness. The high scores regarding the addressing of social injustices reveal positive attitudes, but the lower ratings obtained for specific programs suggest areas for improvement. Cultural aspects demonstrate positive attitudes towards traditions, faith, and cultural values, with challenges in trust during disasters and the role of religious leaders pointing to potential improvements. Correlations between education status, marital status, and various dimensions highlight nuanced relationships impacting community disaster resilience. The study offers a basis for focused interventions across a variety of criteria and sheds light on areas that might need improvement. By adding to our knowledge of disaster resilience in Serbian communities, this study helps practitioners and policymakers create focused interventions and promote a more just and resilient society that can withstand a variety of calamities. Additionally, this study significantly advances our knowledge of community (social) resilience in the face of various natural disasters, with an emphasis on the effects of demographic and socioeconomic factors. The identification of key predictors, such as age, education, employment, and property ownership, provides researchers with a foundation for further investigations and analyses. The research results indicate the need for differentiated approaches to studying community resilience to various types of disasters, providing new insights into complex sociodemographic factors. This paper carries significant social implications that can be utilized in the development of policies and practices to enhance the sustainable development of community (social) disaster resilience in Serbia. These results can be used as a starting point for the creation of educational initiatives, awareness-raising campaigns, and community support systems for anticipating and responding to various calamities.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Šišović, V. (2024). Understanding the Sustainable Development of Community (Social) Disaster Resilience in Serbia: Demographic and Socio-Economic Impacts. Sustainability, 16(7), 2620. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/7/2620
Industrial Disasters and Hazards: From Causes to Consequences—A Holistic View
Abstract: Starting from accelerated industrial development, industrial disasters (chemical spills, explosions, nuclear accidents, etc.), which fall under man-made (technological) disasters, increasingly threaten human lives, the environment, and property. Their complexity and far-reaching consequences, both at the local and global levels, require effective management of industrial risks and the disasters themselves (preparedness, mitigation, response, and recovery). For these reasons, the review paper aims to provide a holistic description of the diverse causes, dynamics, and multidimensional consequences of disasters. Additionally, it highlights and explains the key factors that directly or indirectly contribute to their occurrence. Furthermore, it could be said that the paper analyzes existing strategies for managing risks from industrial disasters and systematizes recommendations for improving preventive and reactive measures in high-risk industries. On the other side, the paper utilizes a comprehensive literature review, which involves the systematic identification, review, analysis, and critical evaluation of existing scientific papers, studies, reports, and regulatory documents on industrial disasters. Besides that, it also includes a detailed analysis of well-known industrial disaster cases such as Seveso (Italy, 1976), Bhopal (India, 1984), Chernobyl (Ukraine, then USSR, 1986), and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). The paper emphasizes that industrial disasters are often the result of the combined influence and interaction of technical failures, human errors, and inadequately developed safety procedures. Moreover, it can be highlighted that the design and implementation of preventive measures, such as regular maintenance of technical systems and systematic training and education of employees, are crucial for reducing the likelihood of such catastrophic events. The implications of this review paper are multifaceted and point to the following: the need to reassess current safety practices in industries; reconsider the potential for introducing innovations in preventive technical-technological solutions; examine the thorough implementation of innovative early warning systems, safety procedures, and modern equipment in facilities; improve cooperation between engineers, safety managers, and regulatory workers; reassess the need for additional updates and tightening of regulations regarding the storage, transport, and use of hazardous materials in industry; and improve the management of risks from industrial disasters.
Conslusion: A pace of technological advance means the opportunity for industrial disasters is never far away, and safety challenges continue to exist in various industries. It can be said that this multifaceted context of human errors, organizational weaknesses, and sometimes poor system performance underscores the importance of taking a holistic approach as part of comprehensive disaster risk management efforts. This fragility analysis reveals that addressing these risks cannot be limited to responses and defence mechanisms which are end-of-the-pipe but must include the design of systemic pre-ventive strategies from an upstream perspective. The other significant aspect of this study suggests that safety measurements need an upgrade along with strict regulations to prevent low-frequency, high-severity events (i.e. disasters such as Chernobyl or Bhopal) and high-frequency, lower-impact events (i.e. personal injuries). Installing so-phisticated early warning systems and scheduling equipment maintenance to avoid incidents are some of the measures that must be followed by industrial plants. Fur-thermore, Safety Culture is encouraged within organizations by consistent training and education to reduce human factors; an important cause of disaster.
The implications of this study stress the importance of interdisciplinary industri-al disaster prevention involving engineers, safety training managers, and inspection authorities. International cooperation constitutes one of the key softer levers, in which best practices and lenses are shared to develop unified frameworks that can be taken up or adapted globally. Countries also need to ensure that there are stricter rules in place regarding the proper use of dangerous substances, and industries should be made accountable for their work by adhering further to safety regulations as well. The rapid technological development, industrial disasters become an important challenge to safety in different sectors. The lack of a consistent definition underlines the need for an all-encompassing model that enables sectors and decision-makers to prevent and mit-igate these events. When it comes to creating a safety strategy, increased awareness of industrial hazards can go far. Also, the classification of industrial risks into type, cause, and materials streamlines risk management for an industry. Each sector can only col-lapse in a specific way, and by understanding the risks that are unique to each industry industries can take any number of precautions which when implemented prevent sys-temic collapses from occurring again.
This is because industrial disasters have complex effects, ranging from immediate physical destruction to long-term economic and ecological disasters with enormous social and health consequences. To mitigate the far-reaching impacts of this disrup-tion, industries must work together with governments and other stakeholders on com-plete recovery plans that address their immediate needs at once while planning to re-store regions in a resilient manner for years. Industrial disasters, typically but not solely chemical and nuclear accidents, have also had health consequences that demand urgent medical attention. This entails timely detection of toxic agents and long-term health surveillance of populations exposed. In minimizing health impacts, collabora-tion between industrial facilities that may be sources of contamination and other stakeholders, like emergency services and public health bodies is crucial.
The consequences of industrial disasters go beyond the short run and can have long-lasting economic impacts. Supplies and facilities do not exist that we can use to return habitat conditions, including these fish populations. The financial losses initially involve the clean-up and restoration attempts but extend on into property values, production abilities of all sorts, as well as economy-wide consequences. It is economi-cally risky for the industries if they do not invest in mitigation methods and plans to make sure recovery will leave as little damage as possible on their financials, while governments should help with relief efforts within impacted communities.
Certainly, industrial disasters can generate horrendous damage to surrounding ecosystems and biodiversity. It underscores the crucial role that environmental regula-tions play in internalizing these externalities, as well as ensuring the industries put in-to place strict containment measures. Developing the capacity to address long-term environmental recovery is central to any disaster management response. Risk man-agement for industrial disasters is highly challenging due to its unpredictable nature. Because the events are complex, so must the safety solutions — they need to accom-modate future dynamic industrial process situations. Industries are capable of meeting the unknown nature of these disasters by integrating cutting-edge technologies and enhancing organizational oversight.
A lot of things are needed to occur in an industrial disaster, also there is a human role to take its part and organize as well other than the technical faults. These factors must be addressed together as part of any efforts to prevent tragedies like this in the future. Smarter, safer technologies along with heightened workforce training are nec-essary to protect every part of industrial operations. This includes the continuous de-velopment of competencies: a) consciously acquired skills and b) specifically deployed employees, considering their personality traits and attitudes towards safety and risk.
Many industrial disasters are the result of failures in design and engineering (for example, if a dam is built too weakly or from substandard materials), which can make what would otherwise be normal operation dangerous due to vulnerabilities. Working to improve procedures around design, and installing state-of-the-art safety equipment should also play a role in addressing these risks. Preventing minor residual designs from turning into full-scale disasters.
The fact that human error is a major cause of industrial disasters still holds in en-vironments with advanced automation. Improving human reliability with training is needed to reduce technical failures as the latter commence from poor decision-making processes. Eliminating preventable disasters, the emphasis on human factors in indus-try. A safety culture, incompetence in maintenance, etc. — are organizational failures that can cause industrial disasters. Preventing such incidents will require better cor-porate practices, from enforcing safety protocols to regular maintenance. Good organ-ization will help prevent disasters from striking too often.
In the same way, industrial risk management needs to incorporate external factors such as natural disasters and sabotage. Industries need to have some concrete solutions that can help them in dealing with these external threats, which cause a huge loss of life and property. These strategies should also be able to focus on what the internal risk factors are (usually have greater controllability), as well they must examine how to take into account the risks occurring externally while drawing up disaster recovery management. This encompasses the range of hazards that need to be protected in in-dustrial facilities.
Studying industrial disasters of the past provides critical lessons for doing better in managing future calamities. Industries can use the knowledge of what led to and followed these cases. The general idea is that from the study industries should learn lessons so as not to fall into a similar trap. Key takeaway: Lessons learned from previ-ous incidents, improved regulatory frameworks, and safety protocols are to ensure that the risk of future industrial disasters is reduced. To prevent industrial disasters, it is amenable to multi-disciplinary and proactive risk management efforts. While the elimination of technology from its operations is an impossibility, the industry can re-duce exposure to these hazards by implementing state-of-the-art engineering solutions, building stronger organizations, and tightening regulatory systems in managing risks associated with technological threats. Expanded prevention readiness capacity is es-sential to learn continually about previous disasters and international cooperation in industrial systems safer, and more resilient.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M.; Renner, R.; Jakovljević, V. Industrial Disasters and Hazards: From Causes to Consequences—A Holistic View. Preprints 2024, 2024102313. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.2313.v1
A Systematic Literary Review on Community Resilience Indicators: Adaptation and Application of the BRIC Method for Measuring Disasters Resilience
Abstract: Community resilience represents an important concept in the comprehensive approach to disaster management. It is assumed that optimal community resilience can mitigate negative impacts and enable adaptation, thereby reducing the negative consequences of future disasters. The measurement of community resilience to disasters has advanced over the past two decades, primarily through the use of indicators that measure community resilience indices. The Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities (BRIC) represent an increasingly popular and frequently used quantitative method for measuring community resilience indices to disasters. This literature review was conducted to examine and assess the use and adaptation of the BRIC method in measuring community resilience. The review comprehensively analyzes relevant scientific papers, extracting and synthesizing the most important findings from the studies, which provided the necessary data to meet the objectives of the literature review. A total of 37 relevant studies were identified for analysis in the review. The indicators used were examined, including their selection, grouping, and evaluation procedures, as well as the calculation of the appropriate index. The review also covered the method of data collection needed to measure the impact of indicators on resilience, as well as the shortcomings of this process. The measurement of community resilience to disasters is a contemporary issue, with several detected shortcomings in the process itself. The need to adapt the BRIC method to the local context has been established. Improving the process of determining indicators and measuring indices would lead to broader use of the method in efforts to reduce disaster risk and enhance resilience to disasters.
Conslusion: Based on a detailed critical review of the literature, this paper deepens our understanding of the complexities of measuring the resilience of local communities to natural disasters, with a spe-cial emphasis on the application and adaptation of the BRIC and DROP models. The review iden-tified a range of significant indicators that affect resilience, but it also pointed out some critical shortcomings in the existing research and models.
First, one of the fundamental shortcomings is the limited geographical and cultural scope of current research. The vast majority of the analyzed papers are focused on specific regions, such as the USA and Europe, which limits the applicability of the findings in different social and eco-nomic contexts. Future research should include more countries and regions, particularly those with different levels of development and specific socioeconomic conditions, in order to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the applicability of the BRIC and DROP models in various contexts. Second, methodological limitations also represent a significant aspect that needs to be considered. Although the PRISMA methodology was used as the primary technique for conduct-ing the systematic literature review, it is necessary to include other methods that can further en-rich the analysis, such as the Delphi technique and case studies. This would allow for a deeper and more precise analysis of specific local contexts and their role in defining community resili-ence.
Third, the analysis indicated the need for further development and adaptation of existing in-dicators, especially in the context of social and infrastructural resilience. Indicators such as access to transportation, language competency, and communication capacities are not sufficiently ad-dressed in the existing literature and require additional attention. Additionally, new indicators need to be developed to better reflect the complexity and multidimensionality of local community resilience, taking into account the specificities of different geographical areas. Measuring the re-silience of local communities to natural disasters using the BRIC method and adapting the indi-cators for measuring the resilience index represents a challenge in itself. It is a process that cannot be directly observed but is concluded based on a larger number of factors. The very meaning of the term community resilience is still a subject of discussion and relatively uneven views. The main shortcoming in existing research lies in the implementation of tools for assessing communi-ty resilience and their ability to improve outcomes, that is, to select adequate indicators. The measurement of resilience in a given community is constantly evolving as a scientific field, and there is a lack of an adequate method to determine and adapt the indicators to be measured, which may be due to the overall development of society in the modern age and the changes in the ecological aspect conditioned by this development.
The main insight provided by the critical literature review points to current literature, the one that established the foundations and the one that represented an upgrade and the establish-ment of adequate guidelines for measuring the resilience of local communities to natural disas-ters. The obtained results, in addition to fulfilling the goals set in the paper, provide insight for new research in this area, namely how to approach the adaptation of the BRIC method, the selec-tion of appropriate indicators, and the obtaining of a resilience index for a specific community when natural disasters are involved. In the context of institutional resilience, it was concluded that institutions need to develop more precise and comprehensive indicators that would provide better insight into their ability to respond to disasters. This includes improving existing emergen-cy intervention plans and developing new approaches to assess and enhance institutional capaci-ties at the local level.
Overall, this paper highlights the need for further research and the development of integrat-ed approaches to measuring disaster resilience. Future research should focus on expanding the scope of analysis to different geographical and cultural contexts, as well as on developing new methodological tools that would allow for a more comprehensive assessment of local community resilience. In addition, it is recommended that the results of this review be used as a basis for de-veloping practical policies and strategies that will improve disaster resilience, both locally and globally.
This review points to the importance of further development and application of models such as BRIC and DROP, but at the same time emphasizes the necessity of adapting them according to specific local and regional conditions to ensure effective disaster risk management and the im-provement of community resilience worldwide.
Reference – Milenković, D., Cvetković, V. M., & Renner, R. (2024). A Systematic Literary Review on Community Resilience Indicators: Adaptation and Application of the BRIC Method for Measuring Disasters Resilience. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202410.2277.v1
A Predictive Model Of Community Disaster Resilience Based On Social Identity Influences (MODERSI)
Abstract: The territory of Serbia is vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The risk is not equal across the entire territory, depending on the type of hazard and the expected potential for damage. So far, the level of community disaster resilience has not been determined in Serbia. There are no scientific preconditions for its improvement to reduce the future material and intangible consequences of disasters. Regarding that, the project’s main objective is to develop and validate a predictive model of community disaster resilience based on social identity influences through an investigation impact of social identity indicators on the level of community disaster resilience in Serbia. The project is based on the upcoming research on whether the level of community disaster resilience can be predicted based on social identity indicators, how social identity indicators affect different dimensions of community disaster resilience, and how disasters shape social identity. The project is based on multimethod research in which quantitative (face-to-face interviews in 40 of the 191 municipalities), and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) research methodology will be applied. A developed predictive model with an index of community disaster resilience in Serbia will empower the creation of preconditions for designing public policies, strategies and procedures for improving resilience and reducing the consequences of disasters on people and their property and enhancing citizens’ security. The project will encourage the prediction of community disaster resilience based on social identity indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses. Based on the development of analytical frameworks for understanding community disaster resilience and social identity in disasters, essential preconditions for designing innovative information systems will be created to enable local communities to increase their level of resilience.
Conslusion: The realisation of the MODERSI project in which the quantitative and qualitative research tradition is applied provides results that ensure competitiveness, quality, practical value and transparency. Within the project, support will be provided for the development of doctoral students engaged in research in disaster studies. It will enable the creation of preconditions for the development of international research in this field. The result of scientific and innovative potentials in disaster risk management will be increased. The project will indicate the possibilities and needs for designing and implementing innovation, which can directly influence the business sector to move towards finding and producing innovative technical solutions for disaster risk management in all its stages (preparedness, mitigation, response, recovery, renewal and remediation). It will influence the connection between manufacturers of innovative technical solutions and users through apparent partnership cooperation and support platform. If adequately implemented, innovative solutions in DRR can directly reduce the primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of disaster on people and their health. The project will improve the theoretical and empirical fund of scientific knowledge in DRM. Education, which teaches individuals how to act in the event of a disaster and how to avoid unsafe scenarios that vary based on the hazard, is one of the most successful ways to increase community resilience. Several parties are involved in this goal: scientists, policymakers, emergency management organisations, and people. Despite this, disaster management knowledge looks scattered, highlighting perceived information coordination and sharing needs. The sharing of appropriate knowledge and good practices in CDR will enable the young researcher to conduct new research studies in this field. The project will contribute to exchanging opinions, knowledge, innovations and experiences in disaster risk management. In the short-term perspective, the Project will enable CDR prediction based on SI indicators, improving disaster foresight and preparing to limit disaster losses — rather than waiting for a disaster to occur and then paying for it. From a long-term perspective, it should be borne in mind that climate change is increasingly affecting the frequency and consequences of disasters and that society will face even more serious natural and anthropogenic disasters in the future. The project will enable communities and households to better understand and increase their ability to deal with, survive, and recover from disasters by assessing and strengthening disaster resilience. The project results will enable further development of scientific and empirical knowledge in disaster and future studies. They will be the starting point for further elaboration and development of predictive models. Project results can improve people-saving efforts and tailor warning messages to local risk factors and people’s behaviour. The project is in line with the activities of the World Bank, which has done much to mitigate the consequences of disasters in Serbia.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2023). A Predictive Model of Community Disaster Resilience based on Social Identity Influences (MODERSI). International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(2), 57-80.
The Assessment of Public Health Capacities at Local Self-Governments in Serbia
Abstract: The objective of this quantitative study was to examine the impact of selected factors on the level and state of public health capacities in local self-government units in 2021. This survey included 77 out of 145 local self-government units in the Republic of Serbia and examined six dimensions defined by the Law on Public Health. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that there were statistically significant correlations between the effectiveness of the realized program budget and microbiologically defective drinking water samples from the so-called village water supply systems, defective samples of drinking water from public taps, unsatisfactory analyses of wastewater samples, and the number of mandated fines issued. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the local self-government units that received assistance from the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities were 5.6 times more likely to perform analyses of their health status.
Conclusion: The results confirmed the effectiveness of implementing health councils in the areas of promotion and prevention, as well as in the organization and functioning of the healthcare system. In future works, LSGU should be supported in their choices of effective programs and priorities. Although a large percentage of local governments reported having an institutionally provided advisor for the protection of patients’ rights, a small number of patient complaints indicated that it is necessary to empower citizens to exercise their rights guaranteed by law. On the other side, the results of the study can be considered relevant to the regular monitoring and evaluation of indicators in the field of public health and in regard to health improvement at the local level, as well as assessing the capacities of cities and municipalities to implement their given responsibilities. The survey comprehensively assessed self-government units’ competencies in all areas of public health. The results obtained from the analysis of the work of the health councils, the selected indicators for each area of public health, and the effects of the support of the SCTM and the representatives of the public health institutes provided clear guidelines for establishing effective monitoring systems, planning the activities of the actors involved (LSGU, the SCTM, and public health institutes) and evaluating their effects. Areas of public health that were identified as needing special support included the environment, workplace environments, and emergency situations. The environment is the most complex area and probably the most important because it includes the entire population in each local self-government area. First of all, it is necessary to conduct health risk assessments in each municipality and adopt special environmental improvement programs based on the unit’s priorities. In general, the most important issues identified was water—the provision of proper drinking water in cities and small village waterworks, the availability of proper water in public facilities, as well as providing solutions regarding wastewater for both communal and industrial facilities. The second most important issue was air pollution measurements, which must be conducted continuously and for specific pollutants, and which were provided in less than a third of the LSGU. Further, it is essential to pay attention to the category in which the LSGU is located when we want to follow the development of this self-governing unit within the framework of public health. The development category indicator is very important from the point of view of local self-government, especially when it comes to planning its further development. It is necessary to help local self-governments to develop plans for the care of the population in crisis and emergency situations because the occurrence of unwanted events (such as floods, mass migrations, chemical spills, and pandemics) is becoming more frequent. The results of this study showed that the participation of public health representatives in the councils resulted in the councils having better access to analyses of health status and indicators of various areas of public health. Establishing good communication between partners at the local level contributes to the improved effectiveness of the activities undertaken.
Reference – Cvetković, V.M., Tanasić, J.; Ocal, A., Živković-Šulović, M., Ćurić, N., Milojević, S., Knežević, S. (2023). The Assessment of Public Health Capacities at Local Self-Governments in Serbia. Lex localis – Journal of Local Self Government, 21(4), 1201-1234
Sustainable Development of Trust and Presence of Police in Schools: Implications for School Safety Policy
Abstract: The study aims to determine the trust and presence of police officers in schools in Serbia, as well as the perception of the principals and secretaries, teachers and staff, parents and students on how successful the certain police units dedicated to schools were in fulfilling their tasks. The ex–post analysis was conducted through PEST/SWAT analysis, mapping of the key actors and using batteries of online questionnaires. Besides interviews with the MOI representatives, there were conducted: Survey with personal interviewing, Computer–aided surveying and Desk analysis and content analysis. The survey was conducted in the period from September 2021 to June 2022. The research methods were implemented in 1140 schools in Serbia and 8,617 people were included in surveys: police officers (308); principals and secretaries (1085); the team for protection against discrimination (982); teachers and staff (2988); parents (938) and students (2316). The relationships between the covariates and perception were investigated using the t–test, one–way ANOVA, multivariate linear regression, and binary regression. The results showed that a project of school police officers was not fully recognized as one of the strategically important instruments for safe schools, trust is low but presence is high. Besides that, the results suggest that the entire public believe that a police is needed in schools and that it has a very positive effect on school safety. Regarding school safety policy, it is necessary to undertake three types of measures for sustainable development of trust and presence of police in school: regulatory, informative-educational and institutional-organizational.
Conclusion: Although the data for our research were collected before the unfortunate events in Belgrade, the results suggest that the entire public (students, parents, teachers, principals, and school police officers) believes that a school police officer is needed in schools and that he has a very positive effect on school safety. After the mass shooting at the school in Belgrade, we believe that the public will be even more convinced that it is necessary. However, the simple presence of the school police officer on the premises is not enough; his work must be improved. That is why it is necessary to undertake three types of measures: regulatory, informative-educational, and institutional-organizational. Within the first group of measures, it is necessary to establish a school police officer institute within formal frameworks, that is, to systematize the job position – the school police officer, because currently, the said job is performed by different police officers who are not sufficiently trained in the field. It is necessary to draw up instructions for this job, which will regulate the actions of a school police officer in detail. Institutional-organizational measures include the definition of clear criteria that a police officer can perform the duties of a school police officer because they do not exist now. In addition, the question arises whether every school needs a school police officer. That is why it is necessary to define clear, minimum criteria for the introduction of a school police officer in a certain school (number of students, distance from the police station, coverage by patrol and police activities, number of committed offenses and criminal acts in and around the school, number of disciplinary measures imposed by the school, etc.), by which his introduction to the school according to someone’s “free judgment” would be avoided. In order to improve the work of the school police officers and exchange experience, it is necessary to connect all school police officers in the School Police Officer Network through internal police networks or social networks to exchange experiences on security-related issues in schools. One of the most important rules would be “one school police officer – one school”, which was not applied at the time of the school massacre in Belgrade. In many schools in Serbia, one school police officer works in two or more schools, often during a short period. The school police officer is not able to fulfill his tasks completely due to his partial presence in the school, which was also the case in the case of the massacre in the elementary school in Belgrade because she was not present at the time of the attack. Informational and educational measures include the establishment of special training for school police officers and the creation of a training program (Handbook) for the “school police officer”. In accordance with the newly created situation in Serbia, one part of the training would have to refer to the actions of school police officers in AMOK situations, that is, mass shootings in schools. In addition to independent training for school police officers, it is necessary to conduct joint training with school representatives. All the above measures would help each school where security is threatened to get its school police officer, who will contribute to increasing the safety of students in schools, feeling of safety of students and employees, and particularly help to avoid tragedies like the one that happened in the elementary school in Belgrade.
Reference – Jankovic, B. ., Cvetkovic, V. M. ., Ivanovic, Z. ., Ivanov, A., Jovanovic, S. ., & Otasevic, B. . (2023). Sustainable development of trust and presence of police in schools: implications for school safety policy. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(3), 22-52. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2393022j
Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction
Abstract: Starting from the unexplored level of the fire safety of citizens in Serbia, this paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding a fire safety behavior model for residential buildings in Serbia. The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 540 respondents during April 2021. The study’s objective was to determine to what degree education level and gender influence the prediction of the fire safety behavior model (individual preparedness, personal security, fire risk, fire prevention knowledge) for residential buildings in Serbia. The multivariate regression analyses showed that the most important predictor of individual preparedness, personal security, and fire risk perception was gender, followed by age. On the other hand, education level, ownership status, and monthly income did not sig-nificantly affect individual preparedness for fire protection, personal security, fire risk, and pre-vention knowledge. Moreover, the results showed the main reasons for not taking preventive actions are the high cost of the equipment, not being familiar with the exact measures to take, believing that the emergency services would provide them with the necessary assistance, a lack of time, etc. The obtained results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond in a timely and appropriate manner to fires in residential buildings and create programs and campaigns to improve awareness among the general public.
Conclusion: Previous unexplored levels and factors influencing fire safety in residential buildings in Serbia have contributed to the design, development, and testing of the fire safety behavior model with the aim of better understanding how to improve fire safety. The paper tests the hypothesis that education and gender are predictors in the fire safety behavior model. In this paper, this hypothesis was partially confirmed, bearing in mind that gender is the main predictor, not education. On the other hand, it was found that, in addition to gender, the most significant influence on the observed model was the age of the respondents. Additionally, the results showed that the level of perception of fire safety was lower compared to a larger number of observed dimensions of the mentioned model. Furthermore, there is not enough confidence in the level of preparedness and efficiency of fire and rescue units to protect them in such situations. Starting from the importance of appropriate risk perception in the process of improving the preparedness of citizens for fires in residential buildings [137–142], most respondents believe that fire is unlikely to happen in the future and that they would begin the evacuation without waiting for the arrival of professional firefighters or rescue units. All this can be related to the increase in mortality and injuries of citizens in fires in residential buildings in the territory of Serbia. Additionally, insufficient training of citizens for proper and timely response, the appropriate use of protective equipment, the use of firefighting equipment, etc., was determined. Among the main reasons for not improving fire safety are the high costs of preventive measures and the view that this is the responsibility of fire and rescue units. On the other hand, citizens mostly think about preventive measures encouraged by taking care of personal safety and assessing high risks of building fires. After the faculty, citizens are mostly informed about various aspects of fires via the Internet, and least of all via radio. The level of knowledge of citizens about various aspects of safety in housing fires is at a lower level, which is very worrying. Few citizens know where they are and how to use appropriate safety valves and switches, fire extinguishers, how to evacuate, etc. An additional problem is the fact that in many buildings there are no properly installed fire protection systems, and there are also no inspections that would identify such deficiencies and require their immediate elimination. Our results have several significant public fire safety implications: in the shortest possible time, it is necessary to design campaigns and programs that would raise citizens’ awareness of the risks (causes and consequences) of fires in residential buildings. It is also necessary to improve the legislation that would explicitly regulate fire safety in residential buildings and provide for regular inspections; design and implement certain evacuation and firefighting exercises with tenants of buildings at the level of housing communities; improve the level of preparedness of women and people with special needs for proper and safe response in situations in which a fire occurs; and to educate citizens through all possible channels of dissemination, but mostly through the Internet and in the education system, which could be realized by introducing the subject of safety culture in primary and secondary schools. In future research, it is necessary to examine other cultural and socioeconomic factors influencing the level of fire safety, as well as to conduct certain qualitative research that would look more deeply at the factors that influence citizens to take or not take preventive measures. The conducted research has undoubted scientific and social implications, which are reflected in the improvement of the theoretical and empirical fund of scientific knowledge in the field of fire safety, but also in helping decision-makers to more comprehensively consider different dimensions of fire safety in Serbia.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Dragašević, A., Protić, D., Janković, B., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, P. (2022). Fire safety behavior model for residential buildings: Implications for disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 102981. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102981
A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers
Abstract: This paper presents quantitative research results regarding a predictive model of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease (COVİD-19). The aim of this paper was to establish the level and impact of certain demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19). The research was conducted using a questionnaire that was provided and then collected online for 1226 respondents during May 2021. A closed, five-point Likert scale was used to create the structured questionnaire. The first section of the questionnaire included research questions about the participants’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, while the second section included issue questions about fear caused by COVID-19. The results of multivariate regression analyses showed the most important predictor for fear of COVID-19 to be gender, followed by age and education level. Furthermore, the results of t-tests showed statistically significant differences between men and women in terms of different aspects of pandemic disaster fear caused by the coronavirus disease. Our results have several significant public health implications. Women who were more educated and knowledgeable, married, and older, reported a greater fear of the outbreak at various levels. Decision-makers can use these findings to identify better strategic opportunities for pandemic disaster risk management.
Conclusion: The world has been challenged with the novel coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV2) and its associated disease, COVID-19, since early 2020. This study provides an assessment of fear during the COVID-19 epidemic in Serbia. Our results have several significant public health implications. Females who were more educated and knowledgeable, married, and older, reported greater fear of the outbreak at various levels. Most respondents stated that they were not afraid of the epidemic caused by COVID. The most important predictor for fear of COVID-19 was gender, followed by age and education level. The obtained research results have scientific and social implications. The scientificimplications are in strengthening the empirical basis for conducting further analyses offear during the COVID-19 epidemic and in providing a better understanding of human behaviour in disasters caused by epidemics [125–127]. The study also complements the scientific fund of knowledge in disaster studies and addresses shortcomings in terms of understanding the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors on people’s fears during disasters caused by epidemics. From a societal perspective, the research results enable decision-makers to scientifically create and implement strategies, programs, and campaigns for the psycho-social support of people in disasters caused by epidemics. In addition, understanding the impact on people of disasters caused by epidemics allows the design and adaptation of strategic, tactical, and operational interventions for disaster risk communications and the implementation of public mental health policies. More research should be carried out on fear according to ethnicity, religion, and geo-graphical differences. First, studies can be conducted on the duration of disasters and thepsychological effects of direct experience. Second, the relationship between the economic situation and participants’ emotional reactions to the pandemic could be investigated. Third, the impact of possible disasters on individuals living in urban and rural areas couldbe compared. Our findings directly inform understanding of perceived fear during theCOVID-19 outbreak. Fourth, the inability to conduct a longitudinal study can be characterised as a deficiency due to uncertainty around the start and end of the pandemic. In order to discern the psychological changes in pandemic disasters, longitudinal examination ofindividuals during COVID-19 or another epidemic disease process will allow useful datato be obtained.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Nikolić, N., Ocal, A., Martinović, J., & Dragašević, A. (2022). A Predictive Model of Pandemic Disaster Fear Caused by Coronavirus (COVID-19): Implications for Decision-Makers. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(2). doi:10.3390/ijerph19020652
Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management
Abstract: The objective of this research was to examine the capacity development of local self-governments in the field of disaster risk management (DRM). This quantitative research examines the degree of implementation of strategic, legislative, and institutional frameworks, as well as the capacity of local authorities to apply related policies through five analytical scopes: (1) degree of preparedness and legal framework; (2) financial framework; (3) policy aspects; (4) cooperation and partnership; (5) communication. The ability of municipalities and towns to respond to disasters was also analyzed and compared. In this paper, our initial hypothesis was that the effective implementation of the concept of DRM policy in towns of Serbia requires the continual strategic, tactical, and operational transformation of the public administration and public management system in order to strengthen the capacity of local self-governments for disaster prevention, preparation, response, and recovery. This multi-method research was conducted over the period of 2014–2017 and included the following two target groups: (a) heads of disaster sectors in local self-government units (mayor) and (b) employees of the DRM sector in local self-government units. The results of this research will enable decision makers to successfully respond to challenges and help to improve the capacity of local self-governments and public local administrations within the scope of DRM in the Republic of Serbia, based on the principles of prevention and proactive action, coordination, cooperation, partnership, and responsibility.
Conclusions: The normative and functional incompleteness and partial non-establishment of the DRM system at the central level have resulted in the fact that the system has not been established at the local level to a great extent either. Disaster risk management at the local level is carried out in a uniform manner: all local government units have the same type and scope of competencies. Generally, no differences were perceived between towns and municipalities with respect to the degree of establishment of competencies, whether normatively, institutionally, functionally, operationally, or financially, except in individual cases in favor of municipalities, which should be the subject of separate research. Strategic documents in the domain of community safety are not mandatory and do not exist in large numbers, whereas mandatory ones (crucial to the prevention of disasters), such as risk assessments and protection and rescue schemes, have been adopted to an alarmingly small degree. The competencies of towns in the operational sense, such as the establishment of headquarters and the adoption of accompanying documents, have only been partially fulfilled. Obligations that reflect the functional establishment of competencies that require full political, organizational, and financial commitment and the incorporation of the security concept into the organizational system have not been established. This refers primarily to the operation and equipment of all-purpose civil protection units, emergency population warning systems, education, etc. Supervision over the exercise of competencies in the domain of disasters in local self-government units is not visible in the system. Additionally, liability does not exist in practice, and neither do the procedures and mechanisms for determining the fulfillment of the legally prescribed competencies of local self-government units. Individual, legal, and criminal liabilities have not been made clear, with the assumed liability being primarily political in nature. Cooperation among the different levels of government was assessed as good, as is coordination. Cooperation with neighboring municipalities during disaster events was deemed to be poor (less than half of the local self-government units participating in the survey stated that they cooperate with other municipalities), while preventive intermunicipal cooperation was almost symbolic in nature. There was no cross-border cooperation, and there is plenty of room for improvement in this area. Knowledge about the existence of international funds for project financing was insufficient. Regarding project financing, town representatives were more informed than municipal ones, but interest in the proposal and implementation of projects was generally low. Employees in local self-government units were not additionally motivated to develop projects, as they generally will be given more money for extra work. The projects were developed mainly by the local economic development offices, which serve as developmental organizational units, and were implemented by various sectors of local self-governments within the project-related area. Additional motivation is needed to encourage employees in local self-government units to develop and implement projects in the field of DRM. Cooperation and communication among participants at the local level were reduced to formalized meetings, with no substantial insight into the capacities of the subjects and their vulnerability assessment schemes and a lack of developed informal contacts among people prior to a disaster. Resource databases for DRM do not exist. Based on conversations with subjects at the central level, it is assumed that each institution and protection and rescue formation at the local level is acquainted with the contents of its databases of available resources (which are not necessarily digital). The recommendation is that attention should be called to the establishment of standardized, available, and electronic resource databases for local DRM. Cities have formally improved their competencies in areas that do not require large investments and resources, such as holding staff meetings, appointing legal entities, and appointing civil protection commissioners and deputies. When it comes to forming expert-operational teams and standing commissions for damage assessment, they have remained at the same level or progressed, but not significantly. In areas that require serious political, professional, and public commitment and significant allocations, such as formation, the training and equipping of general-purpose civil protection units, situation centers, acoustic studies, the creation of an alert system, personal and collective protection, and simulation exercises, the situation is generally unsatisfactory. The competencies of local self-government in the operational and tactical sense are not sufficient. The strategic risk assessment plans provided by law have not been sufficiently implemented or adopted in a timely manner in cities, so the style of crisis management is mostly reactive. Organizational constraints relating to disaster risk management include a lack of staff, insufficient staff education, and financial and technical constraints. Failure to recognize the importance of prevention by policymakers is one of the most important organizational constraints. Additionally, organizational memory, as an integral part of the cognitive dimension of the learning of local self-government units in disasters and its explicit form (such as rule-books, manuals, instructions, public policy strategic documents, databases) has not been sufficiently established. On the other hand, cooperation and communication between actors at the local level have been reduced to formalized meetings, without substantial insight being gained into the capacities of actors, vulnerability assessments being carried out, or developed informal contacts being created between people before disasters occur. Resource databases for disaster risk management are not sufficient. Based on conversations with actors at the central level, it is assumed that each institution and player in protection and rescue at the local level knows what it must do and has its own database of available resources (not necessarily electronic). Through this research, we aim to enable both decision-makers and citizens to competently and effectively respond to challenges of existing DRM policy in accordance with the principles of prevention, proactive action, coordination, cooperation, partnership, and responsibility, as well as to suggest new research perspectives.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Tanasić, J., Ocal, A., Kešetović, Ž., Nikolić, N., & Dragašević, A. (2021). Capacity Development of Local Self-Governments for Disaster Risk Management. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19). doi:10.3390/ijerph181910406
Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Exposure to Radiation vs. Social Benefits
Nuclear power remains one of the most accessible choices in addressing environmental and social concerns due to the continuously increasing energy needs around the world. While it remains an excellent source of energy due to its low price and low level of emissions, potential accidents remain a serious problem. An example of such is the most recent accident in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (2011), which reminded the world of the potential risks of nuclear energy and the consequences of which continue to have a lasting effect. There is no nuclear power plant in Serbia, but there are about 15 nuclear power stations scattered within its neighboring countries. Therefore, the Serbian Government decided to study how the Serbian public perceives the risks related to the potential construction of nuclear power stations in the country, nuclear energy in general, and its possible benefits and risks. The objective of this paper is to present the results of this assessment along with a literature overview on the (environmental) risk of nuclear power. A pilot study consisted of a series of 270 randomized face-to-face interviews that took place in the public square of Belgrade in March 2019. Logistic regression was used to examine the cumulative effects of the different risk factors. The results showed that the majority of the respondents are skeptical and do not support the construction of nuclear power stations in Serbia. Furthermore, this research identified several additional important correlations that have a significant impact on the public perception of risk.
Conclusion: The main focus of this research project was the opinions of the people of the Republic of Serbia, a Balkan country, in terms of the potential risks of nuclear power. The selection of the Republic of Serbia for such a study is important to note because nuclear energy is not used at all in Balkan countries; as a result, few hazard studies have been conducted by social science investigators in Serbia. As many countries in Europe depend on nuclear energy, the results of our study will prove valuable for government policy makers in other Balkan countries and in Serbia itself, considering the potential construction of nuclear power reactors in the future. Additionally, these findings will play a significant role in educating scientists and the public regarding the risks and benefits of nuclear energy. Considering that some variables, such as gender, employment status, educational level, and marital status, are important in predicting nuclear energy acceptance, future studies should focus on these variables, as they are useful for all emergency managers and government decision makers grappling with the need for more energy sources in their countries.
As nuclear power represents both an energy source and a potential threat to the environment and to human safety and security, further scientific studies exploring economic and geopolitical factors, such as the unregulated and uncontrolled development of nuclear power, which can lead to irrevocable harm to communities in Serbia, other Balkan countries, and Europe overall, need to be carried out.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., Lyamzina, Y., Noji, E., Nikolić, N., & Milošević, G. (2021). Nuclear Power Risk Perception in Serbia: Fear of Exposure to Radiation vs. Social Benefits. Energies, 14, 2464.
Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia
Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, and has since spread globally, especially to Europe and North America, resulting in the ongoing 2019–20 global coronavirus pandemic disaster. While the majority of cases result in mild symptoms, some progress to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure and death. As of 19 April 2020, more than 2.35 million cases have been reported across 185 countries and territories, resulting in more than 162,000 deaths. Risk to communities with ongoing sustained widespread disease transmission depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccine or treatment medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on community interventions such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing) — all of which have been demonstrated can reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level of citizen preparedness for disasters caused by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 975 respondents during disaster in March-April 2020. The questionnaire explored citizens’ basic socio-economic and demographic characteristics, their knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures taking individually and as a community to prevent the deadly and widespread transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Republic of Serbia. Based on findings that there are major differences in the public’s perception of risks presented by communicable disease threats such as presented by COVID-19, emergency management agencies should use these differences to develop focused strategies to enhance community and national preparedness through the promotion of behavioral change and the improvement of risk management decision-making regarding pandemic disasters.
Conclusion: The risk to communities with continued widespread transmission depends on the characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads among people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or drugs that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccines or medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions become the most important response strategy based on citizen preparedness measures such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing)—all of which have been demonstrated to reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. The possibility that the COVID-19 virus could behave differently from previous coronavirus outbreaks in 2003 and 2015 requires new research studies, assessments, and plans to address a novel virus with high transmission in the community and severe morbidity and mortality.
The study described in this paper deals with the critical initial steps in the process of preparing for a pandemic disease disaster, i.e., determining the general knowledge of citizens in Serbia regarding their level of knowledge regarding the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 poses to both themselves and the wider community, risk perception, risk management and the recommended preventive approach. The results of this study demonstrated the importance of knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures to effectively respond to a COVID-19 outbreak. We tested the central hypothesis that gender, educational level and age are predictive variables for stronger citizen preparedness for a pandemic disaster.
Results of our survey indicate that there are major differences in the Serbian public’s perception of risks presented by pandemic Novel Coronavirus 2019 particularly their general knowledge vis-à-vis the general threat that novel coronavirus 2019 presents to both themselves and the community at large, risk perception, risk management and recommended preventive measures to take to decrease the possibility of becoming ill or dying from COVID-19. The study described in this paper addresses critical initial steps in the process of local and national preparation for a pandemic disease disaster. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced anti-pandemic disease preparedness measures by promotion of behavioural changes that go hand in hand with the of adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures.
All cities and towns in Serbia need to have disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations, not preconceived generalized plans. Airport plane crashes, stadium catastrophes, and remote mass transit accidents are all very different from those caused by deadly infectious microorganisms such as COVID-19 and require different responses. Communications need to be standardized and supported. Triage needs to be thought through more clearly. Future research would benefit from a more epidemiological approach (e.g., case-control and cohort studies) to identify risk factors for poor community responses to communicable disease disasters such as epidemics, “before and after” studies looking at a population in Serbia that has been affected by infectious disease disasters such as coronavirus pandemics, and studies using currently validated modelling and simulation methods.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Nikolić, N., Nenadić, R. U., Ocal, A., & Zečević, M. (2020). Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(11), 4124.
Young adults’ fear of disasters: A case study of residents from Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia
Abstract: This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level and the causes of fear of disasters among young adults in Turkey, Serbia, and Macedonia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected hand by hand that explored in depth the disaster-related fears among 537 respondents during 2016. The questionnaire explored students’ basic demographics and their level of fear, as well as the causes and sources of fear. Across the three countries, the results indicated an excessive level of fear both of earthquakes and of epidemics. In addition, participants reported that they were particularly afraid for their personal lives and, to a greater extent, for the health of their parents. Experiences with bad weather conditions, pictures of the consequences of disasters, and past disaster experience were found to exacerbate fear. It was also found that females were more afraid, with a possible socio-cultural-laden link to an ethos of protection versus participation. Findings can be used to create focused strategies at a national level intended to reduce excess fear of disasters and facilitate a more prepared public through policy and education programme development.
Conslusion: Experts, researchers and practitioners agree that fear is a natural emotional precondition designed to keep us safe and give us the means to take action without remaining paralyzed in a crisis situation. However, not all people, especially young adults, are concerned or worried about a set of environmental issues that they might encounter. For this reason, we investigated their knowledge and fear about disasters and the relations of these among university students in Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey. Overall, students in the three countries reported that earthquakes and epidemics are the disasters they most worry about, while schools include the notion of disaster risk reduction in education (chiefly, on seismic activities) from elementary to graduate levels in Macedonia and Turkey [43,76]. It nevertheless appears that young adults carry some level of worry and concern. With that in mind, while schools may be demonstrating proactive initiatives on raising risk awareness, helping young people couple physical forms of preparedness with psychosocial forms appears to be a necessary consideration [77]. That is, as children typically have high levels of fear about disasters, as documented earlier in this paper [78], part of any educational efforts and related evaluation should be targeting and assessing, respectively, whether education typically pushes children into arousal zones that produce more action than they do avoidance. Additionally, via education outside of school, more efforts should be implemented at a community level. As suggested by Tuladhar et al. [79] students and the community should interact and participate in disaster education together, which can produce and enhance strong networks and societal cohesion-known predictors of enhanced hazard preparedness [22]. Concerning the causes of fear, young adults felt more afraid for their parents’ health than anything else, including their own health. After themselves, they had more fears in relation to themselves or others (i.e., children, partner) than to material aspects (house, other material losses), with the exception of fears of being without food. In addition, students agreed that the main source of fear is experience of bad weather conditions, visual images and previous experience with disasters. Of course, various experiences are invariably filtered through a cultural and familial lens; thus, such experiences can be attenuated or amplified through family discussions or oral transmission. This includes turning “threat” talk into “challenge” talk and resultant coping strategies, the latter being quite convincingly shown to improve task performance while also reducing fears [80]. That is, such responsibilities should not be confined to school and education programmes but should rather be part of family culture and related discussions. In addition, gender was found to be a predictor of worry, demonstrating that young female students are more fearful that their male counterparts.It is important to acknowledge that the sample of interviewees was relatively small and may not perfectly match the entire body of college students in the three countries due to sampling method. For this reason, it is important for future researchers to build on current findings and to explore in more depth the feelings and related variables that work together and underpin perceptions and preparedness about environmental risks. This research thus should be considered preliminary but important, as it includes data information about the risk and communication messaging in these countries. Of course, findings can also provide insight not only for emergency management practitioners but also for policy makers, educational institutions and, ultimately, young people and their families themselves. In addition to the family environment, where children learn first, schools themselves, from primary to colleges, are a key source for building disaster preparedness and increasing awareness about our earth’s changes and movements and the overlap between more scientific-laden knowledge and critical “human factors”, including those in disaster risk-reduction and resilience contexts.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Öcal, A., & Ivanov, A. (2019). Young adults’ fear of disasters: A case study of residents from Turkey, Serbia and Macedonia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 35, 101095. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101095
The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviors towards Flood Risk in Serbia
Abstract: Adverse outcomes from 2014 flooding in Serbia indicated problematic response phase management accentuated by a gender imbalance. For this reason, we investigated the risk perceptions and preparedness of women and men regarding these types of events in Serbia. Face-to-face interviews, administered to 2500 participants, were conducted across 19 of 191 municipalities. In light of the current findings, men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, perceiving greater individual and household preparedness. By contrast, women displayed a deeper understanding of these events. Perhaps owing to a deeper level of understanding, women demonstrated more household-caring attitudes and behaviors and were more prone to report a willingness to help flood victims at reception centers. Emergency management agencies and land planners should account for these differences in gender awareness and preparedness. Based on these findings, doing so may increase citizen participation and shared responsibility under flood hazard scenarios.
Conslusion: In this work, gender differences were found in a large sample in Serbia regarding a range of flood preparedness indicators. Although there were some variables that indicated no significant or slight differences, larger magnitude and significant differences appeared to revolve around men’s perceptions of being more prepared and being more active or willing to be involved in or led by community-level activities. Women generally reported being less confident, but perhaps had more realistic views about being prepared while also reporting more household- and family-level cares, concerns, and preparedness behaviors in selected areas. Such a pattern may be underpinned, at least to some extent, by gender-specific roles linked to the household and to community access, leading to a state of affairs that lead to less ability to connect with active social networks within the community, coupled with being less informed and able to be involved in larger decision-making processes. For this purpose, planners might consider how this may affect the way authorities can reach those people with hazard information and emergency warnings. Importantly, based on current findings coupled with other research on different gender profiles, both women and men should be seen as valuable resources that might combine complementary strengths to maximize preparedness, response, and recovery. That is, promoting more gender-related dialogue that aims to leverage the respective strengths of women and men and requires women to be increasingly empowered to take leading roles in building disaster resilience. In this work, females reported greater organization of essential supplies and emergency amenities, saving important documents, and dealing with the financial matters of the household. This should be taken not only as an advantage, but also perhaps as a proxy for a more embedded sense of prioritizing the security of the household, which makes them more motivated for arranging household and family concerns. This includes emphasizing their role in emergency management messaging for preparing the family for a possible hazard situation. Men appeared to be more confident in managing an emergency situation, including the perception that they were better prepared to take action, including physical preparedness and response. Additionally, women had fewer opportunities to maintain a high level of social networking in the community, which may lead to them being less informed. This might then underpin women expressing TV as the main channel of flood hazard information and education. Regarding the main outcomes of this research, at a political level, it is thus important to:
Learn more about and emphasize the role of women and men in emergency management planning and messaging;
Engage in more in-depth research on gender roles, including more in-depth qualitative or mixed methods research that uses interviewing and/or focus group methodologies on gathering more in-depth information;
Develop strategies to empower women, educate men, and promote the genders working together synergistically to prepare effectively while also perhaps, at the same time, overcoming gender stereotypes;
Promote gender-sensitive preparedness by using networks that appeal to and advocate for women, including those that have a long history of assessing and addressing public health issues (e.g., women’s social and health care providers);
Use a range of communication channels for increasing hazard knowledge and preparedness, including gender-related scenarios or case studies that appeal to people and promote empowerment and working cooperatively together within households and communities;
Include flood hazard education in children’s school curricula (e.g. education on gender empowerment and cooperation in the context of creating a current and future population that has resilience and risk management knowledge and skills) with the purpose to prepare for and solve problems linked to a range of risk scenarios in life such as flooding and other natural hazards.
Based on the current quantitative research, there is an increasing need for more gender-focused mixed methods research to contextualize gender discrepancies in more depth and at a local scale. Doing so can better target and tailor disaster management planning and preparedness, response, and recovery education campaigns. Such work could result, perhaps even quite significantly, in fewer victims of events such as floods, lessening economic losses, and reducing other consequences.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Roder, G., Öcal, A., Tarolli, P., & Dragićević, S. (2018). The Role of Gender in Preparedness and Response Behaviors towards Flood Risk in Serbia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(12), 2761. doi:https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15122761
Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: A comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia
Abstract: A new coronavirus emerged in December 2019 and quickly spread globally, causing unprecedented social, psychological, and economic damage. This study aimed to investigate people’s emotional reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. The dataset for this study consisted of 2,013 adults (962 males and 1,053 females) in four countries (Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia). A snowball sampling technique that focused on recruiting the general public living in countries during the COVID-19 epidemic was utilized. An online survey was disseminated at the same time, in March–April 2020, when many countries were exposed to COVID-19. Results indicated that, with regard to gender, females had more psychological reactions to COVID-19 than did males. People who had one child were more stressed than people with no children. Extensive knowledge of COVID-19 was found to trigger more anxiety. Results showed that stress and overall emotional reactions increased with age. The findings can be used to develop psychological interventions to improve mental health and psychological resilience during the COVID-19 epidemic. Keywords: pandemic; stress; anxiety; depression; adult, COVID-19; emotion; disaster; disease.
Conclusions: This study provides timely assessment of the risk perception of adults during the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. During the study, the respondents rated their psychological situation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic can provide valuable insights into how to handle future epidemics. These include proper hand hygiene, isolation of infected individuals, isolation of individuals with suspected symptoms or fever, and preventing direct contact with suspected animal reservoir hosts. Our results have several immediate and significant public health implications. First, female gender, being more educated and knowledgeable, married, older, and geographical differences were associated with a greater psychological impact of the outbreak and higher levels of stress, anxiety, and depression at various levels. Second, male gender, being single, being less educated and knowledgeable, younger, and geographic differences were associated with a smaller psychological impact of the outbreak and lower levels of stress, anxiety, and depression at various levels. Specific conditions of countries could be associated with lower or higher psychological impacts. Countries with aging populations and social and political issues may have more stress, anxiety, and depression while countries with younger populations and few political problems may have less psychological impact related to pandemic diseases. More research should be carried out on the development of effective methods to provide early and timely detection of such diseases’ psychological symptoms. A number of future studies can be conducted to collect more scientific information on this area. First of all, research based on direct experience with the disease can be conducted in the future, which can make a significant contribution to better understanding adults or children’s fear of pandemics. Second, the relationship between the economic situation and emotional reactions of participants to the pandemic can be investigated. Our findings can be used to formulate psychological interventions to improve mental health and psychological resilience during the COVID-19 epidemic, such as cognitive behavior therapy and mindfulness-based therapy (Ho et al. Citation2020). Our findings directly inform on the emotional reactions during the COVID-19 outbreak. This study has several limitations. In consideration of the time-sensitivity of the COVID-19 outbreak, we adopted an online survey with snowball sampling strategy. This sampling strategy is not based on a random selection; thus, the study populations do not reflect the actual pattern of the general population. To preserve individual rights, we were not allowed to collect personal information from the respondents. As our study does not reflect the actual pattern of the general population, the conclusion was less generalizable. Furthermore, a longitudinal study would show temporal changes during the COVID-19 pandemic (Wang et al. Citation2020b). Besides this, the participants’ self-reported levels of emotional reactions may be insufficient evidence to fully assess their psychological situation.
Reference – Öcal, A., Cvetković, V. M., Baytiyeh, H., Tedim, F. M. S., & Zečević, M. (2020). Public reactions to the disaster COVID-19: a comparative study in Italy, Lebanon, Portugal, and Serbia. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 11(1), 1864-1885. doi:10.1080/19475705.2020.1811405
Public Risk Perspectives Regarding the Threat of Terrorism in Belgrade: Implications for Risk Management Decision-Making for Individuals, Communities and Public Authorities
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the risk of terrorist attacks as perceived by individuals, the local community as a whole, and municipal public safety officials in Belgrade, the capital of the Republic of Serbia. The structured questionnaire about perceived risk of terrorist attacks and preparedness was developed using close-ended, multiple choice questions and questionnaire items featuring 5-point Likert response options. Data were collected between June and September 2017 by a telephone survey using a random digit dialing procedure; 485 adult Serbian residents participated in the research voluntarily. Study participants exhibited low levels of perception vis-a-vis the future likelihood of terrorist attacks occurring in their communities, and only a moderate knowledge of counter-terrorism activities currently being undertaken by public safety authorities. Other responses to our questionnaire indicated statistically significant differences in perception of the risks of terrorism threats in Belgrade with respect to demographic variables such as age, gender, employment and past exposure to major emergencies. We encourage emergency management agencies in Serbia to use the differences in public perception of risks identified in our study to develop enhanced counter-terrorism preparedness measures through the promotion of behavioural change. Such action goes hand-in-hand with the adoption of improved risk management decision-making procedures. Furthermore, to improve risk management decision-making we need to anticipate virtually all possible scenarios because terrorism is now a clear and present danger to the safety of the citizens of Serbia. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have up-to-date disaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and locations as opposed to only preconceived generalized plans. Keywords: terrorism, risk perception, threat, preparedness, decision-making, Belgrade.
Conclusions: Results of our survey indicate that there are major differ-ences in the public’s perception of risks presented by terrorismthreats in Belgrade. We encourage emergency managementagencies in Serbia to use their knowledge of these differencesin public perception of risks identified in our study to developenhanced counter-terrorism preparedness measures throughthe promotion of behavioural change, an adjustment ofthought which goes with the adoption of improved risk man-agement decision-making procedures. For example, the gen-eral public needs to be trained in initial care of victims in thesame way Basic Life Support is currently taught. Furthermore,to improve risk management decision-making we need toanticipate virtually all possible scenarios because terrorismis now a clear and present danger to the safety of citizens ofSerbia. All cities and towns in Serbia need to have up-to-datedisaster plans that are tailored to specific scenarios and lo-cations as opposed to only preconceived generalized plans.Airport plane crashes, stadium catastrophes, and remote masstransit accidents are all vastly different routes to terrorist at-tacks and require different responses. Communications needto be standardized and backed up. Triage needs to be thoughtout more clearly. Scene control to prevent access from unau-thorized medical personnel is likewise important. The prob-lems of a building collapse caused by blast devices need to beaddressed by engineers and EMS planners.Limitations of our study include: 1) potential bias in se-lecting study subjects to complete questionnaires; 2) no studyparticipants had any experience with a “real life” terroristevent; and 3) the study used primarily quantitative researchmethods and could have benefited from a more qualitativeanalytic approach. Future research would benefit from a more epidemiologic approach (e.g. case-control and cohort studies)to determine risk factors for poor community responses to agiven terrorist event, “before and after” studies looking at apopulation in Serbia that has been affected by a human-gen-erated disasters such as terrorism, and studies using currentlyvalidated modelling and simulation methods.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Noji, E., Filipović, M., Popović, M., Kešetović, Ž. & Radović, N. (2018). Public Risk Perspectives Regarding the Threat of Terrorism in Belgrade: Implications for Risk Management Decision-Making for Individuals, Communities and Public Authorities. Journal of Criminal Investigation and Criminology/, 69(4), 279-298.
Relations between police and private security officers: a case study of Serbia
Abstract: In the last few years, under the influence of various circumstances, the demand for the private security industry has increased in Serbia. The aim of this research is to examine the extent and quality of cooperation between members of the public and private security sector as the mutual perception of its members because their relations are important for establishing a safe environment for citizens. The survey was conducted from February to June 2019 using a questionnaire among 190 police officers and 178 security personnel. The results of this research showed that mutual relations between the private security personnel and police officers are satisfactory, but also that members of private security look at these relations from a brighter side and have a very positive attitude towards members of the police, while members of the police view these relations more negatively. The results of this research can be used for planning campaigns to improve the relationships between police officers and security personnel.
Conclusions: Serbia is among the last countries in Europe in which legal acts regulating the fieldof private security were adopted. In fact, private security is still in its early develop-ment stages. This also affects the development of the relationship between the policeand private security, as this research has shown. These relations are not bad but arestill not at the level that the professional, as well as the general public, would likethem to be. Members of private security look at those relations with more optimism,while members of the police have a more realistic view of the problems that accom-pany those relations. Police officers do not perceive private security as equal part-ners and do not have much confidence in their work. Due to all the above, it is neces-sary to take certain measures to improve these relations. One of the measures couldbe the abolition of the monopoly of the Serbian police on the control and regulationof the work of private security. It is necessary to leave certain levels of control toprivate security itself, and for certain segments to remain under the jurisdiction ofthe police. The conduct of examinations for obtaining licenses for private securityshould be organized in such a way that the commissions are of mixed composition.It is necessary to significantly increase the number of classes for training mem-bers of private security, to improve their knowledge and skills, but also to get themacquainted with the duties of police officers. It is recommended that representativesof the police, with extensive experience, and the Chamber of Private Security com-pose training programs together, as this would improve the training plans. Privatesecurity should promote its work in public, in campaigns similar to those conductedby the police to bring their work closer to the citizens, and sometimes, it would bedesirable to include members of the police in them. Joint training could also help toimprove relations, it would improve the knowledge and skills of participants, allowthem to exchange experiences, and in that way gain a better picture of each other.Also, in the training programs of police officers, it is necessary to include one seg-ment that refers to the rights and obligations of members of private security, becauseit is necessary for situations when they are engaged in mutual tasks, which will bemore and more in the future.The limitation of this research is that it was only conducted on the territory ofSerbia, with a relatively low number of respondents who completed the question-naire, and not in a larger number of countries. Having in mind the imbalance inthe sampling of participants (objective and mentioned reasons) that created the biasbetween the smaller group (178) of security personnel participants against the largergroup of (190) police officers participants, we compared the obtained relative valuesof results. However, the findings of this research can help us assess situations andimprove police and private security relations, as a basis for further research, espe-cially in developing countries in transition, but also in countries where there is along tradition of private security.
Reference – Janković, B., Cvetković, V. M., Milojević, S., & Ivanović, Z. (2021). Relations between police and private security officers: a case study of Serbia. Security journal. doi:10.1057/s41284-021-00289-z
Public perception of police behaviors in the disaster COVID-19
Abstract: The aim of the study is to determine the perception of general public on the Serbian police behaviors in combating COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the perception of the citizens how successful the police units were in fulfilling their tasks. Design/methodology/approach: Due to the state of emergency declared due to COVID-19 pandemic, in particular the restriction of movement and the need for social distance, the data collection for this study had to be conducted via the online survey platform (Google.doc). The study was conducted during March–April 2020, only four weeks after the state of emergency was declared. The participants were invited to complete the online questionnaire in their native language by using the snowball sampling strategy focused on recruiting the general public via social media tools. Findings: Considering the fact that police officers are not sufficiently prepared and trained to respond in these specific circumstances, it is necessary to improve their engagement in the future by conducting appropriate training, procuring adequate resources, implementing adequate planning activities, etc. The results of the multivariate regressions of public perception preparedness subscale show that the most important predictor is gender and it explains 23.6% of the variance in preparedness subscale. The remaining variables did not have significant effects on preparedness. This model with all mentioned independent variables explains 6.1% of the variance of preparedness subscale. Originality/value: Bearing in mind that there were no completed studies on public perception of police behaviors about the COVID-19 disaster in Serbia, the research has a considerable scientific and social importance.
Conclusion: Studies related to the role of the police during an epidemic have not been found in theliterature so far. The aim of the authors was to determine how citizens see the work of thepolice during the pandemic. The research proved that the police play an important role incombating the COVID-19 pandemic; the citizens trust the police, but the officers are nottrained enough for work in such an emergency. In the following period, more attention shouldbe paid to the education of police officers for performing tasks during various disasters asepidemics and pandemics. It is necessary to implement training for police officers, startingfrom the use of protective equipment (putting it on/taking off), recognizing symptoms of thedisease and treating citizens infected with a particular virus. In addition to training, policeunits must have sufficient material resources (masks, gloves, safety glasses, etc.) from thefirst moment of the epidemic. It is necessary to establish work plans in such an emergencysituation so that in the future it is clear who, how and when to act, in order to avoid situationsin which police officers act differently, sometimes inappropriately, in the field. Theorganization of work must be adapted to new situations. In order to reduce the possibletransmission of viruses among police officers, shifts of police officers should start and end atdifferent times. The number of shifts during 24 h should be reduced, e.g. by extending patrolwork from 8 to 12 h. Police officers who have a history of chronic diseases should be sent tothe annual or paid leave.The flaw of the survey would be that it is limited to the territory of Serbia and does nothave a large sample of respondents. Notwithstanding the foregoing, this research may be thestarting point for conducting future research, especially comparative ones, those that willpresent the role of police during the pandemic in other countries. It would contribute toimproving police behavior by identifying best practices during the pandemic, but also byhighlighting the mistakes of police units during the previous period.
Reference – Janković, B., & Cvetković Vladimir, M. (2020). Public perception of police behaviors in the disaster COVID-19 – The case of Serbia. Policing: An International Journal, 43(6), 979-992. doi:10.1108/PIJPSM-05-2020-0072
Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia – a study from selected municipalities
This article presents the results of a qualitative study of household earthquake and community-level preparedness in Serbia and its relationship to various demographic factors. A series of 1,018 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in eight Serbian municipalities. The results show that the population is generally unprepared, with low percentages of reported enhanced preparedness levels. In addition to presenting its findings, the study also considers future research directions, including using this study as a basis for more detailed research and to assist in facilitating community-led programs and strategies to increase earthquake safety. Keywords: geography, natural hazards, earthquake, preparedness, household, survey, Serbia.
Conslusion: Taken together, this study contributes new information that can be used to assist in local and national emergency management communication to improve household earthquake preparedness. The fact that a relatively low number of participants in this study reported perceptions, knowledge, or actual preparedness behaviors suggests complacency in terms of earthquake prevention, mitigation, and preparedness in particular, and, in our opinion, low general readiness for a range of hazards. The importance of focusing on human risk perceptions, decision-making, and behavior processes in preparedness is a focal point of this study. Knowledge about the differences between social groups in terms of socioeconomic characteristics such as sex and age or health status is a precursor to tapping into the cognitive, emotional, and behavioral functioning of individuals in relation to prevention, mitigation, and preparedness for earthquakes and other hazards. Thus, these findings suggest demographic profiles in which some have relative strengths. A prominent example across the categories examined is that women reported more actual behavioral preparedness whereas men reported more perceptions and knowledge. Limitations of this study include the fact that the findings presented are mainly descriptive. Future research should evaluate not only individual factors but also social and community factors. At the same time, the sample was reasonably large and as such it offered initial basic findings that can promote more detailed future investigations. Such future research should examine the factors that affect the preparedness for earthquakes and other events, and factors improving preparedness, including more psychological (e.g., self-efficacy and behavioral intentions) and social (e.g., collective helping) constructs. Such information might then be used as a starting point to design programs to improve household preparedness for earthquakes and other hazard events. A critical issue in emergency management education and communication is how to help a population, including those with increased vulnerability, and knowing how to respond during an earthquake to protect oneself and others. One international initiative, ShakeOut (Internet 1), could be used to help people not only learn more about protecting themselves effectively during an earthquake but also to facilitate more effective preparedness. This initiative was used to assist over fifty-five million people more effectively prepare for earthquakes in 2016. In addition, it can be used for more extensive disaster risk reduction and education in classrooms (e.g., Johnson et al. 2014) and community settings (e.g., a national effort carried out regularly in New Zealand; Internet 2).
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Ronan, K., Shaw, R., Filipović, M., Mano, R., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2019). Household earthquake preparedness in Serbia: A study of selected municipalities. Acta Geographica, 59(2), 28-42. doi:10.3986/ags.5445
Knowledge and Perception of Secondary School Students in Belgrade about Earthquakes as Natural Disasters
Abstract: The aim of this quantitative research is to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to earthquakes as a natural disaster and security threat, and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors used a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about earthquakes. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3,063 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), which equates to 4.67% of the population. The results show that the sources of information on natural disasters and their threatening consequences influence the perceptions of secondary school students. In view of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. This research is the first step in developing and realizing a future strategy for natural disaster management by informing and including public (school population), scientific, and administrative communities in the process.
Conclusion: When considering the results of the previously conducted analyses, it is concluded that the sources of information about natural disasters (family, school, television, Internet, radio, video games, and lectures) influence the perceptions of secondary school students with respect to their knowledge about earthquakes such that those respondents who acquired a statistically significantly higher percentage of information believe they know what an earthquake is. One exception is video games, as they influence the perception of knowledge in a way that respondents who have not played feel they know what an earthquake is, whereas those who have played video games believe that they do not know what an earthquake is. Also, the exception is the radio as a source of information, which is used by secondary school students to a lesser extent and which does not affect the attitude of the respondents. Accordingly, we conclude that the actual knowledge of secondary school students about earthquakes is affected by lectures, school, television, and the Internet, and it is not affected by radio, video games, or stories from family members. A statistically higher percentage of those with no personal experience with the consequences of natural disasters do not know what an earthquake is. Although the personal experiences of those respondents who have witnessed the consequences of earthquakes affect their knowledge of earthquakes, personal experiences of the effects of landslides tend to mislead the subjects such that, for the most part, their knowledge of earthquakes is not affected and they still do not know what constitutes an earthquake. This result is plausible for two reasons: first, people learn best from personal experience, and second, as the effects of earthquakes and landslides are manifested through the movement and shifting of soil, it is expected that respondents describe the consequences of an earthquake. However, the experiences of immediate family members, for the most part, do not affect the knowledge of the respondents as to what constitutes an earthquake (with the exception of the father). This is likely because, in Serbia (and therefore in Belgrade), families are predominantly patriarchal. Thus, the father is the head of the family and the person responsible for the safety of the family, and as such, it is logical that the father transfers his personal experiences to his children with special interest due to his concern that they remain safe in the event of a natural disaster. Secondary school students who do not feel safe from natural disasters while at school, to a greater extent, exhibit a lack of understanding and knowledge with respect to what constitutes an earthquake. Moreover, there is a dependence between the knowledge the respondents have about earthquakes and their desire to learn more about natural disasters. In other words, a statistically higher percentage of those students who know what an earthquake is indicate a desire to enhance their knowledge. It is further noted that there is a dependent relationship between the variables “acquisition of knowledge about natural disasters through educational films and series” and “knowledge about earthquakes.” Therefore, the level of knowledge of secondary school students with respect to the earthquake as a natural disaster is influenced by television, the Internet, and school lectures. Thus, it is suggested that encouraging secondary school students in Belgrade to participate in the clean-up and rebuilding of an area after an earthquake would increase their knowledge of the consequences of such disasters. Moreover, increasing the knowledge of secondary school students would, in turn, affect their sense of security. The results suggest that secondary school students who know what an earthquake is and are aware of the possible dangers of natural disasters have an increased desire to further their learning. Thus, secondary school students should be trained primarily through educational films and series.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Dragićević, S., Petrović, M., Mijaković, S., Jakovljević, V., & Gačić, J. (2015). Knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about earthquakes as natural disasters. Polish journal of environmental studies, 24(4), 1553-1561. doi:10.15244/pjoes/39702
Citizens attitudes about emergency situations caused by epidemics in Serbia
Epidemics increasingly threaten the safety and health of people. As such, epidemics more and more begin to attract the attention of researchers in the field of emergencies who want to know them better. Starting from the impact of the epidemics on humans, the authors present the results of a quantitative survey of citizens’ attitudes and influencing factors on emergencies caused by epidemics in Serbia. Thereby, the survey focused on the examination of: knowledge of citizens about epidemics and the proper ways to respond; citizens’ preparedness for epidemics; and having a first aid kit. 2500 people from the area of 19 out of the total number of 190 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multistage sampling (personal interview). Survey results show that only 43.1% of respondents know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves from epidemics. The mean value of citizens’ preparedness to respond is 2.98 out of 5 and 28.2% of respondents are absolutely unprepared to respond. The results show that in higher percentage know what epidemics are and proper way to respond: women compared to men; respondents with university degrees compared to those who have completed primary school; respondents who have completed high school with honors compared to respondents who have completed high school with good grades, etc. Starting from the unexamined citizens’ attitudes on epidemics in Serbia, the research has original scientific and social significance. The research results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond to emergencies caused by epidemics.
Epidemics increasingly threaten the safety and health of people. As such, epidemics more and more begin to attract the attention of researchers in the field of emergencies who want to know them better. Natural disasters contribute to the spread of many serious food and water borne diseases, primarily due to compromised or disrupted water and sewage systems (1). Poor hygiene can be a huge challenge immediately after a natural disaster, especially if the victims are displaced and/or find refuge in shelters (2). Infectious diseases were detected in 85% of all of patients, predominantly malaria, respiratory infectious diseases, and diarrhea (3). The twentieth century in Europe remains remembered for the Spanish flu pandemic which caused more victims than World War I, while Serbia had the great epidemic of typhus during World War I in 1915 and the epidemic of smallpox in 1972, which was recorded as the largest post-war epidemic in Europe. Today, smallpox again represents a threat due to the vulnerability of the population (4).
Starting from the impact of the epidemics on humans, the authors present the results of a quantitative survey of citizens’ attitudes and influencing factors on emergencies caused by epidemics in Serbia. Thereby, the survey focused on the examination of: knowledge of citizens about epidemics and the proper ways to respond; citizens’ preparedness for epidemics; and having a first aid kit. A series of 2,500 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the whole of 2015 in 19 municipalities of the Serbia. These communities were chosen for their different demographic and social characteristics being a census-based representation of the whole population of Serbia.
In the past, the right to education on emergency situations was not affirmed and recognized (5). Given the importance of citizens’ knowledge about epidemics for improvement of their response in emergencies, respondents were asked the following questions: “Do you know what epidemics are and how to protect yourself against them? Of those surveyed, 43.1% of the respondents said that they know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves against them, 26.6% were not sure and 24.7% did not know. Less than half of respondents know what epidemics are and how to protect themselves against epidemics. The results indicate a serious security problem, considering the knowledge as a prerequisite for an effective response in such situations. The results of Chi-square test of independence show that there is a statistically significant correlation between knowledge about epidemics and how to protect against them with the following variables: gender, age, level of education, level of mother education, level of father education, marital status, parental status, fear of disaster, personal disability, employment status, income level of households, level of religiousness, previous experience, volunteering, military status regulated. On the other side, there is no such correlation with variable called living with a disabled. The results of Chi-square test of independence show that there is a statistically significant correlation with all mentioned variables except volunteering and military status regulated. In higher percentage know what epidemics are and proper way to respond: women (47.8%), with university degrees (54%), who have finished high school with honors (59%), married (53.6%), who are parents (52%), who are not disabled (47%), employed (50.7%), who feel fear (50%), with previous experience (61.1%). Consequences of disaster are impossible to avoid. However, an adequate system of management can mitigate them. Preparation of citizens for disaster is influenced by a variety of social and individual factors. Thereby, these directly or indirectly affect the citizens to implement, take or develop preparedness measures for responding in such situations. Understanding their influence is an important step towards devising ways of raising the level of citizens’ preparedness. The results indicate that the mean of citizen preparedness for responding is 2.98 out of 5. Descriptive statistical analyses show that 28.2% of respondents answered that they are unprepared to respond, 44% were not sure and 26.6% that they are prepared. A very small number of respondents said that they are prepared for responding to emergencies caused by epidemics. In higher percentage prepared respodents are: men (32.4%), with university degrees (29.4%), have completed high school with very good grades (27.2%), in relationships (32.7%), not parents (32%), take care of a disabled person (34%), without disabilities (26.7%), who feel fear (29%). The citizens also were asked if they have a first aid kit. Of all respondents, 47% have a first aid kit at home, 37.8% were not sure and 25.2% do not have. The results of Chi-square test of independence show that there is a statistically significant correlation with all mentioned variables except gender, level of father education, personal disability, previous experience. In a higher percentage a first aid kit have respodents: university-educated (55.4%), finished secondary school with honors (56%), divorced (53.7%), parents (54%), employed (52%), respondents who feel fear (55%).
Starting from the unexamined citizens’ attitudes on epidemics in Serbia, the research has original scientific and social significance. The results of this study suggest that knowledge of citizens can be improved through educational television or radio shows which would inform citizens about possible epidemics. Starting from the presented research results, it is necessary to devise campaigns and programs aimed at improving the citizens knowledge and preparedness for epidemics.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Ristanović, E., & Gačić, J. (2018). Citizens Attitudes about the Emergency Situations Caused by Epidemics in Serbia. Iranian Journal of Public Health, 47(8), 1213-1214.
Gender differences in stress intensity and coping strategies among students – Future emergency relief specialists
Introduction. Assisting students face high academic demands which, together with interpersonal, intrapersonal and professional requirements, can be a significant source of stress. The aim of the research was to examine the intensity and frequency of the source of stress, coping strategies and identify gender differences among students, future assisting professionals. Methods. An observational, cross-sectional study was conducted amongst the students of the University of the Belgrade Faculty of Security (Serbia) who, after graduation, will acquire the title of a security manager responsible for human resources in the civil sector. The data were collected in the period October/November 2018. The authorized questionnaire SSM-30 by Jović (Stress scale for the young – 30) was used, which enables students to assess the tress situations intensity on a scale from 1 (minimum) to 10 (maximum intensity). The SSM-30 questionnaire is a combination of the standard Life Events Scale – Holmes Rashe Life Events Scale, also known as the Social readjustment Rating Scale and life events characteristic for the student population. The questionnaire also included the sample demographic characteristics –gender, and a year of study. The SSM-30 scale includes a list of stressful events and stress coping mechanisms shown in the results. Results. The most common sources of stress in both genders were social and academic ones: death in the family, critical illness in the family, an accident of a person I love, unwanted pregnancy, lie by lose people, disagreement with parents, loss of a study year, crisis, uncertainty after graduation and partner’sinfidelity. The most frequently used mechanisms for controlling and overcoming stress were mostly social: talking with friends, listening to music, family support, frequent walks, socializing and going out, using the Internet, frequent sleep, intense physical activity, crying and relaxation. Statistically significant differences between the gender – female students demonstrated self-worth of higher intensity during the majority of stressful situations, as they use different stress coping mechanisms from their male students. Conclusion. The results obtained with regard to the assessment of stressors and the use of specific mechanisms for coping indicate the necessary additional education of students in this field in order to be more focused and open for free professional help, when necessary.
Conclusion: The conducted research is a study of the perception of stressful life situations and the impact of gender differences on experiencing stress in the population of the Faculty of Security – University of Belgrade, who are studying for the position of security managers responsible for the protection of human resources safety and health. The survey included respondents of all four years of study, with a female population dominating the sample (77.4% vs. 22.6%), which is in line with data from other surveys on prevalent female students at most faculties in our country and in the world educating assistingprofessionals (assistant professions) (21, 24, 25). Reference data show that feminine gender is a significant independent predictor of stress perception, that is, a higher stress response (24, 26, 27), which means that these gender differences are not specific to students who are educated for future emergency care specialists (20, 21). Most situations of high-ranking stress levels arise from non-academic sources, mainly from family relationships, relationships with people important to students (friends, family members, partners) and socio-economic problems. Our study showed that girls evaluated the majority of stressful situations on the SSM-30 scale statistically significantly more intensively than boys (in 27 out of 30 items, with the exception of three items: Breaking Friendship, Greatmaterial loss and Partner’s infidelity) (Table 1). A possible explanation for the differences found is that it is easier for a feminine gender to express their feelings related to stressful situations, unlike the young men, and it seems that girls express their emotions more turbulently. Blanch and associates in the revised literature review of gender differences among students in the US in terms of self-confidence find that female students have a lower level of self-confidence and a higher level of anxiety in relation to male students, which can also be one of the reasons for a more turbulent response to stress. Gender-specific approach to programs for cognitive-behavioral stress management (28) is also based on these findings. Students who are studying for assistingprofessionsmust meet high academic requirements which, together with interpersonal, intrapersonal and professional requirements, can be an important source of stress. Interpersonal stresses include: insufficient interest in a particular field, subject or task, negative thoughts arising from the review of their own behavior, feelings related to changes of their own bodies and dissatisfaction with their own appearance (5), relationships with the roommates, unwanted pregnancy of female students, sexual problems, relationships with the opposite sex (29). These stressors include also divorce, unemployment, illness or death of parents, excessive expectations from parents, friends and close relatives, or insufficient social support, which ultimately can lead to disappointment or lead to depression and change in interpersonal relationships (11). Intrapersonal stressors: related to public appearances, changes in eating habits, new way of managing finances and often lack of money (30,31,and 32). Our results have shown that they are highly ranked on the scale of stress. Social stressors such as Death in a family, Criticalillness in a family, Accident of a loved person.Unwanted pregnancy, Lie by a close persons, Disagreement with parents, Lack of money, Economic crisis, and Partner’s infidelity. Sreeramareddy and associates state that the most significant and most frequently cited psychosocial sources of stress for medical students were family separation and dwelling in a students’ dormitory, too high expectations from parents, a transient curriculum, and a lack of time and conditions for fun (33). Situations of an Accident of a loved person and Partner’s infidelity are on the 3rd and 10th place among the students in our research, and are also highly quoted in the research of Muirhead and Locker, where 60% of students stated that they were under stress due to problems in relations with the opposite sex (34). Academic sources of stress are also high on the list of stressful life events of faculty students educated for assistingprofessionals (25). Academic stressors include: change of the educational environment (35) the way of organizing obligations during the semester (11.36) inadequate material for the preparation of the exam (37), unclear tasks and uncomfortable classrooms, relationships with faculty employees and time pressures can also be sources of stress 16) as well as the need for constant self-control and the development of better thinking skills, including specific techniques/learning methods. Students under stress show signs of emotional suffering, aggressive behavior, shyness, social phobia, depression, anxiety, suicidal thoughts, concentration drop and often lack of interest in common activities. Additionally, the stressors can include the obligation to pay tuition fees, as well as potential doing business (employment) while complying with student obligations, (38), and taking care of an unclear future (39). Of the academic stressors in our research, the highly ranked are aLoss of study year, Uncertainty after graduation and Exams and grading (Table 1), and similar results are often cited in literature (24, 40, 41). Moffat and associates state that the main stressors for students were more often related to professional training, individual learning, progressduring the year, achievements and availability of literature, than to personal problems (40). In addition to these situations, the papers from the available literature state that intensive stress for students is also associated with the following situations: pressure to perfectly perform skills related to working with clients, overloading obligations, belief in their own efficiency at work (18), day fulfilled by the obligations and lack of free time for relaxation (41); double obligation – the role of a student and the role of a spouse at the same time (34), which the respondents in our study did not cite as a significant source of stress, would be among the top 15 on the list of life events. The most frequently used mechanisms for stress control by students in our study are: Conversation with friends, Listening to music, Family support, Frequent walks, Socializing and going out,or using social support mechanisms (Table 2), which is in line with research by other authors 1, 24, 29, 42). It is therefore important to promote social support among students, especially among those with a low level of support. Students without social support find alternate support as a protective factor in order to build resilience and face the stress more efficiently. Peer support especially reduces stress and is advocated as a valid method of stress management among students.However, this strategy is just one aspect of a wider solution and it is necessary to comprehensively examine the problem at the institutional level. Alarmingis the result of our study that an extremely small number of students addresses an expert (psychologist or psychiatrist) to seek professional help, and that a significant percentage of them, primarily male students, use ineffective and harmful health mechanisms, such as the use of alcohol, tobacco and illegal drugs, which can also be a socio-cultural feature of the social milieu. Stressors during study can affect the quality of life and satisfaction with life, as well as the results of exams, and later the reduced efficiency in their future assisting profession (22, 23), therefore, the implementation of preventive measures in this area is extremely important, based on stress assessment and stress coping mechanisms. The significance and contribution of the study to the investigated problem is that in our country, as far as the authors are informed, no research in stress and coping mechanisms has been conducted so far, with the examination of gender differences in non-medical students for the assisting profession. It is recommended to students with discovered high overall stress levels tocomplete standardized questionnaires for the diagnosis of anxiety and depression, for the purpose of selecting a category of students requiring expert assistance in coping with psychological problems. The limitations of the study are related to the fact that this is a cross sectional study carried out at one faculty. It would be useful to conduct a prospective study, as well as to compare self-assessmentsof stress among medical and non-medical assisting professionals in order to plan specific education and preventive measures for certain types of assisting professions. The results of this study have shown the high frequency and intensity of self-assessment of stress among the examined students. The most prominent are social stressors,followed bythe academic ones. The most frequently used mechanisms of stress management by students in our study were social support mechanisms: Conversation with friends,Listening to music, Family support, Frequent walks, Hanging and going out. The results obtained with regard to the assessment of stressors and the use of specific mechanisms of coping indicate the necessary additional education of students in this field in order to be more focused and free to seek professional help, when necessary.
Reference – Gačić, J., Jović, J. S., Terzić, N., Cvetković, V., Terzić, M., Stojanović, D., & Stojanović, G. (2021). Gender differences in stress intensity and coping strategies among students – Future emergency relief specialist. Vojnosanitetski pregled/ Military-medical and pharmaceutical review, 78(6), 635-641.
Tactical Approaches to Protection and Rescue in Traffic Accident-Induced Disasters
Abstract: This study delves into the complex challenges that arise when managing rescue operations in the aftermath of traffic accidents spanning various forms of transportation, including roads, railways, aviation, and waterways. Given the inherent complexity of traffic-related disasters, these events typically necessitate well-coordinated rescue strategies, involving the collaboration of multiple emergency services and the use of specialized equipment. The legal framework set forth by the Republic of Serbia plays a pivotal role in shaping the procedures and responsibilities within these rescue efforts, guiding the allocation of resources, enforcing safety protocols, and ensuring effective coordination between different agencies. Moreover, the incorporation of innovative technical solutions is critical in successfully extricating victims from perilous situations. This paper also underscores the vital importance of preventive measures, particularly in road traffic, which are mandated by national legislation. The establishment of specialized investigative bodies, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, has greatly enhanced the systematic approach to preventing future incidents. By examining the various components of rescue operations, this research highlights the essential role of timely and efficient interventions in minimizing casualties and mitigating the broader impacts of traffic disasters.
Conclusion: Effectively managing rescue operations in the wake of traffic accident-induced disasters re-quires a multifaceted and well-coordinated approach. This approach integrates legal frameworks, cutting-edge technical solutions, and the combined efforts of various emergency response agen-cies. Whether these disasters occur on roads, railways, in the air, or on waterways, they present a complex array of challenges. The sheer scale of potential casualties, coupled with hazardous con-ditions, makes these situations particularly difficult to handle. Therefore, the strict observance of safety protocols, the readiness of well-prepared rescue teams, and the deployment of specialized equipment are all crucial elements that cannot be overlooked. In the Republic of Serbia, the legal foundation for organizing and executing rescue operations is laid out in the Law on the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Railway, and Waterway Transport. This legal structure defines the roles and responsibilities of various agencies, sets out clear inves-tigative procedures, and ensures that accountability is maintained throughout the rescue and recovery process. Such a legal framework is indispensable for ensuring that all stakeholders work together seamlessly during high-stress, time-sensitive situations. This paper also highlights the pivotal role of preventive measures, especially in road traffic, which remains the most frequent and dangerous mode of transportation. National laws not only dictate the safety standards that must be adhered to but also enforce the adoption of advanced safety technologies in vehicles. These innovations—ranging from reinforced vehicle structures to sophisticated airbag systems—have proven instrumental in reducing the severity of injuries and fatalities when accidents occur. However, despite these technological advancements, the unpre-dictable nature of traffic accidents underscores the ongoing need for preparedness and quick, well-coordinated responses to minimize harm. The creation of specialized entities, such as the Traffic Accident Investigation Center, repre-sents a major advancement in the systematic approach to accident investigation and prevention. These organizations play a crucial role in strengthening safety protocols across all modes of transport. Additionally, they provide key insights into the causes of accidents, which can then be used to inform future prevention strategies. By maintaining their operational independence and focusing on thorough investigations, these centers contribute to meaningful improvements in transportation safety. However, the effectiveness of rescue operations extends beyond legal frameworks and technical innovations. Success hinges on having well-trained and well-equipped rescue teams that can respond efficiently and effectively to a wide range of disaster scenarios. The deployment of these teams, often in hazardous and unpredictable environments, requires careful coordination to avoid adding further risks to both the rescuers and the victims. Strong inter-agency collaboration, clear communication channels, and robust logistical support are fundamental components of any successful rescue effort.
Moreover, this paper emphasizes the ongoing need for innovation in rescue operations. New technologies, such as advanced extrication tools and enhanced protective gear, are vital for ad-dressing increasingly complex accident situations, particularly those involving hazardous materi-als. Incorporating these technologies into standard rescue practices can significantly improve the effectiveness of response efforts and lead to better outcomes for those affected by accidents. traffic accident-induced disasters demand a strong and adaptable approach to rescue opera-tions. By continually refining legal frameworks, advancing technical capabilities, and fostering collaboration among emergency response agencies, we can build a more resilient disaster man-agement system capable of protecting lives and reducing the devastating impacts of these inci-dents. The lessons learned from past disasters should guide ongoing efforts to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery, ultimately contributing to safer and more resilient trans-portation networks.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1
Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction
Abstract: Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) plays a vital role in strengthening the re-silience of local communities against both natural and human-made disasters. This paper seeks to examine the role of CBDRR in enhancing the resilience of local communities to both natural and man-made disasters. It underscores the critical importance of active community involvement across all stages of disaster management, from preparedness and mitigation to response and re-covery. The paper also explores the key factors that contribute to the successful implementation of CBDRR, including institutional backing, capacity development, inclusive strategies, and the use of modern technologies. Additionally, it discusses the challenges and opportunities in building strong partnerships between local communities and external stakeholders, which are crucial for ensuring the sustainability of these efforts. Finally, the paper offers recommendations aimed at improving the effectiveness of CBDRR initiatives, drawing on insights gained from past disaster experiences. The findings of this study point to the importance of continuous monitoring and evaluation of CBDRR programs to maintain their relevance and ensure their effectiveness as risks evolve. Incorporating lessons learned from past disasters into future planning also plays a crucial role in helping communities enhance their resilience over time. Ultimately, by encouraging col-laboration between communities, governments, and various organizations, CBDRR lays the foundation for a comprehensive disaster management framework that is equipped to meet future challenges and supports long-term sustainable development.
Conclusion: The deployment of Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) programs has proven to be an effective means of strengthening communities’ resilience to disasters. By prioritizing active community engagement, developing locally tailored solutions, and fostering collaboration with external partners, CBDRR empowers communities to better manage their disaster preparedness and response efforts. However, the success of these initiatives hinges on several key factors, in-cluding ongoing institutional support, continuous capacity building through education and train-ing, and the integration of modern technologies. Moreover, ensuring that planning and imple-mentation processes are inclusive and participatory is crucial for safeguarding the interests of all community members, particularly those who are most vulnerable.
To maximize the effectiveness of CBDRR programs, it is essential to establish dependable communication systems that enable the timely sharing of risk-related information. Additionally, focusing on long-term strategies that weave disaster risk reduction into the community’s routine activities can help sustain these efforts over time. Strengthening partnerships between local communities and various organizations is another vital element, as it can provide access to addi-tional resources, expertise, and improved coordination during disaster response operations. In light of the growing challenges posed by climate change and the increasing frequency of disasters, adopting a comprehensive, community-centred approach to disaster risk management is essential for building resilient communities that can effectively respond to and recover from future crises.
Equally important is the ongoing monitoring and evaluation of CBDRR programs to ensure they remain relevant and effective over time. By regularly reassessing the risks and needs of the community, programs can be adjusted to stay responsive to evolving circumstances. Additionally, incorporating lessons learned from previous disasters into future planning efforts allows com-munities to build on their experiences and further enhance their resilience. This adaptive approach not only improves the immediate effectiveness of disaster risk reduction efforts but also fosters a culture of continuous learning and improvement. Therefore, creating an environment where feedback and innovation are actively integrated into CBDRR programs is crucial for ensuring their long-term success and sustainability amid growing disaster risks.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202408.1544.v1
Challenges and Obstacles in the Use of Search and Rescue Dogs During Disaster Operations: A Case Study of the Earthquake in Turkey
Abstract: Deploying search and rescue (SAR) dogs in disaster situations is crucial for effective rescue missions. This study delves into the challenges and obstacles encountered during the use of SAR dogs, particularly focusing on the earthquake that hit Turkey in February 2023. By employing a case study approach, the research explores various factors that impact the efficiency and safety of SAR dog operations, such as environmental conditions, equipment needs, cultural perceptions, and logistical hurdles. Environmental conditions such as extreme weather, hazardous materials, and unstable structures present significant risks to both the dogs and their handlers. The adequacy of equipment, including protective gear and medical supplies, is critical for ensuring the safety and efficiency of rescue operations. Logistical challenges, including the transportation and care of dogs in disaster zones, further complicate their deployment. Cultural barriers also play a crucial role, as perceptions of dogs vary widely across different communities, potentially affecting the acceptance and integration of canine units in rescue efforts. The case study of the earthquake in Turkey highlights these issues, showcasing the successes and setbacks experienced by international rescue teams. The findings indicate that although SAR dogs are invaluable in locating survivors, they face significant dangers, including hazardous materials, extreme weather, and physical injuries. Additionally, cultural differences and logistical issues complicate their deployment. This paper highlights the necessity for improved training, protective measures, and international standards to ensure SAR dogs’ well-being and effectiveness in disaster response efforts. The study’s implications suggest that addressing these challenges can markedly enhance the preparedness and resilience of SAR teams, leading to more efficient and safer rescue operations in future disaster scenarios.
Conclusion: The role of search and rescue (SAR) dogs during natural and man-made disasters has proven indispensable in locating survivors. Research from the earthquake in Turkey in February 2023 reveals many challenges faced by rescue teams using these dogs. Harsh weather, hazardous materials, unstable structures, and various logistical and cultural issues all affect the efficiency and safety of operations. Despite these hurdles, SAR dogs remain essential due to their unique ability to find survivors when other methods fail. To ensure their effectiveness and safety, it’s crucial to enhance training, protective measures, and international standards for both dogs and their handlers. Providing necessary equipment like protective gear and medical supplies is vital for successful missions. Logistical issues, including transporting and caring for dogs in disaster areas, complicate their use. Detailed logistical planning is essential to maintain their well-being. Cultural barriers, affecting how dogs are perceived in different communities, also play a significant role. Educating locals about the importance of SAR dogs can improve their acceptance and integration into rescue efforts. The study concludes that better training, protective measures, and international standards are needed to ensure SAR dogs’ well-being and effectiveness. Tackling these challenges can greatly enhance SAR teams’ preparedness and resilience, leading to more efficient and safer rescue operations in future disasters. Additionally, the research underscores the importance of international cooperation among rescue teams. Sharing experiences and knowledge can lead to better methods and strategies for using SAR dogs. Such cooperation can also help standardize procedures and training, boosting the efficiency and safety of rescue missions. Attention to the psychological state of SAR dogs and their handlers is also critical. Prolonged stress and extreme conditions can harm their mental health. Regular breaks, mental stimulation, and adequate support can maintain high operational readiness. Psychological support for handlers and dogs should be part of training and operational procedures. Lastly, technology increasingly supports SAR operations. Integrating advanced tech like drones and tracking systems can significantly improve coordination and efficiency. These tools help pinpoint survivors more accurately and enhance team safety. Ongoing research and new technologies will further boost SAR operations’ efficiency. In summary, the study highlights the need for ongoing research and strategy development to improve SAR dogs’ working conditions and protection, directly enhancing rescue operations’ overall efficiency and lifesaving potential.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Miljković, N. (2024). Challenges and Obstacles in the Use of Search and Rescue Dogs During Disaster Operations: A Case Study of the Earthquake in Turkey. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.1177.v1
Optimising Disaster Resilience Through Advanced Risk Management and Financial Analysis of Critical Infrastructure in the Serbian Defence Industry
Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the financial factors and risk management strategies essential for optimizing disaster resilience within the Serbian defence industry’s critical infrastructure. The significance of this sector is multi-faceted, impacting national security, economic stability, and technological advancement. Primarily, the Serbian defence industry ensures the preservation of vital defence interests, maintaining Serbia’s independence from foreign sources for weapons and military equipment in both peacetime and wartime. Economically, it is a significant employer of the working-age population, directly affecting local employment rates, fostering economic development, and ensuring the sustainable growth of this crucial sector. This, in turn, stimulates broader economic activity and enhances social cohesion while strengthening the national balance of payments through increased export potential. From a technological perspective, the defence industry drives scientific, technological, and industrial development, reinforcing Serbia’s global political and military standing within the Western Balkans and on the international stage. Consequently, the paper aims to examine the risk management and protection of the Serbian defence industry’s critical infrastructure, offering concrete and actionable measures to improve and develop these systems with a particular emphasis on security. The research’s utility and contribution lie in identifying similarities and differences in the operational performance of defence industry companies, a vital segment of the national economy. The presentation of these findings focuses on the protection of critical infrastructure. The results will form the basis for further investigation into the underlying causes of business performance and the effective management of critical infrastructure security.
Conclusion: The impact of infrastructure disruption is typically quantified in terms of aggregated figures that represent economic losses. This approach allows policymakers to evaluate various disruption scenarios, including cascading effects across sectors, and to assess the costs and benefits of mitigation measures (Giannopoulos et al., 2012). A comprehensive risk assessment is achievable when the impact data is combined with the likelihood of these scenarios. Without this information, the analysis remains an impact assessment and cannot effectively prioritize risk mitigation measures, especially for High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. A significant challenge for risk assessment methodologies is to address these gaps and develop a harmonized framework at the national level, extending to the defense industry. Such a framework should accurately capture interdependencies across different infrastructures, sectors, and borders—a critical requirement for the West Balkan countries in coordination with EU critical infrastructure policies and strategies. Additionally, there must be consensus on a common risk metric across sectors. In summary, risk assessment for critical infrastructures should be an integral part of a broader framework, with resilience analysis as the primary tool. The continuation of this work at the national level in Serbia should focus on proposing a resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructures, where risk assessment serves as a subset to bridge the gaps identified in this research. The social and economic stability of the world now heavily relies on the reliable supply of basic goods and services, transported and distributed through extensive technological network infrastructures. National security today depends significantly on these capacities, including the smooth functioning of the defense industry’s complexes, as seen in Serbia. These critical infrastructures are subject to potential disruptive factors from hazardous natural and human environments, such as the global political climate, human capital, financial crises, severe damage, explosions in warehouses, and organized (cyber) crime or cyber warfare (Zio, 2016). The infrastructure systems within the Serbian defense industry are exposed to numerous external and internal influences, creating a potential base from which dangerous hazards and harmful events can quickly and globally spread throughout the system. This has increased systemic risk exposure, characterized by cascading failures that can significantly impact both national and regional levels. Indeed, significant disruptions have highlighted the need for the protection and resilience of critical infrastructures as a national and international priority. In conclusion, the integrity, economic, and security stability of Serbia is closely tied to the state and developmental potential of the defense industry. Its rapid development and integration into national and international economic flows, through the acquisition of new technologies, has been recognized as a vital element of Serbia’s national security policy. Aligning with European standards and regulations, and establishing preventive and control mechanisms for critical defense infrastructure, are fundamental prerequisites for maintaining the integrity of defense, security, and foreign policy interests, as well as enhancing the overall credibility of Serbia. Given the context of global, regional, and internal threats, developing adequate mechanisms for the protection of critical infrastructure has become a national security priority for Serbia.
Reference – Vidović, N., Beriša, H., & Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Optimising Disaster Resilience Through Advanced Risk Management and Financial Analysis of Critical Infrastructure in the Serbian Defence Industry. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.1228.v1
In-Depth Analysis of Disaster (Risk) Management System in Serbia: A Critical Examination of Systemic Strengths and Weaknesses
Abstract: This study comprehensively explores Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management System, aiming to critically evaluate its inherent strengths and weaknesses. Using descriptive-analytical methods and qualitative interpretation, SWOT analysis was applied to collect data from scientific papers, books, and institutional reports. This study delves deeply into the nuances of Serbia’s Disaster Management Framework, revealing a nuanced landscape of strengths, weaknesses, and strategic improvement opportunities. Identified strengths underscore a robust foundation characterized by proficient professionals, state-of-the-art technology, and cohesive teamwork, all pivotal for effective emergency preparedness and response. Conversely, weaknesses underscore pressing imperatives for enhancements in regulatory enforcement, resource allocation, and infrastructure upgrades, presently hampering the framework’s efficacy and response readiness. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on disaster risk management and serves as a catalyst for further scholarly inquiry and policy formulation. By mapping out the structure of Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management Framework and integrating diverse data sources, the study enriches theoretical models and lays the groundwork for practical policy interventions. Its findings, including precise recommendations for policy reform and strategic improvements, provide valuable insights for policymakers, emergency management experts, and stakeholders seeking to enhance disaster preparedness and response capabilities on both national and global scales. Conclusion: This research thoroughly explores the intricacies of Serbia’s Disaster Management Framework, uncovering a complex array of strengths, weaknesses, and areas ripe for strategic improvement. The strengths identified highlight a solid base marked by skilled professionals, cutting-edge technology, and effective teamwork, all crucial for proficient emergency preparedness and response. On the flip side, the weaknesses point to urgent needs for improvement in areas like regulatory enforcement, resource distribution, and infrastructure upgrades, which currently impede the framework’s effi-ciency and response capabilities. Strategically, the study recommends a comprehensive approach to boost Serbia’s disaster management effectiveness. Suggestions include strengthening international and regional partnerships, ramping up investment in technology and infrastructure, and expanding training and public awareness initiatives. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of proactive policy development aimed at resilience and thorough risk management. The study posits that with focused reforms, increased funding, and ongoing commitment to enhancement, Serbia could sub-stantially improve its resilience to disasters, thus better protecting its people and infrastructure from the growing unpredictability of global environmental challenges. This research not only adds to the ongoing conversation on disaster risk management but also acts as a springboard for further studies and policy-making in this crucial area. This study not only maps out the structure of Serbia’s Disaster (Risk) Management Framework but also enriches the academic conversation around disaster management. It presents a detailed framework suited for comparative analysis in various national contexts, helping to deepen the un-derstanding of both universal and region-specific challenges in disaster management. The method-ology used in this research strengthens the integrity of disaster management studies by integrating various data sources, which refine theoretical models for disaster resilience and response. Thus, this research lays a solid foundation for further theoretical exploration and offers insightful views on the dynamics of disaster management systems. On a practical level, this study’s outcomes are crucial for shaping policies and strategic planning in disaster management. By identifying key systemic weaknesses and areas needing strategic improvements, the research delivers precise recommenda-tions for policy reform. These recommendations include creating extensive training programs for emergency personnel and the public, optimizing resource distribution, and encouraging mul-ti-sectoral collaborations. These measures are vital for boosting disaster preparedness and response capabilities and contributing to comprehensive enhancements in national disaster management strategies. The practical insights provided are designed to assist policymakers, emergency man-agement experts, and stakeholders in developing more effective and efficient practices in disaster management, ultimately fostering a more resilient society.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). In-Depth Analysis of Disaster (Risk) Management System in Serbia: A Critical Examination of Systemic Strengths and Weaknesses. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.0762.v1
Empowering the Regional Network of Experts for Disaster Risk Management in the Western Balkans by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management
Abstract: The Western Balkans region is persistently vulnerable to natural hazards, inadequate infrastructure, and limited institutional capacities, necessitating a collaborative approach to disaster risk management. This paper presents a comprehensive project led by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management (NSD-URVs) in Belgrade, aiming to establish and strengthen a regional network of experts in disaster risk management. The project focuses on building expertise, facilitating knowledge exchange, promoting expert coordination, and enhancing cross-border collaboration. Key activities include developing a web platform, organising an international conference, and advocating for regional policies that integrate best practices and innovations in disaster risk management. The expected outcomes are the establishment of a cohesive network, enhanced expertise and coordination, and improved preparedness and responsiveness to disasters. By leveraging collective expertise and resources, this initiative aims to fortify the region’s resilience against potential disasters. Addressing the identified gaps and implementing the proposed policy recommendations can significantly enhance the region’s resilience to natural hazards. Future research should focus on the implementation and impact of these recommendations to ensure continuous improvement in disaster preparedness and response.
Conclusion: The establishment and strengthening of a regional network of experts for disaster risk management in the Western Balkans will be a significant step towards enhancing resilience and preparedness for dis-asters. This initiative, led by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management, Bel-grade, will aim to form a cohesive network of experts that will facilitate continuous knowledge ex-change, experience sharing, and strategic planning, thereby significantly improving the collective un-derstanding and capacity for disaster risk management. One of the key outcomes will be the creation of a dynamic platform enabling experts to exchange insights and strategies, cultivating a culture of active information sharing and collaborative learning within the network. Through targeted training and capacity-building initiatives, the knowledge and skills of the experts will be significantly en-hanced, leading to the formation of a group of highly qualified professionals ready to implement the latest practices in disaster risk management. Improved coordination mechanisms among experts, government agencies, and relevant stake-holders, along with strengthened cross-border collaboration, will contribute to more efficient disaster response through streamlined communication and cooperation. Additionally, the preparedness and responsiveness of the network to swiftly and effectively react to emerging disasters will be improved, reducing the impact of disasters on the region. Also, successful advocacy for policies that support the integration of best practices and innovations in disaster risk management will contribute to the devel-opment and adoption of policies at both regional and national levels, fostering a more resilient and proactive approach to disaster management. These results will have profound implications for the Western Balkans region. Firstly, they will enable better preparedness and response to disasters, thereby reducing socio-economic losses and in-creasing the safety of the population. Secondly, the established network of experts will serve as a foundation for further collaboration and development, ensuring sustainability and continuous pro-gress in disaster risk management. Finally, these efforts will set standards and examples that can be applied in other regions facing similar challenges. Overall, the initiatives and achievements outlined in this paper will emphasize the importance of regional cooperation, continuous knowledge exchange, and strong policies in combating disaster risks. Through joint efforts and commitment, the Western Balkans region can become a model of resilience and effective disaster management for other regions around the world. It foresees the successful establishment of a regional network of experts, which will enhance knowledge sharing, elevate expertise levels, and strengthen coordination frameworks. These devel-opments and successes are poised to demonstrate the efficacy and impact of joint efforts in boosting regional resilience and preparedness for managing disasters. Additionally, the recommendations pro-vided aim to further solidify these advancements and ensure a resilient and proactive approach to dis-aster management across the region.
• Establishment of the regional network of experts for disaster risk management in the Western Balkans: successful creation and establishment of a cohesive regional network comprising ex-perts in disaster risk management; formation of a collaborative platform for ongoing knowledge exchange, coordination, and joint initiatives among experts in the Western Balkans;
• Facilitated knowledge and experience exchange: established a dynamic platform for experts to exchange insights, experiences, and strategies, thereby enhancing the collective understanding of disaster risk management; cultivated a culture of active information sharing and collabora-tive learning within the network;
• Enhanced expertise in disaster risk management: strengthened the knowledge and skills of the regional network of experts through targeted training and capacity-building initiatives; devel-oped a pool of highly skilled professionals well-versed in the latest advancements and best practices in disaster risk management;
• Improved coordination mechanisms among experts: enhanced coordination mechanisms among experts, government agencies, and relevant stakeholders; fostered a more cohesive and efficient response to disasters by facilitating streamlined communication and collaboration;
• Strengthened cross-border collaboration: successfully strengthened collaboration and infor-mation-sharing mechanisms among experts from Western Balkan countries; facilitated a more coordinated regional response to disaster events through increased cooperation and knowledge exchange across borders;
• Enhanced capacity for quick response: improved the preparedness and responsiveness of the re-gional network to swiftly and effectively react to emerging disasters; established efficient pro-tocols and mechanisms for rapid response, reducing the impact of disasters on the region;
• Advocacy for regional policies: successfully advocated for policies supporting the integration of best practices and innovations in disaster risk management; contributed to the development and adoption of policies at both regional and national levels, fostering a more resilient and pro-active approach to disaster management.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M. (2024). Empowering the Regional Network of Experts for Disaster Risk Management in the Western Balkans by the Scientific-Professional Society for Disaster Risk Management. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202405.1043.v1
Legal and Organizational Framework for the Use of Search and Rescue Dogs in Disasters: A Comparative Analysis between Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia
Abstract: This study critically explores the legislative frameworks and national regulations of Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia concerning the engagement, training, and responsibilities of search and rescue dogs and their handlers. The goal is to offer a thorough understanding of how these dogs and their handlers are engaged, trained, and managed in each country. By carefully analyzing the legal foundations, the study aims to clarify the rights, duties, and responsibilities of all parties involved, ensuring that search and rescue dog deployments are conducted within a structured and lawful framework. Such an understanding is crucial for improving disaster management and ensuring a coordinated response to various emergencies. The findings reveal that although each country has strong legal provisions for deploying search and rescue dogs, there are significant differences in the detail and scope of these regulations. Slovenia is notable for its detailed guidelines, regular evaluations, and licensing processes, setting a high standard. Croatia benefits from strong institutional support and active international collaboration, which greatly enhances its disaster response capabilities. On the other hand, Serbia, despite having a solid foundational framework, could improve by better coordinating with non-governmental organizations and aligning more closely with international standards. Key areas for improvement include harmonizing standards, enhancing training programs, increasing public awareness, better resource allocation, and adopting new technologies. By addressing these issues, Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia can further strengthen their legal and institutional frameworks, ensuring their search and rescue teams are better prepared for disasters. This study emphasizes the need for continuous improvement through collaboration, standardization, and innovation to maximize the effectiveness of search and rescue operations involving dogs.
Conclusions: This comparative analysis of the normative and institutional frameworks for search and rescue (SAR) dogs in Serbia, Slovenia, and Croatia reveals both common strengths and distinct national approaches. Slovenia is distinguished by its comprehensive legal framework and stringent training standards, ensuring a high level of preparedness and operational efficiency. Croatia benefits from strong institutional support and active international collaboration, which enhances its disaster response capabilities. Serbia, while having a solid foundational framework, stands to gain significantly from increased cooperation with non-governmental organizations and the adoption of international standards. Key findings indicate that all three countries have well-defined regulations governing the use of search and rescue dogs, yet the specificity and comprehensiveness of these regulations vary. Slovenia leads in detailed normative guidelines, regular evaluations, and licensing processes, setting a benchmark for others to follow. Croatia’s robust institutional framework supports continuous training and active international engagement, while Serbia could enhance its system through better resource allocation and standardized procedures. Financial support remains crucial for maintaining effective rescue operations. Stable funding sources in Croatia and Slovenia contrast with Serbia’s need for improved financial strategies, including engaging the private sector and seeking international donations. Additionally, the adoption of new technologies, such as drones and advanced communication tools, is essential for modernizing rescue operations across all three nations. The importance of psychological support for rescuers, public awareness campaigns, and effective community integration are emphasized as critical components of a successful search and rescue framework. Legal protections for handlers and dogs, flexibility in deployment scenarios, and regular exchange of best practices are also vital for enhancing the overall capacity and readiness of rescue teams. While each country has made significant strides in utilizing search and rescue dogs, continuous improvement through collaboration, standardization, and innovation is essential. By adopting these recommendations, Serbia, Slovenia, and Croatia can further enhance their legal and institutional frameworks, ensuring their search and rescue teams are optimally prepared to respond to any disaster.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Miljković, N. (2024). Legal and Organizational Framework for the Use of Search and Rescue Dogs in Disasters: A Comparative Analysis between Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.0841.v1
Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Search and Rescue Dogs in Finding Survivors During Disasters: The Case of Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia
Abstract: Disasters, whether natural or human-induced, pose significant threats to human lives, property, and infrastructure. This study examines the effectiveness of search and rescue (SAR) dogs in locating survivors during disasters, with a focus on the experiences in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. The primary goals are to evaluate training protocols, operational challenges, success rates, and the overall impact of SAR dogs in disaster scenarios. The findings indicate that SAR dogs greatly enhance the efficiency of disaster response operations. Their superior sense of smell, agility, and ability to manoeuvre through complex terrains make them crucial for quickly locating survivors. However, the performance of SAR dogs is affected by various factors, including the quality of their training, environmental conditions, and the coordination between handlers and dogs. The research highlights several challenges encountered by SAR dogs, such as extreme weather conditions, hazardous terrains, fatigue, and psychological stress. Additionally, limited resources and inconsistent training standards can hinder their effectiveness. The study underscores the importance of standardized training protocols, increased resource allocation, and better coordination among SAR teams. By addressing these challenges, the efficiency of SAR dogs can be further optimized, resulting in more effective disaster responses and higher survival rates. SAR dogs play an essential role in disaster management in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Ongoing investment in their training and welfare, along with improved operational protocols, will ensure their crucial contribution to saving lives during disasters. This study contributes to a broader understanding of the effectiveness of SAR dogs and provides practical recommendations for enhancing disaster response strategies.
Conclusion: The assessment of search and rescue (SAR) dogs’ effectiveness in locating survivors during disasters in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia highlights the crucial role these expertly trained canines play in disaster response. The study reveals that SAR dogs are invaluable due to their exceptional sense of smell, agility, and ability to navigate difficult terrains, which significantly boost the efficiency and success rates of rescue missions. Key factors impacting the effectiveness of SAR dogs include the quality of their training, environmental conditions during operations, and the coordination between handlers and dogs. The research identifies several challenges that SAR dogs encounter, such as extreme weather, hazardous terrain, fatigue, psychological stress, and limited resources. Addressing these issues is vital for optimizing the performance and well-being of SAR dogs. The study underscores the necessity for standardized training protocols, sufficient investment in resources, and improved coordination among SAR teams. Ongoing training and support for both dogs and handlers are essential to maintaining high-performance levels during rescue missions. Additionally, the research points to the importance of international cooperation and the exchange of best practices to refine SAR dog deployment strategies. In summary, SAR dogs are an indispensable part of disaster response teams in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Their ability to swiftly and effectively locate survivors makes them a critical asset in saving lives during disasters. Continued investment in training, resources, and international collaboration will ensure that SAR dogs remain at the forefront of effective disaster management, thereby enhancing the resilience of communities and their capacity to respond to future disasters.
To further enhance the effectiveness of SAR dogs in disaster response, the study proposes several key recommendations:
a) It is essential to develop and implement standardized training protocols across all SAR teams. This ensures consistent, high-quality training for both SAR dogs and their handlers. Regular drills, exposure to various environments, and advanced training techniques tailored to specific disaster scenarios should be included.
b) More resources should be allocated for the training, care, and deployment of SAR dogs. This includes funding specialized training facilities, veterinary care, and the acquisition of necessary equipment.
c) Improving coordination and communication among SAR teams, both domestically and internationally, is crucial. Establishing clear communication channels and collaborative frameworks will facilitate better resource sharing and more efficient deployment of SAR dogs during disasters.
d) Providing psychological support and ensuring the welfare of SAR dogs and their handlers is vital. Addressing the mental and physical health of both dogs and handlers helps maintain high-performance levels and ensures long-term effectiveness.
e) Raising public awareness about the role and importance of SAR dogs in disaster response is important. Educational campaigns can help garner support and funding for SAR programs and foster a greater appreciation for these canine heroes.
f) Ongoing research and development in SAR dog training and deployment should be encouraged. Innovations in training methods, scent detection technologies, and health monitoring can further enhance the capabilities of SAR dogs.
g) Strengthening international collaboration and sharing best practices among countries is essential. Participation in international training exercises, conferences, and knowledge exchange programs will contribute to the continuous improvement of SAR dog deployment strategies.
SAR dogs are a crucial part of disaster response teams in Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Their remarkable ability to swiftly and efficiently locate survivors makes them indispensable for saving lives during emergencies. Ensuring continued investment in their training, resources, and fostering international collaboration will keep SAR dogs at the cutting edge of effective disaster management. This, in turn, will enhance the resilience of communities and their preparedness for future disasters. Implementing the recommendations from this study will not only boost the effectiveness of SAR dogs but also contribute significantly to the overall improvement of disaster response strategies in the region.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., & Miljković, N. (2024). Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Search and Rescue Dogs in Finding Survivors During Disasters: The Case of Serbia, Croatia, and Slovenia. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202407.0584.v1
Disaster risk communication: Attitudes of Serbian citizens
Abstract: The objective of this research was to examine the citizens’ attitudes to various factors influencing the implementation of effective disaster risk communication in the Republic of Serbia. In addition, the research aims to scientifically describe the predictors of successful disaster risk communication. Using an online survey questionnaire, based on the snowball principle, 243 respondents were surveyed during July 2021. The results of the multiple linear regression analysis used to assess the explanatory power of six selected variables (gender, age, education, marital status, employment, and income level) on the perception of disaster risk communication show that the most important predictors of risk awareness are income level and gender. The obtained results have multiple scientific and practical importance for the improvement of integrated disaster risk communication through the process of improved understanding of the demographic and socio-economic perspective of communication. Predmet istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje stavova građana o različitim činiocima uticaja na sprovođenje efikasne komunikacije rizika od katastrofa u Republici Srbiji. Pored toga, cilј istraživanja predstavlјa naučna deskripcija prediktora uspešne komunikacije rizika od katastrofa. Korišćenjem onlajn anketnog upitnika, a po principu snežne grudve, sprovedeno je anketiranje 243 ispitanika tokom jula 2021. godine. Rezultati višestruke linearne regresione analize korišćene da se proceni eksplikativna moć šest izabranih varijabli (pol, godine, obrazovanje, bračni status, zaposlenost i visina prihoda) na percepciju komunikacije rizika od katastrofa pokazuju da je najznačajniji prediktor informisanosti o rizicima nivo prihoda i pol ispitanika. Dobijeni rezultati su od višestrukog naučnog i praktičnog značaja za unapređenje integrisane komunikacije rizika od katastrofa kroz proces pobolјšanog razumevanja demografske i socio-ekonomske perspektive komunikacije.
Conclusions: Traditional sources of information such as radio, television, and print have long been used for the purpose of warning the public about pending dangers and proposing protection measures to minimize consequences. However, these sources had several deficiencies: inability to directly transmit information from affected regions, interruption of communication between individuals and relevant services due to physical damage to critical infrastructure, inconsistency in reporting, sensationalization of stories by the media, etc. The use of new technologies in reporting and warning has become crucial in the field of disaster risk management. To increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the communication process, it is necessary to establish a service or unit responsible for monitoring the entire communication process (receipt, analysis, sending), from the first announcements to the end of the disaster. This unit or service would aim to provide timely, true, and objective information about events, as well as coordinate communication among members of the affected community and relevant services. It would be responsible for early warning, alerting and informing, issuing evacuation orders, and proposing protection measures via various information channels. During disasters, it would receive direct information from the scene and manage protection and rescue units for a faster and more efficient response. Moreover, this service would also play a role in stopping the distribution of false information and undermining of authorities. The conducted research raises new research questions that need to be examined and studied in detail, including various factors affecting the process of disaster risk communication and the implementation of different strategies and innovative solutions in this field. Given the increasing requests for attention to the social context, perception, attitudes, and beliefs of the population that affect their interpretation, receipt, and response to warning messages, the implications of this research are extremely important for decision-makers in the Republic of Serbia.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Radovanović, M., Milašinović, S. (2021). Disaster risk communication: Attitudes of Serbian citizens. Sociological review, 55 (4), 1610-1647.
State of Public Health at the Local Level in Serbia: Longitudinal Research (Stanje javnog zdravlja na lokalnom nivou u Srbiji: longitudinalno istraživanje)
Abstract: The objective of this quantitative study was to examine the impact of selected factors on the level and state of public health in local self-government units in 2021, with the consideration of data from 2020 and 2019. This survey included 77 out of 145 local self-government units in the Republic of Serbia and examined six dimensions defined by the Law on Public Health: social care for the public health of the city/municipality in regard to the physical, mental, and social health of the population; health promotion and disease prevention; the environment and health; working environments and population health; the organization and functioning of the health system; and actions in emergency situations. The results of the Pearson correlation showed that there were statistically significant correlations between the effectiveness of the realized program budget and microbiologically defective drinking water samples from the so-called village water supply systems, defective samples of drinking water from public taps, unsatisfactory analyses of wastewater samples, the total number of air samples on an annual level for PM25s, and the number of mandated fines issued. The results of the logistic regression model showed that the local self-government units that received assistance from the Permanent Conference of Cities and Municipalities were 5.6 times more likely to perform analyses of their health status. Furthermore, we determined that the units of local self-governments that appointed a coordinator of the health council identified vulnerable groups in the analysis of the state of health four and a half times more often. In contrast, the units of local self-governments that prepared health status analyses could be used to identify vulnerable groups to a six times greater extent within the framework of the health status analysis. The results showed that in improving the state of public health at the local level, it is necessary to provide systematic institutional support to cities and municipalities in exercising their responsibilities. Based on these results, recommendations were made for the further development of support, i.e., the planning of further activities aimed at strengthening the capacity of the health councils and local self-government units in this area.
Conclusion: The results of the study can be considered relevant for the regular monitoring and evaluation of indicators in the field of public health and for health improvement at the local level, as well as for assessing the capacities of cities and municipalities to implement their given responsibilities. The survey comprehensively assessed self-government units’ competencies in all areas of public health. The results obtained from the analysis of the work of health councils, the selected indicators for each area of public health, and the effects of the support from the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities and the representatives of public health institutes provided clear guidelines for establishing effective monitoring systems, planning the activities of the involved actors (local self-government units, the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities, and public health institutes), and evaluating their effects. The results confirmed the effectiveness of implementing health councils in the areas of promotion and prevention, as well as in the organization and functioning of the healthcare system. In future work, local self-government units should be supported in their choices of effective programs and priorities. Although a large percentage of local governments reported having an institutionally provided advisor for the protection of patients’ rights, a small number of patient complaints indicated that it is necessary to empower citizens to exercise their rights guaranteed by law. Areas of public health identified as needing special support included the environment, workplace environments, and emergency situations. The environment is the most complex area and probably the most important because it includes the entire population in each local self-government area. First of all, it is necessary to conduct health risk assessments in each municipality and adopt special environmental improvement programs based on the unit’s priorities. In general, the most important issue identified was water—the provision of proper drinking water in cities and small village waterworks, the availability of proper water in public facilities, as well as providing solutions regarding wastewater for both communal and industrial facilities. The second most important issue was air pollution measurements, which must be conducted continuously and for specific pollutants, and which were provided in less than a third of the local self-government units. It is necessary to help local self-governments develop plans for the care of the population in crisis and emergency situations because the occurrence of unwanted events (such as floods, mass migrations, chemical spills, and pandemics) is becoming more frequent. The results of this study showed that the participation of public health representatives in the councils resulted in the councils having better access to analyses of health status and indicators of various areas of public health. Establishing good communication between partners at the local level contributes to the improved effectiveness of the activities undertaken.
Reference – Cvetković, V.M.; Tanasić, J.; Živković-Šulović, M.; Ćurić, N.; Milojević, S. State of Public Health at the Local Level in Serbia: Longitudinal Research. Preprints 2023, 2023010166 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202301.0166.v1).0430.v1).
Reducing the Risk of Disasters Caused by Epidemics
Abstract: Epidemics are the most common natural phenomena that have occurred throughout the entire history of human society. Depending on the type of disease and the development of the collective immunity that society had acquired by then, the consequences of epidemics were usually very severe. Precisely because of this, the aim of the paper is a scientific description of the way in which the prescribed preventive measures should be applied from the epidemiological, security, economic, legal and other aspects, so that the society, through the mechanisms of the state, can defend and rehabilitate the consequences of an epidemic of an infectious disease. Eliminating the epidemic’s impacts is a very difficult issue. In particular, there is an infectious illness epidemic that is spreading uncontrolled throughout society on the one hand. In order to introduce a quarantine that restricts the epidemic’s progress and, if the quarantine lasts long enough, to end the epidemic, contact between members of the social group must be broken. On the other side, the cessation of communication between members of a social group also signifies the cessation of all facets of life in that society, including economic ties, education, growth of culture, scientific research, etc.
Conclusion: Because they frequently resulted in significant changes in states and social communities, epidemics and pandemics of different diseases are a part of human history and can be said to have had a significant impact on how humanity has developed. The same is true of the region that makes up the Republic of Serbia’s present-day borders. Simply said, an epidemic is when a disease spreads widely and is considered to be widespread, whether it affects humans, animals, or both. A pandemic is a phenomenon that occurs when a disease spreads across a larger region, across numerous nations, or over the majority of the world. In theory, epidemics are usually divided into droplet and airborne epidemics, contact, water elemental, and vector epidemics, and they are transmitted in a large number of ways. It may spread from animals to people by direct contact, inhaling droplets, eating contaminated animal flesh, soil, and even physical contact between sick animals and people. Additionally, viruses, or diseases, can spread through water or through drinking water that has the virus in it. Additionally, some illnesses, like HIV, are sexually transmitted. According to the notion, viruses, germs, bigger human groupings, and environmental factors are how epidemics spread most frequently. There are certain procedures that are undertaken to suppress them when a specific infection develops in a certain area to the point where an epidemic or pandemic must be declared in almost all countries in the world, as well as at the international level in accordance with various international agreements. In summary, it can be said that the population’s top priority should be to heed the advice of the relevant authorities regarding the control and avoidance of the epidemic, which typically includes maintaining a high standard of personal hygiene, keeping a safe distance, donning protective masks, etc. Major epidemics call for the closure of specific areas, which entails quarantining the ill to stop the disease from spreading to other areas and preventing contact between the sick and others. State borders are blocked, and interstate migration is prohibited during extremely severe epidemics, or pandemics, to stop the virus from spreading from one state to another. More specifically, the continuing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the coronavirus, is the most recent and ongoing outbreak. The coronavirus originally surfaced in China’s Hubei region in the city of Wuhan. It then spread quickly around the world, reaching a point where the WHO proclaimed a worldwide pandemic to be underway. In order to combat this outbreak, China enacted rigorous quarantine measures for its suppression and prevention, closing the whole province and placing Wuhan under a harsh curfew. The Coronavirus was battled in a similar manner by all other nations. In all nations, preventative methods include using protective masks and gloves, improving personal cleanliness, keeping a physical distance, and avoiding crowds of people. However, there are instances where no special measures were taken, such as in Sweden. The idea is that the population, through contact with the virus, develops collective immunity over time. The suppression and prevention of the coronavirus were carried out in the Republic of Serbia in a similar or same manner as other countries, although a curfew, which forbade everyone from moving during the overnight hours, was in effect for roughly a month. Additionally, because people over 65 are among the most susceptible to this virus, all movement was prohibited for them. The restrictive measures were loosened as the number of infected persons in Europe and across the world decreased. This led to an upsurge in activity among the populace and a number of larger gatherings, mostly to celebrate birthdays, marriages, and other special occasions. The aforementioned led to a renewed increase in illness and death from the coronavirus. Many world and European countries are now reintroducing measures to suppress and prevent this virus. Similar occurrences occurred in the Republic of Serbia when big sporting events and parliamentary elections were both organized after the prohibition on public meetings was lifted. This necessitates a massive gathering of people, and as a result, the number of cases and fatalities from the coronavirus is rising once more in our nation. The coronavirus has several effects that will last for a very long period. The effects of the Coronavirus, which has fully or partially interrupted a significant number of commercial operations, are already being felt by the European and global economies. Many people lost their jobs, and many small and medium-sized businesses also suffered job losses, while the largest corporations in the world were not even operating at full capacity. Countries are attempting to revive their economies using a variety of economic measures while losses are substantial. Similar circumstances occurred in the Republic of Serbia, where many small enterprises were compelled to close under the state of emergency, having a severe detrimental impact on both their owners and staff. The state is implementing a wide range of policies with the intention of reviving its economy, just like in other nations and in the Republic of Serbia. Along with the economic effects, it is frequently mentioned that the coronavirus pandemic was used in some nations, including the Republic of Serbia, to suppress certain civil liberties and repress oppositional media outlets under the guise of faking panic. Additionally, it is thought that this virus is employed to strengthen the government’s hold over all facets of people’s lives and employment. The coronavirus pandemic is now underway, and there are no indications that it will end soon. It is essential to raise awareness of its effects and ensure that information provided about it is accurate and truthful, free of any political overtones. With this epidemic, the world has irrevocably altered, and it is crucial to stop inequity and cruelty from stemming from these changes. The only way to stop it is for everyone to take action on a global scale.
Reference – Cvetković, V.M.; Vujanović, S.; Ivanov, A. Reducing the Risk of Disasters Caused by Epidemics. Preprints.org 2023, 2023050564. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202305.0564.v1.430.v1).
The Role of Social Media in the Process of Informing the Public About Disaster Risks (Uloga društvenih medija u procesu informisanja javnosti o rizicima od katastrofa)
Abstract: Social media informs the public about the most important events and conveys important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and collect data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. The subject of the research is examining the influence of demographic factors on the effectiveness of social media in informing the public about the risks of disasters. Using an online survey questionnaire and according to the snowball principle, a survey of 247 respondents was conducted in 2022. The research results show no statistically significant relationship between the respondents’ education level and the assessment of the effectiveness of social media reporting on disasters. Using social media can improve communication between stakeholders in disaster management and facilitate coordination of efforts, fostering communication and allocation of resources. To effectively use social media in disaster management, decision-makers in the disaster management system must be aware of new technologies, their disadvantages and advantages, and ways to collect and analyze data from social networks.
Conclusion: Media in modern society is characterized by a high level of connectivity and the progressive development of information and communication technologies. Social media inform the public about the most important events and convey important information. Before, during, and after disasters, social media are used to disseminate information about disasters and gather data relevant to the implementation of preparedness, response, and recovery activities and measures. Social networks are effective in disseminating information and warnings, as well as in educating the public. At the same time, they are a source of information for decision-makers, based on which they can monitor the course of disasters, their consequences, public opinion, and the needs of citizens. However, to use social networks in the best possible way, it is necessary to have knowledge, advanced technologies, and resources. However, information about disasters that is sensationalist can also have negative effects. Too often, news broadcasts and how they are conveyed can increase fear among citizens and cause anxiety, stress, and depression. Social media, characterized by interactivity and the transmission of content created by the users of social networks themselves, are a rich source of inaccurate information. This information does not have to be objective or accurate. However, it is generally available to the public faster than verified and reliable information transmitted through other communication channels. The spread of misinformation and other people’s opinions increases uncertainty and fear among citizens. Social networks are often used as a source of information today. Citizens often do not check the sources of information and tend to form opinions based on short information, headlines, images, and video content. This can lead to overexposure to unverified and subjective news, citizen distrust, and often resistance to government disaster mitigation measures. Also, misinformation and half-information often present on the Internet can directly threaten human health and create distrust of citizens in governments and experts. Therefore, timely and accurate information, as well as appropriate tools that enable this, is a basic prerequisite for successful disaster management. The conducted research generates new research questions in which we should further investigate and study various demographic factors that influence the process of informing about the risks of disasters through social media and that influence the design and implementation of appropriate strategies and innovative solutions in this area. Given that the study and understanding of the social context, that is, the perception, beliefs, and attitudes of citizens, which shape how they interpret and respond to information, is of key importance for decision-makers, the research implications have practical significance. The limitations of the conducted research are, on the other hand, the coverage of a smaller territorial area and population of the Republic of Serbia.
Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M., Nikolic, A., & Ivanov, A. (2023). The role of social media in the process of informing the public about disaster risks. Journal of Liberty and International Affairs, 9(2), 104-119. https://doi.org/10.47305/JLIA2392121c
Comparative analysis of DRM systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China
The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered starting from the international level and guidelines were given at international conferences to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurs, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers-whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied.
Conclusion: Looking at the analyzed countries, it can be concluded that it is difficult to establish whether the harmful consequences of disasters have a more serious impact on fully developed or less developed and poorer societies. When a disaster occurs in developed societies that are modernized, have high living standards, developed technologies, specific critical infrastructure, and the like, those societies suffer great losses at the time of the disaster if, for example, critical infrastructure is affected and, for example, the use of technology or the functioning of the economy is prevented. Such societies have financial and other opportunities for quick recovery. Poor societies have less preparedness, they do not lose many resources in a disaster, but they remain without the necessities of life and it takes a lot of time for reconstruction and recovery. Also, analyzing the response to disasters in the mentioned countries, it can be said that in each of them, there is delegation and decentralization, i.e., that the first response lies in the hands of the lowest level of government and the resources available to that level. The response goes to a higher level depending on whether the rescue and protection requirements exceed the lower levels or not. As far as recovery is concerned, it can be said from experience that it is necessary to plan for the occurrence of disasters with the budget. At the same time, it is necessary to provide financial resources not only for response to disasters, resources, equipment and everything needed for response to disasters but also for recovery and reconstruction of what was destroyed. If not adequately planned, there may be sudden and additional costs in situations where the damage is large and the previously planned budget is insufficient. All this suggests that adequate assessment and planning are necessary so that disasters threaten the community and its assets as little as possible. What is noticeably more prevalent in the field of disaster recovery is insurance. Although this type of assistance is still in development, since not all regions of a country are equally developed and able to afford insurance, it represents an effective element when it comes to the recovery of individuals, families, businesses, and the like.
Comparing Germany, the USA, Russia, and China, it can be concluded that each country has established and regulated a normative legal basis on which the DRM system is further built. In Russia, there is a simple division of disasters into those related to conflicts between states and those originating from sources such as nature and the human factor, and based on such a simple division, laws have been passed that focus on the terms ‘defense’, ‘resources’, and the like and where there is no large number of laws and by-laws that regulate the area of disaster risk and disaster response. On the other hand, there is the example of China, where a large number of laws and other regulations governing this area have been passed, which are often changed and updated. A problem arises from such a broad regulation, which is reflected in the insufficiently defined division of responsibilities. If we take into account the number of the population of China, but also the fact that it is subject to serious disasters (earthquakes, typhoons, floods, droughts, etc.) and that the consequences are serious, excessive regulation and various insufficiently clear responsibilities can pose a problem in practical operation – when a disaster happens. Within the German normative legal framework, one can see an example of preventive action – a focus on adapting to climate change, which can be considered the cause of certain disasters, but also an example of action by the identified flood risk. In German legislation, great importance is given to the infrastructure and its protection, as well as the financial aspect in cases of disasters. Germany, as a developed country, thinks beyond its borders and response range and establishes a system that will enable mutual assistance and the participation of other countries in joint activities. As part of such an initiative, issues related to business, risk transfer, financial insurance, and the like are also considered. What is characteristic of the USA is that there is noticeable progress in the regulation of disaster response – from completely neglecting preventive action and emphasizing only armed threats to action based on experience and lessons learned. An example is the acts that were adopted after disasters that had serious consequences for the USA. With these acts, changes were made in the way of responding and especially in the way of assisting from the highest to the local level. Risk mitigation in each studied country implies good planning of the risk itself, its possible outcomes, but also all the activities that follow when a disaster occurs. The focus is on mitigating the consequences that arise first of all for the population and then for the economy. When it comes to the population, the paper provides interesting examples of how countries prepare the population for response through various pieces of training and exercises – the example of the USA and Germany, which hold training for a response, first aid, evacuation, and the like, and the example of Russia, which organized competitions between cities in the preparedness area, etc. In addition, the use of technology to increase preparedness for response is noticeable in each country. Smart devices, mobile applications, weather alarms, and the like have been used in different ways to educate the population, gather information, and conduct surveillance. When considering responding to disasters, the principle of subsidiarity is represented in the countries in question. In each state, it ranges from the lowest local, provincial, and other lower levels. When the demands placed by the disaster on the local level are too great, then resources from a higher level are used. With Germany, the USA, Russia, and China, one can observe the respect of one of the priorities of the Hyogo framework for action – and that is the effort to make disaster risk reduction a priority at the national and local level. Each state has an established body (council, ministry, agency, office) at the highest level, whose responsibility is mainly the coordination of activities during disaster response. In the USA, such a body deals with research, education, training, response, assistance, and other activities, while in Russia, for example, the Ministry in the event of disasters supervises all civil services. For recovery after a disaster, it is crucial to adequately assess the risk and determine as closely as possible the potential damage it can bring. The framework for recovery in the USA is based on such estimates. Post-disaster planning is carried out within it. Financial resources are very important in recovery. Reserves and funds must be well planned, as was the case that was shown in the paper on the example of Germany. On the contrary, the example of Russia was given, which had to withdraw the reserves planned for the following year in the current one, since the damage caused in the event of a disaster exceeded all planned financial resources. Noticeable in every country is the existence of disaster insurance. In some countries, it is regulated and recognized as a solution, as is the case in the USA and Germany, while for China it is considered that such a solution would give results, but it has not yet been implemented. By comparing Germany, the USA, China, and Russia, conclusions can be drawn about the successful functioning of the system, which is of key importance for the protection of the values of each state. For a system, such as a system that is activated before, during, and after disasters, to function, it must be developed on an adequate basis that is adapted to the actual situation and practical operation. Its elements must be connected, and the flow and exchange of information must be organized and functional. In addition, a clear division of responsibility and competence is important when a quick and timely response is required, and it must first of all be normatively regulated. Also, such a system cannot be uniform and unchanging. As the assessed risks on which it is established change, so must it. The system must be comprehensive, i.e., it must take into account both the entire state embodied in the government representatives and their institutions and it must also take into account the individual and his possible contribution to responding in emergencies. Established systems cannot be ideal, losses must occur, but it is important that they are developed in such a way that they can preserve the vital interests of states – human lives and that they can enable a quick recovery for the entire society based on good planning of all relevant resources.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Andrić, K., Ivanov, A. (2023). Comparative analysis of DRM systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Security Dialogues /Безбедносни дијалози, 14 (2), 65-88
Religion Influence on Disaster Risk Reduction: A Case Study of Serbia
Human perception of nature and God have always been inextricably linked. To understand nature and its inherent processes, including various natural hazards, the reasons for their origin were often attributed to God’s will, suffering for sin and the similar. Fear of material and human losses prompted a man to pray and offer sacrifices/gifts and other rituals to appease the “wrath of the gods”. The progress of civilization and technology has not alleviated the destruction and trauma that natural disasters inflict on all aspects of social life. A major obstacle to this is the exponential population growth in vulnerable areas. The frequency of natural disasters and the fa-talistic attitudes that limit the effective fight against them have motivated religious communities and individuals to cooperate with international and international organizations and institutions to reduce the risk of local disasters. Believers thus receive the necessary psychological and financial assistance and support from religious communities during all phases of disaster management. Therefore, the subject of this paper is a comprehensive examination relationship between the degree of religiosity of the population and how this connection impacts the policy of reducing disaster risk. The aim of the research is to scientifically describe the nature of the relationship between the degree of religiosity of citizens and different segments of disaster risk reduction.
Conclusion: The discourse on the constructive as well as the harmful influence of religious beliefs is equally represented in the literature. Despite differing views on the nature of that influence, all agree that religious beliefs govern interpretations of natural hazards in many cultures and societies. During and after natural disasters, people need psychological support and comfort provided by religious institutions. Religious attributes can encourage a positive psychological response and, thus, improve the resilience of an entire society to natural disasters. When facing a disaster, people can seek spiritual support from God, and at the same time rely on resources and support in the social community to which they belong and participate in various group therapies for healing and alleviating the psychological consequences. Therefore, religious institutions contribute especially in the recovery phase, by providing appropriate material and psychological support to the population in the affected areas. The content of the message that religious authorities send to the public in such conditions can be of critical importance, and disaster risk communication must integrate contemporary knowledge about the relationship between religion and risk reduction. Fatalistic beliefs are a special challenge for solving and reducing which it is necessary to engage and unite the efforts of the government, educational institutions, media, and religious leaders. This requires effective cooperation, communication, and coordination at all levels. Although the potential of religious institutions in various stages of disaster management is evident, their role is still largely overshadowed in the literature and in practice. In addition to the capacity and state of the competent services, the prevention and mitigation of the consequences of disasters largely depend on the perception of the community. Human consciousness, therefore, emerges as a valuable resource in management efforts, particularly in the process of planning and designing programs, strategies, and response plans. It is shaped both by individual factors, such as age, gender, education, disaster experience, marital status, risk perception, and income, and by social factors, such as religious identity. Along with the rejection of ideological understandings about the nature of disasters as the work of God comes a change in the perception of control and responsibility. The then helplessness in the face of an insurmountable fate is replaced by the awareness of the possibility of controlling the consequences, that is, mitigating and minimizing the damage when a natural disaster occurs. In this way, a necessary precondition was created to improve the preparedness of the population, and then the response and recovery from the disaster. This study opens up new research questions, including examining the various religious factors and dimensions that influence risk perception, preparedness, response, and recovery after a natural disaster. The implications of the research are critical for decision-makers in the Republic of Serbia, who are facing increasing demands to respect people’s attitudes and beliefs that influence their behavior in disaster conditions. In combination with other mechanisms, they can be used to create appropriate strategies at the national level and programs adapted to different categories of the population. In future research, it would be important to investigate the coping strategies in response to disasters and traumatic events used by non-religious individuals versus those used by religious ones. The limitations of the research are reflected in the fact that a larger territorial area and a larger number of inhabitants of the Republic of Serbia were not covered.
Reference – Cvetković, V. M., Romanić, S., & Beriša, H. (2023). Religion Influence on Disaster Risk Reduction: A Case Study of Serbia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 5(1), 66-81. https://doi.org/10.18485/ijdrm.2023.5.1.6
Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China (Komparativna analiza sistema upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u Nemačkoj, SAD-a, Rusiji i Kini
Abstract: The uniqueness of each system stems from the fact that the risks of disasters are specific and that their presence and manifestation are not universal and the same for every country. Just as no country is the same in all other segments, their disaster risk management systems are unequal. The paper describes the systems in four different countries, through observation and comparison of four areas of activity that are implemented in dealing with disasters. First of all, in the paper, the legal basis and institutional frameworks on which these systems rest in each of the countries were considered – starting from the international level and guidelines given at international conferences, to all by-laws and local disaster activity plans. It was considered how each of the states implements risk mitigation activities and how it increases preparedness for them. When the system recognizes risks, their probability and the frequency of their occurrence, activities are planned to prepare the country and every individual in it for a potentially unwanted event. Differences in the ways of mitigating risks and preparing all elements of the system and protected values for disasters are presented. The third element of action in the event of disasters concerns the response. In this segment, questions are raised regarding institutional solutions in the system, division of responsibilities, the priority of response and mobilization of resources at all levels. The last phase, the one that occurs after the disaster, and that is the recovery from it, depends on the reaction. In the paper, it was discussed how in the end, when a disaster occurs and when damage to the population, environment, material and other goods occurred, how each of the states implements reconstruction, i.e. how it recovers – whether that recovery was previously well planned or whether ad hoc solutions are applied.
Reference – Cvetković, V.M., & Andrić, K. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Disaster Risk Management Systems in Germany, USA, Russia and China. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202302.0267.v1
The predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system
This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system. We tested the central hypothesis of which gender is predicting variable in citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system. The research was conducted with the use of a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online from 427 people in June 2021. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent to which total scores of the main dependent variables (introducing the death penalty; trust in the criminal justice system; advantages of introduction; disadvantages of introduction scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, marital status, education, income, and age. The findings revealed that gender and educational level were the most effective predictors of the research variables under question. The majority of respondents support the introduction of death penalty and the most important predictor of disadvantages of introducing death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system is age. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing death penalty in the criminal justice system, policies, strategies, and regulations must take into account these very important findings. The presented model can be used for a more detailed understanding of people’s attitudes regarding the support and opposition to the introduction of the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system.
Conslusion: Starting from the mentioned central hypothesis, the research confirmed that gender is one of the most important predictors of our model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the criminal justice system of the Republic of Serbia. In addition, the researchers determined the unequivocal influence of education and marital status on certain aspects of citizens’ attitudes about the introduction of such a punishment. Although the death penalty has not been applied in our country since 2002, the results have shown that the majority of citizens are in favor of its reintroduction, and they specified the impossibility of re-committing the crime as the main reason for that stand. Others who were not in favor of the introduction specified a possible wrongful conviction as the main argument against. Also, insufficient trust in the efficiency of the competent bodies that would be in charge of its implementation was noticed. Having in mind the importance of the conducted research, the competent state bodies should take into account the unequivocal attitudes of the citizens for the prescribed sanction to correspond to the social reality and public opinion. Certainly, even if there is a desire to introduce such a punishment, the obtained results could be used in some part to create an awareness-raising campaign which can be implemented to accept or reject the introduction of such a punishment. At the same time, it is especially important to recognize the differences in attitudes at different levels of education, age, marital status, and income. The success of the implementation of such penalties will largely depend on broader public support and a clear determination of what is achieved through its introduction. The presented model can be used for a more detailed understanding of people’s attitudes regarding the support and opposition to the introduction of the death penalty in the criminal justice system of the Republic of Serbia. That is why it is necessary to proceed with continuous research for the legal system to more efficiently and better fulfill its purpose of existence in the processes of functioning of social communities. Also, the present model may be used for a better understanding of current penalties. This assumption is especially important when it comes to lifelong imprisonment, which was recently introduced (2019) in the Serbian legal system. This penalty at the time of its introduction, according to parliamentary debate, was introduced as a kind of replacement for the death penalty in cases of sexual child abuse. Taking into consideration that the death penalty is not possible in countries that are members of the Council of Europe, as Serbia is, the members of Parliament opted for lifelong imprisonment in such cases.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Bugarski, T., Martinović, J. (2022). The predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Serbian criminal justice system, Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 27 (2), 7–43.
Relationship between demographic and environmental factors and knowledge of secondary school students on natural disasters
The subject of quantitative research is to examine the connection between demographic (gender, age) and environmental factors (family, school and media) and knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. Bearing in mind the orientation of the research design on the determination of character and strength of relationships of demographic and environmental factors with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters, research has an explicative goal. The authors use the method of interviewing high school students to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. The study included 3,063 students of secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Results suggest the existence of links between gender, success achieved in school education of parents and the knowledge of students about natural disasters. The results also indicate that the education of students at school and within the family does not affect their knowledge, but affects their perception of natural disasters. Bearing in mind the geographical space of Serbia, the study is based only on the Belgrade region, so the findings can be generalized only to the population of students in this area. Research findings indicate potential ways to influence students to raise their level of knowledge about natural disasters to a higher level. Given the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the study results can be used for policies of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture.
Conclusion: In examining the connection between certain demographic and environmental factors and knowledge of students on natural disasters, we obtained the following results: there is a correlation between the gender of students and their knowledge of natural disasters. Results showed that female students are better informed about natural disasters. On the other hand, we found that gender has no influence on the perception and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. Therefore, special attention to raising awareness should be directed towards male students; results showed no relationship between the age of students and their knowledge, perceptions, and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. Education about natural disasters should include students of all ages, without special attention to particular categories of age. Results indicate that the education of parents is related to knowledge, perception, and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. Especially noteworthy is the equal correlation of education of father and mother with the above dependent variables. It is significant to conduct additional research to more clearly examine the association of the education level of parents and students’ knowledge of natural disasters. Bearing in mind the importance of education about natural disasters at school and within the family, we wanted to examine what kind of education is more effective and produces better results. Regardless of our desire and the expected differences, we get similar results, indicating that education in school and family only affects the perception of natural disasters. The question remains, whether the results are consequences of the lack of participation of schools and families in the development of a security culture among young people. Furthermore, the results indicate that achieved success in school is associated with knowledge and familiarity with safety procedures for responding to natural disasters. The excellent students are more informed and know better the procedures for reacting in such situations. Whether it is a result of their attitude towards personal development and desire to know better the world around them, or it is something completely different, it remains to researchers to investigate. Starting from the fact that education in school and family about natural disasters only affects the perception, we wanted to examine whether the media influences the knowledge of natural disasters. The results showed that television and the Internet influence students’ knowledge of natural disasters. Therefore, this argument should be used in a better conception of the role of television and the Internet to disseminate knowledge about natural disasters.
From 1975 until 1993, in our educational system, there was the subject Defense and Protection within which students, among other things, acquired this kind of knowledge. Today, there is again an initiative to introduce the subject with similar topics. However, it is necessary to do a detailed analysis of the curricula for primary and secondary school and determine to what extent these educational activities are incorporated into the curriculum. On that basis, it is necessary to conclude whether it is only necessary to revise existing curricula in order to amend the contents of natural disasters or if it is needed to introduce a new subject. Surely, it obliges us to continue to conduct research on this topic and find strategies to affect the students in order to raise the level of their preparedness to respond to natural disasters. If we talk about the functionality of knowledge and knowledge that will be of benefit to students, then the curriculum must include contents related to emergency response, as well as knowledge related to familiarity with first aid, health care, and safety in the household. These are the topics that will be the focus of our future research.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Stanišić, J. (2015). Relationship between demographic and environmental factors with knowledge of secondary school students on natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, 65(3), 323-340.
Endangering the security of local communities in emergency situations caused by floods (Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama)
Starting from the increasingly frequent natural and anthropogenic emergencies in Serbia, the goal of scientific research is scientific description and explication of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on citizens’ perception of the level of endangering the safety of local communities in flood emergencies. About 248 adult citizens in the area of the city of Belgrade were surveyed by the method of random sampling, according to the snowball principle. The results of the research show that there is no statistically significant correlation between gender, the level of education of the respondents and the perception of different dimensions of security threats. In contrast, the existence of a statistically significant correlation between the perception of endangering the safety of local communities and the age of the respondents was established. The conducted research contributes to the improvement of the theoretical and empirical fund of scientific knowledge in the field of emergency management. The implications of the research are multiple and they enable decision-makers to design, develop and implement strategies and campaigns aimed at improving the safety of local communities from the consequences of natural emergencies. Polazeći od sve učestalijih prirodnih i antropogenih vanrednih situacija na području Srbije, cilj naučnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna deskripcija i eksplikacija uticaja demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na percepciju građana o nivou ugrožavanja bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama. Metodom slučajnog uzorkovanja, po principu snežne grudve, anketirano je 248 punoletnih građana na području grada Beograda. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost između pola, nivoa obrazovanja ispitanika i percepcije o različitim dimenzijama ugrožavanja bezbednosti. Nasuprot tome, utvrđeno je postojanje statistički značajne povezanosti percepcije ugrožavanja bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica sa starošću ispitanika. Sprovedeno istraživanje doprinosi unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda naučnog saznanja u oblasti upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama. Implikacije istraživanja su višestruke i one omogućavaju donosiocima odluka da osmisle, razviju i implementiraju strategije i kampanje usmerene na unapređenje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica od posledica prirodnih vanrednih situacija.
Conslusion: Today, more than ever in the past, the complex consequences of climate change are manifested at the local level. Climate change is one of the main causes of disasters, including earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, hurricanes, heavy rainfall, winter blizzards, landslides, etc. Due to a lack of information, nonlinear conditions, and time delays, responding to such emergencies requires quick and flexible decision-making in complex conditions. Various dynamic factors affect the duration of response activities. To protect the global community from future floods, it is necessary to seriously address the issues related to protection, response, and recovery after disasters. In solving such a complex problem, all actors of the state and the international community should be involved. The previous approach was based on the engagement of state authorities in undertaking preventive actions, responses, and remediation; however, there has been a change in understanding the significance of the role of all people affected by floods. The significance of individuals and their activities directly impacts the resilience of the entire community. Enhancing capacity requires relying on knowledge, skills, and resources that are available at the local level and with which people are most often familiar as part of their everyday lives. Among the population, the most vulnerable categories are the elderly and children, and they should be the first to be evacuated from endangered areas in the event of a disaster. Disaster aid planners should incorporate the greater needs of people in the most disadvantaged positions into disaster aid planning and also have detailed knowledge of local sensitivity patterns to provide appropriate targeted relief. One way to achieve the mentioned goal is certainly the conducting of local studies. The importance of social readiness to mitigate losses from floods is especially emphasized in circumstances where the technical capabilities of forecasting and warning are limited. Local government and authorities can devise an integrated disaster management plan that ensures the active participation of local communities and other stakeholders. Vulnerability can be reduced by organizing awareness-raising programs and workshops on precautionary and mitigation measures aimed at preparing communities, especially farmers, for possible future impact reduction. Similarly, household resilience can be increased by providing opportunities for employment diversification and means of livelihood, especially for farmers. These activities will increase resilience and thus reduce future impacts. Civic participation can also affect risk perception, as direct involvement in disaster mitigation projects can help local communities better understand and assess their own vulnerability to floods. Volunteering has the potential to increase the number of social connections among residents, leading to greater reserves of structural social capital, a component that is also extremely relevant in the flood response and recovery phase. Therefore, leveraging capacity should be an integral part of disaster risk reduction strategies, which is recognized in the widespread practice of vulnerability and capacity assessment. Finally, leveraging capacity for disaster risk reduction requires encouraging genuine participation of people in assessing and enhancing their existing knowledge, skills, and resources.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Radonjić, S. (2022). Ugrožavanje bezbednosti lokalnih zajednica u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim poplavama. Politika nacionalne sigurnosti, 13 (22), 81-105.
Public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters
The aim of the research is the examination of the factors influencing the public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding testing the central hypothesis where education is the predicting variable of public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent of the total scores of the main dependent variables (perception of vulnerability to climate change, perception of the climate change impact on natural disasters, knowledge and fear scores) were associated with five demographic and socio-economic variables: gender, age, marital status, education level, and employment status. A series of 208 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the beginning of 2020 on the central squares in the selected cities in Serbia, Belgrade (76.92%) and Sremska Mitrovica (23.08%). The results showed that education level was the most effective predictor of the mentioned research variables. Besides, employment status has been found to affect perceptions of vulnerability, while age affects the perceptions of climate change. Based on the obtained results, policies and strategies to improve people’s awareness of climate change must take into account a comprehensive understanding of behavioral dispositions.
Conclusion: Understanding people’s perceptions of climate change is not mere research but a necessary and obligatory precondition in creating and devising adaptation strategies to climate change. In our study, it was found that respondents are aware of climate change, but the dimension of objective knowledge of the processes, causes, and consequences of climate change is insufficiently examined. Most respondents are well acquainted with the connection between climate change and natural disasters, but it remains to examine several dimensions that can provide a clearer understanding of such impacts. All the strategies to mitigate the causes and consequences of climate change are rooted primarily in a comprehensive understanding of behavioral dispositions. Policies and strategies to improve people’s awareness of climate change, and campaigns to reduce the causes that lead to the negative consequences of these phenomena must very precisely consider the different demographic and socio-economic characteristics of people in the areas where they are implemented, or their success will be insufficiently guaranteed. In the following research, it is necessary to conduct comprehensive multi-method research, which should include a larger number of respondents from different parts of the country.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Grbić, L. (2021). Public perception of climate change and its impact on natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, 71(1), 43-58.
Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires (Pripremljenost privatnog obezbeđenja za katastrofe izazvane požarima)
Abstract: The subject of the research was the examination of the factors of influence on the preparedness of the private security for disasters caused by fire. In addition to determining the preparedness index, there are deeper insights into the interrelationships between various selected variables and the level of preparedness of members of the private security. Using the random sampling method, 300 adult members of the private security were selected, and they participated in the research. The results of the research indicate that members of private security were not sufficiently prepared to react to fires. The research results could be used as a starting point for conducting further research in this area as improvement in training of security personnel plays an important role in disaster control and prevention, thereby producing more safe and secure work environment and society.
Conslusion: Starting from the subject of research, the paper identifies numerous results that largely represent the current situation in terms of private security preparedness for disasters caused by fire. It was found that certain factors greatly affect the level of preparedness, while on the other hand, some factors do not have such an impact. Certainly, the level of preparedness determined after the research indicates a sufficient level of knowledge of security procedures and how to react in such situations. However, it is necessary to improve the legislation that would further accelerate the implementation of training and exercises that raise the level of operability of members of such services. In future research, it is necessary to conduct tests to assess the real situation on the ground in the most impartial and objective way in terms of knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness for such situations.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Pavlović, S., & Janković, B. (2021). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by fires. Journal of Criminalistic and Law, NBP, 26(1), 35-59.
Private Security Preparedness for Disasters Caused by Natural and Anthropogenic Hazards
The subject of the research is to examine the private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards. In addition, the relationship between preparedness levels and various demographic and socio-economic factors is examined. The survey was anonymous with 4-point Likert scale questions (1- I absolutely disagree; 4- I absolutely agree). It was conducted at the University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies in Belgrade, during the initial course for obtaining a private security license and the course for combating domestic violence were attended by members of the police from all over Serbia. Data for the study were collected from a total of 178 members of private security. The research was conducted from April to June 2019. Within the first part of the questionnaire, there were questions concerning demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the respondents (gender, age, education, marital status, working experience, served military status), while the second part contained questions about the private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards (e.g perception of the degree of responsibility due to the type of work performed in case of natural and anthropogenic disasters, perception of the level of preparedness of a private insurance company, knowledge of safety procedures for disaster response, evaluation of the response efficiency of first responders, etc.). The results of the multivariate regressions of preparedness subscale showed that variables (e.g., gender, age, education, marital status) were not significantly affected by preparedness.
Conclusion: Members of private security are mostly accustomed to facing threats that primarily come from people. This is why their level of preparedness to react to disasters caused by natural or anthropogenic influences remains at a very low level. On the other hand, the increase in the number and severity of disaster consequences imposes the need for further training and development to respond to disaster-induced conditions. The obtained research results clearly indicate the urgent need to design appropriate strategies and programs to enhance the education and training of private security members. A very low level of training attendance was identified, which would enable members to better prepare and improve the efficiency of their response. The limitations of the conducted research are reflected in the insufficient number of respondents covered by the research, as well as the insufficient representation of various private security agencies. In further research, it is necessary to examine more deeply and comprehensively all the needs and possibilities for private security members to react more efficiently in given situations.
Reference: Cvetković, V., & Janković, B. (2020). Private security preparedness for disasters caused by natural and anthropogenic hazards. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(1), 23-33.
Security risks of climate change: case study of Belgrade
Based on the negative impact of climate change, the aim of quantitative research is to examine models for predicting the impact of demographic and sociocultural factors on citizens’ attitudes to security risks of climate change. Using the random sample method, during the 2019, a survey of citizens was conducted in Belgrade’s central square and included 438 respondents. The results of the research show that the conceived prediction model is statistically significant, and that the attitude of the respondents is influenced by different predictors, the most important of which is the level of education, age and sex of the respondents. Starting from the obtained research results, it is necessary to devise and implement educational programs for improving the awareness of citizens about the negative implications of climate change.
Conclusion: Security risks of climate change will no doubt continue to attract the attention of researchers worldwide due to the necessity of a more detailed explanation of present and future security threats. For these reasons, it is crucial to conduct ongoing research to implement relevant conclusions and recommendations in strategic decisions, enabling political decision-makers to address the issue of climate change before it is too late. The above-mentioned research found that most citizens are informed about the security risks of climate change, with electronic media (television and radio) being the most frequent source of information and printed publications (books, magazines, newspaper articles, etc.) being the least frequent. Therefore, it is necessary to devise, implement, and apply methods to improve citizens’ awareness of the negative implications of climate change through electronic media, educational institutions, the internet, and printed publications. Television and radio programs should be enhanced to systematically inform citizens about the causes, consequences, and ways to reduce the negative impacts of climate change. Additionally, improving individual, institutional, and overall social preparedness for reacting to expected disasters due to climate change requires determining the level of citizens’ awareness to develop adequate educational programs and workshops. It is necessary to create or adapt educational programs that would be broadcast on television and radio, disseminating all relevant information on the negative aspects of climate change. Special consideration should be given to tailoring educational programs to different age groups. Although the results indicate that most citizens are aware that climate change seriously disrupts normal functioning, almost one-third are not aware of it at all. This raises the question of the level of objective information about the security risks of climate change, which could be examined in future research by testing knowledge and awareness. It is noteworthy that positive results show most citizens recognize that climate change directly increases the frequency and severity of disasters. Therefore, certain preventive measures should be taken to encourage citizens and institutions to avoid further contributing to climate change through their decisions, measures, and activities. Considering that the strongest predictor of people’s attitudes towards the impact of climate change on their normal functioning, security, and its deterioration is their level of education, it is crucial to emphasize the importance of introducing additional education through existing subjects or new subjects addressing security risks of climate change. Given that educational institutions, after electronic media, are the most frequent method of informing citizens, it is necessary to focus on developing teaching content in the field of security. Efforts should be made to introduce a special subject, “Security Culture,” in primary and secondary schools. This subject would enable students to acquire their first knowledge and raise their level of security culture and resilience (Cvetković & Filipović, 2018).
Reference – Cvetković, V., Tomašević, K., & Milašinović, (2019). Security risks of climate change: a case study of Belgrade. Sociological Review, 53(2), 596–626.
Examination of citizens’ attitudes towards providign support to vulnerable people and voluntereeing during disasters
The subject of quantitative research is to examine the factors influencing citizens’ attitudes towards assisting vulnerable people and volunteering during natural disasters. In this paper, the authors examine the relationship between gender, age, level of education, marital status, employment, income level and perception of personal religiosity, and the attitudes to assisting vulnerable people and volunteering. Multiple-point random sampling was used to survey 2500 citizens in the area of 19 local communities endangered by the consequences of natural disasters. The results of the survey show that 29% of respondents would provide assistance to vulnerable people in the form of money, 18,2% in the form of food and water, 21,6% in clothing and footwear, 23,3% would volunteer, while 4,6% would engage in shelter centers for endangered people. In addition, it was found that there was no statistically significant relationship between the attitudes towards providing assistance in the form of money and the employment status. As well as, attitudes about volunteering and provision of food and water assistance are not related to the employment status of respondents, etc. The results of the research can be used to improve the management system in natural disasters and to create appropriate educational programs for establishing a more efficient and comprehensive system of assistance to vulnerable people and the operation of volunteer organizations. Key words: natural disasters, attitudes about helping, providing assistance, volunteering. Predmet ovog kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje faktora koji utiču na formiranje stavova građana o pružanju pomoći ugroženim lјudima i volontiranju za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. U radu autori ispituju poveza-nost pola, godina starosti, nivoa obrazovanja, bračnog statusa, zaposlenosti, visine prihoda i percepcije lične religioznosti sa stavovima o pružanju pomoći ugroženim lјudima i volontiranju. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana na području 19 lokalnih zajednica ugroženih posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi 29% ispi-tanika pružilo pomoć ugroženim lјudima u vidu novca, 18,2% u vidu hrane i vode, 21,6% u vidu odeće i obuće, 23,3% bi volontiralo, dok bi se 4,6% angažovalo u centrima za prijem ugroženih lјudi. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost stavova o pružanju pomoći u vidu novca sa sta-tusom zaposlenosti. Takođe, stavovi o volonterstvu i pružanju pomoći u vidu hrane i vode nisu povezani sa statusom zaposlenosti ispitanika itd. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje sistema upravlјanja u pri-rodnim katastrofama i stvaranje odgovarajućih obrazovnih programa za uspostavlјanje efikasnijeg i sveobuhvatnijeg sistema pružanja pomoći ugroženim lјudima i rada volonterskih organizacija.
Conslusion: Causing serious consequences for people and their property, natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, forest fires, etc.) in Serbia constantly endanger the safety of its citizens. Although serious efforts are made by the relevant authorities and first responders to prevent or mitigate the consequences of such events, a large number of citizens continue to be directly or indirectly threatened. On the other hand, despite the developed and modern legislative regulations, training, plans, and equipment of first responders in Serbia for responding to natural disasters, assistance and engagement of citizens in affected areas is still of crucial importance for a more efficient response. For these reasons, the authors in the work, using quantitative research tradition, examined factors of influence on citizens’ attitudes towards helping affected people and volunteering during natural disasters. Although in Serbia, which is widely known to the public, the average wage is low and the unemployment rate is higher than in certain countries in the region, it has been found that respondents are most likely to provide help to vulnerable people in the form of money, and then in the form of clothing and footwear, food, and water. Such results are somewhat expected, bearing in mind that money is a more universal means of assistance that enables the supply of food, but also the restoration of a home or apartment. Also, the results show that citizens would volunteer much more than engage in the centers for receiving vulnerable people. Based on these results, additional research needs to be carried out in order to examine the reasons why citizens would rather give money as a form of help and why they would rather volunteer than engage in the shelter center for vulnerable people. Motivation to provide help to endangered people and volunteering is, as mentioned above, affected by various personal and environmental factors. Thereby, the authors examining the barriers to providing help and volunteering found that as a reason for not providing help and volunteering, citizens mostly state that it is the job of state authorities, that others have helped enough, that citizens from affected areas primarily should be engaged, that they did not have enough time for such activities, and that such activities cost too much. As it can be seen from the results presented, although it was expected that money would represent the main barrier, it was established that it is the attitude of the citizens that this is the job of state bodies. Reasons can be found in a specific cultural system in which citizens rely more or less on the state as a kind of guarantor of their security. By examining the impacts of gender, age, level of education, marital status, employment status, income level, and perceptions of personal religiosity on attitudes to help vulnerable people and volunteering, a rich treasury of data has emerged. Given the research results of the impacts of these factors, it is very important to stimulate the citizens of different genders to get involved more in helping in those forms where it is determined they help more. It is necessary to stimulate men to help more in the field, while women in centers because these are gender differences and should not be eliminated, but education programs should take into account relevant motives in relation to gender, and in relation to other characteristics of individuals, as well. Based on the results related to the impacts of the age of citizens, it is necessary to influence the citizens over 68 years of age to be more engaged as volunteers, and to provide specific help having in mind their health and financial status. They should be stimulated to help in a certain way such as giving information, stacking clothes, talking to victims, etc. It is also necessary to influence the citizens with lower education levels to engage more in the provision of various forms of help and volunteering. In addition, it is essential to influence the citizens who are devout believers to engage in providing assistance and protecting material goods in the field and in shelter centers for vulnerable people, etc. The research results can be used when designing appropriate strategies and programs for improving the provision of help and the work of volunteer organizations, and, on the other hand, for the establishment of a more effective and comprehensive system for managing natural disasters. On this occasion, particular attention should be paid to the results of the examined effects of certain personal and environmental factors. Despite the efforts to highlight most of the issues of providing help and volunteering in natural disasters, a large number of research questions remain to be actualized in future research. One of these questions also refers to the examination of the influence of television, radio, the Internet, etc. on the motivation of citizens to provide help and volunteer.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Milašinović, S., & Lazić, Ž. (2018). Examination of citizens’ attitudes towards providing support to vulnerable people and volunteering during disasters. Journal for social sciences, TEME, 42(1), 35-56.
Knowledge of secondary school students in Belgrade as an element of flood preparedness
The consequences of the floods that inundated the territory of Serbia in 2014 indicated a high level of citizen unpreparedness to respond to the situation. Starting from this fact, the basic idea of this research is to examine the level and correlation of certain factors with the student’s knowledge about floods as natural disasters. The research aims to scientifically explain the correlation between students’ knowledge about floods and these factors. The research consisted of a survey on a sample of 3,498 respondents who comprise 8.96% of the student population. The respondents were students from 19 secondary schools, out of a total of 54 in the territory of 11 affected municipalities of the city of Belgrade. The research results suggest that flood related knowledge is influenced by the student’s gender, education and employment status of parents, and education acquired in school and the family, while the knowledge of safety procedures for responding to floods is influenced by fear, gender and the educational level of parents. These results can be used in creating educational programme strategies to enhance preparedness for response.
Conclusion: Judging by the results of the research, there is a statistically significant correlation between the gender of the respondents, on the one hand, and perception, knowledge, and disaster preparedness for responding to natural disasters caused by flooding, on the other hand. Female respondents have better perceptions and knowledge, while male respondents are more prepared to react in such situations. Flood education should focus on developing the capacity of girls to respond and on developing boys’ perception and knowledge of floods. On the other hand, such a statistically significant correlation does not exist with the age of the respondents or the previous experience of their fathers, mothers, grandfathers, and grandmothers. Furthermore, the results show a statistically significant correlation between the education of the father and mother, on the one hand, and knowledge, perceptions, and disaster preparedness for responding to natural disasters caused by flooding, on the other hand. In addition, the results indicate a statistically significant correlation between education in the family and the perception and knowledge of natural disasters caused by flooding. When it comes to education in school, it is also correlated only with perception and knowledge. The fear of flooding affects the perception and familiarity with safety response procedures. A statistically significant correlation has been established between obtaining flood-related information through television, the internet, video games, radio, and lectures, and knowledge of natural disasters caused by flooding. On the other hand, there is no correlation between the radio and lectures and the perception of flooding. The research results indicate the great importance of education about natural disasters caused by floods, both in school and in the family. In view of that, educational policymakers can use these findings to perform a thorough analysis of primary and secondary school curricula and determine to what extent the relevant content is incorporated in the curricula. Undoubtedly, it imposes on us an obligation to continue researching this topic and to find strategies for working with students in a way that enhances their preparedness for responding to natural disasters caused by flooding.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Lipovac, M., & Milojković, B. (2016). Knowledge of secondary school students in Belgrade as an element of flood preparedness. Journal for social sciences, TEME, 15(4), 1259-1273.
Fear and floods in Serbia: Citizens preparedness for responding to natural disaster (Strah i poplave u Srbiji: pripremljenost građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe)
The consequences of the floods that had affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing who do not have fear are not doing anything to prepare themselves to react in such situations, they are confident in their own abilities to cope with the consequences of floods, etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia there has never been conducted a research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. Keywords: natural disasters, floods, citizens, gender, preparedness for response, Serbia.
Conclusion: Citizens who are afraid, in a higher percentage compared to citizens who are not, would take certain preventive measures to reduce the material consequences of flooding; prolonged rains prompt them to think about their readiness to respond to floods and rising water levels; they state that they are still not ready to respond, but plan to do so in the next six months; they have recently started preparations; they state that the emergency rescue services will help them, so they do not need such measures; they state that preparation measures are very expensive; they expect help from household members and international humanitarian organizations; they are informed about flood risks; they know what a flood is; they know safety procedures; they would evacuate to the higher floors of the house; they state that someone in the family has educated them about floods; they state that someone at work has educated them about floods; they know where the elderly, disabled, and infants live in the local community; they state that they would evacuate when a flood wave is expected, which could endanger health and life; they know what kind of help the elderly, disabled, and infants require; they know what to do after an official warning about an approaching flood wave; they are familiar with the viruses and infections that follow the period after the flood; they know where the water valve, gas valve, and electric switch are located; they know how to operate the water valve, gas valve, and electric switch; they have obtained information about floods from neighbors, radio, and newspapers; they have supplies, water supplies for four days, a transistor radio, a flashlight, a shovel, a pickaxe, a hoe, a fire extinguisher; they replenish supplies once a month; they have a first aid kit at home and in the car, keep the first aid kit in an easily accessible place; they discuss flood response plans; they have copies of important personal, financial, and insurance documents, they are insured against flood consequences. Conversely, citizens who are not afraid, in a higher percentage compared to citizens who are afraid, would donate money to help flood victims; visiting flooded areas and media reports prompt them to think about their readiness to respond to floods; they are still not ready but will start preparations next month; they do nothing to prepare themselves for response in such situations; they are confident in their abilities to cope with the consequences of the flood; they would evacuate to friends’ houses and reception centers; they state that their neighbors can save themselves in the event of a flood; they have obtained information about floods in school, college, through non-formal education systems, at work; they would like to be educated through television and the internet; they have water supplies for one or two days, replenish supplies once a year or never replenish supplies. Recommendations for improving preparedness: encourage citizens who are afraid to donate money to help victims when necessary; use visits to flooded areas as a way to encourage improvement of preparedness measures; influence citizens to take certain measures to improve preparedness; influence through education and training to raise the level of confidence in their ability to respond to a higher level; encourage them to obtain water supplies for one or two days and to replenish supplies once a month. Encourage citizens who are not afraid to take preventive preparedness measures; use images and footage of prolonged rains and rising water levels to prompt them to think about preparedness measures; influence them to raise the level of awareness about potential flood risks; educate them about floods; familiarize them with safety response procedures; influence awareness of the necessity of evacuation during the approach of a flood wave; encourage education through television and the internet; encourage them to obtain supplies, water supplies for four days, a transistor radio, a flashlight, a shovel, a pickaxe, a hoe, a fire extinguisher; influence them to discuss response plans with household members; to possess insurance documents and to insure their households.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2016). Fear and floods in Serbia: Citizens preparedness for responding to natural disaster. Matica Srpska Journal of Social Sciences, 155(2), 303-324.
Perceptions of private security: А case study of students from Serbia and North Macedonia
In the last two decades of the 21st century, significant development of the private security industry has taken place in Serbia and North Macedonia. However, the private security industry in these two countries did not reach professional standards as in other countries of the former Yugoslavia. The aim of this paper was to determine students’ perceptions of private security and its employees. The survey data were collected using an anonymous survey of 354 students (296 from Serbia and 58 from North Macedonia). In both countries, attitudes are heterogeneous, but a relatively small number of respondents have expressed a high level of perception of private security. The research has shown that gender, as one of demographic characteristics, has its role in shaping young people’s views on private security, that is, the female population has more positive views about private security guards, their integrity, and the nature of the private security job. The findings offer policy-makers and private security companies the opportunity to develop new strategies to improve public attitudes towards private security.
Conclusion: The results of an empirical study indicate that the public, especially the younger population, in transition societies such as Serbia and North Macedonia, do not have a high degree of positive perception of private security. Compared to earlier research, it can be observed that the attitudes of young people in Serbia towards private security officers are more favorable than they were before, while in North Macedonia they remained at a similar level. The public should get used to the transition from a society where the police were the only ones in charge of citizens’ security, while in societies with a regulated market economy, a great part of that role was taken over by the private security industry. The research findings indicate that the female population has a better perception of private security. These findings offer policymakers and private security companies the opportunity to deploy new strategies to upgrade public attitudes towards private security, especially aimed at the male population. Also, the results of this study indicate the importance of the role and training of private security officers in shaping citizens’ confidence in them. The authors are aware that the findings have their limitations because the research was conducted only within a narrow population of young students, and the results obtained cannot be generalized because there are no views of the wider population in the paper. It would be particularly interesting to see in future research the views of the citizens of Serbia and North Macedonia born in the age of socialism when there were no private security companies, and whether their views differ from those of the young population.
Reference – Janković, B., Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2019). Perceptions of private security: А case study of students from Serbia and North Macedonia. Journal of Criminalistics and Law, NBP, 24(3), 59-73.
Innovative solutions for flood risk management
Starting from the importance of innovative solutions for improving the needs of different practitioners as flood risk managers, the purpose of this review was to describe and analyze, evaluates, and prioritizes the various available different innovative solutions that have sufficient potential to be useful and used by practitioners. A systematic review of the literature was conducted using the DAREnet knowledge base (an integral feature of the DAREnet online community platform) which identified critical challenges for flood management and the relevant field or source of innovation, as well as the current scientific literature in the field of disaster studies. A fourth stage selection procedure identified candidate original or review papers and evaluated the degree to which papers met predetermined requirements for inclusion extracted from prior systematic reviews. Included in the study were over 100 studies that met the requirements for predetermined inclusion. The findings of this review showed that there is a huge untapped potential for innovative solutions in the field of prevention, preparedness, civil protection, communication, cooperation, etc. The findings of this review contribute to a growing body of knowledge regarding innovative solutions for flood risk management useful for practitioners. Keywords: disasters, floods, risk management, innovative solutions, DAREnet.
Conclusion: The results of the research show significant and progressive progress in innovative solutions in the field of flood risk management. It is interesting to mention that a large number of innovative solutions were created by conducting research after flood disasters that caused specific tangible and intangible consequences and also motivated researchers to find an adequate solution. However, in many countries, the available innovative solutions are not implemented quickly enough for various reasons such as lack of money, lack of sufficient motivation, misunderstanding by the general public about the importance of such measures, and unprofessional risk management in such situations. The paper reviews certain and selected innovative solutions, of which there are many more in practice, but due to technical limitations in writing the paper, we were unable to systematize them and give a brief overview. In the future, it is necessary to continue continuous research, develop national knowledge bases that would be nourished by innovative solutions, and improve the exchange of knowledge and experience between developed and underdeveloped countries.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Martinović, J. (2020). Inovative solutions for flood risk management. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 2(2), 71-100.
Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade
Abstract: Starting from the frequency and seriousness of fire in residential buildings in the area of Belgrade, this paper presents the results of research on the perception of citizens’ risks of fires in residential buildings. A series of 322 face-to-face interviews were conducted at the beginning of 2017 in Belgrade. The results of multivariate regressions of risk perception of building fires show that the most important predictor of perceived risk of building fires is fear, age, employment status, income level, and marital status. The remaining variables (e.g., gender, education level, previous experience) did not have a significant impact. Respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and elderly people perceive the higher level of risk in relation to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes and younger persons. The results of the research can be used to improve the level of safety of citizens by raising their awareness of the risks of fires in housing facilities by designing and using appropriate educational programs and campaigns. Keywords: fire risk; perception; building fires; Belgrade.
Conclusion: Understanding the perception of the risk of fire in residential buildings is a prerequisite for effective disaster risk management and for improving the safety of citizens. If citizens do not have an awareness of the risks of a fire, it is simply impossible to expect a high level of willingness to react in such situations. The results of the survey clearly show that respondents who have fear, are married, have higher income, and older people are more likely to perceive the level of risk compared to those who have no fear, live alone, have lower incomes, and younger people. In accordance with the results obtained, it is necessary to devise and implement certain educational programs and campaigns that would primarily target citizens who live alone, have lower incomes and younger ones. Naturally, given the generally low level of awareness among all citizens of such risks, it is necessary to undertake various activities in order to change the situation in a positive way. The survey that was conducted in 2017 also had its limitations that looked at the random selection of respondents in several dozen endangered buildings from the city of Belgrade. In future research, it is necessary to include
housing facilities in different parts of the city so that the sample of the respondents would be even more representative. The scientific implications of the research are reflected in the creation of a solid empirical and theoretical knowledge fund that allows the results to be compared with other similar research carried out in different social and cultural circumstances and ambiances. The importance of research for improving the safety of citizens is very high and it is necessary to undertake certain proactive activities in a shorter period of time in order to educate and train citizens in time to react in such situations.
Reference – Cvetkovic, V. M. (2019). Risk Perception of Building Fires in Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(1), 81-91.
Demographic, socio-economic and phycological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade
Abstract: Taking into account that floods are a very common occurrence in the Republic of Serbia, as well as the fact that they directly endanger the life and health of people, their property and the environment, it is necessary to see how an individual perceives the risk of a natural disaster caused by a flood. By what is mentioned earlier, the research on which this paper is based was conducted in the area of several Belgrade municipalities-Palilula, Zemun, New Belgrade, Old Town, Savski Venac, Grocka and Čukarica, with a sample of 120 respondents and examined the perception of risk among the citizens of Belgrade. The results of the research show that there is a correlation between demographic (gender, age and education), socioeconomic (property ownership and income levels) and psychological (fear and previous experience) factors with risk perception. Based on the results of the research and the knowledge gained, recommendations can be made that the competent authorities, institutions and organizations will be able to use in their educational activities, all with the aim of improving the perception of risk in the population. In this way, conditions are created for the implementation of preventive activities that can significantly reduce the consequences of natural disasters.
Conclusion: Starting with the fact that risk perception is a complex term which correlates with a cer-tain amount of factors, it is necessary to examine their influence adequately, in order to plan actions in the future which could benefit the reduction of negative consequences of floods. Based on the results of the research and knowledge gained references could be given which the authorities, institutions and organizations could use in their educational activities, all with the purpose of advancing risk perception among the population. In that manner, con-ditions to implement preventive actions which can be used to reduce the consequences of natural disasters, can be used. In this case, the results indicate that the education of senior citizens and women should be focused upon, in addition to inventing programs which would as a certain goal have the presentation f actions which could be used as a reduction of flood risk. As previously mentioned, risk perception presents an intensely complex term on which, in certain measures, different factors can influence upon. Therefore it is of importance to conduct further research which would indicate potential changes which could appear in the future. What is mentioned is of utmost importance when considering the continuous devel-opment and progress of the society which is conditioning changes, either in the human en-vironment or human perception of the mentioned environment. Thus, with further research of various factors, measures could be recommended which would go side by side with the changes, would be the most efficient and have the best performance.
Reference – Perić, J., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Demographic, socio-economic and phycological perspective of risk perception from disasters caused by floods: case study Belgrade. International Journal of Disaster Risk Management, 1(2), 31-43
Comparative analysis of disaster risk management policies in the region of South-East Europe
Abstract: Using measures for sustainable development and reducing the risk of disasters in order to protect the population, goods and the environment is the duty of every state in the fight against security challenges that disasters bring. Disaster risk reduction is a multidisciplinary policy designed to implement various measures to strengthen community resilience and preparedness for disasters. The region of Southeast Europe is recognized as extremely endangered by natural disasters. The countries of the region, especially their national risk management policies, continue to be based in part on solutions from earlier times. The subject of the research is focused on the analysis of disaster risk management policies in the countries of Southeast Europe, their comparison and review of similarities and differences. The countries of this region base their policies on similar solutions aimed at reducing the risk of disasters. There are shortcomings in the full implementation of the adopted international frameworks in the national risk management policies and normative-legal frameworks in certain countries of this region.
Conclusion: Disaster risk management policy, nowadays, is a very important factor for national and international policies. Observing the increase in the frequency, intensity, and devastation of disasters, the cause of which is most often associated with increasingly pronounced climate change, disaster risk management policy will become a key factor in the future. Disasters and their consequences, both on the population and infrastructure, economic flows, and food production, require a studious and comprehensive approach. Properly and precisely regulated policy of disaster risk management should be the goal of every country in the world, regardless of whether they are economically developed or developing countries.
Disasters, especially natural ones, know no borders, so it is important to point out that the regulation of risk management policy in the right way must primarily come from the international level. Just as it is important to prescribe and adopt international frameworks for disaster risk reduction, their implementation and application within risk management policies at the national level is equally important, if not greater. The analysis of professional literature and normative-legal regulations has noticed the lack of full application of ratified and adopted international frameworks in national disaster risk management policies. Each state applies international frameworks and agreements to the extent appropriate to national interests and capabilities. The region of Southeast Europe and the Balkan Peninsula is recognized as extremely endangered by natural disasters. The countries of the region, especially the members of the former SFRY, continue to base their national risk management policies in part on the solutions prescribed during the socialist era. The consequences of wars and political turmoil have left their mark on insufficient communication and the necessity for developing relations for bilateral and multilateral cooperation within the region. The catastrophic floods of 2014 underlined the need for cooperation in the field of prevention, response, and rehabilitation of the consequences of disasters. The analysis of normative-legal sources came to the conclusion that national disaster risk management policies are indeed based on approximately similar principles and postulates. The part of risk management policy related to disaster mitigation is indeed regulated in a similar way in the countries of Southeast Europe. It was also confirmed that the issue of preparedness for the coming disasters is regulated in a similar way in the countries of the region. Finally, the assertion that a part of national disaster response policies is based on similar solutions has been ascertained. The analysis of the normative-legal framework of the countries of the Southeast Europe region established the same similarity in all national governance policies, and that there is a tendency for all countries to focus on disaster prevention, rather than disaster response and recovery, as has been the case so far. States seem to have realized that it is economically much more profitable to invest in prevention measures than to pay damages after a disaster. This aspiration is in line with international frameworks governing disaster risk management policies, such as the Hyogo and Sendai frameworks. All countries in the region understand the importance of creating a database of potential dangers and disasters, accompanied by risk maps, as well as preparations for their possible occurrence. With the National Strategy for Emergency Situations, Montenegro has stepped in the direction of improving the disaster risk reduction system, led by guidelines in the direction of integrating these goals into national policy and affirming these goals through bilateral, regional, and wider international cooperation. When it comes to BiH, the Ministry of Security, through the Protection and Rescue Sector, treats the issue of including disaster risk management in national policies as very important. The Croatian legal framework is more focused on crisis management than preparation and mitigation, and appropriate risk, threat, and vulnerability assessments are also needed. In terms of risk management, Bulgaria is guided by well-laid foundations in the form of the Law on Disaster Protection, but is also guided by principles and guidelines that point to a different orientation and direction from a system that responds to a system of comprehensive approach and equal evaluation of prevention, preparedness, and recovery activities. Bulgaria also has a National Disaster Protection Program and a National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy. North Macedonia has a Law on Protection and Rescue, a National Strategy for Protection and Rescue, as well as a National Plan for Protection and Rescue from Natural Disasters, and further activities regarding the functioning of the regulatory framework governing disaster risk management are based on the need for missing laws and regulations, which would complete the legal framework for protection and rescue. When it comes to Greece, the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction has established a network of government agencies and other relevant agencies.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Todorović, S. (2021). Comparative analysis of disaster risk management policies in the region of south-east Europe. International yearbook Faculty of Security Studies, 1, 7-17. doi:10.20544/IYFS.39.1.19.P01
Earthquake risk perception in Belgrade: implications for disaster risk management
Abstract: This paper presents quantitative research results regarding the influence of demographic factors on the earthquake risk perception of the citizens of Belgrade. This research aims to determine how much the citizens of Belgrade are aware of the risk and prepared to react in the event of an earthquake. The relationship between gender, age, level of education, and facility ownership with risk perception was examined. T-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to examine the relationship between the variables and the earthquake risk perception. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was given and then collected online among 235 Belgrade respondents during September 2020. The questions were divided into three categories. The first part of the questionnaire was consisted of general questions about the demographic characteristics of the respondents, then the questions that would determine the level of awareness of the respondents about earthquakes, and finally, the questions for determining the respondents’ preparedness. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents from the age category of 18-30 have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education level in no case showed a statistically significant correlation with risk perception.
Conclusion: People’s behavior in minimizing danger stems from their perception of risk, probability of danger, efficiency, cost of personal precautions, and perception of potential consequences. Misperception of risk can lead to more significant consequences and losses. It is the perception of risk that shapes individuals’ behavior before and during danger. Therefore, it is justified and necessary to study the perception of risk and the factors that shape individuals’ risk perception. When reviewing current domestic and foreign literature, different results were observed. Some studies confirmed the influence of certain factors, while other research identified different factors affecting risk perception. It is concluded that various factors can shape the perception of risk, primarily demographic, socio-economic, and psychological factors. This research aimed to examine the perception of risk among citizens of Belgrade from natural disasters caused by earthquakes and the impact of demographic factors on risk perception. Earthquakes occur frequently, but in most cases, they are of low intensity. However, more destructive ones are possible, which can cause significant consequences and high mortality. In 2010, an earthquake in Kraljevo, Serbia, took two lives and caused significant material damage. The results of the research show that women have a higher perception of risk. It has been proven that the youngest respondents, aged 18-30, have the lowest risk perception. The influence of education levels showed no statistically significant correlation with risk perception. The association of gender with preparedness was confirmed; men were better prepared than women, while no statistically significant association was found between respondents’ age and level of education. Given the relatively high percentage of respondents unsure whether their city is at risk from earthquakes and the low levels of respondents’ preparedness, it is clear that insufficient attention is paid to educating and informing citizens about natural disasters caused by earthquakes. It is necessary to follow the examples of developed countries that have incorporated disaster education into the education system, such as Japan (Shaw et al., 2004). The results obtained in this research can serve as guidelines and recommendations for authorities and institutions, which can use them in their educational programs to improve the perception of the risk of natural disasters among citizens. By implementing educational and preventive activities, the consequences of natural disasters can be significantly reduced. Earthquakes occur over a brief period. Practical efforts to adapt to and cope with earthquakes rely essentially on the extent to which the required knowledge, resources, and competencies are organized in advance and whether they are used quickly and efficiently if the need arises. Understanding how the public perceives earthquake risk is an essential first step in assessing a community’s seismic vulnerability. This information can be crucial for professionals and policymakers to design mitigation strategies, prepare evacuation guidelines, and implement an effective disaster response. The results of this research provide insight into the attitudes and preparedness of the citizens of Belgrade, and given that risk perception plays a crucial role in taking preventive measures, it is imperative to conduct regular risk perception surveys. Few papers in the domestic literature deal with this topic, and given the seriousness of the consequences that earthquakes can cause, it is necessary to conduct regular research to monitor changes in the perception of risks that may occur in the future. Further research into the factors influencing risk perception could recommend effective measures that align with changes in the social environment. Future research should cover a larger part of the territory of the Republic of Serbia and a greater number of respondents.
Reference – Planić, J. & Cvetković, V. (2021) Earthquake Risk Perception in Belgrade: Implications for Disaster Risk Management. Preprints 2021, 2021100397 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202110.0397.v1).
Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction
This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the fire safety behavior model for residential buildings in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a requested and collected questionnaire from 540 respondents during April 2020. The study’s objective was to determine to what degree the education level and gender influence the prediction of the fire safety behavior model (individual preparedness, personal security, fire risk, knowledge on fire protection) for residential buildings in Serbia. The multivariate regression analyses showed the most important predictor of individual preparedness, personal security, and fire risk perception was gender. On the other hand, education level, ownership status, and monthly income did not significantly affect individual preparedness for fire protection, personal security, fire risk, and prevention knowledge. Also, the results showed the main reasons for not taking preventive actions are the high cost of the equipment then, not being familiar with the exact measures to take, believing that the emergency services would provide them with the necessary assistance, the lack of time etc. The obtained results can be used to improve the preparedness of citizens to respond timely and appropriately to fires in residential buildings and create programs and campaigns to improve awareness among the general public.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Dragašević, A., Protić, D., Janković, B., Nikolić, N., & Predrag, M. (2021). Fire Safety Behavior Model for Residential Buildings: Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Disaster Risk Reduction System in the Republic of North Macedonia
The subject of interest in this paper is the presentation and elaboration of the disaster risk reduction system in North Macedonia, through the analysis of the strategic and legal framework, the established national platform and the institutions that are part of it, as well as their competencies. The term “disaster risk reduction system” is used in the paper, implying two subsystems: a crisis management system and a protection and rescue system, which are the result of the highest state strategic documents and the adopted legal framework. Disaster risk reduction implies an overall coordinated, multisectoral approach, interdisciplinary in nature, including all social entities (from citizens to the most complex social organizations). The assumption for achieving this goal implies the realization of a situation that would be closest to the desired one in terms of the “risk management” process. On the other hand, the social way of life in the modern world implies a daily change in the way of life and especially an increase in the so-called “manufactured risks”, which are basically risks that are created by the way people live. In order to achieve the stated goals in full capacity, North Macedonia has many tasks and challenges ahead of it. Namely, risk management should overall contribute to increasing the resilience of society, which in the simplest sense of the word should ensure maximum predictability of risks and threats, their prevention or handling in a way that will cause the least consequences, ensuring a normal and usual way of life of the citizens. Predmet interesovanja u ovom radu je predstavljanje i razrada sistema smanjenja rizika od katastrofa u Severnoj Makedoniji, kroz analizu strateškog i pravnog okvira, uspostavljene nacionalne platforme i institucija koje su u njenom sastavu, kao i njihovih nadležnosti. . U radu se koristi termin „sistem za smanjenje rizika od katastrofa” koji podrazumeva dva podsistema: sistem upravljanja krizama i sistem zaštite i spasavanja, koji su rezultat najviših državnih strateških dokumenata i usvojenog zakonskog okvira. Smanjenje rizika od katastrofa podrazumeva sveobuhvatan koordiniran, multisektorski pristup, interdisciplinarnog karaktera, uključujući sve društvene subjekte (od građana do najsloženijih društvenih organizacija). Pretpostavka za postizanje ovog cilja podrazumeva realizaciju situacije koja bi bila najbliža željenoj u smislu procesa „upravljanja rizikom“. S druge strane, društveni način života u savremenom svetu podrazumeva svakodnevnu promenu načina života i posebno povećanje takozvanih „proizvedenih rizika“, koji su u osnovi rizici koji nastaju načinom na koji ljudi žive. Da bi u punom kapacitetu ostvarila navedene ciljeve, Severna Makedonija ima pred sobom mnogo zadataka i izazova. Naime, upravljanje rizikom treba sveukupno da doprinese povećanju otpornosti društva, što u najjednostavnijem smislu reči treba da obezbedi maksimalnu predvidljivost rizika i pretnji, njihovo sprečavanje ili rukovanje na način koji će izazvati najmanje posledice, obezbeđujući normalan i uobičajen način života građana. Предметот на интерес во овој труд е приказ и елаборација на системот за намалување ризици од катастрофи во Северна Македонија, преку анализа на стратешката и правната рамка, воспоставената национална платформа и институциите кои влегуваат во негов состав, како и нивните надлежности. Во трудот се користи терминот „систем за намалување ризици од катастрофи“, подразбирајќи притоа два потсистеми: систем за управување со кризи и систем за заштита и спасување, кои се резултат на највисоките државни стратешки документи и усвоената законска рамка. Намалувањето на ризиците од катастрофи подразбира севкупен координиран, мултисекторски пристап, интердисциплинарен по својата природа, вклучувајќи ги сите општествени субјекти (од граѓаните до најсложените општествени организации). Претпоставката за постигнување на оваа цел подразбира остварување на состојба која би била најблиску до посакуваната во однос на процесот на „управување со ризиците“. Од друга страна, општествениот начин на живот во современиот свет подразбира секојдневна промена на начинот на живот и особено зголемување на таканаречените „произведени ризици“, кои во основа се ризици кои се создаваат од начинот на живеење на луѓето. За да се остварат во полн капацитет наведените цели, Северна Македонија има пред себе многу задачи и предизвици. Имено, управувањето со ризиците треба севкупно да придонесе кон зголемување на отпорноста на општеството, што во наједноставна смисла на зборот треба да обезбеди максимална предвидливост на ризиците и заканите, нивно спречување или справување на начин кој ќе предизвика најмалку последици обезбедувајќи нормален и вообичаен начин на живот на граѓаните.
Reference – Ivanov, A, Babanoski, K., Cvetković, V.M. (2023). Disaster Risk Reduction System in the Republic of North Macedonia, Bezbednost.
The Predictive Model of Citizens’ Attitudes About the Risks of Introducing the Death Penalty in the Legal System: A Case Study of Serbia
This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the predictive model of citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the Republic of Serbia legal system. The research was conducted with the use of a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online from 427 people in June 2021. A multivariate regression analysis was used, identifying the extent to total scores of the main dependent variables (introducing the death penalty; trust in the legal system; advantages of introduction; disadvantages of introduction scores) were associated with five demographic and socioeconomic variables: gender, marital, education, income, and age. We tested the central hypothesis of which gender is predicting variables citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system of Serbia. The findings revealed that gender and educational level were the most effective predictors of the research variables under question. The majority of respondents support the introduction of the death penalty and the most important predictor of disadvantages of introducing the death penalty in the legal system is age. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the citizens’ attitudes about the risks of introducing the death penalty in the legal system, policies, strategies, and regulations must take into account these very important findings.
Reference – Cvetković, V.M.; Bugarski, T.; Ristivojević, B.; Milošević, G.; Martinović, J. The Predictive Model of Citizens’ Attitudes About the Risks of Introducing the Death Penalty in the Legal System: A Case Study of Serbia. Preprints 2021, 2021080524 (doi:10.20944/preprints202108.0524.v1).
Rad u tematskom zborniku vodećeg međunarodnog značaja
Capacity Building in Serbia for Disaster and Climate Risk Education
Abstract: The territory of the Republic of Serbia is exposed to various natural and technical-technological hazards that increasingly endanger people and their material goods. An integrated disaster risk management system (preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery) has not yet taken root in Serbia to a sufficient extent, although there are certain institutional and legal prerequisites for its smooth functioning. Abandoning the reactive way of preparing for disasters and increasingly implementing proactive measures, societies are desperately trying to improve their resilience in resource-scarce situations and mitigate future consequences of disasters. In Serbia, there is insufficient resistance to disasters, reflected in the insufficiently improved ability of Serbian society exposed to dangers to respond to them and recover from the consequences of disasters promptly and efficiently. Despite this, many efforts are in vain, considering that the population’s awareness of various aspects of disaster management remains very low. The aim of this chapter refers to the comprehensive analysis and description of capacity building in Serbia for Disaster and Climate Risk Education. The undoubted importance of education in the field of disasters, which is increasingly receiving priority positions on various agendas around the world, emphasizes the necessity of continuous research on the perspectives of formal and informal education on disasters. One of the most effective tools used in all areas of integrated disaster risk management is education. Admittedly, it should be borne in mind that education is a complex and interactive psychological process in which the transfer of knowledge from different fields is carried out in a planned and grounded manner in the form of a kind of transfer.
Conclusion: The role of schools in reducing the risk of disasters is an unavoidable topic in all world agendas where innovative solutions for mitigating the consequences of disasters are discussed. Today, it has become unthinkable to discuss structural disaster risk reduction measures without referring to the importance of education in that process. Unfortunately, in Serbia, little attention is paid to educating citizens about disaster risk reduction, which could be the result of mistaken beliefs that it is one of the marginal topics in the disaster risk management process itself. Although calls for the introduction of the subject safety culture in schools could be heard in several places, the decision-makers explicitly refuse to include such a subject in primary and secondary schools in Serbia. The reasons for such decisions can be found in insufficient knowledge of the area of risk reduction and not giving adequate importance to such non-structural measures of risk reduction. Unfortunately, there is still no sufficient consensus in Serbia regarding the necessity and importance of introducing the subject of security culture. One gets the impression that all other content is prioritized more than security content. The reason for such a situation can also be found in the fact that there is still a socialist view of security, according to which citizens should not take measures, but the competent state authorities, such as the police, fire-rescue units, emergency medical services, etc. However, practice shows that the largest number of people were saved by neighbours or other friends who happened to be nearby at the time when the harmful effects of disasters, such as shock and heat waves, radioactive radiation, biological contamination, etc., were manifested. Also, one of the famous examples of the power of knowledge in the field of disaster studies is the girl Tilly Smith, who saved her peers on the shores of the Indian Ocean when she warned them that the retreat of water towards the centre of the ocean meant that a tsunami would occur. She then warned the teacher who started the evacuation of the children who survived, thanks to that. Regardless of all that, it is necessary to continue improving theoretical knowledge and implementing practical training in Serbia. Certainly, in future planning documents, it is very important to highlight the importance of education in the field of disaster studies and to further develop all possible ways of its realization. In addition, it is important to improve curricula and programs in the field of emergency situationsemergencies. In order toTo achieve this, it is recommended to introduce the subject safety culture in primary and secondary schools. The significance of this chapter paper lies in shedding light on the critical role of schools in disaster risk reduction, a topic of undeniable importance in global discussions on innovative strategies to mitigate the aftermath of disasters. The text emphasizes that contemporary deliberations on structural measures for disaster risk reduction are incomplete without acknowledging the pivotal role of education in this process. The paper underscores a concerning trend in Serbia, where minimal attention is directed towards educating citizens about disaster risk reduction. This negligence may stem from misconceptions that view it as a peripheral aspect within the broader disaster risk management framework. Despite calls for the inclusion of a safety culture subject in schools, decision-makers in Serbia resist its incorporation into primary and secondary education, citing insufficient knowledge of risk reduction and a lack of recognition for non-structural risk reduction measures. The text identifies a potential reason for this situation in the lingering socialist perspective that advocates citizens should not take individual measures but rely on competent state authorities. However, practical examples reveal that, in reality, community members, such as neighbors neighbours and friends, play a crucial role in saving lives during disasters.
Highlighting the power of knowledge in disaster studies, the text references the inspiring case of Tilly Smith, who, armed with her understanding, saved her peers from a tsunami. Despite such examples, the need for continuous improvement in theoretical knowledge and practical training in Serbia is emphasized. The paper advocates for future planning documents to underscore the importance of education in disaster studies, urging the development of various avenues for its implementation. Furthermore, it stresses the need to enhance curricula and programs related to emergency situationsemergencies, recommending the introduction of a safety culture subject in primary and secondary schools. In essence, the paper calls for a paradigm shift in Serbia towards recognizing the central role of education in fostering resilience and preparedness in the face of disasters.
The integration of disaster and climate risk education into educational curricula is crucial. It is recommended to incorporate specific modules on disasters and climate risks into relevant academic programs across all levels of education. This integration could span subjects such as geography, biology, chemistry, and other natural and social sciences. Empowering educators is essential for effective implementation. Regular training sessions and seminars should be organized to enhance teachers’ understanding and delivery of content related to disasters and climate risks. Additionally, specific courses or certification programs focusing on this area should be developed for teachers. Active community involvement is key. Schools and educational institutions should actively engage local communities in disaster education programs. Workshops, lectures, or simulations could be organized to raise awareness about natural risks and disaster preparedness among the local population. Leveraging modern technologies is imperative. The introduction of technological resources, such as interactive guides, simulations, and online courses, can enhance disaster and climate risk education. Developing applications or platforms that facilitate access to information on climate risks and provide guidance on appropriate actions is recommended. Establishing partnerships with governmental bodies, non-governmental organizations, and international collaborators will facilitate the sharing of best practices and resources. Building a network that supports ongoing education on disasters and climate risks is critical. Enhancing capacity in disaster and climate risk education in Serbia is vital for constructing a resilient society. The holistic approach involves integrating this field into the educational system, empowering educators, actively engaging local communities, and leveraging modern technologies. These initiatives not only prepare citizens at all levels for the challenges associated with disasters and climate change but also contribute to overall societal security and sustainability. Collaboration with relevant partners and continuous monitoring and adaptation of these initiatives will further strengthen national capacities in this critical area.
Reference – Cvetković, V. & Šišović, V. (2023). Capacity building in Serbia for disaster and climate risk education. In Disaster and Climate Risk Education Insights from Knowledge to Action.
The NATO expansion in Europe – alliance of liberal states
Alliances are well-known in world history. In the framework of international relations, several theoretical explanations are applied to answer the questions of why and how states enter into alliances. The traditional approach explains the alliance through the assumptions of the theory of balance of power. Game theory is also a theoretical approach to analyze the behavior of states used in academic and strategic analysis. In this paper, the basic assumption about the behavior of the states of the collective West is the theory of balance of threat. In the geographical sense, the subject of analysis is Eastern and South-Eastern Europe as a response to the behavior of the states. When faced with a significant external threat, states can balance or join. Balancing is defined as an alliance with other states against a current threat; the association is brought to the association with the source of danger. This theory is presented through an analysis of state decisions on critical issues in international security depending on whether states balance or join by Stephen Walt, systematically exposed in the capital work “The Origin of Alliances“. In this paper, the subject of analysis is the expansion of the NATO pact after the end of the Cold War, trying to give possible answers to the question of why the countries of Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe “joined” this military alliance after the fall of the “Iron Curtain”.
Conclusion: The expansion of NATO helps maintain its vital traditional role as a defensive pact by strengthening the military capabilities of the member states, aiming to deter Russia. Russia is responding with the deployment of weapons on its western borders as well as in Belarus, its closest ally. Knowing that nuclear war cannot be won, it is unclear what this deterrence is directed towards. The world relies on the moral law that binds humanity to be human. The fact that the collective West stands united at the front shows that moral virtue is on the side of the West. The remaining question is whether we can have European security without Russia and whether Russia can develop itself without the collective West. At the time of its disintegration at the end of 1991, the Soviet Union was the contemporary manifestation of a state entity that, for the most part, had existed in its current form for some 200 years; an entity that, within the living memory of the last Tsar, had been successfully defended against foreign invasion at a very great cost. As McGwire noted, the most striking part of the dissolution of the Soviet Union was the peaceful nature of the process. As noted by strategists, Belarus and Ukraine provided defense in depth. Moscow is now within 250 miles of its country’s western border, while the territories on its southern flanks have been opened to hostile reinforcement by sea. So, is Ukraine the last straw for Russia, and what is the path to peace? The brief period when Finland and Sweden were neutral, along with the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, and former Yugoslavia forming a neutral band stretching across Europe from the Arctic to the Black Sea, is no longer a possibility. The Western Balkan security environment reflects European, and perhaps even Eurasian security, extending to global security if we consider the current NATO-Russia position. The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus is obviously a response to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The fact that for the world’s two biggest nuclear superpowers, the only valid treaty is New START, which expires on February 4th, 2026 (U.S. Department of State, 2023), is not good news. It also has global consequences for international security. We have a war happening in Europe, and the world is feeling the consequences as before.
Reference – Ivanov, A., Babanoski, K., & Cvetković, V. (2023). The NATO expansion in Europe – alliance of liberal states. International scientific conference, Macedonia. 14th International Scientific Conference, the strategic and security concept for the countries of South-East Europe At: Republic of North Macedonia.
The role of the police of Montenegro in combating fan hooliganism
Abstract: In recent years, hooligan incidents in Montenegro have become more frequent and violent. Hooliganism at sports events is becoming recognized as a serious problem by citizens, legislators, and other state institutions. Violence at sports events in Montenegro exists, but it still does not represent a major security problem. States deal with this security problem in different ways, primarily by passing appropriate regulations, but in solving this problem in all states, the police seem to play a primary role. In recent years, we have witnessed a proactive approach by the police to this problem. This is precisely where the lack of the Montenegrin police, which has good police units that act repressively on hooligan outbursts, can be seen. However, the Montenegrin police do not have narrowly specialized units dealing exclusively with this problem, which will collect and exchange information about hooligans, as well as the National Office for the Exchange of Information on the Security of Football Competitions (NFIP), which is a prerequisite for the establishment and successful international cooperation in this field. field. The research presented and analyzed statistical data in the period 2018-2021. year, which refers to the actions of the Montenegrin police during the security of public gatherings, especially sports events. Based on them, it can be concluded that the Montenegrin police play a significant role in opposing fan hooliganism. Members of the police in Montenegro are adequately prepared to counter fan hooliganism, as far as repressive actions are concerned. All of the above instils confidence in citizens that the police of Montenegro will succeed, together with other state bodies, in adequately opposing fan hooliganism.
Conclusion: In recent years, hooligan incidents in Montenegro have become more frequent and violent. Hooliganism at sports events is becoming recognized as a serious problem by citizens, legislators, and other state institutions. Violence at sports events in Montenegro exists, but it still does not represent a major security problem, and in order for it not to become one, adequate measures must be taken. The conducted research indicated that it is necessary for members of the police to pay extra attention to ultras hooligan groups, which have been identified on the territory of Montenegro. These groups are characterized not only by violent incidents, especially towards the police but also by their connection with politics and crime. When we talk about the connection between fan groups and organized crime, so far there has not been enough data to really confirm that connection. In recent years, we have witnessed a proactive approach by the police to this problem. It is based on a continuous flow of accurate and timely information that allows the police to maintain control over fan behavior and prevent unwanted consequences. This is precisely where the lack of Montenegrin police can be seen. The Montenegrin police have good police units that act repressively when there are hooligan outbursts, however, there is no narrowly specialized unit that deals exclusively with this problem, which will collect and exchange information about hooligans. International police cooperation is also part of the proactive approach. A prerequisite for the establishment and successful development is the establishment of the National Offices for the Exchange of Information on the Security of Football Competitions (NFIP), which Montenegro has not yet established. In the end, we can conclude that the police of Montenegro play a significant role in opposing fan hooliganism. Members of the police are adequately prepared to oppose fan hooliganism, as far as repressive actions are concerned. In the research itself, a large number of units dealing with this topic were presented, whose members completed a large number of trainings, courses and seminars. Also, from year to year, the results of police work in this matter have been evaluated positively by the MUP of Montenegro. All of the above instills confidence, both in citizens and fans, that in the future the police will adequately respond to upcoming challenges related to fan hooliganism.
Reference – Janković, B., Cvetković, V., Ivanov, A. (2023). The role of the police of Montenegro in combating fan hooliganism. International scientific conference, Macedonia… International scientific conference, Macedonia. International scientific conference, Macedonia. 14th International Scientific Conference, the strategic and security concept for the countries of South-East Europe At Republic of North Macedonia.
Harmonizing wildfires risk assessment in Western Balkans through the IPAFF project
Wildfires risk assessment plays a key role in each phase of the wildfire cycle, enabling the shift from fire suppression to prevention activities while improving decisions for response and restoration activities. Moreover, it enables synergies between fire and landscape management for achieving an integrated fire management approach. Because wildfires’ complexity depends on different meteo-climatic, physics and human aspects, wildfire risk assessment and mapping still lack a consolidated science-based methodology as it is for other natural hazards. Such a gap limits its adoption across all different authorities involved in wildfire management, for local, national and regional governments. Moreover, it affects the capacity to properly handle transboundary aspects, considering that wildfires are not limited by national borders. The IPAFF project proposes an approach to develop a common methodology, starting from evaluating wildfires risk assessment capacities in Western Balkans and Turkey. Leveraging the European guidelines on risk assessment and tightening the focus on wildland fires, the analysis assesses capacities considering the following aspects: i) the legal and institutional framework shaping roles and responsibilities of authorities for fire and landscape management at different governmental levels; ii) coordination mechanisms and procedures; iii) data, methods, and tools; iv) mobilization of technical and managerial expertise. Each aspect is broken down into diverse criteria ranked through qualitative structured interviews addressed to a panel of key stakeholders and decision-makers in each country, identifying weaknesses and threats to be handled for developing and implementing wildfire risk assessment. Results are elaborated in the formulation of a regional technical guideline, consolidated through focus groups, calibrating and harmonizing the guideline’s content, considering the results of the capability assessment conducted in each country. The set of recommendations for elaborating the guideline, will contribute in developing a common regional approach for wildfire risk mapping in Western Balkans and Turkey, considering EU and international standards.
Reference – Fiorucci, P., Pernice, U., Cvetković, V. M., & Rajkovcevski, R. (2022). Harmonizing wildfires risk assessment in Western Balkans through the IPAFF project.
Social Resilience to Flood Disasters: Demographic, Socio-economic and Psychological Factors of Impact
Abstract: Starting from the increasingly frequent consequences of floods in local communities in Serbia, this paper aims to examine the level and impact of selected demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on the level of social resilience to flood disasters. The research was conducted using a provided questionnaire and then collected online for 261 respondents during August 2021. The research results show a statistically significant influence of gender, previous experience, social ties, trust in public institutions and involvement in risk communication processes on the level of social resilience to flooding disasters. In addition, research has found that strengthening social resilience requires strengthening social networking, trust and solidarity among members of the local community. The obtained research results can significantly help all stakeholders formulate strategies, plans, and initiatives to improve social resilience to the consequences of flood disasters and create preconditions for building a safe and sustainable environment.
Conclusion: The characteristics of floods affecting states and local communities worldwide require the joint efforts of both the competent state authorities and local communities in dealing with and responding to flood risk. It is necessary to develop civic awareness, knowledge, skills, and resources that will create the preconditions for building social resilience, one of the critical aspects of disaster risk management facing modern society. Local communities resistant to the consequences of flood disasters need to cooperate with emergency services, local authorities, and other relevant organizations before, during, and after emergencies. Resilient communities participate in decision-making related to emergency management, show interest in their environment, and act proactively to strengthen community resilience to flood disasters (Ntontis, Drury, Amlôt, Rubin & Williams, 2019). Statistical analysis of the survey of social resistance to floods within the local communities of the Republic of Serbia showed that age, experience, education, social ties, and trust in public institutions are key influencing factors that determine the level of social resilience to floods. The results indicate that it is necessary to introduce programs and training for dealing with emergencies caused by gender, both within all levels of education and among employees in all sectors. The goal of introducing the mentioned programs and training is to raise awareness about the risk and thus the resilience of local communities to the consequences of floods. According to McClymont et al. (2020), the so-called social resilience education is a crucial aspect of flood risk reduction in a flood risk environment that identifies the knowledge, skills, values, and preparedness needed to manage flood risk and improve social resilience to floods effectively. Respondents also confirmed that strengthening social resilience requires strengthening social networking, trust, and solidarity among members of the local community. These aspects of social resilience can be encouraged through various initiatives and associations of citizens whose activities would assist in emergencies, significantly contributing to the development of knowledge, experience, and exchange of information necessary for reducing flood risks. Accumulation of social capital through community participation through reliable networks can provide the required external factors that will influence individual decision-making, increasing the motivation of residents to prepare for the adverse effects of climate change (Lo & Chan, 2017). The survey of respondents found that their participation in monitoring and communication on risk can significantly strengthen citizens’ trust in decision-makers and services responsible for dealing with emergencies. Communication networks in the form of public debates, media, personal interactions with other people, and the very types of social ties enable the creation of social capital through which awareness and knowledge necessary to develop an appropriate level of risk perception can be formed (Lechowska, 2018). The research results indicate that the subject of research is an inexhaustible source of foundation for future research aimed at examining the factors that determine social resilience to the consequences of floods. The obtained results can significantly help local authorities, citizens’ associations, and stakeholders in formulating strategies, plans, and initiatives that will improve social resilience to the consequences of floods and create preconditions for building a safe and sustainable environment. An obvious limitation of the research is the insufficient number of respondents in the broader area of the Republic of Serbia, which would provide a complete picture of the current level of social resilience to the consequences of floods and the interdependence of the examined factors.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Ivković, T. (2022). Social Resilience to Flood Disasters: Demographic, Socio-economic and Psychological Factors of Impact”. 12th International Conference of the International Society for the Integrated Disaster Risk Management, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, 21-23 September 2022. Hosted by Babeș-Bolyai University of Cluj-Napoca (Romania), Research Institute for Sustainability and Disaster Management based on High Performance Computing and Faculty of Environmental Science and Engineering.
Resilience of society in disasters caused by nuclear accidents
Abstract: Keeping in mind that Serbia does not have a nuclear power plant and that there are justified reasons to introduce nuclear energy, it is necessary to examine citizens’ level of information and preparedness for such disasters, i.e. the possibility of coping with a specific nuclear accident. Also, several nuclear power plants are in operation near Serbia, so caution and sufficient knowledge should be kept in mind and prevention measures would be implemented in this type of disaster. The research subject is the study of risk perception and preparedness for potential nuclear accidents. The research was conducted on the territory of Belgrade using multi-stage random sampling with 256 respondents. The research results indicate a severe need to inform and educate citizens about risk management in disasters caused by nuclear accidents in Serbia, bearing in mind that the results showed that preparedness is not at a significant level. Based on the research results, preconditions are created to create appropriate strategies, programs, and campaigns that would greatly help improve the awareness and knowledge of citizens about the correct and safe way to react in such situations.
Conclusion: The research contributes significantly to this scientific field, considering the smaller number of such studies in Serbia. It is essential to keep in mind that the research was conducted on the territory of Belgrade, where nuclear energy is not currently used. Still, in relatively recent history, there was a situation when the Republic of Serbia was exposed to the consequences of a nuclear disaster indirectly. Also, several nuclear power plants are operating near the country, so caution and sufficient knowledge should be kept in mind and prevention measures should be implemented in this type of disaster. Based on that, there was a need to examine the social strata on efforts to respond to, prevent and inform about the dangers of nuclear disasters. The research part first aimed to investigate how many people think they are ready and told about reacting to situations caused by nuclear disasters, i.e. whether they consider themselves sufficiently trained and whether they perceive the danger of given conditions. As already mentioned in the last part of the paper, it turns out that the respondents feel that they are not ready enough to react in these situations and that they express a desire and need to be further educated on this issue. Then, it is essential to know that a large percentage of respondents are willing to respect the measures taken by the state in the event of an outbreak of this unforeseen situation and to agree or fully agree with the view that they trust the authorities and institutions to respond to dangers nuclear disasters adequately. They are also ready for possible evacuation and assistance in the form of volunteering in the event of a nuclear disaster. This research could further support similar topics to improve nuclear disaster risk management practices. Then, there is space and possibility to expand the scope of this research and obtain even more detailed results and data on information and training of the population on the consequences of nuclear disasters and ways to better protect themselves from them. It is essential to know at least basic knowledge, protection and prevention measures in responding to technical and technological disasters, bearing in mind that they are not uncommon and that the consequences can indeed be devastating. In addition, as the need of the respondents to receive additional education was noticed, it is not out of place to use this mood regarding the culture of nuclear protection and safety. When it comes to the limitations and difficulties of this research, the fact is that the research was conducted in the territory of the city of Belgrade and not in the territory of the Republic of Serbia as a whole.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Rikanović, S., Knežević, S. (2022). Resilience of society in disasters caused by nuclear accidents. IAI Academic Conference Proceedings, Budapest Conference, 5 May 2022.
Innovative solutions for disaster early warning and alert systems: a literary review
In different parts of the world, decision-makers and risk managers use specific and particularly complex disaster early warning and alert systems to protect people and their material goods from the harmful effects of various disasters in a timely, efficient and appropriate manner. However, concerning the level of scientific-technological and economic development of certain countries, such systems can differ in the many characteristics that make them more efficient in specific situations. Guided by this, the subject of the paper is reflected in the systematic identification, analysis, and classification of the best innovative solutions of early warning systems in regard to their usability and efficiency. To find appropriate innovative solutions, it was performed a search of different electronic databases. The findings of this review showed that there is a huge potential for innovative solutions in the field of disaster early warning and alert systems.
Conclusion: By identifying different models for early warning systems, the preconditions are created for the development of a comprehensive model that will enhance all the advantages and minimize all the observed disadvantages. Early warning systems and the technology and instruments which enable them to operate best if they are incorporated into the society in which they live, comprehensible, and relevant. To improve these systems, serious political commitment and institutional support are needed for the
implementation of innovative solutions and the implementation of further scientific research with the aim of their comprehensive development. In many countries, different systems are used to warn the public of natural hazards and they differ significantly in the degree of their scientific and technological basis and functionality. It is necessary to improve the infrastructure of such systems, raise the level of awareness of the population about the ways of reacting and encourage the implementation of scientific research to develop innovative solutions.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2021). Innovative solutions for disaster early warning and alert systems: a literary review. Eleven International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days” , Belgrade, November 9–10, Belgrade, University of Criminal Investigation and Police Studies.
The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction
As of recently, the role of social networks in the disaster risk management process has become significantly important. This is largely due to a huge number of smartphones with installed applications (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) that allow their users to share information in the form of text, images and video. By analyzing and describing the multiple possibilities and significance of social networks in various stages of disaster risk management (before, during and after), the authors conducted a research of quantitative research tradition with the aim of examining the attitudes of the students of the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies and the Faculty of Security Studies University of Belgrade in terms of possibilities, reliability and motivation for the use of social networks in such situations. The results obtained in the research show a high degree of motivation of respondents for the use of social networks in situations immediately before, but also during and after the manifested consequences of disasters. Emphasizing the undeniable advantages of using the social networks in disaster risk management, as well as the results of the research, decision-makers could create certain programs to improve citizen security and reduce disaster risks by using information platforms of the social networks such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram.
Conclusion: Based on the fact that a large number of people use some of the existing social networks, decision-makers, as well as emergency response officers, should pay much more attention to their use in reducing disaster risk. They can be ideal for raising awareness of citizens about the existing dangers which surround them, as well as for educating them on preventive measures in order to mitigate or eliminate the consequences of such events. Social networks can play a key role in informing citizens, gathering help for affected people, and gathering people to help vulnerable ones. Certainly, the use of social networks can have serious negative consequences, such as spreading misinformation, raising an unnecessary level of fear, etc. Regarding preventive activities, social networks can disseminate all information on disaster hazard characteristics at the local level. It is possible to introduce citizens to risk maps in the areas they live in. In addition, it is possible to develop interactive online campaigns to improve the readiness of citizens to respond in such situations. On that occasion, it is possible to use educational videos, photos, and text in the context of the hazards characteristic of the area in which people live. In addition to preventive activities, social networks can be very helpful in responding to and eliminating the consequences of the events that have occurred. Endangered people can photograph and record a large number of details important for making final decisions about the actions of members of the emergency rescue services. The results of the research showed a great interest among the respondents in using social networks to share information about disasters. Numerous factors influence the motivation of people to share information during disasters, and one of them is certainly concern for the safety of other people. After disasters, social networks can greatly facilitate the setting of priorities for the distribution of food and water. Surely, in order to exploit the full potential of social networks, it is also necessary to educate citizens on how they can help emergency rescue services in the implementation of activities aimed at reducing disaster risk. Relevant strategies, both national and local, should take into consideration the potential of social networks for reducing the risk of disasters. It is necessary to continue with the implementation of the research to clarify as much as possible doubts about the importance of social networks in the process of disaster management.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., Dragićević, S., & Novković, I. (2018). The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction. Eight International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days” , Belgrade, October 2–3, 2018.
Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters caused by floods
Abstract: In this paper that presents the quantitative study, authors examined the influence of parenthood on the citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, 19 of these were randomly selected. In selected municipalities the research was undertaken in those areas and households that have been or are potentially the most vulnerable in relation to the level of high water with the use of a multi-stage random sample. In the research it was applied test method based on the technique of interviewing. The research results indicate that heavy rains encourage parents in higher percents to think about preparedness for responding in relation to citizens who are not parents. Parents to a greater extent as the reasons for not taking preventive measures point out that their assistance in this matter would not mean much, that they expected that in actions of protection and rescue primarily would be engaged citizens from flood-affected areas, then they know the safety procedures for response and they would be to a greater extent evacuated in friends’ places, etc. In domestic theory on disasters, there has been an insufficient number of experimental researches, while at the same there are no papers on the relationship between parenting and the preparedness of citizens to respond. Thus, the practical aim of the research was to contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by floods. Namely, the research indicates the way how should influence on parents in order to raise preparedness for response to a higher level.
Conclusion: Parents to a higher percentage/greater extent about non-parents think about preparedness to respond due to heavy rains. They point out the following reasons for not taking action on preparedness: “My help would not mean much” and “I expected the citizens from flood-affected areas would be primarily engaged.” They are familiar with safety procedures, they would evacuate to a friend’s place, they point out that someone at work talked about the floods; they know where elders, disabled, and infants live in the community; they know what help is needed by elders, disabled, and infants; they know what they should do after official warnings about the approach of the flood; they are familiar with viruses and infections that accompany the period after the flood; they know where the water valve, gas valve, and electricity switch are; they know how to handle the water and gas valve, electricity switch; they say that they got the information about the floods at work, on the radio; they would like to be educated about the floods on television; they scored a level of assessment of risk from flooding in the local community in the next year and five years and higher familiarity with the responsibilities of first responders in natural disasters caused by flooding; they have food and water supplies for four days; they never replenish supplies they have; they have copies of important financial, personal and other documents and they have home insurance in case of a flood. On the other hand, the respondents who are not parents to a higher percentage/greater extent: would engage in assisting the victims in the field and in shelters, scored a rating level of individual preparedness and preparedness of households to respond. They point out the following reasons for not taking preventive measures on a personal plan: “I do not consider myself or my household at risk of flooding” and “I have no support from the local community”; they expect help from non-governmental humanitarian organizations in the first 72 hours after the occurrence of a flood; they would evacuate to shelters during the floods and rented apartments; they believe their neighbors can rescue themselves in the event of floods; they say they got the information on floods from family members, friends, at school, at college, through the informal education system, through the Internet; they would like to be educated through video games, scored a level of familiarity with the nearby shelters; they possess: supplies at home, food supplies for two days, water supply for one day and two days; they replenish supplies once a month and once a year.
Reference – Cvetković, M. V., Ivanov, A., & Milojković, B. (2016). Influence of parenthood on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by floods. VI International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance, Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies godine.
Police Deployment in Emergency Situations Caused by the Abuse of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Abstract: In their line of work police officers face a large number of emergencies and incidents related to hazardous materials that can be abused as the weapons of mass destruction. Deployment of police officers in cases of terrorist attacks has its specific features, since it is carried out in extreme circumstances with outstanding dangers to life and health. Apart from the emergency medical service and fire and rescue units, the police have a decisive role in the elimination of consequences of such incidents. In these emergency situations, police staff offers primarily assistance to the injured persons, prevents the expansion and elimination of consequences of the emergency situation, and pays considerable attention to the criminal processing of the scene of the incident. Apart from giving the overview of police officers deployment in priority tasks, this paper also gives a comprehensive review of their position in the emergency management system, where the emergency situation has been caused by the abuse of this destructive weapon.
Conclusion: Readiness and preparedness of police officers for reaction to terrorist attacks will be put to the test many times in the forthcoming period. The future brings bigger challenges for police readiness and capability to combat these attacks properly. Conventional weapons easily give way to more lethal descendants. As the most important security service, police must be ready to respond to emergency situations brought about by the abuse of weapons of mass destruction. In order to fulfill all that is expected from it in such situations, police must have developed action procedures, trained staff, and appropriate equipment. Police officers must be trained for work in dangerous environments and understand well their own role at the scene of a terrorist incident. Each police officer has to be ready to identify the indicators of a terrorist attack so that he/she can undertake further operational-tactical measures and actions in an adequate manner. Authorities in charge of strategic planning of police activities should certainly recognize future security requirements and react timely and accordingly.
Reference – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2012). Police Deployment in Emergency Situations Caused by the Abuse of Weapons of Mass Destruction. International Scientific Conference “Archibald Reiss Days” , Belgrade, 1-2 march, 2012. godine.
Cooperation of South-East European countries in Emergency Situations
Emergencies do not recognize national borders and often acquire regional and global character. South-East European countries are permanently exposed to various emergency situations, such as earthquakes, floods, snow storms, droughts, forest fires etc. In certain cases, these countries are incapable of coping with catastrophic consequences of these emergencies with their own capacities, but are forced to seek help from their neighbours or international organizations. Possible means of help and cooperation demand internationally institutionalized, coordinated and adequate answer of available forces and means by all subjects of protection and rescue before, during and after the occurrences of emergency situations. In this respect, international-legal foundation of cooperation and offering help to the SouthEast European countries in cases of emergencies and operations of a humanitarian nature are first observed. After that, important international organizations and associations which, helped by legal platforms, realize different aspects of regional cooperation of South-East European countries at eliminating consequences of emergencies, as well as numerous regional initiatives and strategies for reduction and estimation risks from emergencies were analysed.
Conclusion: South-East European countries are increasingly facing ES that surpass their national borders or national capabilities of providing an adequate response. Therefore, cooperation of South-East European countries in averting catastrophic consequences of ES is significantly supported by different international organizations such as the UN, EU and NATO. Establishment of a solid international legal basis for providing coordinated assistance and cooperation in the countries affected by ES is contributed by a number of regional initiatives and strategies for risk reduction and risk assessment of ES signed by the majority of the countries of South East Europe.
The possibility of further improvement of cooperation among the countries of South East Europe in ES ranges from its greater institutionalization of international legal and the domestic legal harmonization of the issues in question, then, consistent implementation of the signed regional initiatives and strategies, especially in strengthening their own capacities (strengthening community, trust and information among the executive power, equity holders, citizens and other entities in the system of protection and rescue) and strengthening joint regional capacity (preparation and exchange of experts, joint training of police, military and civil emergency and rescue services – e.g. “Danube Guard” exercise, unifying own and donated financial, material and technical resources, establishment of regional centres for training and humanitarian assistance – e.g. Russo-Serbian humanitarian centre in Nis, greater involvement of non-governmental organizations, etc.), up to improving systems for early warning, information, communication and decision support in ES, and establishing urban and market mechanisms such as stricter procedures for obtaining building permits and more expensive insurance for building at risky locations.
Reference – Mlađan, D., Milojković, B., Baras, I., Cvetković, V. (2013). Cooperation of South-East European countries in Emergency Situations. International Scientific Conference, The Balkans between Past and Future: Security, Conflict Resolution and Euro-Atlantic Integration, 05-08 June 2013, Ohrid, 279-291
Household supplies for a natural disaster: factor of influence on the possession of supplies
The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of certain factors on household possession of supplies necessary for the survival of the consequences of natural disasters. Design/methodology/approach – Quantitative research was conducted by using a survey strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The first step, which was related to the primary sampling units included selection of parts of the community for conducting research. The second step, which was related to research cores, included selection of streets or parts of streets at the level of primary sampling units and finally selection of households for surveying 2500 citizens in 19 local communities. Findings – It was found that only 24.6% of respondents have supplies, while 61.5% have no supplies for surviving natural disasters. On the other hand, 37.2% of respondents possess supplies of food for 4 days, while only 12% have supplies of food for 1 day. It was found that 17.6% of the respondents have a transistor radio, 40% flashlight, 40.6% shovel, 25.8% hack, 33.6% hoe and spade, and 13.2% Fire extinguisher. The results of inferential statistical analyses show that there is a statistically significant influence of gender, education, marital status, parenthood, employment, income level, level of religiosity, completed military service on having supplies to survive the consequences of natural disasters. On the other hand, there was no influence of previous experiences on having supplies. Originality/value – research results allow the design of strategies aimed at raising the level of preparedness of households with regard to their supplies for natural disasters.
Conclusion: In the quantitative research covering enough households for natural disasters, we have come to diverse conclusions. Of the total number of respondents, only 24.6% have supplies, which is a serious security problem. In addition, 17.6% of the respondents have a transistor radio, 40% a flashlight, 40.6% a shovel, 25.8% a hack, 33.6% a hoe and spade, and 13.2% a fire extinguisher. Furthermore, 37.2% of the respondents have food supplies for four days, while only 12% of the citizens have food supplies for one day. The possession of supplies to survive the consequences of natural disasters is significantly influenced by gender, education level, marital status, parental status, employment, income level, and level of religiosity. There is no statistically significant influence of previous experience on the possession of supplies. In a higher percentage, supplies for natural disasters are owned by men, citizens who have completed postgraduate studies, respondents who are engaged, respondents who are not parents, employees, respondents with income over RSD 76,000, and believers in a certain sense. On the other hand, in a smaller percentage, supplies for natural disasters are owned by female respondents, who are widows/widowers, parents, unemployed respondents, respondents with incomes up to RSD 75,000 and higher education, and non-believers in a certain sense. The possession of a transistor radio is statistically significantly influenced by gender, education level, marital status, parental status, income level, and level of religiosity. On the other hand, employment has no influence. The possession of a flashlight is statistically significantly influenced by the level of education, parental status, income level, and level of religiosity, while it is not influenced by gender, marital status, and employment. On the other hand, the level of education, parental status, employment, income level, and level of religiosity significantly affect the possession of a fire extinguisher, while it is not affected by gender and marital status. Men have a transistor radio in a higher percentage compared to women. Divorced people have a transistor radio in the highest percentage, while the engaged have it in the lowest percentage. The respondents who completed postgraduate studies had a transistor radio, a flashlight, and a fire extinguisher in the highest percentage. The citizens who have completed their postgraduate studies have fire extinguishers in the highest percentage, while the respondents with elementary school have these in the smallest percentage. Recommendations for improvement of the possession of supplies: Starting from the concluding remarks, it is necessary to conceive a strategy, programs, and campaigns aimed at improving citizens’ preparedness for natural disasters in the context of compiling supplies necessary for survival of the consequences. As part of those activities, it is necessary to focus on the female population, citizens who are widows/widowers, parents, the unemployed, those with income up to RSD 75,000, with a degree in higher education, and those citizens who are non-believers in a certain sense.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2017). Household supplies for a natural disaster: factor of influence on the possession of supplies. The 8th International Scientific Conference – Security concepts and policies – new generation of risks and threats, at Ohrid, Republic of Macedonia 4 – 5 June 2017.
Informisanje građana o vanrednim situacijama: činioci uticaja i modaliteti (Informing of citizens about emergency situations: influence factors and modalities)
The goal of quantitative research is a scientific explication of the influence of certain factors on the modalities of informing citizens about emergency situations. Special attention was paid to examining the influence of the following factors on information: gender, age, education, marital status, employment, and parenting status, risk perception, and previous experience. The research was conducted in 2015, and 2500 citizens in 19 local communities in Serbia were surveyed by multi-stage random sampling. The obtained results of descriptive statistical analyzes show that most citizens were informed about emergency situations through television 58.9%, then through the press, 31.7%, household members 31.2%, internet 28.7%, radio shows 15.7%, at school 14.3% and finally within the family 12%. The results of inferential statistical analyses show a statistically significant correlation between the way of informing through television with gender, marital status, and employment status. On the other hand, informing through radio shows is related to education and previous experience. Gender, education, and marital status have a statistically significant impact on informing citizens through the press and the Internet. Examining the modalities of informing citizens about emergency situations is of great scientific and social importance. The obtained research results can greatly influence the determination of the most adequate way of informing certain categories of citizens. The originality of the research is reflected in the unexamined state and modalities of the most optimal informing of citizens about emergency situations in Serbia. Keywords: security, emergency situations, information, factors, citizens. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja određenih činioca na modalitete informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama. Posebna pažnja je bila usmerena ka ispitivanju uticaja sledećih činioca na informisanje: pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, bračni status, status zaposlenosti i roditeljstva, percepcija rizika i prethodno iskustvo. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Dobijeni rezultati deskriptivnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da je najviše građana o vanrednim situacijama informisano preko televizije 58,9%, zatim preko štampe 31,7%, ukućana 31,2%, interneta 28,7%, radio emisija 15,7%, u školi 14,3% i u na kraju u okviru porodice 12%. Rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost načina informisanja preko televizija sa polom, bračnim statusom i statusom zaposlenosti. Sa druge strane, način informisanja preko radio emisija je povezan sa obrazovanjem i prethodnim iskustvom. Na informisanje građana preko štampe i interneta statistički značajno utiču pol, obrazovanje i bračni status. Ispitivanje modaliteta informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama ima veliki naučni i društveni značaj. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja u velikoj meri mogu uticati na opredeljenje izbora najadekvatnijeg načina informisanja pojedinih kategorija građana. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u neispitanom stanju i modalitetima najoptimalnijeg informisanja građana o vanrednim situacijama u Srbiji. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, informisanje, činioci, građani.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Informing of citizens about emergency situations: influence factors and modalities. Paper presented at the 10th International Conference – Crisis management days: Security environment and challenges of crisis management, 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.
Knowledge and perceptions of students of the Academy of Criminalistic and police studies about natural disasters
Abstract: The subject of quantitative research is an analysis of the factors influencing the knowledge and perceptions of first year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies about natural disasters. The authors used the survey method to identify and describe the factors that influence the knowledge and perceptions of students about natural disasters. Of the total number of first-year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies, 360 of them were examined. The results show that respondents have a high level of knowledge of natural disasters and the best knowledge of safety procedures when handling droughts. The limitation of research relates to the fact that the research is based only on the first-year students of the Academy of Criminalistics and Police studies. Considering the evident lack of education on natural disasters in Serbia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. The research results can be used for the improvement of existing knowledge and preparedness for responding to natural disasters.
Conclusion: Experience has shown that access to high-quality educational programs about natural disasters is of crucial importance in protecting children and their families. It was also noted that instead of considering children and women as the most vulnerable categories (victims), they can be recognized as contributors to the recovery of the community, assuming that they have acquired solid knowledge on natural disasters and the elimination of their consequences. Education about the risk of natural disasters can be represented through special programs or through implementation into the basic curriculum. Furthermore, such education can be realized through curricular and extra-curricular activities (such as various workshops, games, etc.). Although the education of young people for the protection of life, health, and the environment has its roots in the family and pre-school education, the school is irreplaceable in achieving this goal. The school is obliged to develop the knowledge, awareness, and habits that prevent dangers. In fact, in its basic function, it has the task to enable humans, on the one hand, to rule over nature, and on the other, to protect against hazards that may befall them and against their human “nature” itself. It is important to have the awareness that we “cannot escape” from danger; they can only be prevented, that is, consequences can be prevented by knowledge, awareness, and education to the automatism of habits. In addition, education for active and passive protection of self and others, physical integrity, or natural properties and the environment, while creating habits and feelings of responsibility, truthfulness, humanity, and justice, is the subject of the educational influence of school education. The main findings are: respondents showed a high level of knowledge about natural disasters; however, the level is the highest in natural disasters that are present in our region. The best knowledge of safety procedures is in relation to droughts because 98.6% of respondents indicate appropriate treatment. The lowest level of knowledge of safety procedures is registered in extreme temperatures and amounts to 52.5%. Of the total, 86.9% of respondents said that they had someone at school who talked about natural disasters, as opposed to 13.1% who responded negatively. 79.2% of respondents were introduced to some of the natural disasters by a family member, while 20.8% were not. 60.6% of respondents feel protected, 32.2% are not sure, and 6.9% do not feel protected in the facilities of the Academy when it comes to natural disasters. 26.4% feel the fear of natural disasters, 20.3% are not sure, and 53.3% do not feel fear. 83.9% of respondents would like to undergo training, 8.9% are not sure, and 7.2% do not want to. The largest number of respondents gained information about natural disasters through television (92.8%), and the smallest number through video games (5.8%). The results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between: the father’s education (p = 0.03≤0.05, phi = 0.30 – medium); mother’s education (p = 0.04≤0.05, phi = 0.10 – small); employment of parents (p = 0.05≤0.05, phi = 0.30 – medium) and knowledge about natural disasters. Also, there is a statistically significant relationship between television and the perception of knowledge about natural disasters (p = 0.05≤0.05, phi = 0.21 – medium).
Reference – Cvetković, V., Ivanov, A., & Sadiyeh, A. (2015). Knowledge and perceptions of students of the Academy of criminalistic and police studies about natural disasters. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days”, Belgrade, Volume II, 181-195
Classification of Emergency Situations
Abstract: There is no universally accepted definition or classification of an emergency situation. The adoption of a universally and generally acceptable classification of emergency situations represents one of the important challenges the researchers, competent governmental authorities, and international organizations have to face. The classification of emergencies in this paper has been made on the basis of analyses of different sources, such as course books, articles, internet sites, relevant international and national reports, etc. Based on this, several criteria have been proposed for defining the classification of emergencies. Justification and acceptability of classification of emergency situations constitute an important prerequisite for their valid recording and better quality analysis, as well as for the international cooperation of governments, authorities in charge, members of the scientific community and non-governmental organizations from that field of work. This paper gives a short overview of the classification of emergency situations, with a special focus on the USA, the Russian Federation, China, the Netherlands, Germany and Serbia.
Conclusion: The prerequisite for the classification of emergency situations is an unequivocal determination of the mentioned subject of division. A newly created or analyzed classification of emergency situations should satisfy the conditions of the valid classification relating to the theory and logical requirements. According to this, validity requirements for classification relate to the criteria, on one hand, and to the members of division, on the other hand. Theoretical research of the classification of emergency situations that has been performed by the analysis of various specialized materials published in Serbia and around the world represents an attempt at a modest contribution to the identification of the universally accepted classification of emergency situations. More concretely, during the research, a large number of various definitions and classifications of emergency situations has been processed, despite the authors being aware that some of the translations have not been done in the most professional way, in an appropriate context, etc. Therefore, we are of the opinion that it will be worth elaborating some of the conclusions we have reached. Each emergency and its characteristics has its own causes of occurrence, unique scenario, influence on human beings and the environment, scales, and severity of consequences. It implies that emergency situations can be classified on the basis of numerous features that take into consideration these complex occurrences from different points of view. However, differences between the classifications are a consequence of different definitions of emergency situations as a subject of division. One of the reasons for that is that authors have translated foreign terms literally and without criticism (disaster, catastrophe, emergency) and connected them with our terms, such as emergency situation, catastrophe, crisis, state of emergency. Besides, numerous definitions of emergency situations may have a national or culturological feature which makes the standardization of the mentioned term difficult. As far as the international classification is concerned, the most accepted and most cited is the classification of emergency situations offered by CRED, i.e., the organization for research of epidemiological disasters that has been striving for years to adopt the international definitions and classifications of emergency situations. All this has as a consequence the fact that numerous classifications of emergency situations express specificities of their countries of origin. Although intensive efforts have been made by the international organizations, state bodies and organizations, as well as by individuals to accept their proposed classifications of emergency situations as universal, the mentioned classifications of various authors, organizations and institutions around the world unambiguously testify that this has not yet happened. Therefore, we can say that there is no accepted (adopted) and universal classification of emergency situations. Generally speaking, all emergency situations can be classified into three framework types: natural emergency situations, emergency situations that are related (directly or indirectly) to human beings (they are called anthropogenic, technological, technical-technological, social) and hybrid emergency situations (a combination of acts of natural forces and the influence of human decisions). Therefore, the mentioned classifications have been derived by means of the criterion of cause that has a generic-structural characteristic, i.e., it fulfills logical requirements of classification. The common feature of all emergency situations regardless of the type is related to their consequences. By combining the criteria of cause and consequence, intensity and consequences, etc., valid complex typologies are being obtained. Besides, emergency situations are divided into groups, sub-groups, and incidents, i.e., the so-called “classifying systems.” When making a classification of emergency situations, researchers, organizations, and institutions use various criteria, some of which have a theoretical or pragmatic-teleological importance. Therefore, the understanding of definitions and classifications of emergency situations serves researchers and organizations around the world as a good platform for research, database management, better analysis of them all, and practical implementation of derived conclusions.
Reference – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2013). Classification of Emergency Situations. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance., Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, 275-291.
Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters
Abstract: Natural disasters increasingly threaten the safety of mankind. Not only that, in past decades there has been an obvious increase in the number of natural disasters, but it is also present an increase in their destructiveness. This results in a higher loss of life, material and non-material damage. In addition, compromising critical infrastructure prevents or limits the implementation of vital state functions (governance, health, education, energy, economic, social, and general security functions), which is further reflected in the safety of states and citizens. Despite the technological development of mankind, societies are increasingly threatened. It is clear that the disasters and their impact on people and critical infrastructure cannot be prevented, but mechanisms for prediction and early warning of disasters can be improved that the resilience and capacity for faster and more efficient revitalization of endangered values and goods can be increased. Besides the degree of destruction, the response strategy in an emergency situation will depend on the type of disaster, but also on the kind of critical infrastructure and specific goods and values that are threatened. In this regard, the paper gives an overview of the scope and the content of (still undetermined) concept of critical infrastructure, the term and the phenomenology of natural disasters, the consequences of geophysical, hydrological and meteorological disasters on critical infrastructure and critical infrastructure protection capabilities against natural disasters. Key words: safety, critical infrastructure, natural disasters, the consequences of threats to critical infrastructure by natural disasters, protection of critical infrastructure from natural disasters.
Conclusion: The protection of critical infrastructure is recognized as the foundation of maintaining the functionality of the community in emergency situations such as natural disasters. The main goal of protecting critical infrastructure from the impact of natural disasters is to maintain the continuity of its operation (Hromada & Lucas, 2012). Reducing the impact of natural disasters on people and critical infrastructure includes interventions to prevent or reduce the possibility of physical threats and social disruption (Zhou et al., 2010). There are two dominant types of reducing the impact of natural disasters. Structural reduction involves the design, construction, maintenance, and renovation of physical structures and infrastructures to resist the physical forces and impacts of natural disasters. Non-structural reduction includes efforts to reduce the exposure of the human population, physical structures, and infrastructures to danger. Non-structural reduction approaches include legally adopted town planning measures that take into account the possible impact of disasters; regulating development in high-risk areas such as sloping fields prone to landslides and coastal zones targeted by storm waves, and, in some cases, the purchase and relocation of communities or parts of communities, which is a measure now used for areas that have experienced repeated flood losses (COPO, 2007, p. 123; Preet, 2006). Examining the attributes and determinants of the resilience of facilities and critical infrastructure, researchers at the Multidisciplinary Centre for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) at the University at Buffalo, USA, have developed an R4 resilience framework: robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness, and rapidity (Tierney & Bruneau, 2007). The first component of this framework refers to the ability of the system, system elements, and other units of analysis to withstand a given magnitude of disaster without significant degradation or loss of function. Robustness reflects the inherent strength of the system. The lack of robustness may cause system failure, as happened with the breaking of the dike in New Orleans in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina. The second R4 component, redundancy, refers to the extent to which elements of the system are sustainable (i.e., able to meet functional requirements if there is significant impairment of functionality). Redundancy provides alternative options, choices, and substitutions. The lack of these components prevents the proper response to natural disasters. A significant number of people in New Orleans were not able to evacuate in accordance with the mandatory evacuation before landslides during Hurricane Katrina because public transport was unavailable (Harrington et al., 2005). The component resourcefulness is associated with the capacity to diagnose the problem, prioritize, and adequately mobilize resources for rapid recovery from the impact of natural disasters. The last R4 component is rapidity, referring to the capacity to meet priorities and timely rehabilitate consequences and revitalize endangered values (Mileti, 1999). In order to reduce the possibility of food shortages in areas affected by floods, it is necessary to plan food storage on high ground. Thus, the vulnerability of the system can be reduced by reducing dependence on one source of production or services; increasing levels of portability to maximize the utilization of resources and the innovation of efficient and flexible systems that can withstand major disasters and reduce the need for reconstruction costs (COPO, 2007). Warning against putting “all eggs in one basket” may be well applied here because the system is less vulnerable when its resources of critical infrastructure are versatile and widely distributed (Bimal, 2011).
Reference – Mijalković, S., Cvetković, V. (2013). Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure by Natural Disasters. Belgrade, zbornik radova – National Critical Infrastructure Protection, Regional Perspective, 2013, 91-102.
Spatial and temporal distribution of floods like natural emergency situations
Abstract: Floods as hydrological emergencies, every day increasingly threaten the safety of people and their property. As such, they intensely attract the attention of researchers in the field of geospatial, technical, natural, information and other sciences, but also experts in the field of emergency who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred method of scientific research and drawing conclusions about the phenomenology of flood is a statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of flood in period from 1900 until 2013 at the global level. Thereby, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the first step, it was taken raw (unprocessed) data in the format of “An Excel” file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which was then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. The temporal analysis it is examines the distribution of the total number and impacts of floods on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 countries by the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the geospatial distribution it is analyzed the total number and consequences of floods by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the top five states in terms of total number and variety of consequences. Therefore, for more effective and efficient protection and emergency response caused by the deleterious effect of flooding, it is needed to comprehensively explore specified natural phenomena, so that the subject of the paper will be form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of manifestation of flooding. In addition, it is important to mention that geospatial and temporal analysis of floods gives meaning, content and value to a comprehensive effort to understand natural hazards and their effects better, to protect people from them timely, and in this case, adjust to the flood risk.
Conclusion: After the analysis of natural disasters, the following conclusions were made: In the period from 1900 to 2013, there were 25,552 natural disasters. During these disasters, 65,009,766 people were killed, 15,221,227 were injured, 13,566,647,548 were affected, and 337,112,287 were left homeless. The total damage amounted to 5,066,645,713 US dollars. During the reporting period, floods were the most frequent, while landslides and rockfalls were the rarest. The largest number of people was killed due to droughts, injured by extreme temperatures, and affected by floods. The largest number of people was left homeless due to floods. The highest total damage was caused by storms. The smallest number of people was killed as a result of insect infestations, injured due to forest fires, and affected by landslides and rockfalls. The fewest people lost their homes due to epidemics, insect infestations, and landslides and rockfalls. Material damage was also least caused by epidemics, insect infestations, and landslides and rockfalls. The largest number of natural disasters occurred in Asia, and the smallest in Oceania. Accordingly, the distribution of consequences by continents is similar. Looking at the time continuum, the largest number of natural disasters occurred from 2000 to 2013, and the smallest number from 1910 to 1920. Of these, the largest number of fatalities was from 1900 to 1910, and the smallest from 1990 to 2000. The largest number of injuries occurred from 2000 to 2013, and the smallest from 1900 to 1910. The largest number of people affected by natural disasters was from 2000 to 2013, and the smallest from 1900 to 1910. In the period from 2000 to 2013, the largest number of people was left homeless, while this number was smallest from 1940 to 1950. Statistical results clearly indicate the severity of the increase in the number and effects of natural disasters. These results can be used as a serious argument to stimulate the capacities of countries to deal with natural disasters.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2014). Spatial and temporal distribution of floods like natural emergency situations. International scientific conference “Archibald Reiss days” Thematic conference proceedings of international significance (3-4 March 2014), Belgrade, The Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, 371-389.
Comparative analysis of national strategies for protection and rescue in emergencies in Serbia and Montenegro with emphasis on Croatia
Abstract: Emergencies caused by different types of disasters (natural, technological and complex) are as old as human history. They have always created serious problems for people and their communities, forcing them to take appropriate measures to ensure their prevention, mitigation, response and recovery. Keeping in mind the security implications of emergencies for the population, the overall tangible and intangible assets and the environment, each country has a primary responsibility for its own sustainable development on one hand, and for implementation of effective measures to reduce the risk of emergencies on the other hand. Therefore, the state and its authorities shall promptly undertake measures aimed at protecting people and their material assets and the environment from the impacts of emergency situations, i.e. to undertake measures to effectively reduce the risk of emergencies caused by disasters. In addition, one of the most important measures is certainly incorporating the integrated and multifaceted approach to disaster risk reduction into policies, planning and programming related to sustainable development, assistance, rehabilitation and revitalization activities in post-catastrophic and post-conflict situations in countries at risk disaster. The countries that develop policy, legislative and institutional framework for disaster risk reduction and those that are able to develop and track progress through specific and measurable indicators have greater capacity to manage risks and to achieve a widely accepted consensus on the inclusion and fulfilling measures of risk reduction across all sectors of the society. Certainly, on the list of significant measures aimed at reducing the risk of disaster is the adoption of the national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations. Generally speaking, national strategies are 201 aimed at a comprehensive understanding of the source of current and future risks, the establishment of the concept of organized activities of the government and other institutions to reduce emergencies caused by all forms of major natural and technological disasters, to mitigate their consequences through prevention actions, as well as development of adequate state of readiness and capacity of the whole community. Therefore, the national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations is a crucial foundation on which all other activities aimed at reducing disaster risk rest. That is why the author has done a detailed analysis of the National Strategy for Protection and Rescue of Serbia and Montenegro-with respect to Croatia, in order to compare their contents, based solutions, and implemented international standards. In addition, special attention is paid to the analysis of grounding of such strategies, keeping in mind the objective risk assessments of possible emergencies, which are determined by presenting a statistical analysis of each country.
Conclusion: Given the importance of measures to reduce the risk of disasters, the international community has made tremendous efforts to raise awareness about the importance of implementing the provisions of international conventions into national strategic documents. Additionally, there are numerous international conventions that regulate disaster risk reduction and should be implemented in national policies. However, despite international conventions and support from the international community, many states do not have a national strategy for protection and rescue in emergency situations. Serbia and Montenegro have national strategies for protection and rescue in emergency situations, while Croatia has a national platform for disaster risk reduction. Bosnia and Herzegovina, however, does not have such strategies. Therefore, these countries are compelled to work together to harmonize standards in emergency management to facilitate more effective protection and rescue of people, material and cultural resources, and the environment in emergencies. The following recommendations highlight this need: the Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World, the Conference in Kobe, the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction Conference, and the conclusions of the Conference in Geneva. A comparative analysis of the national strategies for protection and rescue in emergency situations in Serbia and Montenegro, compared to Croatia, led to the following conclusions. The differences between the NSRP of Serbia and Montenegro include the structure of their strategies, which differ significantly, particularly in the implementation of the Hyogo Protocol provisions and other segments related to disaster risk reduction. Montenegro’s strategy defines certain terms such as “emergency situation” and “accident” in the introduction, whereas the Serbian strategy does not include these categories. The objectives to be achieved differ largely, reflecting the current level reached in their protection and rescue systems. Montenegro’s strategy does not explicitly mention vision and mission, while Serbia’s strategy includes these elements. Serbia’s strategy identifies shortcomings of the existing protection and rescue system, while Montenegro’s strategy does not explicitly mention these, though they can be inferred through analysis. The strategies also differ in their analysis of the situation and the identified causes of emergency situations. The similarities between the NSRP of Serbia and Montenegro are notable. Both strategies identify common threats of emergencies, noting that the discussed countries are most threatened by natural disasters and strategic decisions must consider this fact. Technological disasters rarely affect these countries but cause more serious consequences when they do occur. Provisions from international conventions are maximally integrated into national strategies for protection and rescue in emergency situations. The general objectives of the strategies are identical. Certain structural forms are identical, and the terminology used is the same. Both strategies refer to the same international documents in the field of disaster risk reduction. Given that the countries in the region face similar emergency situations and that there are international conventions regulating disaster risk reduction, it is necessary to consider adopting a “Balkan strategy for disaster risk reduction,” with a special emphasis on international cooperation in providing all kinds of assistance.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2014). Comparative analysis of national strategies for protection and rescue in emergencies in Serbia and Montenegro with emphasis on Croatia. International conference: Macedonia and the Balkans, a hundred years after the world war I – security and euroatlantic integrations (3-5 june 2014). Skopje: University St. Kliment Ohridski – Bitola, Faculty of Security, 200-216
Fires as threatening security phenomenon: factors of influence on knowledge about fires
Abstract: This paper presents the results of quantitative research of factors influencing knowledge and perceptions of students about fire as threatening security phenomenon. Applying a multi-stage sample interviewed 3063 students from 13 secondary schools in the city of Belgrade. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that in contrast to the 95.4% of respondents who said they knew, only 63.6% really knows what is a fire. In a proper way will react only 57.1% of respondents. The results of inferential statistical analysis shows that the perception of students knowledge on fires significantly affect gender, education of father and mother, parents’ employment, information via television, Internet and video games. On the other hand, the objective knowledge on fires affect gender, education of father and mother, information via television, radio and the Internet. Finally, it was found that the knowledge of proper ways to react when fire happened is not significantly affected by gender and way of information via television, but affected by age, education of father and mother, parents employment, information via Internet, video games and radio. Developing students security culture in relation fire as a threatening security phenomenon in many ways can mitigate the consequences of such events. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing the educational programs of students about fires. Key words: security, natural disasters, fire, factors, students, Serbia.
Conclusion: Examining the factors influencing knowledge about fires, various conclusions were reached: 95.3% of respondents estimate that they know what a fire is, while in reality only 63.6% actually know. Accordingly, it was found that 31.7% of respondents are under the misconception that they know what a fire is. When it comes to proper behavior in emergency situations caused by fires, 57.4% of male respondents and 52.6% of female respondents know how to act correctly. Female respondents slightly more than male respondents claim to know what a fire is. Also, female respondents slightly more objectively know what a fire is compared to male respondents. Furthermore, it was found that respondents aged 14 to 16 would act more correctly in a slightly higher percentage compared to respondents aged 17 to 19. The highest percentage of respondents whose fathers have completed higher education claim to know what a fire is, while the least percentage is among respondents whose fathers have academic titles. On the other hand, the highest percentage of respondents whose fathers have higher education objectively know what a fire is, unlike respondents whose fathers have completed elementary school. Similar results were recorded when it comes to knowledge of proper behavior in such emergency situations. The highest percentage of respondents whose fathers have higher education know how to act correctly in emergency situations caused by fire, unlike respondents whose fathers have completed elementary school. Respondents who do not live with their father in a slightly higher percentage compared to respondents who live with their father claim to know what a fire is. Respondents whose both parents are employed, or one of them, in a slightly higher percentage claim to know what a fire is compared to respondents whose parents are unemployed. Respondents whose both parents are employed would act correctly in the highest percentage in an emergency situation caused by fire compared to respondents whose one parent is employed or whose parents are unemployed. Respondents who play video games have objectively greater knowledge compared to those who do not play. As with video games, respondents who use the internet have objectively greater knowledge compared to those who do not use it. Respondents who listen to the radio know how to act correctly in an emergency situation caused by fire in a higher percentage compared to respondents who do not listen to the radio. Also, respondents who use the internet know how to act correctly in a higher percentage compared to respondents who do not use the internet. Respondents who live with their father would act correctly in an emergency situation in a slightly higher percentage (58.2%) compared to respondents who do not live with their father. On the other hand, respondents who do not live with their mother would act incorrectly in an emergency situation in a slightly higher percentage (59%). Considering that the level of real (objective) knowledge is not at a very high level, it is necessary to design educational campaigns and programs aimed at raising awareness among young people about emergency situations caused by fires. In designing campaigns and programs, special attention should be paid to the male population aged 17 to 19, students whose fathers have completed elementary school, and whose parents are unemployed. When it comes to the method of educating students, it is possible to educate them effectively through video games, the internet, and the radio.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Gačić, J. (2017). Fires as threatening security phenomenon: factors of influence on knowledge about fires. Paper presented at the Conference: 10th International Conference “Crisis management days“ – security environment and challenges of crisis management, On 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.
Protection of critical infrastructure from natural disasters
Abstract: Protection of critical infrastructure is one of the significant measures for mitigating the consequences of natural disasters. As such, it is recognized as the foundation for maintaining the functionality of the community in emergency situations. It can be said that the main goal of protecting critical infrastructure from the impact of natural disasters is to maintain continuity in its operation. Reducing the impact of natural disasters on people and critical infrastructure involves interventions aimed at preventing or reducing the possibility of physical threats and social disruption. There are two dominant types of reducing the impact of natural disasters: structural and non-structural. Structural reduction involves designing, constructing, maintaining, and renovating physical structures and infrastructures to resist the physical forces and impacts of natural disasters, while non-structural reductions include efforts to reduce the exposure of the human population, physical structures, and infrastructures to hazardous conditions. Non-structural reduction approaches include legally adopted urban planning measures that consider the potential impacts of disasters; regulating development in high-risk zones such as sloped terrains prone to landslides and coastal areas targeted by storm waves; and even in some cases, the purchase and relocation of communities or parts of communities. Therefore, in this paper, the author analyzes the possibilities of protecting critical infrastructure from the direct and indirect consequences of natural disasters, with particular attention to structural and non-structural measures for their protection. Additionally, special attention is paid to the phenomenological structure and consequences of different types of natural disasters on critical infrastructure.
Conclusion: Natural disasters are part of the ecological sphere in which we live. Hurricanes, floods, winter storms, and earthquakes play an important role in regulating the larger natural systems on which we all depend. Attempts to physically modify these systems often have serious consequences, including increased vulnerability to hazards and damage after disasters. The vulnerability of critical infrastructure is closely related to resilience, which implies the capacity of such systems to recover from the consequences of disasters or their capacity to respond to and cope with extreme hazards. Quantitative approaches in engineering sciences attempt to assess the resilience of infrastructure with the goal of reducing losses through research and the application of advanced technologies that enhance engineering, pre-disaster planning strategies, and post-disaster recovery strategies. To adequately protect critical infrastructure with the help of various structural and non-structural measures, it is very important to have a good understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of natural disasters. Therefore, the first step in protecting critical infrastructure would be to conduct a vulnerability assessment of the local government territory, which would identify all potential natural disasters. Following this, appropriate measures would need to be taken to improve the resilience of the critical infrastructure that is crucial for the functioning of communities. Resilient communities may bend before the extreme impact of natural disasters but do not break. They are consciously built to be strong and flexible, not brittle and fragile. Their vital systems of roads, utilities, and other support institutions are designed to continue functioning in the face of rising water, strong winds, and earthquakes. Settlements and businesses, their hospitals, and public safety centers are located in safe areas rather than in known high-risk areas. In such communities, buildings are constructed or adapted to meet building standards designed to mitigate the threats of natural hazards. Natural ecological protection systems such as dunes and wetlands are preserved to maintain their hazard mitigation functions as well as their traditional uses. Therefore, disaster-resilient communities are more sustainable than those that do not develop a comprehensive strategy that incorporates hazard mitigation into their current and ongoing activities of construction, design, and planning of critical infrastructure. Taking appropriate measures to ensure greater resilience and sustainability primarily requires gaining greater respect for the hazards that dominate a particular area. Communities around the world have numerous structural and non-structural measures at their disposal to protect critical infrastructure from the consequences of natural disasters. The resilience of the critical infrastructure and the local community depends on the degree of respect for the necessity of their implementation. For such communities, critical infrastructure built according to appropriate laws can be more resilient to the various consequences and impacts of natural disasters. Therefore, it is less likely that such infrastructure will be damaged by strong winds, floods, storm surges, earthquakes, etc. It is also very important to involve experts from all possible social and natural profiles in improving the resilience of critical infrastructure, who will comprehensively assess and improve the weak points of the critical infrastructure.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2014). Zaštita kritične infrastrukture od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Sedma međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravlјanja“. Hrvatska: Velika Gorica, 22. i 23. maj, 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.
Information systems and disaster risk management
Abstract: Disaster risk management is nowadays hard to imagine without appropriate information systems that facilitate the decision-making process in phases before, during, and after the disaster. In the face of disasters, decision-makers must look at and analyze various information on hazard characteristics such as nature, power, and intensity, while on the other hand, they must take timely measures to achieve a short-term and long-term recovery of the community from the consequences of such events. Certainly, the spatial dimension of disasters has a decisive importance in terms of rapidly addressing the resulting consequences and preventing the further spread of harmful effects of various disasters. In the paper, the authors describe the existing information systems, their characteristics and ways of applying them in the process of disaster risk management. In addition, special attention is paid to the description and the way of using geographic information systems as well as remote detection and satellite recording. Also, the role and significance of social media systems and interactive simulation and visualisation for modern disaster risk management are examined.
Conclusion: Disaster risk management is a very complex process that incorporates a large number of elements and phases directly related to the characteristics of the disaster itself. That is why, with today’s degree of scientific development, its functioning is unimaginable without certain information technologies that help decision-makers collect, analyze, display, and understand specific spatial and temporal information. The lack of absolute prediction, intensity, and destructive power alarmingly emphasize the need for a rapid decision-making process. This decision-making process in risk management, aside from human errors, can be greatly enhanced by the use of fast information systems. The Geographic Information System improves the disaster risk management process in various ways. In the period prior to the occurrence of the disaster itself, this system can be used for planning activities, while during the disaster, it can be used as significant logistical support in the decision-making process. The advantages of using information systems in the disaster risk management process are multiple and include: efficient and timely review of the overall situation on the ground, decision-making based on highly professional operational information, improved coordination of short-term and long-term mitigation activities or elimination of consequences in the area affected by a disaster, improved communication in the field, better allocation of resources and assistance to affected citizens, etc. It is necessary to continue the development of information systems for disaster risk management, as this can greatly mitigate the catastrophic consequences caused by unprofessional and untimely decisions.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Information systems and disaster risk management. Paper presented at the International Scientific and professional conference – 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. 1281-1295. challenges of crisis management, At 24, 25 and 26 May 2017.
Influence of households distance on flood disaster preparedness in Serbia (Uticaj udaljenosti domaćinstva od reke na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji
The aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of distance households on the preparedness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by a flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected a sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade. In selected communities research was undertaken in those areas that were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The survey results indicate that: people who live in a households up to 2 km away from sources of potential flooding for the most part taken preventive measures in order to reduce the financial consequences, thinking about the readiness encourage them heavy rains, they know what’s floods, familiar security response procedures. In contrast, people who live in the household over 10 km away from sources of potential flooding in the slightest degree taken preventive measures in order to reduce the financial consequences, would be engaged in one of the reception centers for victim assistance floods, to reflect on the readiness encourage them fixed rain. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. Keywords: natural disasters, floods, citizens, households distance, preparedness for response, Serbia.
Conclusion: When it comes to the connection between the distance of a house or apartment from the river and the readiness of citizens to respond, research results indicate certain trends. Citizens who live in households up to 2 km from the source of a potential flood have taken preventive measures to reduce material consequences. They are prompted to think about readiness by prolonged rains, know what a flood is, and are familiar with safety procedures. They would evacuate to friends and mention that someone in their family has talked to them about floods. They would evacuate in the event of an approaching flood wave, know what assistance the elderly, disabled, and infants require, and know what to do after an official warning about an approaching flood wave. They are aware of viruses and infections that follow the post-flood period and know where the gas valve is located. They have obtained information about floods from neighbors and family, would like to be educated through lectures, and mention that they have been educated about responding through informal education systems. They possess food supplies for four days, a pickaxe, a fire extinguisher for initial fires, supplies in the car, a first aid kit at home, a written response plan, have discussed the response plan with household members, and have copies of important financial, personal, and other documents. Citizens who live 2 to 5 km away would evacuate to reception centers, state that their neighbors can save themselves independently, have obtained information about floods in school, and possess food supplies for two days and a flashlight. Citizens who live in households 5 to 10 km from the source of a potential flood would engage in some reception centers to provide assistance to flood victims, would evacuate to neighbors, have obtained information about floods through the radio, and would like to undergo specific response training. They have supplies at home in case of a flood, have food supplies for one day, renew their supplies once a month, renew their supplies once a year, have an unwritten response plan, and are insured against the consequences of floods. Citizens who live in a house or apartment more than 10 km from the source of a potential flood would evacuate to higher floors of the house, know where the water valve and electrical switch are located, and know how to handle the water valve, gas valve, and electrical switch. It is necessary to influence citizens who live in households up to ten kilometers from the river to take preventive measures and to engage in some reception centers to provide assistance to flood victims. To encourage them to take preparedness measures, it is necessary to show them pictures or videos of prolonged rains, as these prompt them to think about readiness. They need to be educated about floods and safety procedures for response. They should be specifically informed about the necessity of evacuation in the event of an approaching flood wave, as well as about viruses and infections that follow the post-flood period. Citizens living in households up to two kilometers from the river need to be educated about the necessity of evacuation to reception centers if needed. They should be encouraged to use flood insurance and informed about the location and handling of the water valve. Citizens living in a house or apartment 5 to 10 kilometers away should be educated on how to handle the water valve, gas valve, and electrical switch, as well as about the potential occurrence of a flood wave. Efforts should be made to ensure they have supplies at home, food supplies for one and two days, a flashlight, a fire extinguisher for initial fires, that they renew their supplies once a month, and have copies of important financial, personal, and other documents.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2016). Uticaj udaljenosti naselja od reke na spremnost građana za reagovanje na poplave u republici Srbiji. Deveta međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravljanja“, Veleučilište Velika Gorica, Hrvatska, 12-13 aprila, Split.
Analysis factors of influence to the knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about epidemics – Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama
Abstract: This quantitative research aims to determine the perception and actual knowledge of secondary school students in the Belgrade region with respect to epidemics as a natural disaster and security threat and to identify the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions. The authors use a method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence student knowledge and perceptions about epidemics. For the purpose of this research, a sample of 3.548 students was drawn from the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade (65.561 students), which equates to 5.4% of the population. From population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools randomly selected them is 13th. The research results shows that the students’ knowledge of the epidemics influence: gender, education of father and mother, success in school; the perception: gender, education of father and mother, education in school; and knowledge of safety procedures reactions: age, education of father and mother household with his grandfather, education in family and school. Because of the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the results of this study can be used when creating a strategy for educational programs. Research suggests how to affect secondary school students in order to raise the level of perception and knowledge about epidemics.
Conclusion: Based on statistical analyses of factors influencing knowledge, perception, and familiarity with safety procedures regarding epidemics, the following conclusions were reached: The gender of respondents is statistically significantly related to perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety response procedures. The age of respondents is statistically significantly related to perception, but no such relationship exists with knowledge and familiarity with safety procedures. The education level of the father and mother is statistically significantly related to perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety procedures. The academic success of respondents is statistically significantly related to knowledge and perception, while no such relationship exists with familiarity with safety procedures. Fear of epidemics is statistically significantly related to perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety response procedures. Education about epidemics in school and family is statistically significantly related only to perception, while no such relationship exists with knowledge and familiarity with safety response procedures. Finally, no statistically significant relationship was found between living with certain family members and perception, knowledge, and familiarity with safety response procedures. Based on these results, the creation of educational strategies to improve students’ knowledge about epidemics must consider the following socio-demographic and psychological characteristics: gender, age, parent’s education level, academic success, and the presence of fear of epidemics.
Apstrakt: Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o epidemijama kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o epidemijama. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o epidemijama statistički značajno utiču (p < 0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, obrazovanost oca i majke , uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, edukacija u školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, obrazovanost oca i majke, edukacija u školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, epidemije, učenici srednjih škola u Beogradu, faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Ivanov, A. (2016). Analiza faktora uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o epidemijama. Deveta međunarodna znastveno-stručna konferencija ,,Dani kriznog upravljanja“, Veleučilište Velika Gorica, Hrvatska, 12-13 aprila, Split, 859-868.
Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of storms as a natural disaster (Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distrubucije oluja kao prirodnih katastrofa)
Abstract: The purpose of the research – the research has been undertaken to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of the number and consequences of storms in the global geospace in the period from 1900 till 2013.
Design/methodology/approach – The paper applied statistical methods. In addition, a statistical study was conducted by taking the raw data of all natural disasters (25,552) in mind, Excel “file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, after which they were analyzed in the same program for statistical analysis of data SPSS.
Inventions – Statistical analysis of the results clearly indicate that the number of storms on the rise, as well as the severity of their consequences.
Research limitations – it cannot be said that an international database on natural disasters included absolutely everything that happens in the world, given that it was created thanks to the submitted national reports on natural disasters in the period in 1900 till 2013. So the question that arises is whether the most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports.
Practical implications – bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the world’s geographic space, the results are a good argument to launch a serious reform of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world.
Social implications – Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens on the severity of the consequences of meteorological disasters on people, the environment and their property.
Original value – in local Serbian literature, there are no scientific papers on this approach analyzing storms on this way. These results are original, bearing in mind the scientific method used to analyze the data obtained from the Center for Research disaster in Brussels.
Conclusion: Analyzing numbers, trends, impacts, and temporal and geospatial distribution of storms from 1900 to 2013, we came to the following conclusions regarding the total number of storm events by continent. During this period, the highest number of storms occurred in Asia (2,946) and the smallest in Africa (447). By the number of storms, the leading countries are the USA, Philippines, China, Bangladesh, and India. By the number of deaths due to the impacts of storms, Bangladesh ranks first, followed by China, India, Myanmar, and the Philippines. By the number of injuries due to the consequences of storms, China ranks first, followed by the Philippines, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. By the number of people affected by the consequences of storms, China ranks first, followed by Bangladesh, India, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Accordingly, in the period from 1900 to 2013, there were 7,149 storms, resulting in 2,766,859 deaths, 2,641,153 injuries, 1,742,924,832 people affected, and 105,054,916 left homeless. During the period from 1900 to 2013, the largest number of storms occurred from 2000 to 2013 and the fewest from 1910 to 1920. The largest number of deaths occurred from 1960 to 1970, and the lowest from 1950 to 1960. The largest number of injuries occurred from 1960 to 1970, and the fewest, without consequences, occurred from 1900 to 1910. By the number of people affected by the consequences of storms, the highest number was from 2000 to 2013, and the fewest, without consequences, was from 1900 to 1920. From 1990 to 2000, there was the highest number of homeless. From the above, it is necessary to continue ongoing research on phenomenology, monitoring methodology, and forecasting storms as a kind of natural disaster, to normatively improve the system of preventive care, especially in the area of more consistent compliance with urban planning standards for the construction of buildings according to risk assessments of vulnerability to storms. Finally, special emphasis should be placed on improving the monitoring system and promoting international cooperation and action of national rescue forces outside of national geographic space, from the regional to the global level.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Stojković, D. (2016). Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of storms as a natural disaster, 2016. The international conference is organized by the Faculty of Security – Skopje – University St. Kliment Ohridski – Bitola in collaboration with Faculty of detectives and security – FON University – Skopje. International scientific conference – criminalistic education, situation and perspectives – 20 years after Vodinelic. Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, from 24th to 25th October 2014.
Floods in the Republic of Serbia – Vulnerability and human security
Abstract: Vulnerability and human security have been changing over time and depended on the physical, social, economic and environmental factors. In modern terms these phenomena have become multi-dimensional, multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral and dynamic. However, in addition to empirical changes with respect to the nature of security threats, the increase of vulnerability and threatening to human security, there have increased the analytical range in their understanding as well as the institutional changes within the security structures. Many countries have abandoned the attitude that the floods and flash floods as the most important natural hazards can be suppressed or controlled, i.e. that can be fought against or placed under full control. With that regard, the attitude of adoptive management of security and rescue from floods and flash floods becomes more and more prevalent, as well as flood risk adjustment or the principle of “living with floods”. Accepting such attitude, relating cultural values of the society, economy, institutional and functional possibilities for the purpose of mitigating vulnerability and providing human security proved prominent in the Republic of Serbia. The state has taken a series of reform steps in view of recognizing its own physical exposure to food risks. At the same time, after such great floods which endangered a large part of the country’s territory, the country recognized its social-economic weaknesses of the community, as well as the necessity to increase the capacity to mobilize the resources in mitigating vulnerability and facilitating human security.
Conclusion: Vulnerability and human security are increasingly viewed in modern terms as cumulative processes interrelated from different aspects, causing a series of other problems that mutually aggravate further or give rise to other issues such as social and economic problems. Vulnerability and human security, in terms of the manifestation of flood risk, are multi-dimensional and characterized by weak infrastructure or institutions and their insufficient ability to respond in preventive and operational terms. Under the circumstances of flood risk manifestation, their power combined with the vulnerability of all exposed elements may result in endangering human security on a large scale in poor and vulnerable areas, especially in places where the highest economic investments are focused. The Republic of Serbia is constantly threatened by natural hazards, particularly floods. Flood risks in the last decade, especially the floods in May 2014, represent an indicator of extreme vulnerability and endangered human security in the state, as well as its lack of resilience to respond financially, organizationally, and functionally to their consequences. The importance of the adopted strategies and laws reflects the state’s attempt to adapt to flood risk and to create an integrated system that would respond to the real vulnerability and human safety of the community with its own renewed resources in an organized and functional manner.
Reference – Gačić, J., Jakovljević, V., & Cvetković, V. (2015). Floods in the Republik of Serbia – Vulnerability and Human Security. Twenty Years of Human Security: Theoretical Foundations and Practical Applications, University of Belgrade – Faculty of Security Studies, 277-286, April 2015.
Recognition and perception of risks and environmental hazards on the part of the student population in the Republic of Macedonia
Abstract: The subject of quantitative research in this paper is an analysis of the knowledge and the perceptions of students from seven different faculties in different years of study. The authors used a quantitative survey method to identify and describe the knowledge and perceptions about the possible risks and disasters. 382 students from all years of study were examined. The results show that the respondents have a high level of knowledge of natural disasters and that there is a significant difference among students depending mostly on the year of study. There is also a difference in some perceptions between the students from “nonsecurity” and “security” studies. The limitation of the research refers to the fact that the investigation is based only on students willing to participate in the answering of the questionnaire. Considering the evident lack of risks and hazards related to the Environment in Macedonia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy for educational programs, which would contribute to improving the safety of youth culture. The research results can also be used for the improvement of existing knowledge and preparedness for responding to risks and hazards related to the Environment.
Conclusion: The environment represents a field that comprises the interest of many scientific disciplines, and as a result of such interest, different scientific instruments are created. In general, it can be observed both as an interest in the natural sciences and the social sciences. In the social sciences, of particular importance is the connection between economics and sociology on one hand and the technical and natural laws on the other. This, of course, results in the creation of the concept of sustainable development. The relationship between Security and Risks is established, and it is of a visible or latent nature. The space for scientific research in this area is “unlimited.” Risks today represent a part of modern society, or as Beck calls it, “a risk society.” Within these general conditions, the environment and the media directly associated with it, and the closely related issues are increasingly gaining importance. As a result, more and more people will change their perception of security. In this sense, the variable “environment” will become increasingly important for the subjective feeling of security among people. In response to the risks and threats contrary to the doctrine of Liberal Thinking, all states will be strengthening their position and “manoeuvring space” to restrict the rights and freedoms of the people. Therefore, the risks, despite having objective potential for endangerment, are subject to additional “shaping,” most often by state authorities and the holders of information activities. The holders of information activities acquire a global dimension with incredible speed, and the state authorities cannot always keep up with this progress. Regarding the differences arising at the individual level about risk perception, the cultural context as well as the objective reality are of crucial importance. The students, in the group of threats to the environment, place the endangerment of the air and water in the first place. Half of them believe that the soil is subject to threat. The perception that the air is the most endangered is because all respondents live in Skopje. The students also consider that the threat to water is strong, but at the same time do not think that the Republic of Macedonia would have a problem with a shortage of water. Among the students, tradition, religion, and religious feelings are values that in most cases are evaluated differently, i.e., the answers range with substantial variations in the value of the standard deviation. Ethnic hatred has the highest value in terms of the assessment of its security relevance. The perception among the students about the risks and dangers to the environment at the global level is based on speculation and incomplete information. There are significant differences in these responses and a large scattering of opinions. The participants have built a perception that the environment in the country is not being protected. At the same time, they do not contribute towards its threat. The respondents as individuals significantly contribute to its protection (defined by four control issues). There is no statistically significant difference in the perception of the risks and dangers between the students at the Faculty of Security in Skopje and the students at the Institute for Defense and Peace. This indicates a relatively similar perception towards the risks and dangers. According to the authors, this is due to the development of a safety culture and the acquired knowledge during the studies and in general the attitude towards the risks and hazards associated with security. There is a difference in the perception of the value of security issues among the students from the first and third years of study. The students in the third year of study have a highly developed sense of security culture. Among the first-year students, we can see incomplete attitudes towards some security matters that can be especially illustrated by the values of the deviations to the standard deviation in the assessment of the security challenge in the cases: “the existence of a classical military threat,” “terrorism,” “trafficking of people,” and “human organ trafficking.” In addition, the performed t-test showed the statistical significance of the differences between these two groups regarding the questions: “human organ trafficking” and “terrorism.” There is a statistically significant difference between the attitudes of the students from the Faculty of Security in Skopje and the Faculty of Law “Iustinianus Primus” in terms of the range of danger of risks associated with the spread of tropical diseases to the north and south of the equator as well as pollution of the oceans due to the release of carbon dioxide. This is due to a higher degree of built security culture rather based on familiarity with real facts and data. Macedonia is vulnerable to risks and dangers of different natures, and the overall processes are not in favour of the existence of an optimal level of handling and managing these risks. The existence of the consequences for human health over the last decades of the 20th century has created social interest groups that enabled the creation of a system for environmental protection, which is not completely finished, i.e., it is not utterly functional and operational yet.
Reference – Ivanov, A., Cvetković, V., & Sudar, S. (2015). Recognition and perception of risks and environmental hazards on the part of the student population in the Republic of Macedonia. In: Zlatko Žlogev i Oliver Bacanović, International scientific conference – Researching security – approaches, concepts and policies, 02-03. University “St. Kliment Ohridski”- Bitola Faculty of Security – Skopje, 173-199.
Environmental aspects of using nuclear energy
Abstract: Nuclear technological production of electricity is characterized as a low-carbon technology, which on the one hand, has key importance in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, while on the other hand there are numerous controversies, defensive approach and anxiety due to the danger of nuclear accidents and solving the problem of radioactive waste. Starting from the actuality and importance of the issue of the use of nuclear energy in the context of solving environmental changes, the paper carried out a thorough review of literature. On this occasion, the paper carried out an insight into the existing relevant scientific knowledge in this field and a secondary analysis of the contents of documents of relevant international institutions, which within their competence publish data on the energy state and current emissions of greenhouse gases on a global level. The majority of papers emphasize the advantage of the use of nuclear energy in comparison with the generation of energy in the process of combustion of fossil fuels. It is primarily stated that small amounts of radioactive gases, which are regularly discharged under controlled conditions in the operation of nuclear power plants, cannot produce effects such as acid rain, smog, ozone depletion and do not contribute to an increase in temperature of the troposphere. However, the possibility of producing nuclear accidents and the severity of the consequences if radioactive isotopes leave the reactor uncontrollably, and the generation of radioactive waste results in a dilemma in the scientific and social community and creates a division in the acceptance of nuclear energy as an alternative to the use of fossil fuels.
Conclusion: Bearing in mind the increase in global demand for energy, concerns arise in almost all countries in the world, and many opt publicly to stimulate the production of energy produced and used in a way that simultaneously helps in developing and satisfying the vital needs of the population now and in the future. When making decisions at the national level, politicians in their long-term developmental energy strategies opt for different sources of energy, primarily oil, coal, natural gas, wood, and coal, and then for the most varied renewable sources of energy, such as solar, wind, hydropower, biomass, nuclear, etc. A detailed insight into relevant scientific papers published in prestigious scientific journals produced the conclusion that nuclear power, compared to fossil fuels, has significant ecological advantages, especially when it comes to decarbonization of the economy. The majority of papers state that nuclear energy, under normal conditions, almost does not produce harmful gases, and that small amounts of radioactive gases, which are regularly released under controlled conditions, cannot cause effects such as acid rain, smog, and ozone depletion. Thus, nuclear energy can be considered as a good support to global action to mitigate climate change. In addition to the possibility of nuclear energy to prevent climate change and air pollution, there is still disagreement over the danger of nuclear accidents and the solution of radioactive waste. The negative attitude of the public is influenced by the security risks of nuclear energy production and potential nuclear disasters, risks of environmental contamination by radioactive isotopes, and the problems of adequate disposal of nuclear waste. Waste generation is a key issue of sustainability that relates to resource use and proper waste management to avoid long-term consequences for people and the environment.
Reference – Filipović, M., Cvetković, V., & Nešić, S. (2017). Environmental aspects of using nuclear energy. International scientific and professional conference 40 years of higher education in the field of security – Theory and Practice, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia. Ohrid, pp. 30-35.
Risk management of natural disasters: Concepts and Methods
Abstract: Every day, people are exposed to a variety of risks ranging from small and insignificant to larger ones, such as natural disasters. The concept of risk has been a topic of interest for researchers from different disciplines in the past fifty years. For these reasons, there are many definitions of risk which reflect a scientific discipline itself from which they originated. Managing risks of natural disasters is very complex and conditioned by the existence of well-defined and elaborated management model that will allow efficient and prompt elimination of consequences. Certainly, understanding of the perception of risk is essential for the management prosess. Namely, individuals diferently perceive risks of natural disasters due to their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. Thereby, there are various methods of risk evaluation, which are conditioned by scientific-disciplinary approach, origin and size of risks. Starting from the multi-dimensionality of risks of natural disasters, the authors first analyze the theoretical determination of risk through the lens of different disciplines and perspectives with special emphasis on the types of risks. In addition, special attention is given to consideration of the risk management process through generally accepted models, methods and methodology of risk assessment in Serbia. Also, the paper gives an overview of the most important approaches to risks of natural disasters in social sciences.
Conclusion: Natural disasters pose a serious threat to the security of people and their property. Their unpredictability, intensity, and polymorphous character are just a few of the characteristics that greatly complicate the management of risks associated with natural disasters. Risk management, viewed as a scientific discipline and a practical activity, involves obtaining various information on the nature and type of hazard, the level of probability of the event, development mode, operation of critical infrastructure, and sometimes even reliance on expert intuition. The quality of risk management influences the ability to mitigate the effects of natural disasters. Timely findings about the possibilities of the occurrence of certain events of seismic, hydrological, biospheric, or other origins can be critical for the timely response of social units. At the same time, informing the public about disasters is an important element in the management of disaster risks. The public is most able to protect themselves against the consequences of a disaster if they are informed that there is a hazard, and then educated about what they can do to minimize risks. That is why public education programs are one of the basic disaster mitigation measures. Surely, it can be said that every citizen has the right and obligation to be informed about any potential risks that exist in the local community where they live or work, and it is necessary to enable efficient access to that information. The reality is that certain risks are associated with every aspect of our lives. Such risks cannot be eliminated but can be assessed and managed in order to eliminate or minimize the consequences of disasters.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Risk management of natural disasters: Concepts and Methods. International Scientific Conference “New directions and challenges in transforming societies through a multidisciplinary approach” 6th June, 2017, MIT University, City Gallery, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia.
Citizen’s education about floods: a Serbian case study
Abstract: The aim of quantitative research is a scientific explication of the effects of certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological citizens characteristics on citizens’ education in Serbia about floods. It is because of that that during the whole of 2015, a series of 2,500 face-to-face interviews was conducted in 19 out of the 190 municipalities of the Republic of Serbia. The study population consisted of all adult residents of the local communities in which floods occurred, and the sample size complied with the geographical and demographic size of the community. Results of the descriptive statistical analysis showed 24.9% of respondents were educated about natural disasters at school, 40.2% in the family, 29.9% at work, 39.9% of respondents know where elderly, disabled and infants live, 14% noted that they knew the risks of floods, etc. The research findings indicated that there is a statistically significant correlation between the level of knowledge about natural disasters and sex, age, marital status levels of education, fear of disaster, previous experience and income level. On the other hand, education at school, within the family, and at work is statistically significantly associated with age, level of education, marital status and employment status. The awareness of where the elderly, disabled and infants live was not statistically significantly related to sex, level of education, marital status and previous experience. The research indicates how to raise the level of citizens’ knowledge starting from their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. The research’s originality lies in the uncharted impact of those factors on the citizens’ knowledge about natural disasters in Serbia. The results can be used for the design of strategies to improve citizens’ knowledge about the natural disasters caused by flooding.
Conclusion: Regarding disaster risk reduction, schools should become increasingly important institutions in creating and improving the safety culture in children and youth. This is not only because they provide essential information and knowledge about disasters in the local community where students live, but also because the importance of school education on disasters has risen sharply in the last decades, especially bearing in mind that children are the most vulnerable people in society. In this paper, our findings highlighted that the highest number of respondents were educated about natural disasters at school, followed by in the family, and lastly at work. School disaster education is very important, and children who have been taught about the phenomenon of disasters and how to react to those situations have proved to be able to respond promptly and appropriately. Also, continuous community involvement is the most important factor for school disaster education. Johnston and colleagues found that traditional educational programs on natural disasters focused on passive information provide a very low level of awareness and motivation for citizens to raise their level of preparedness for response. In the moments before the arrival of a flood, the highest number of respondents would fill sandbags, and the smallest number would move their vehicles. Similar findings have been observed in Scotland. Regarding the actions aimed at preparing for a flood, they have evidenced that filling sandbags and locking doors were the most undertaken measures, underlining the place attachment and the unwillingness to evacuate or protect property. Elderly people and the disabled are especially vulnerable to natural disasters and have specific needs in emergency situations. Our findings highlighted that less than half of respondents know where elderly, disabled, and infants live, while half of them know what assistance is required by these categories of people. The awareness of the possibility of being exposed to flood threats plays an important role in disaster risk reduction. The exposure to a threat plays an important role. In general, our respondents showed low personal flood-risk awareness and a low level of knowledge about what to do in the period before the arrival of a flood wave. On the other hand, our findings highlighted that more than half of the respondents know where and how to handle the water valve and the main electric switch. However, less than half know where and how to handle the gas valve. Community flood education is becoming an increasingly important flood mitigation and disaster management mechanism. Citizens who are informed in time about an upcoming natural disaster through the warning and notification systems will not feel such fear because they know everything will go according to the pre-established procedures. Besides fear, knowledge, previous hazard experience, and feeling of threat of those at risk are important factors in the recognition of different risks. We found that men, engaged citizens, respondents who have a fear of floods, higher income people, and the unemployed in a higher percentage than women, singles or divorcées, respondents who don’t have a fear of floods, low-income people, and the employed claim that they know what a natural disaster is. To improve knowledge, it is necessary to raise awareness through campaigns, educational programs, and strategies for all citizens, especially women, citizens aged 28 to 38 years, those who have completed doctoral studies, singles, those who have fear, who have incomes up to RSD 50,000, and who have no previous experience.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Tarolli, P., Roder, G., Ivanov, A., Ronan, K., Ocam, A., & Kutub, R. (2017). Citizens education about floods: a Serbian case study. VII International scientific conference Archibald Reiss days, Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies, Belgrade.
Rad u vodećem časopisu nacionalnog značaja
The Gender Dimension of Vulnerability in Disaster Caused by the Corona Virus (Covid-19)
The subject of the research is an examination of the way in which the disease COVID-19 affects the gender aspects of the vulnerability of citizens, with special reference to their physical, socioeconomic and psychological vulnerability. For the purposes of this research, the perception of risk and the preparedness of men and women for the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic was examined. The results of this research were obtained by applying a quantitative survey of the citizens of the Republic of Serbia about their experiences and attitudes regarding their vulnerability due to the COVID-19 pandemic, where special attention is paid to the gender dimension. A survey of 273 adult citizens was conducted and the results showed that there is no significant connection between the gender category and the physical vulnerability of people caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The obtained data indicate that approximately the same percentage of women and men had severe symptoms of the disease. Nevertheless, the results showed that there is a partial connection between the gender category and socioeconomic vulnerability, as well as a clear connection between the gender category and the psychological vulnerability of people caused by the pandemic. In both cases, the results indicate that women are more vulnerable socioeconomically and psychologically than men. As this topic is not sufficiently represented in foreign, and especially not in domestic literature, the results of this research can serve as guidelines for future investigations of the gender dimension of people in the conditions of disasters, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
Conclusion: As the COVID-19 pandemic is still active, the differences between male and female mortality and susceptibility to infection remain an area of active investigation. Nevertheless, when reviewing the previous domestic and foreign literature, relatively similar results can be observed, not only when it comes to the physical vulnerability of men and women, but also when we talk about the socio-economic and psychological factors of their vulnerability. The results showed that a slightly higher number of women were infected with this virus, while the severity of the disease in men and women was quite equal. There is a slightly higher percentage of men than women who had severe symptoms. However, it is important to take into account that for the purpose of this research, a large number of young people were examined, and it is assumed that the virus most often manifests itself asymptomatically or with milder symptoms. It was also established that women behaved more socially responsibly in the conditions of the pandemic than men, as well as that they respected the prescribed measures that were in force to a greater extent. Also, a higher percentage of women believe that their daily rhythm is threatened by the consequences of the pandemic, than when it comes to men. However, there is no significant connection between the gender category and the threat to the workplace of employees since the beginning of the pandemic, as well as the negative impact of the virus on the respondents’ relationships with other people. In addition, the results show that there is a significant connection between the gender category and the respondents’ fear of being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The same is the case when it comes to the connection between gender and the negative impact of the pandemic on the mental health of the respondents. On the other hand, the results indicate that a larger percentage of women believe that the health situation we are in is serious. When it comes to the views of respondents on the justification of the introduction of curfew, a clear connection between their views and the category of gender can be observed. However, the results show that there is no significant relationship between the gender category and the respondents’ attitudes about media reporting during the pandemic, as well as the respondents’ decisions to get vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Based on this research, it can be determined that not enough attention has been paid to the gender dimension when it comes to the vulnerability of people caused by the pandemic of this virus. Special attention should be paid to highly stigmatized topics, which are often absent from domestic literature. The existing literature suggests that men have a higher risk of more severe infection and mortality from this virus. It is believed that elevated oestrogen levels in SARS-CoV-2 patients may reduce the severity and chance of death. On the other hand, in the domain of socio-economic vulnerability, women are significantly more affected by this pandemic, both in terms of job loss and the overall level of employment, as well as in terms of working hours, as well as work related to doing housework and taking care of children and the household. In general, it can be said that the pandemic contributed to the development of certain situations and circumstances, such as increased sensitivity and the manifestation of the disease in men; deterioration of the status of women due to their dominant role in running the household and taking care of children, poor access to digital tools, poor digitization of women’s jobs before the pandemic itself, increased risk of domestic violence; improving the position of men due to the greater digital potential of their workplaces; improving the status of women in terms of stability and demand in the labour market. Critical consideration of the burden of the health and socio-economic crisis and paying particular attention to the gender dimension can improve understanding and direct our efforts during the pandemic. This is precisely why it is believed that the construction of gender-responsive national policies and practices will ensure equal and visible opportunities when it comes to public health during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Čvorović, M., & Beriša, H. (2023). The Gender Dimension of Vulnerability in Disaster Caused by the Corona Virus (Covid-19). Nauka, bezbednost i policija, 28 (2), 32–54
Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction from Fires: A Literature Review
Abstract: All over the world, different types of fires do not cease to cause serious material and non-material consequences, forcing people and their institutions to design and implement various preventive (construction, mechanical, electrical, architectural, etc.) measures to mitigate the risk of such events. Using an integrated disaster risk reduction approach ensures a higher level of efficiency in mitigating the likelihood and consequences of future fires. The subject of the paper is a comprehensive analysis and description of various preventive fire protection measures, fire protection systems concerning equipment, education programs in the field of fire protection and training of citizens, preparedness for response as well as tactical elements for effective response in disasters caused by fires. To carry out a review of the literature on the integrated reduction of the risk of disasters caused by fires, a historical and comparative method were used, as well as a content analysis method. The results of the literature review can be used to improve the reduction of the risk of disasters caused by fires in Serbia.
Conclusion: Improving the level of fire safety is a complex issue that requires a comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach. In addition to a high level of professional commitment, the absolute and total support of society is also needed, as well as serious and unequivocal political commitment. In order to improve the level of fire safety in the country, the “top-down” approach must be changed. In other words, to achieve this goal, one must first start with changes at the individual level. For the country to be able to respond to the challenges, risks, and threats it faces, it should follow examples of good practices from around the world and apply them per the needs and capabilities of the country. With this aim, many international organizations and platforms have been established that provide the exchange of information, experiences, knowledge, and practices in the field of fire protection. In addition to monitoring the implementation of the law on fire protection, normative and technical standards, regulations, and plans, it is necessary to work on improving the technical equipment of the fire rescue service, as well as the professional competencies of members of those services. The first step in building an effective protection and rescue system is the introduction of subjects related to fire safety in educational institutions. Through curricular and extracurricular activities, it is necessary for children to be introduced to protection measures and ways of implementing these measures in everyday life, both for personal protection and because of their tendency to pass on the acquired knowledge to their family members, thereby providing indirect education. The community, and especially the family, as the basic unit of society, has a significant role when it comes to adopting a safety culture. In Serbia, it is necessary to continue improving legal and by-law regulations, as well as the level of control over the implementation of legal norms. In addition, it is necessary to implement innovative preventive measures as soon as possible so that the development of the protection and rescue system in emergency situations caused by fires is at the same level as technological and social development.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Protić, D., Stefanović, D. (2023). Integrisano smanјenјe rizika od katastrofa izazvanih požarima: pregled literature. Diplomatija i Bezbednost, 6 (2), 11-80.
Investigating students attitudes and preferences towards disaster learning multimedia to enhance preparedness
Abstract: This paper presents quantitative research results regarding students’ attitudes and preferences towards disaster learning multimedia to enhance preparedness. The research was conducted during February and March 2021, where the respondents’ answers were collected by sending an online survey questionnaire electronically to the email addresses of high schools. The general hypothesis refers to verifying the claim that the application of multimedia in children’s education in schools about disasters ensures that students are acquainted with disasters and develop skills for safety and risk management in case of disasters. The regression model within the conducted research confirmed that the education of students through multimedia has the most significant impact on safety and risk management in disasters. Future directions of research in this field should move towards the analysis of different simulation models that can be of great help to acquaint students with the dangers arising from disasters. Given that simulation has proven to be an effective tool in acquiring knowledge, their application in educating students about disasters would inevitably have significant effects. Ovaj rad predstavlјa rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja u vezi sa stavovima i preferencijama učenika prema multimedijalnom učenju o katastrofama kako bi se pobolјšala spremnost.
Conclusion: The regression model within the conducted research confirmed that the education of students through multimedia has a significant impact on safety and risk management in disasters. When it comes to educating students about disasters, the most effective method is learning through multimedia and using simulations to depict actual events within multimedia content. These findings support the hypotheses of this paper and the achieved goal of the research. Based on this, it can be concluded that the application of multimedia in student education significantly reduces the risk of disasters, primarily through risk management by understanding the ways and methods of preventive and safety actions in such situations. The contribution of the research is reflected in the importance of learning about disasters for adequate response and safety actions due to their occurrence, thereby reducing the negative consequences of disasters. Introducing students to some basics of disasters, the dangers they bring, practical experiences, and evacuation routes as ways out of such situations is the only way to reduce the risks of disasters and teach them to behave in such emergencies. This research confirmed the impact of multimedia learning on disasters as an effective way to transfer knowledge through videos and simulations. Further research can explore specific learning programs for high school students, which were the subject of this research, as well as creating simulation models of behavior in case of different types of disasters. Future research should focus on analyzing different simulation models that can be of great help in acquainting students with the dangers arising from disasters. Given that simulation has proven to be an effective tool in the acquisition of knowledge, its application in educating students about disasters would inevitably have significant effects. Additionally, progress in improving knowledge about disasters can be implemented within school programs, where a particular subject would be introduced that deals with the study of content related to this issue. By showing the content through multimedia, students would be faced with real situations and the harmful effects of disasters and instructed on how to react adequately and act in such situations.
Addition: The research was conducted during February and March 2021, and the responses of the participants were collected by sending an online survey questionnaire electronically to the email addresses of high schools. The research sample included 376 students. The research was directed towards a large number of high schools in the territory of the Republic of Serbia. However, due to the low response rate, the research covered 25 high schools, which accounts for about 5% of the total number of high schools educating children in the territory of the Republic of Serbia. The highest number of students who responded to the research came from the following schools: Aviation Academy and Sports Gymnasium from Belgrade, Technical School “Ivan Sarić” and Chemical-Technological School from Subotica, Technical School from Vlasotince, and Technical School from Užice. The survey questionnaire consisted of two segments. The first segment related to general questions about the students. In this segment, the respondents provided general information related to gender, age, the education level of their father and mother, and who constitutes the household they live in. Additionally, this segment gathered information on the extent to which they are familiar with various disasters and through which sources they mostly obtain information about them. The questions also addressed whether they learn about disasters through studying other subjects in school and if they would prefer to have a subject exclusively dedicated to analyzing and learning about disasters. Further questions gathered information on whether the school collaborates with specific professional institutions regarding the improvement of knowledge in the field of disasters, as well as whether the students’ parents are involved in this process. Respondents indicated whether members of their families had participated in any disasters. The general hypothesis pertains to verifying the claim that the application of multimedia in educating children in schools about disasters ensures that students are familiar with disasters and develop skills for safety and risk management in case of disasters. The regression model within the conducted research confirmed that educating students through multimedia has the most significant impact on safety and risk management in disasters. When it comes to the effect of educating students about disasters, the greatest impact is achieved through learning via multimedia and using simulations to depict real events within multimedia content. These statements prove the hypotheses of this paper and the achieved goal of the research. Based on this, it can be concluded that the application of multimedia in student education significantly reduces the risk of disasters, primarily through risk management by knowing the ways and methods of preventive and safety action in such situations. The contribution of the research is reflected in confirming the importance of learning about disasters for adequate response and safety action due to their occurrence, primarily among children, and thus reducing the negative consequences of disasters. Introducing students to some basics of disasters, the dangers they bring, practical experiences, and evacuation routes as ways out of such situations is the only way to reduce the risks of disasters and teach them to behave in such emergencies. Future directions of research in this field should move towards the analysis of different simulation models that can be of great help to acquaint students with the dangers arising from disasters. Given that simulation has proven to be an effective tool in the acquisition of knowledge, its application in educating students about disasters would inevitably have significant effects. Also, progress in improving knowledge about disasters can be implemented within school programs, where a particular subject would be introduced that would deal with the study of content related to this issue. By showing the content through multimedia, students would be faced with real situations and the harmful effects of disasters, and instructed on how to react adequately and act in such situations.
Reference – Krnjić, I., & Cvetković, V. (2021). Investigating students attitudes and preferences towards disaster learning multimedia to enhance preparedness. Bulletin of the Serbian geographical society, 101(2) 79-96.
Uloga društvenih mreža u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa: studija slučaja Beograd (The role of social networks in disaster risk reduction: a case study Belgrade)
Abstract: Starting from the decision theory that explains the ways of decision-making, the subject of research is to examine the role and importance of social networks in different phases of integrated risk management (mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery) from disasters in the Republic of Serbia. Using the multi-stage random sampling method, 143 adult citizens in the city of Belgrade were surveyed. From the rich treasury of data obtained, the survey results show that one third of respondents would pass on information about disasters even if they are not sure whether such information is accurate or true, which can cause serious implications in disaster risk management. The conducted research opens new research questions and actualizes various thematic frameworks within which all dimensions and factors influencing the use of social networks i n the process of disaster management, i.e. processes of direct or indirect disaster risk reduction, should be examined in more detail. The implications of the research are very important, starting from the fact that decision-makers in Serbia must pay special attention to the accelerating industrialization and development of modern technologies that can be used to save more lives in a shorter period.
Conclusion: Research on the role of social networks in disaster risk reduction will continue to be a focus of academic circles, given the undeniable fact that people are spending more and more time in the virtual space. Considering the significance of the virtual space in the context of its potential for integrated disaster risk reduction, the study has revealed numerous facts that could significantly change existing views of scientists regarding the necessity of using social networks in all phases of disaster management, such as preparation, mitigation, response, and recovery. Generally speaking, in the preparation phase for disasters, social networks can be used for the following: dissemination of information about various natural and technical-technological risks that threaten people and their property; 2) familiarizing people with procedures, tactics, and necessary equipment for survival and minimizing the consequences of such events; 3) raising citizens’ awareness of the relevance of such measures and their immeasurable value for improving and facilitating recovery from various disasters; 4) issuing certain warnings about the characteristics and type of impending danger and ways to avoid severe and irreparable consequences, etc. In the response phase, emergency rescue services such as the police, fire rescue units, and emergency medical services can use social networks as a service to facilitate the implementation of certain operational-tactical and technical measures aimed at efficiently rescuing a large number of people, as well as mitigating the consequences on their material goods and the environment. For example, by using certain wireless drones, it is possible to establish a wireless internet network that will enable the population to connect and share various data about the damage, as well as the current situation on the ground to record and document everything that exists. In addition, certain developed applications greatly facilitate the identification and search of terrain to locate injured people. Thus, the examples of using social networks for these purposes vary, and are limited only by the technical capabilities and intellectual abilities of disaster risk managers. The conducted research opens new research questions and actualizes diverse thematic frameworks within which it is necessary to examine further all dimensions and factors influencing the use of social networks in the disaster management process, i.e., processes of direct or indirect disaster risk reduction. The implications of the research are very significant, starting from the fact that decision-makers in Serbia must pay special attention to the rapid industrialization and development of modern technologies that can be used to save a larger number of lives in a shorter period. The limitations of the conducted research are reflected in the fact that it does not cover the entire geographic area of the Republic of Serbia and that the survey questionnaire needs to include more specific dimensions to best understand the exploratory nature of the research from a holistic perspective.
Apstrakt: Polazeći od teorije odlučivanja, koja objašnjava načine donošenja odluka, predmet istraživanja pred stavlјa ispitivanje uloge i značaja društvenih mreža u razli čitim fazama integrisanog upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa (ublažavanje, pripremlјenost, odgovor, oporavak) u Republici Srbiji. Metodom višeetapnog slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirana su 143 punoletna građanina na području grada Beograda. Iz bogate riznice dobijenih podataka, rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi jedna trećina ispitanika prosledila informacije u vezi s katastrofama čak iako nije sigurna da su takve informa ci je tačne odnosno istinite, što može prouzrokovati ozbilјne implikacije u procesu upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa. Sprovedeno istraživanje otvara nova istraživačka pitanja i aktuelizuje raznovrsne tematske okvire unutar kojih bi trebalo detalјnije preispitati sve dimenzije i faktore koji utiču na korišćenje društvenih mreža u procesu upravlјanja u katastrofama, odnosno procesima direktnog ili indirektnog smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Implikacije istraživanja su vrlo značajne, polazeći od toga da donosioci odluka u Srbiji moraju posebnu pažnju posvetiti sve bržoj industrijalizaciji i razvoju savremenih tehnologija koje se mogu koristiti kako bi se ve ći broj života lјudi spasao u kraćem periodu.
Zaključak: Istraživanje uloge društvenih mreža u procesu smanjenja rizika od katastrofa još dugo će biti u fokusu akademskih krugova imajući u vidu neosporne činjenice da ljudi sve više vremena provode u virtuelnom prostoru. Razmatrajući značaj virtuelnog prostora u kontekstu njegovih mogućnosti za integrisano smanjenje rizika od katastrofa, u radu se došlo do velikog broja činjenica koje umnogome mogu promeniti postojeća gledišta naučnika o neophodnosti korišćenja društvenih mreža u svim fazama upravljanja u katastrofama, kao što su priprema, ublažavanje, odgovor i oporavak. Generalno govoreći, u pripremnoj fazi za katastrofe društvene mreže mogu biti iskorišćene za sledeće: diseminaciju informacija o različitim prirodnim i tehničko-tehnološkim rizicima koji ugrožavaju ljude i njihovu imovinu; 2) upoznavanje ljudi sa procedurama, taktikama i neophodnom opremom za preživljavanje odnosno minimizaciju posledica takvih događaja; 3) podizanje nivoa svesti građana o relevantnosti takvih mera i njihovoj nemerljivoj vrednosti za unapređenje i olakšavanje oporavka od različitih katastrofa; 4) izdavanje određenih upozorenja o karakteristikama i vrsti nadolazeće opasnosti i načinima izbegavanja teških i nenadoknadivih posledica itd. U fazi odgovora, interventno-spasilačke službe kao što su policija, vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice i služba hitne medicinske pomoći mogu koristiti društvene mreže kao svojevrsni servis koji će olakšati preduzimanje određenih operativno-taktičkih i tehničkih mera usmerenih ka efikasnom spasavanju velikog broja ljudi, kao i ublažavanje posledica na njihova materijalna dobra i životnu sredinu. Primera radi, korišćenjem određenih bežičnih dronova moguće je uspostaviti bežičnu internet mrežu koja će omogućiti stanovništvu da se poveže i da prosleđuje različite podatke o šteti, ali i o aktuelnoj trenutnoj situaciji na terenu kako bi se zabeležilo i dokumentovalo sve što postoji. Pored toga, postoje određene razvijene aplikacije koje umnogome olakšavaju identifikaciju i pretragu terena u cilju pronalaska povređenih ljudi. Dakle, primeri korišćenja društvenih mreža u ove svrhe su zaista različiti, a ograničeni su tehničkim mogućnostima i intelektualnim sposobnostima menadžera rizika od katastrofa. Sprovedeno istraživanje otvara nova istraživačka pitanja i aktuelizuje raznovrsne tematske okvire unutar kojih bi trebalo detaljnije preispitati sve dimenzije i faktore koji utiču na korišćenje društvenih mreža u procesu upravljanja u katastrofama, odnosno procesima direktnog ili indirektnog smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Implikacije istraživanja su vrlo značajne, polazeći od toga da donosioci odluka u Srbiji moraju posebnu pažnju posvetiti sve bržoj industrijalizaciji i razvoju savremenih tehnologija koje se mogu koristiti kako bi se veći broj života ljudi spasao u kraćem periodu. Ograničenja sprovedenog istraživanja ogledaju se u činjenici da njime nije obuhvaćen celokupan geoprostor Republike Srbije, kao i da je u anketni upitnik potrebno dodati još određenije dimenzije kako bi se eksplorativna priroda istraživanja sagledala na najbolji mogući način, iz holističke perspektive.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Nikolić, M. (2021). Uloga društvenih mreža u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa: studija slučaja Beograd. Bezbednost, 61(3), 25-42.
Ugroženost žena od posledica prirodno izazvanih katastrofa: studija slučaja Svilajnac (Vulnerability of women to the consequences of naturally caused disasters: the Svilajnac case study)
Apstrakt: Ugroženost građana od katastrofa rezultat je kako fizičkih tako i društvenih faktora. Studije istraživanja roda u katastrofama počivaju na činjenici da je rod primarni princip organizovanja društva i verovanju da se rodna dimenzija mora uzeti u obzir ako želimo da steknemo uvid u položaj svih ljudi koji žive u sredinama podložnim uticaju prirodnih opasnosti. Cilj istraživanja predstavljaju naučna deskripcija i eksplikacija rodne dimenzije ugroženosti građana opštine Svilajnac usled prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama 2014. godine. Korišćenjem slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirano je sto petnaest građana iz opštine Svilajnac. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je većina ispitanika bila direktno ugrožena destruktivnim posledicama poplavnih rizika. Međutim, istražene rodne razlike pokazale su da su žene samo psihološki ugroženije od muškaraca, s obzirom da je veći procenat žena izrazio osećaj straha i brige tokom poplava. Ovaj rad doprinosi već postojećoj rodnoj literaturi iz oblasti katastrofa, te omogućava bolje razumevanje različitih i rodno ustoličenih posledica prirodnih katastrofa na centralnom Balkanu koje se mogu iskoristiti za kreiranje rodno senzitivnih politika i strategija upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa.
Abstract: Citizens’ vulnerability to disaster is a function of both physical and social factors. Gendered disaster social science rests on the social fact of gender as a primary organizing principle of societies and the conviction that gender must be addressed if we are to claim knowledge about all people living in environments susceptible to natural hazards. The main goal of the research is scientific description and explication of gender dimension of citizens’ vulnerability to natural disasters caused by floods in Svilajnac municipality in 2014. One hundred fifteen citizens from Svilajnac were interviewed using multi-pass random sampling. We draw on social vulnerability theory to understand the ways in which such events are perceived and managed by citizens of different gender. Descriptive statistical analysis and chi-square test were employed to compare actual impacts. This study revealed that majority of the people felt directly threatened by the destructive consequences of flood hazards. All gendered impacts reported were not statistically significant, except for the psychological dimension of vulnerability because women tend to be more afraid and express more worry during floods. This paper contributes to the gender-focused literature that aims to provide a regional understanding of the differential and gendered consequences of natural disasters on men and women in the central Balkans. Results of this research can be used for improving gender-responsive national plans and strategies for disaster risk reduction.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Svrdlin, M. (2020). Ugroženost žena od posledica prirodno izazvanih katastrofa: studija slučaja Svilajnac. Bezbednost, 62(3), 43-61.
Examination of the factors that influence public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions (Ispitivanje faktora uticaja na percepciju javnosti o mitski zasnovanom ponašanju ljudi u uslovima katastrofa)
Abstract: Starting from the importance of risk perception for taking certain preventive measures to protect people and their property from disasters, the subject of the research is to examine the factors influencing public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions. Using the random sampling method, 250 adult respondents were surveyed in the city of Belgrade, using a specially created and adapted survey questionnaire. The results of the research show that there is no statistically significant influence of gender, age, educational and economic factors on the public perception of human behavior in disaster conditions. The results of the research can be used to improve strategies and campaigns based on risk assessment, aimed at improving the safety of people in disasters.
Conclusion: Examining the factors that influence the public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions, preconditions have been created for further improvement of the theoretical and empirical fund of scientific knowledge about human behavior in such situations. Myths about human behavior in disaster conditions are a topic that hasn’t been sufficiently addressed, and there are several scientific papers in the scientific literature which give an overview of the most current myths about human behavior and reactions of certain services during disasters. Because the consequences of mythically-based human behavior are unfavorable for the entire system of protection and rescue of the people of the Republic of Serbia, it’s necessary to pay more attention to this topic starting from its establishment, organization, efficient functioning and training, for the need to organize effective disaster protection, because the fact is, many disasters can’t be avoided, but their consequences can be significantly reduced. People’s awareness in the field of disasters is at a low level in the Republic of Serbia, so it’s necessary to provide continuous education. This time, they must be allies and help educate people to raise their level of awareness of undesirable behaviors during disasters and ways to eradicate them. In the future, people should acquire basic knowledge in the field of disasters, because it would help them in their daily functioning. If manuals or reminders for dealing with disasters would be in visible places in companies, and if there would be constant education and valorization of employees’ knowledge, it’s assumed that the level of knowledge about disasters would be satisfactory, therefore people’s behavior in disaster conditions would be supported by scientific facts.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Jovanović, M. (2020). Examination of the factors that influence public perception of mythically-based human behavior in disaster conditions. Glasnik Srpskog geografskog društva, 100(2), 161-179.
Percepcija javnosti o pripremljenosti za biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama: implikacije na proces upravljanja rizicima (Perception of preparedness for biosphere disaster caused by epidemics: implications for risk management process)
Apstrakt: Biosferske katastrofe među kojima su na prvom mestu epidemije, predstavljaju ozbiljnu pretnju bezbednosti ljudi. Polazeći od ozbiljnosti i karakteristika katastrofa izazvanih epidemijama, predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje prirode uticaja ličnih i društvenih faktora na percepciju javnosti o pripremljenosti za reagovanje na biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama. Korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorkovanja anketirano je dve hiljade i petsto građana sa područja devetnaest lokalnih zajednica. Sudeći prema dobijenim rezultatima, utvrđeno je da je nivo pripremljenosti građana nizak i da su u većoj meri pripremljeni muškarci, obrazovaniji građani, nezaposleni i oni koji osećaju strah. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za kreiranje edukativnih kampanja usmerenih ka podizanju nivoa svesti i pripremljenosti građana. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, percepcija, epidemije, pripremljenost, upravljanje rizicima, Srbija.
Zaključak: Iako su se građani Srbije u prošlosti više puta suočavali sa posledicama raznih epidemija, rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je samo nešto manje od polovine ispitanika edukovano po pitanju epidemija. Nedostatak svesti i znanja građana o epidemijama može dodatno zakomplikovati upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, počevši od toga da građani ne znaju koje preventivne mere da preduzmu od trenutka dobijanja informacije o širenju zarazne bolesti. Posebnu zabrinutost izaziva činjenica da je jedna trećina građana apsolutno nespremna da adekvatno odgovori na neki takav događaj. Adekvatna spremnost građana da odgovore na takve događaje može znatno smanjiti posledice po život i zdravlje ljudi. Jedan od najvažnijih elemenata spremnosti građana za reagovanje je znanje o epidemijama i pravom načinu da se odreaguje.
Studija je pokazala da je znanje građana o epidemijama pod uticajem brojnih personalnih i sredinskih faktora. Međutim, podatak da li je neko bio volonter ili ima regulisan vojni status nema uticaja na znanje ove oblasti. Nivo znanja građana o epidemijama takođe je različito zbog karakteristika samih građana. Na primer, veći nivo znanja o epidemijama imaju građani koji su žene, univerzitetski obrazovani/obrazovane ili visoko obrazovani/obrazovane sa odličnim uspehom, oženjeni/udati, bez invaliditeta, zaposleni, imaju prihode preko 75.000 dinara, osećaju strah i imaju prethodno iskustvo, čije majke i očevi nisu završili osnovnu školu. S druge strane, rezultati pokazuju da je nivo spremnosti građana da odreaguju na nižem nivou nego što se očekivalo. Spremniji da odgovore jesu građani koji su: muškarci, univerzitetski obrazovani, veoma dobri studenti sa prihodima preko 75.000 dinara, u vezama, a da pritome nisu roditelji, koji se brinu o invalidima, nezaposleni i da osećaju strah, čije su majke i očevi završili postdiplomske studije. Pored spremnosti građana za reagovanje, bitno je posedovanje određenih zaliha koje bi ublažile efekte vanrednih situacija izazvanih epidemijama. Utvrđeno je da samo polovina ispitanika poseduje komplet za prvu pomoć, i ovo upozorava da bi to moglo imati negativan uticaj na samo-spašavanje ili samo-zaštitu građana od posledica epidemije.
Polazeći od prikazanih rezultata istraživanja, neophodno je da se osmisle kampanje i programi u cilju poboljšanja znanja ljudi, univerzitetski neobrazovanih građana, građana koji nisu završili srednju školu sa odličnim uspehom, neoženjenih/neudatih, nezaposlenih, onih koji nemaju prihode iznad 75.000 dinara, koji ne osećaju strah i nemaju nikakvo prethodno iskustvo. Znanje građana može se poboljšati kroz obrazovne televizijske programe ili radio-emisije koje bi obavestile građane o potencijalnim epidemijama i njihovim posledicama, načinima delovanja i modalitetima lične i porodične zaštite.
Abstract: Biospheric disasters, among them the first place of the epidemic, pose a serious threat to human security. Starting from the seriousness and characteristic of disasters caused by epidemics, the subject of research is the examination of the nature of the impact of personal and social factors on the perception of the public on the preparedness to respond to biospheric disasters caused by epidemics. Two thousand and five hundred citizens from the area of nineteen local communities were interviewed using multi-pass random sampling. According to the obtained results, it was determined that the level of preparedness of the citizens is at a low level and that they are more prepared men, more educated citizens, the unemployed and those who feel fear. The results of the research can be used to create educational campaigns aimed at raising the level of awareness and preparation of citizens. Keywords: natural disasters, perception, epidemics, preparedness, risk management, Serbia.
Conclusion: Although the citizens of Serbia have faced the consequences of various epidemics multiple times in the past, research results show that only slightly less than half of the respondents are educated about epidemics. The lack of awareness and knowledge among citizens about epidemics can further complicate risk management in emergency situations, starting with the fact that citizens do not know which preventive measures to take from the moment they receive information about the spread of an infectious disease. A particular concern is the fact that one-third of citizens are absolutely unprepared to respond adequately to such an event. Adequate preparedness of citizens to respond to such events can significantly reduce the consequences for the life and health of people. One of the most important elements of citizens’ preparedness for response is knowledge about epidemics and the correct way to react. The study showed that citizens’ knowledge about epidemics is influenced by numerous personal and environmental factors. However, whether someone has been a volunteer or has regulated military status does not impact their knowledge in this area. The level of citizens’ knowledge about epidemics also varies due to the characteristics of the citizens themselves. For example, a higher level of knowledge about epidemics is found among citizens who are women, university-educated, or highly educated with excellent grades, married, without disabilities, employed, have an income over 75,000 dinars, feel fear and have previous experience, whose mothers and fathers did not finish elementary school. On the other hand, the results show that the level of citizens’ preparedness to react is lower than expected. Those more prepared to respond are citizens who are men, university-educated, very good students with incomes over 75,000 dinars, in relationships but not parents, who care for people with disabilities, unemployed, feel fear, and whose mothers and fathers completed postgraduate studies. Besides citizens’ preparedness for response, it is essential to have certain supplies that would mitigate the effects of emergencies caused by epidemics. It has been found that only half of the respondents have a first aid kit, which warns that this could negatively impact the self-rescue or self-protection of citizens from the consequences of an epidemic. Based on the presented research results, it is necessary to design campaigns and programs aimed at improving the knowledge of people, particularly university uneducated citizens, citizens who did not finish high school with excellent grades, unmarried citizens, the unemployed, those who do not have incomes above 75,000 dinars, those who do not feel fear and have no prior experience. Citizens’ knowledge can be improved through educational television programs or radio broadcasts that would inform citizens about potential epidemics and their consequences, ways of acting, and modalities of personal and family protection.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2018). Percepcija javnosti o pripremljenosti za biosferske katastrofe izazvane epidemijama: implikacije na proces upravljanja rizicima. Bezbednost, 60(3), 5-25.
Human Resource Management in Environmental Protection in Serbia
Starting from the fact that the units of local self-government of the Republic of Serbia are not sufficiently oriented towards innovations related to human resources and the environment, the application of quantitative research tradition examines the positioning and understanding of certain procedures and decisions of human resources management regarding the functioning of the environmental protection system, on the one hand, and future strategies for changing the given system, on the other. A series of 105 face-to-face interviews were conducted during the year of 2016 in 105 of the 191 municipalities in the Republic of Serbia. Examination of the attitudes of the local self-government was carried out using a specially designed closed electronic questionnaire. The results of the multivariate regressions show that the most important predictor of the possible improvement of the environment is the size of the municipality. The remaining variables (e.g., human resources policy, human resources service) did not have significant effects on the ability to improve the environment. In more than half of local self-governments, there was no clearly defined human resources strategy in the field of environmental protection, an environmental protection service, an Environmental Action Plan, as well as an employment plan for waste management in local governments, etc. The research has shown that top managers of local governments agree that the management of human resources in environmental protection represents a significant opportunity to improve the quality of the environment. The results of the research can be used to improve the organization of human resource competence in environmental protection and the quality of a working and sustainable environment in the area of local self-government.
Conclusion: The management of human resources in environmental protection is the management of local self-government activities, used to alleviate or completely eliminate external environmental impacts and to support the improvement of the quality level and the creation of sustainable development with people as the most important factor. That is precisely the reason why human resources management is upgraded to an educational one, that is, the dimension that teaches how every local government employee and each individual will give their maximum, how to initiate motivation factors for environmental benefits, how to rationally use natural resources, reduce pollution, manage actions to achieve the level of sustainability of manipulation of natural resources and waste, etc. The concluding views perceived by this research unambiguously speak about the need for management-access to human resources in the service of the environment. Transforming the human resources of local self-government units in accordance with the symbiotic ecological, social, and economic development, and within the real constraints of these local self-governments, a new, better quality and more effective working and living environment is created. Human resource planning implies a clear definition of hierarchy and the level of employee responsibility. It also involves defining the necessary human resources on the basis of the adopted environmental protection strategy based on sustainable development and, consequently, the analysis of the tasks to be performed. It is necessary to strengthen the local self-government with human resources engaged in the tasks of implantation of laws and by-laws related to environmental protection and the orientation of the Republic of Serbia towards the EU. Harmonization of regulations in this area with EU requirements is not easy. This, in addition to the normative work at the level of the line ministry and the revision of the complete legislative framework in line with EU regulations, implies an adequate local-professional platform. Depending on the size and capabilities of the local government units, it is necessary to plan a work plan intended for normative-legal affairs in the field of environmental protection or better training of the existing staff of the legal profession for performing these tasks. It is necessary to present a clear description of the work of employees in environmental protection, which must include: the exact job title; compulsory qualifications (knowledge, skills, experience, and preferences); belonging to the department or sector (a large number of local self-government units do not have a department for environmental protection); hierarchy (superior and subordinate to the defined position); defining internal and external collaborators to preserve the environment; defining responsibilities; and the time dimension of employment. Bearing in mind the current practice in the Republic of Serbia, in the affairs of environmental protection in a large number of local self-governments, there are no professionals. The knowledge of such human resources is not adequate or sufficient for the adequate implementation of a sustainable development strategy. The Law on Labor Relations in State Authorities does not regulate the basic internal training of employees in local self-government units. Capacity building of human resources cannot be realized without professional training. Apart from strengthening individuals, the quality and success of local self-government are also strengthened. Additional ecological education is also necessary due to previous failures in the value system of the unit of local self-government where the environment was neglected. A significant number of employees until a decade ago were not interested in preserving the environment, let alone imperative. Since the local self-government is a team that contributes to the quality of life of its citizens and their environment, each employee must have wider knowledge in the field of ecology. It would be desirable to establish a Service for assessing the necessary competencies if not at the local level, then at the district level. This would, to a certain extent, motivate the employees to make an effort because at the district level the performance of the employees in the field of environmental protection of one JLS with the rest would be compared. The limitation of the conducted research represented extremely large differences in the size of local self-government units. In future research, it is necessary to evaluate the results and significance of the implementation of the proposed strategic concept in the form of a human resource management model for the protection of the environment of local self-governments.
Reference – Nikolić, N., Cvetković, V., & Zečević, M. (2019). Human Resource Management in Environmental Protection in Serbia. Bulletin of the Serbian Geographical Society, 100(1), 51-72.
Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama (Barriers to improvement preparedness for responding to natural disasters)
Apstrakt: U radu koji predstavlja kvantitativno istraživanje izneti su rezultati ispitivanja koji se odnose na prepreke unapređenju mera spremnosti za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji. Tom prilikom, primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 20,5% ispitanika misli da će im interventno-spasilačke službe pomoći, pa im mere spremnosti za reagovanje nisuni potrebne; 31,7% ispitanika ne smatra da su ugroženi ili da je njihovo domaćinstvo ugroženo od posledica katastrofa; 20,9% ispitanika ističe da nema vremena za to; 23,1% ispitanika misli da je preduzimanje tih mera veoma skupo; 19,4% smatra da nije sposobno za tako nešto; 22,8% ističe da nema podršku lokalne zajednice; 27% ističe da ne mogu sprečiti posledice prirodnih katastrofa ni na koji način. Rezultati inferencijalne statistike uticaja pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta, prethodnog iskustva i vojne obaveze pokazuju raznovrsne rezultate u pogledu njihove statističke povezanosti sa preprekama koje se odnose na spremnost za reagovanje.. Značaj sprovedenog istraživanja ogleda se u unapređenju teorijskog i empirijskog fonda znanja o faktorima koji utiču na nizak nivo spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju modela unapređenja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, barijere, reagovanje, pol, roditeljstvo, zaposlenost, invaliditet, prethodno iskustvo, vojna obaveza.
Abstract: This paper presents the quantitative research results of the barrier improvement measures of preparedness to respond to natural disasters. The survey was conducted in 2015 in 19 local communities in Serbia. On that occasion, using a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed. Survey results show that 20.5% of respondents thought that his first responders already help him, such measures are not necessary; 31.7% of respondents thinks that himself or his household is not vulnerable from the consequences; 20.9% of respondents said that there is no time for that; 23.1% of respondents think that it is taking these measures very expensive; 19.4% think that it is not capable of such a thing; 22.8% declare that there is no support from the local community; 27% points out that it can not prevent the effects do not in any way. The results of inferential statistics, the influence of sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience and military obligations variety show results in terms of their statistical association with barriers readiness. The significance of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical and empirical stock of knowledge about the factors responsible for the low level of citizens’ readiness to respond to natural disasters. The research results can be used as a starting point in designing a model to improve the readiness of citizens to respond to natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disasters, barriers, response, sex, parenting, employment, disability, previous experience, military service.
Conclusion: In the quantitative research on obstacles to improving citizens’ preparedness for responding to natural disasters, several key findings were made. A significant portion of respondents, 20.5%, believe that emergency rescue services will help them anyway, so they do not see the need for such measures. Additionally, 31.7% do not consider themselves or their households to be at risk from the consequences of floods, while 20.9% state they do not have time to prepare. Furthermore, 23.1% of respondents believe that taking such measures is very expensive, 19.4% feel they are not capable of such actions, and 22.8% state they do not have community support. Notably, 27% believe they cannot prevent the consequences in any way. The study also found statistically significant correlations between several factors and these obstacles. For instance, citizens with previous experience slightly more often believe that emergency rescue services will help them, thus seeing no need for personal measures. Parents and those with previous experience are less likely to consider themselves or their households at risk. Women are more likely than men to state they do not have time for preparedness measures, and those who have served military service are less likely to cite this reason. Unemployed citizens and those with previous experience are more likely to believe that preparedness measures are very expensive. No statistically significant correlation was found between the belief that measures will not affect household safety and any variables. However, those who have not served military service more often feel incapable of taking such measures compared to those who have served. Parents, employed citizens, and those who have served military service are less likely to state they lack community support compared to non-parents, the unemployed, and those who have not served. Lastly, citizens who are not disabled and have not served military service more often believe they cannot prevent the consequences in any way compared to those who are disabled and have served. These findings highlight the need for continued research to examine the various factors influencing preparedness for natural disasters in more detail. Such research will significantly contribute to creating conditions for improving citizens’ preparedness for effective response.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2017). Prepreke unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Vojno delo, 69(2), 132-150
Baze podataka o rizicima i informacioni servisi podrške odlučivanju u vanrednim situacijama (Risk database and management support information services for emergencies)
Prirodne i antropogene vanredne situacije predstavlјaju najozbilјniji scenario ugrožavanja bezbednosti koji uslovlјava upotrebu najsavremenijih informacionih servisa kao i korišćenje svih raspoloživih baza podataka o rizicima. U tom smislu, upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama je danas nezamislivo bez upotrebe različitih onlajn dostupnih servisa koji omogućavaju donosiocima odluka koji učestvuju u tom procesu da u kratkom vremenskom periodu sagledaju sve mogućnosti koje im stoje na raspolaganju. Predmet rada predstavlјa identifikacija, analiza i opis najznačajnijih karakteristika informacionih servisa (Copernicus emergency management servise, geographic information system) i otvorenih baza podataka o rizicima (Global Risk Data Platform, Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment, Natural Disaster Hotspots, Global Hazard Atlas) koji su neophodni za efikasno upravlјanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama. Rezultati preglednog rada mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje znanja osoblјa interventno-spasilačkih službi o raspoloživim mogućnostima upotrebe informacionih servisa i baza podataka. Natural and anthropogenic emergencies represent the most serious scenario of compromising security, which conditions the use of state-of-the-art information services as well as the use of all available risk databases. In this regard, the risk management during emergiencies is unthinkable today without the use of various online services that enable decision-makers involved in the process to look at all the options at their disposal in a short period of time. The subject of the paper is the identification, analysis and description of the most important characteristics of information services (Copernicus emergency management services, a geographic information system) and open databases on risks (Global Risk Data Platform, Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment, Natural Disaster Hotspots, Global Hazard Atlas) for effective risk management in emergencies. The results of the review work can be used to improve the knowledge of first responders about the available possibilities of using information services and databases.
Reference – Cvetković, V. (2018). Baze podataka o rizicima i informacioni servisi podrške odlučivanju u vanrednim situacijama – Risk database and management support information services for emergencies. Paper presented at the Šesto savetovanje upravljanje rizicima, Požarevac, 25-34.
Posledice prirodnih katastrofa: faktori uticaja na percepciju građana Srbije (Consequences of natural disasters: factors of influence on Serbian citizens perception)
Retki su danas događaji koji mogu baciti na kolena čitave lokalne zajednice kao što to čine ekstremne opasnosti poreklom iz prirode prouzrukujući ozbiljne katastrofe. Kao takve, one nanose ozbiljne posledice ljudima i njihovim materijalnim dobrima uprkos organizovanim pokušajima društva da se one ublaže. Preduzimanje preventivnih mera sa ciljem unapređenja zaštite od takvih događaja podrazumeva postojanje jasne svesti ljudi o mogućim posledicama, njihovim razmerama i ozbiljnostima. U vezi sa tim sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje u kojem su ispitani stavovi građana i njihova percepcija o posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Višeetapnim uzorkovanjem, anketnim ispitivanjem je obuhvaćeno oko dve hiljade i petsto građana sa područja devetnaest opština. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je 23% ispitanika doživelo materijalne i 16% ispitanika nematerijalne posledice prirodnih katastrofa. Pri tome, statističke analize pokazuju da na nivo značajnosti od pet procenata na percepciju građana o materijalnim posledicama utiču sve posmatrane promenljive: pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, bračni status, prihodi, obrazovanje oca i majke, zaposlenost, roditeljstvo, dok na percepciju nematerijalnih posledica ne utiču pol, obrazovanje, obrazovanje majke i zaposlenost. Pri tome, upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama naprosto nameće potrebu za kontinuiranim istraživanjima uticaja prirodnih katastrofa na ljude iz čega i proizilazi naučna i društvena opravdanost sprovedenog istraživanja. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, kvantitativno istraživanje, posledice, građani, Srbija. Today its very rare the events that can throw the knee entire local community like extreme hazards originating from the nature causing a serious disaster. As such, they cause serious consequences to people and their material goods despite the organized efforts of society to mitigate them. Preventive measures with the aim of improving the protection of such events implies the existence of a clear awareness of people about the potential consequences of their scale and seriousness. In this regard we have conducted quantitative research which examined the attitudes of citizens and their perception of the consequences of natural disasters. With multistage sampling, a survey has covered about two thousand five hundred of citizens from the area of the nineteen municipalities. The survey results showed that 23% of respondents experienced material and 16% of non-pecuniary consequences of natural disasters. In addition, statistical analysis showed that the significance level of five percent, perception of citizens about the material consequences were affect all observed variables: gender, age, education, marital status, income, education of father and mother, employment, parenting, while the perception of intangible result not affected by gender, education, mother’s education and employment. At the same time, natural disaster management simply imposes the need for continuing research on the impact of natural disasters and people from which it follows scientific and social justification of the research. Keywords: natural disasters, quantitative research, consequences, and citizens of Serbia.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Posledice prirodnih katastrofa: faktori uticaja na percepciju građana Srbije. Ecologica, 24(87), 572-578.
Ispitivanje percepcije rizika o požarima u stambenim objektima: demografski i socio-ekonomski faktori uticaja (Examination of the fire risk perception in residential buildings: the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors)
Požari su oduvek predstavljali ozbiljan izvor ugrožavanja bezbednosti ljudi i njihove imovine. Pored preduzimanja svih preventivno-tehničkih mera i radnji, potrebno je i unaprediti bezbednosnu kulturu ljudi. Iz tih razloga, autori u radu iznose rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije građana o požarima u stambenim objektima na području grada Beograda. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja demografskih i socio-ekonomskih karakteristika građana na nivo percepcije rizika o požarima. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, anketirano je 322 ispitanika u periodu od početka do kraja jula 2017. godine. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je nivo percepcije verovatnoće nastanka požara najniži za period od godinu dana (M=2.12), zatim za period od pet godina (M=2.26), a najviši za period od 10 godina (M=2.35). Ocena individualne pripremljenosti iznosi M=2.77, zatim lokalne zajednice M=2.79 i na kraju države M=3.42. Kada je reč o posledicama, najviše ispitanika ističe da bi im požar mogao prouzrokovati materijalne posledice (M=2.77), zatim povrede (M=2.49) i na kraju gubitak života (2.00) itd. Polazeći od dobijenih rezultata, potrebno je koncipirati strategije i kampanje usmerene ka podizanju nivo pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, požari, građani, percepcija rizika, stambeni objekti. Fires have always been a serious source of endangering the safety of people and their property. In addition to taking all preventive and technical measures and actions, it is also necessary to improve the safety culture of the people. For these reasons, the authors present the results of a quantitative study of citizens’ perceptions of fires in residential buildings in the city of Belgrade. The aim of the research is a scientific explication of the influence of demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens on the level of fire risk perception. Multi-stage random sampling surveyed 322 respondents in the period from the beginning to the end of July 2017. The results of the research show that the level of perception of the probability of fire occurrence is the lowest for one year (M = 2.12), then for five years (M = 2.26), and the highest for 10 years (M = 2.35). The assessment of individual preparedness is M = 2.77, then local communities M = 2.79, and finally the state M = 3.42. When it comes to consequences, most respondents point out that a fire could cause them material consequences (M = 2.77), then injuries (M = 2.49), and finally loss of life (2.00), etc. Starting from the obtained results, it is necessary to conceptualize strategies and campaigns aimed at raising the level of preparedness of citizens to react in such situations. Keywords: security, fires, citizens, risk perception, housing.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2018). Ispitivanje percepcije rizika o požarima u stambenim objektima: demografski i socio-ekonomski faktori uticaja. Vojno delo, 70(5), 82-98.
Ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvodjenju nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u srednjim školama (Examination of students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” in secondary schools)
Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvođenju nastavnog predmeta ,,bezbednosna kultura“ u nastavni plan i program za srednju školu. Pored toga, analiziraju se i uticaji određenih karateristika učenika na njihove pozitivne ili negativne stavove za uvođenje spomenutog predmeta. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu, obuhvaćen je uzorak veličine 3063 učenika iz 14 srednjih škola. Prema dobijenim rezultatima, u najvećoj meri, učenici nisu sigurni da li su za uvođenje predmeta (47,8%). Sa druge strane, 26,2% učenika je odgovorilo da je za uvođenje predmeta, dok je 24,7% dalo negativan odgovor. Takođe, u radu je utvrđeno je da na stavove ispitanika o uvođenju predmeta statistički značajno utiču pol, godine starosti, zaposlenost roditelјa, obrazovanje oca i majke, razred. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni od strane donosioca odluka prilikom koncipiranja strategija i programa uvođenja nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u nastavni plan i program za srednju školu u cilјu i smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, katastrofe, učenici, stavovi, istraživanje. The subject of quantitative research is to examine students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school. In addition, the impacts of certain characteristics of students are analyzed on their positive or negative attitudes about the introduction of the course. From the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade, multiple-point random sampling included a sample of 3063 students from 14 secondary schools. Based on the results, the students are mostly not sure if they have positive attitude towards the introduction of the course (47.8%). On the other hand, 26.2% of students answered that they vote for the introduction of the course, while 24.7% gave a negative answer. Also, it has been found that the attitudes of respondents on the introduction of the course are statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, parental employment, education of father and mother, grade. The research results can be used by the decision-makers when designing strategies and programs for the introduction of the course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school in order to reduce disaster risks. Key words: safety, disasters, students, attitudes, research.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2018). Ispitivanje stavova učenika o uvodjenju nastavnog predmeta bezbednosna kultura u srednjim školama. Kultura polisa, 15(35), 277-286.
Koncept otpornosti na katastrofe (Concept of disaster resilience)
U proteklih nekoliko decenija naučnici iz oblasti društvenih nauka koji su za predmet svog interesovanja imali katastrofe umnogome su doprineli uspostavljanju osnovnih teorija i koncepata neophodnih za proučavanje navedenih pojava. Naučna saznanja iz oblasti katastrofa bila su pravo teorijsko bogatstvo iskorišćeno za unapređenje bezbednosti ljudi od posledica katastrofa. Praksa je pokazala, svako društvo koje je svoju bezbednosnu politiku upravljanja u katastrofama zasnivalo na naučno utemeljenim činjenicama i principima moglo je u velikoj meri da ublaži ili se oporavi od nastalih posledica katastrofa. Iako je u početku istraživanje katastrofa potpadalo u domen sociologije danas ono na različite načine privlači istraživače društvenih i prirodnih nauka i prepoznato je kao multidisciplinarna i primenjena oblast. Polazeći od prethodnih konstatacija, autori u radu sveobuhvatno analiziraju i opisuju teoriju otpornosti. U radu, posebna pažnja se poklanja određenju pojma otpornosti, njegovim modalitetima i karakteristikama – In the past few decades, scientists in the field of social sciences which are for the subject their interest disaster had greatly contributed to the establishment of basic theories and concepts necessary for the study mentioned phenomena. Scientific knowledge in the field of disaster was the right theoretical richness used for improving the safety of people from the disaster. Practice has shown that every society has its security policy of disaster management was based on scientifically based facts and principles it could greatly mitigate or recover from disasters caused. Although initially researching disasters fall within the domain of sociology today what the different ways researchers are attracted to social and natural sciences and is recognized as a multi-disciplinary and applied power. Starting from the previous conclusions, in the work of authors and comprehensive analysis of the theory describing the resilience from the point of theoretical determination. In this paper, special attention is paid to the definition of the concept of resilience, its modalities and characteristics.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2018). Koncept otpornosti na katastrofe. Ecologica, 25(89), 202-207.
Teorijski okvir istraživanja u oblasti katastrofa (Theoretical framework of research in the field of disasters)
Polazeći od negativnog uticaja katastrofa na društvene sisteme u poslednjoj deceniji višestruko je povećan broj naučnih istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa. Pri tome, interdisciplinarnost sprovođenja istraživanja uslovljava primenu teorijskih okvira različitih naučnih disciplina kao što su sociologija, psihologija, geografija itd. Pregledom literature iz oblasti katastrofa, utvrđeno je da istraživači koriste raznovrsne teorijske okvire, kao što su teorija racionalnog izbora, ugroženosti, otpornosti, planiranog ponašanja, simboličkog interakcionizma, pripremljenosti, odlučivanja, sistema, motivaciona zaštitna teorija itd. Polazeći od postojanja većeg broja relevantnih teorijskih okvira za realizaciju istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa, autori u radu najpre identifikuju i sistematizuju, a zatim analiziraju i opisuju teorijske okvire i mogućnosti njihove primene u konkretnim istraživanjima iz oblasti katastrofa. Starting from the negative impact of disasters on social systems, over the last decade, the number of scientific disaster research has been multiplied. Thereby, the interdisciplinary nature of the research implies the application of theoretical frameworks of various scientific disciplines such as sociology, psychology, geography, etc. A review of literature on disasters showed that researchers use a variety of theoretical frameworks, such as the theory of rational choice, vulnerability, resistance, planned behavior, symbolic interactionism, preparedness, decision-making, systems, motivational protection theory, etc. Starting from the existence of a number of relevant theoretical frameworks for research on disasters, the authors first identify and systematize, and then analyze and describe the theoretical frameworks and the possibilities of their application in concrete studies on disasters.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., & Gačić, J. (2018). Teorijski okvir istraživanja u oblasti katastrofa. Ecologica, 25(91), 545-551.
A survey of subjective opinions of population about seismic resistance of residential buildings – Case study of Serbia (Istraživanje subjektivnih mišljenja stanovništva o seizmičkoj otpornosti stambenih zgrada – Studija slučaja Srbije)
The unpredictability and the seriousness of the potential earthquake consequences for people and residential buildings in Serbia imply the need for improving the resilience of local communities. The paper presents the results of a quantitative research regarding the level and factors of influence on the awareness of citizens about the seismic resistance of their residential buildings to earthquake consequences. Multiple-point random sampling was used to survey 1,018 citizens (face to face) during 2017 in 8 local communities: Kraljevo, Lazarevac, Jagodina, Mionica, Prijepolje, Vranje, Lapovo and Kopaonik. The questionnaire consisted of two segments: questions on demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of respondents and questions regarding resistance of residential buildings to earthquake consequences. The results show that 35% of respondents state that they live in residential buildings that are not resistant to earthquakes, while 70.7% state that they live in buildings built of reinforced concrete, which are considered safe. Beside that 9.2% of respondents examined the resistance of their facilities to earthquake consequences. Inferential statistical analyses show that men to a greater extent than women state that their buildings are resistant to earthquake consequences. Starting from the multidimensionality of citizen vulnerability to earthquakes, it is necessary to conduct additional studies and further elucidate the sociological dimension of vulnerability and resilience. Nepredvidivost i ozbiljnost potencijalnih posledica zemljotresa za ljude i stambene zgrade u Srbiji ukazuju na potrebu za poboljšanjem otpornosti lokalnih zajednica. U radu su predstavljeni rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja u vezi sa nivoom i faktori uticaja na svest građana o seizmičkoj otpornosti njihovih stambenih zgrada na posledice zemljotresa. Slučajno uzorkovanje u više tačaka korišćeno je za anketiranje 1.018 građana (licem u lice) tokom 2017. godine u 8 mesnih zajednica: Kraljevo, Lazarevac, Jagodina, Mionica, Prijepolje, Vranje, Lapovo i Kopaonik. Upitnik se sastojao iz dva segmenta: pitanja o demografskim, socio-ekonomskim i psihološkim karakteristikama ispitanika i pitanja u vezi sa otpornošću stambenih zgrada na posledice zemljotresa. Rezultati pokazuju da 35% ispitanika navodi da žive u stambenim zgradama koje nisu otporne na zemljotrese, dok 70,7% navodi da žive u zgradama izgrađenim od armiranog betona, koje se smatraju sigurnim. Pored toga, 9,2% ispitanika ispitalo je otpor njihovih objekata na posledice zemljotresa. Inferencijalne statističke analize pokazuju da muškarci u većoj meri od žena navode da su njihove zgrade otporne na posledice zemljotresa. Polazeći od višedimenzionalnosti ugroženosti građana zemljotresima, neophodno je sprovesti dodatne studije i dalje rasvetliti sociološku dimenziju ranjivosti i otpornosti.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., & Jakovljević, V. (2017). A survey of subjective opinions of population about seismic resistance of residential buildings. J. Geogr. Inst. Cvijic, 67(3), 265-278.
Činioci uticaja na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama (Factors influencing knowledge about natural disasters)
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja činioca uticaja na znanje građana o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Statističkom metodom i metodom iskustvene generalizacije stratifikovane su lokalne zajednice u Republici Srbiji sa u kojima postoiji rizik od nastanka poplava. Na taj način dobijen je stratum, odnosno populacija koju su činili svi punoletni stanovnici lokalnih zajednica i metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih 19 od ukupno 154 u kojima je indikovana ugroženost od poplava. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 77% ispitanika zna šta je poplava kao prirodna katastrofa. Utvrđeno je da na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama statistički značajno utiču sledeći činioci: pol, godine starosti, prihodi, bračni status, percepcija rizika, zaposlenost i strah. Sa druge strane, utvrđeno je da na nivo znanja statistički značajno ne utiče status zaposlenosti građana. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pružaju odgovarajuću empirijsko-teorijsku osnovu za unapređenje znanja građana o prirodnim katastrofama što ujedno smanjuje i njihovu ugroženost od samih posledica takvih događaja. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, činioci, građani, poplave, Srbija. The paper presents the results of quantitative research on the factors influencing the knowledge of citizens about natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. The statistical method and the method of experiential generalization stratified local communities in the Republic of Serbia with which there is a risk of floods. In this way, a stratum was obtained, ie a population consisting of all adult residents of local communities, and 19 of a total of 154 in which flood risk was indicated were selected by random sampling. The results of the research show that 77% of the respondents know what a flood is like as a natural disaster. The following factors were found to have a statistically significant influence on knowledge about natural disasters: gender, age, income, marital status, risk perception, employment and fear. On the other hand, it was found that the level of knowledge is not statistically significantly affected by the employment status of citizens. The obtained research results provide an appropriate empirical-theoretical basis for improving the knowledge of citizens about natural disasters, which also reduces their vulnerability to the very consequences of such events.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Filipović, M., Popović, D., & Ostojić, G. (2017). Činioci uticaja na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama. Ecologica, 24(85), 121-126.
Religiousness level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters caused by flood (Uticaj nivoa religioznosti na pripremljenost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama)
The subject of quantitative research was examination of relationship between the level of religiousness and perception of citizen’s flood disaster preparedness. The aim of such research was a scientific explanation of relationships of these characteristics and the perception. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia, where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, the sample including 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns was randomly selected ,, as well as the city of Belgrade, where 2,500 persons were surveyed in 2015. The research included the following communities: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac and Užice. The research of selected communities was undertaken in the areas which were most affected in relation to the amount of water or potential risk of flooding. The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multistage random sample. The parts in the administrative headquarters, which were threatened by hundred-year-old water or a potential risk of high water were determined in the first stage. In the second stage streets and their parts were established, and in the third stage the households in which the survey was conducted were determined. The number of households was coordinated with the size of the community. The fourth stage of sampling referred to the procedure of respondent selection within previously defined household. The respondent selection was conducted using a random sampling method on the adult household members, who were present at the time of the survey. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation level of religiosity with perception in terms of citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research results can contribute to the improvement of citizens’ preparedness to respond to such events and can be used to develop the enhancement of the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond. Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje odnosa između nivoa religioznosti i percepcije spremnosti građanina za poplavu. Cilj istraživanja predstavlja naučno objašnjenje odnosa ovih karakteristika i percepcije. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji, gde je došlo do poplava ili postoji visok rizik od poplava, slučajno je odabran uzorak koji uključuje 19 od 150 opština i 23 grada, kao i grad Beograd, gde je anketirano 2.500 osoba u 2015. Istraživanjem su obuhvaćene sledeće zajednice: Obrenovac, Šabac, Kruševac, Kragujevac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Svilajnac, Lapovo, Paraćin, Smederevska Palanka, Jaša Tomić, Loznica, Bajina Bašta, Smederevo, Novi Sad, Kraljevo, Rekovac i Užice. Istraživanje odabranih zajednica sprovedeno je u područjima koja su bila najviše pogođena u odnosu na količinu vode ili potencijalni rizik od poplave. Istraživanje je koristilo strategiju testiranja u domaćinstvima uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. U prvoj fazi utvrđeni su delovi u administrativnom sedištu, kojima je pretila stogodišnja voda ili potencijalni rizik od visoke vode. U drugoj fazi su uspostavljene ulice i njihovi delovi, a u trećoj etapi utvrđena su domaćinstva u kojima je sprovedeno istraživanje. Broj domaćinstava je bio usklađen sa veličinom zajednice. Četvrta faza uzorkovanja odnosila se na postupak odabira ispitanika u okviru prethodno definisanog domaćinstva. Izbor ispitanika je izvršen metodom slučajnog uzorkovanja za odrasle članove domaćinstva, koji su bili prisutni u vreme ankete. Rezultati ukazuju na to da postoji statistički značajan nivo korelacije religioznosti i percepcije u smislu spremnosti građana da odgovore. Rezultati istraživanja mogu doprineti poboljšanju spremnosti građana da odgovore na takve događaje i mogu se koristiti za razvoj poboljšanja nivoa spremnosti građana da odgovore.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Babić, S. (2017). Religiousness level and citizen preparedness for natural disasters. Vojno delo, 69(4), 253-262.
Childrens and youths’ knowledge on forest fires: Discrepancies between basic perceptions and reality (Znanje dece i mladih o šumskim požarima: neusklađenost između osnovne percepcije i stvarnosti)
Forests have a vital role for all living things. Children’s understanding of forest phenomena is important knowledge for various sectors as educators, policy makers, environmentalist, etc. In this study, factors that affect knowledge and perception of forest fires of students, aged 10 to 19, in the city of Belgrade were examined. The research was conducted between October 20, 2013, and February 03, 2014. The authors used a method of surveying students in order to identify and describe the factors affecting their knowledge about forest fires. A total of 3,548 students from 18 schools in Belgrade participated in the survey. The results of the research showed that there is a discrepancy between perceptions and reality, what students think they know and what they actually know, and in very basic terms. This set of findings in combination with other findings on moderators replicates previous research on the need for educational programs to ensure there is a match between youth’s confidence about what they know about hazards and their actual knowledge levels. Mismatches between the two could well have serious consequences in disaster risk reduction terms. Given basic knowledge gaps here, this translates into educational programming that then needs to take account for this basic discrepancy to ensure, even from early ages, consistency between “knowledge and coping confidence” and actual knowledge and ability to cope and respond. Šume imaju vitalnu ulogu za sva živa bića. Dečje razumevanje šumskih pojava je važno znanje za različite sektore kao što su edukatori, kreatori politike, ekolog, itd. U ovoj studiji ispitivani su faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju šumskih požara učenika, uzrasta od 10 do 19 godina, u gradu Beogradu. Istraživanje je sprovedeno između 20. oktobra 2013. i 3. februara 2014. Autori su koristili metodu anketiranja učenika kako bi identifikovali i opisali faktore koji utiču na njihovo znanje o šumskim požarima. U anketi je učestvovalo ukupno 3.548 učenika iz 18 škola u Beogradu. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da postoji razlika između percepcije i stvarnosti, onoga što studenti misle da znaju i onoga što zapravo znaju, i to u vrlo osnovnom smislu. Ovaj skup nalaza u kombinaciji sa drugim nalazima o faktorima preslikava prethodna istraživanja o potrebi obrazovnih programa kako bi se osiguralo da postoji podudaranje između poverenja mladih u ono što znaju o opasnostima i njihovog stvarnog nivoa znanja. Neusklađenost između njih mogla bi imati ozbiljne posledice u smislu smanjenja rizika od katastrofe. S obzirom na nedostatke u osnovnom znanju ovde, ovo prelazi u obrazovno programiranje koje zatim treba uzeti u obzir ovo osnovno odstupanje kako bi se osiguralo, čak i od ranog uzrasta, doslednost između „znanja i pouzdanja u suočavanju“ i stvarnog znanja i sposobnosti da se snađe i odgovori.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Giulia, R., Ocal, A., Filipović, M., Janković, B., & Eric, N. (2018). Childrens and youths’ knowledge on forest fires: Discrepancies between basic perceptions and reality. Vojno delo, 70(1), 171-185.
Obuka građana za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama (Citizens’ training for emergency situations)
Od nastanka prvobitnih ljudskih zajednica postojali su organizovani pokušaji da se ublaže odnosno smanje posledice vanrednih situacija. Pri tome, obučavanje ljudi u cilju adekvatnog reagovanja ili preživljavanja takvih događaja oduvek je imalo prioritet u društvenoj zajednici. Polazeći od značaja takvih preventivnih aktivnosti, realizovano je istraživanje stanja obučenosti i zainteresovanosti građana za pohađanjem određenih obuka primenom kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije. Interpretacija dobijenih rezultata pokazuje da je poražavajućih 5,6% građana istaklo da je obučeno za reagovanje, dok je sa druge strane jedna trećina, tačnije 34,8% građana zainteresovano za samu obuku. Pri tome, utvrđeno je da na pohađanja obuke statistički značajno utiče pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, obrazovanje oca i majke, roditeljstvo, prethodno iskustvo, percepcija rizika i zaposlenost ispitanika, dok ne utiče bračni status ispitanika. Naime, veći procenat pohađanja obuke zabeležili su muškarci, zaposleni ispitanici, ispitanici sa prethodnim iskustvom i višim prihodima itd. Na originalnost istraživanja upućuje neispitanost stanja i nivoa obučenosti građana Srbije za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama. Naučni i društveni doprinos istraživanja sastoji se u kreiranju naučnih i praktičnih pretpostavki za uspostavljanje sveobuhvatnog i efikasnog programa obučavanja građana Srbije za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, građani, obuka, reagovanje, Srbija. Since the emergence of the original human communities, there have been organized attempts to mitigate or reduce the consequences of emergencies. At the same time, training people to adequately respond to or survive such events has always been a priority in the community. Starting from the importance of such preventive activities, a research of the state of training and interest of citizens in attending certain training was carried out by applying the quantitative research tradition. Interpretation of the obtained results shows that a devastating 5.6% of citizens pointed out that they were trained to react, while on the other hand one third, more precisely 34.8% of citizens are interested in the training itself. In addition, it was found that training attendance is statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, education, education of father and mother, parenthood, previous experience, risk perception, and employment of respondents, while the marital status of respondents does not affect. Namely, a higher percentage of attending the training was recorded by men, employed respondents, respondents with previous experience and higher income, etc. The originality of the research is indicated by the unexamined state and level of training of Serbian citizens for reacting in emergency situations. The scientific and social contribution of the research consists in creating scientific and practical preconditions for the establishment of a comprehensive and efficient program for training the citizens of Serbia to react in emergency situations. Keywords: security, emergency situations, citizens, training, response, Serbia.
Reference – Cvetković, V., Jakovljević, V., Gačić, J., & Filipović, M. (2017). Obuka građana za reagovanje u vanrednim situacijama Ecologica, 24(88), 856-882.
Ispitavanje stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima (Testing of attitudes and knowledge of students on natural hazards as landslides)
U radu sa kvantitativnim istraživačkim pristupom izneti su rezultati ispitivanja stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima. U istraživanju kojim je obuhvaćeno šest osnovnih škola sa područja Beograda anketirano je 476 učenika. Prema dobijenim rezultatima, utvrđeno je postojanje visokog nivoa znanja (subjektivne i objektivne ocene) o klizištu, kao i da na nivo percepcije o znanju značajno utiču godine starosti i obrazovanje majke. Sa druge strane, utvrđeno je da na nivo stvarnog znanja o klizištu utiču pol i obrazovanost majke. Na svest učenika o pravilnom načinu postupanja za vreme klizišta utvrđeno je da ne utiču pol, godine starosti, uspeh u školi, zaposlenost roditelja, obrazovanost roditelja itd. Polazeći od utvrđenih rezultata, kreatori javnih politika mogu iskoristiti dobijene podatke u cilju osmišljavanja i primene obrazovnih kampanja podizanja svesti i znanja učenika. Ključne reči: prirodne opasnosti, stavovi, škole, anketiranje, klizišta, Beograd. In paper with quantitative research approach are presents the results of tests students’ knowledge and attitudes about natural hazards as landslides. In a study covering six primary schools in Belgrade interviewed 476 students. According to the results, it was found a high level of knowledge (subjective and objective assessments) of the landslide, and that the level of knowledge of perception significantly affected by age and education of mothers. On the other hand, it was found that the level of actual knowledge of the landslide affected by gender and education of the mother. On the awareness of students about the proper course of action during the landslide was found not to affect gender, age, success in school, parents’ employment, education of parents, etc. Starting from the determined result, policy-makers can use the information obtained to design and implement educational campaigns to raise awareness and knowledge of students. Keywords: natural hazards, attitudes, schools, surveys, landslides, Belgrade.
Reference – Cvetković, V., & Miladinović, S. (2017). Ispitavanje stavova i znanja učenika o klizištima kao prirodnim opasnostima. Ecologica, 24(85), 121-126.
Theory of vulnerability and disaster risk reduction (Teorija ugroženosti i smanjenje rizika od katastrofa)
Od prvih sprovedenih istraživanja iz oblasti katastrofa, veliku pažnju istraživača, oduvek je zaokupljivalo pitanje multidimenzionalne prirode ugroženosti ljudi posledicama takvih događaja. Kada su sva relevantna naučna istraživanja pokazala da su uprkos stagnaciji trenda događanja katastrofa u svetu posledice sve ozbiljnije, počela se sredinom sedamdesetih godina razvijati teorija ugroženosti od katastrofa. Upravo tada, pitanje ugroženosti se počinje pojavljivati kao osnovna pretpostavka i ideja za ublažavanje posledica neuobičajenih i nesvakidašnjih događaja kao što su katastrofe. Autori u radu opisuju teoriju ugroženosti od katastrofa, a pri tome posebnu pažnju poklanjaju teorijskom određenju, pristupima i dimenzijama ugroženosti.Since the first conducted research in the field of disasters, the great attention of researchers has always been occupied with the question of the multidimensional nature of human vulnerability to the consequences of such events. When all relevant scientific research showed that despite the stagnation of the trend of catastrophic events in the world, the consequences were becoming more serious, the theory of disaster risk began to develop in the mid-1970s. It is then that the issue of vulnerability begins to emerge as a basic assumption and idea for mitigating the consequences of unusual and unusual events such as disasters. The authors describe the theory of disaster risk, while paying special attention to the theoretical definition, approaches and dimensions of risk. Keywords: safety, disasters, vulnerability, risk, dimensions.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Milašinović, S. (2017). Teorija ugroženosti i smanjenje rizika od katastrofa. Kultura polisa, 14(33), 217-228.
Ispitivanje uloge porodice u edukaciji dece o prirodnim katastrofama (Examination of the family role in education children about disaster)
Efikasno smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa je jedino moguće sprovesti kroz implementaciju integrisanog obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u okviru porodice, škole i lokalne zajednice. Rukovodeći se time, predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje stanja i faktora uticaja na edukaciju učenika o prirodnim katastrofama u okviru porodice. Pored toga, u radu se ispituje i nivo motivisanosti učenika za edukaciju u okviru porodice, ali i i u okviru škole kako bi se sveobuhvatnije sagledali njihovi stavovi u tom pogledu. U realizaciji istraživanja korišćen je višeetapni slučajni uzorak i u prvom koraku je korišćenjem liste svih osnovnih i srednjih škola u Beogradu na slučajan način odabrano njih 18. U drugom koraku, korišćenjem spiskova učionica u kojima se održava nastava, izabrane su učionice i anketirani učenici koji su prisustvovali nastavi. Sa procentom odgovora od 98%, anketirano je 3548 učenika u spomenutom broju osnovnih i srednjih škola. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je 70,7% učenika istaklo da je edukovano u okviru porodice, 57,4% bi želelo da bude edukovano o prirodnim katastrofama, 18% bi želelo da se edukuje u okviru porodice, a 51,9% u okviru škole. Inferencijalne statističke analize pokazuju da na edukaciju u okviru porodice statistički značajno utiču pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje oca i majke, razred pohađanja i prosek u školi. Naučni i društveni značaj istraživanja ogleda se u upostavljanju reprezentativne empirijske osnove koja može poslužiti donosiocima odluka prilikom uspostavljanja integrisanog sistema smanjenja rizika od katastrofa kroz obrazovanje. Effective reduction of risks of natural disasters is only possible through the implementation of integrated education on natural disasters within the family, school and local community. Accordingly, the subject of quantitative research is the examination of the condition and influencing factors on the education of students on natural disasters within the family. In addition, the paper examines the level of students’ motivation for education within the family, but also within the school, in order to more comprehensively review their attitudes in this respect. For the purposes of the research, a multi-point random sample was used and in the first step, using the list of all primary and secondary schools in Belgrade, 18 of them were selected randomly. In the second step, using the lists of classrooms in which classes were held, classrooms were selected and respondents who attended the classes were interviewed. With a high percentage of answers, 3548 students were interviewed in the above mentioned number of primary and secondary schools. The results of the survey show that 70.7% of the students pointed out that they were educated within the family, 57.4% would like to be educated about natural disasters, 18% would like to be educated within the family, and 51.9% within the school. Inferential statistical analyses show that education within the family is statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, father and mother education, grade and school achievement. The scientific and social importance of the research is reflected in the establishment of a representative empirical basis that can serve to decision-makers when establishing an integrated disaster risk reduction system through education.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. M., & Filipović, M. (2018). Ispitivanje uloge porodice u edukaciji dece o prirodnim katastrofama. Nauka, bezbednost, policija, 23(1), 71-85.
Problems of inhabitants of Muktagacha Town in Mymensingh District in terms of urban services important for security in natural disasters
The term urbanization normally connotes a trend in increasing proportion of the national population living in urban centers (towns & cities), as well as an increase in the number of urban centers over a period of time. Thus, it means population shift from rural to urban areas and the ways in which a society adapts to the change. It generally results in the physical growth of urban areas. It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world would be urbanized. An urban area can refer to towns, cities, and suburbs. An urban area includes the city itself, as well as the surrounding areas. Many urban areas are called metropolitan areas. In short, it is a geographical area constituting a city or town, where various urban services like electricity, gas, water supply, health facilities are available. Urban services are necessary transition in provision of facilities provided by urban areas. Generally, it is the responsibility of each country to provide urban facilities to its inhabitants. This study focuses on urban services that people of Muktagachha town in Mymensingh District have enjoyed and the major problems they face while getting urban services, as well. Since Muktagachha town is very close to Mymensingh Sadar the trend of urbanization is increasing here. In fact, it is a well – developed upazila of Mymensingh District. The supply of urban services in this upazillais continuously increasing and the quality of these services tries to increase as stated by the upazilla mayor. However, inhabitants still face various problems in getting urban services. This research is going to discuss what types of problems the inhabitants face and what steps can be taken by the pouro authority to improve the quality of urban services.
Reference – Sultana, O., Cvetković, V., & Kutub, J. (2017). Problems of inhabitants of Muktagacha town in Mymenssingh district in terms of urban services important for security in natural disaster. Vojno delo, 70(1), 112-155.
Spremnost gradjana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Srbiji (Citizens’ readiness to react to natural disasters caused by floods in Serbia)
Kvantitativnim istraživanjem ispitivani su nivo, percepcija i znanje građana u vezi sa spremnošću za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je devetnaest od ukupno 150 opština, 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje se obavilo u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na to da su građani Republike Srbije u izvesnoj meri nespremni za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom, imajući u vidu skor od 10,5. Pri tome, ukupan skor za percepciju spremnosti za reagovanje iznosi 0,9 od ukupno 5, zatim 6,51 od ukupno 13 za znanje i, na kraju, 3,09 od ukupno 15 za posedovanje zaliha. U domaćoj literaturi koja se odnosi na prirodne katastrofe veoma malo pažnje je pridavano spremnosti građana za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Upravo stoga, istraživanje ima visoku naučnu I društvenu opravdanost, imajući u vidu posledice prirodnih katastrofa po ljude i njihova materijalna dobra. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na način na koji treba uticati na građane s obzirom na njihovu percepciju i znanje kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Quantitative research examined the level, perception and knowledge of citizens regarding the readiness to respond to the natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Having in mind all local communities in Serbia in which a flood has occurred or is at high risk, nineteen out of a total of 150 municipalities, 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were selected by random sampling. In selected local communities, the survey was conducted in those parts that were most at risk in terms of water level. In the survey itself, a household survey strategy was applied, using a multi-stage random sample. The results of the research indicate that the citizens of the Republic of Serbia are to some extent unprepared to react to the natural disaster caused by the flood, having in mind the score of 10.5. At the same time, the total score for the perception of readiness to react is 0.9 out of 5, then 6.51 out of 13 for knowledge and, finally, 3.09 out of a total of 15 for owning stocks. In the domestic literature related to natural disasters, very little attention has been paid to the readiness of citizens to react in such situations. Precisely for this reason, the research has a high scientific and social justification, having in mind the consequences of natural disasters on people and their material goods. The results of the research can be used when creating strategies for improving the level of readiness of citizens to react. The research indicates the way in which citizens should be influenced with regard to their perception and knowledge in order to raise readiness to a higher level.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Spremnost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Vojno delo, 69(1), 153-190.
Uticaj personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa (Influence of personal and environmental factors on the help expectation from the first responders and humanitarian organizations during natural disasters)
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći građana od strane interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na području 19 lokalnih zajednica ugroženih od posledica prirodnih katastrofa i u okviru kojeg je anketirano 2500 građana korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da građani u najvećoj meri (4.26) očekuju pomoć od ukućana, a u najmanjoj meri od verskih zajednica (2.39). U odnosu na interventno-spasilačke službe, građani u najvećoj meri očekuju pomoć od vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica (3.62), a u najmanjoj meri od policije (3.31). Daljim statističkim analizama, utvrđeno je da postoji značajan uticaj pola na očekivanje pomoći za vreme prirodnih katastrofa od ukućana, verskih zajednica i policije. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje efikasnosti upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama u pogledu pružanja pomoći ugroženim ljudima. The subject of quantitative research is to examine students’ attitudes about the introduction of a course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school. In addition, the impacts of certain characteristics of students are analyzed on their positive or negative attitudes about the introduction of the course. From the total population of secondary school students in Belgrade, multiple-point random sampling included a sample of 3063 students from 14 secondary schools. Based on the results, the students are mostly not sure if they have positive attitude towards the introduction of the course (47.8%). On the other hand, 26.2% of students answered that they vote for the introduction of the course, while 24.7% gave a negative answer. Also, it has been found that the attitudes of respondents on the introduction of the course are statistically significantly influenced by gender, age, parental employment, education of father and mother, grade. The research results can be used by the decision-makers when designing strategies and programs for the introduction of the course “safety culture” into a curriculum for secondary school in order to reduce disaster risks.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Uticaj personalnih i sredinskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od interventno-spasilačkih službi i humanitarnih organizacija za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Bezbednost, 59(3), 28-53.
Informisanost građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama – Informed of citizens about firefighters jurisdiction in emergency situations
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja informisanosti građana Srbije o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja određenih demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na informisanost građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Istraživanje je sprovedeno 2015. godine i u samom procesu anketnog ispitivanja realizovanog na području devetnaest lokalnih zajednica anketirano je dve i po hiljade građana. Tom prilikom primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati sprovedenih deskriptivnih i inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da je srednja vrednost obaveštenosti ispitanika o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama 2,78, odnosno 22% ispitanika je u apsolutnoj meri neobavešteno, 15,8% u izvesnoj meri neobavešteno, 32,5% niti obavešteno niti neobavešteno, 14,8% u izvesnoj meri obavešteno i 11,8% u apsolutnoj meri obavešteno o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Pored toga, rezultati inferencijalnih statističkih analiza pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost obaveštenosti ispitanika sa polom, volonterstvom, bavljenjem sportom, roditeljstvom, zaposlenošću, godinama starosti, nivom obrazovanja, bračnim statusom i nivom religioznosti dok nije utvrđena značajna povezanost sa prethodnim iskustvom u vanrednim situacijama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje svesti građana o nadležnostima vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u vanrednim situacijama. Ključne reči: bezbednost, vanredne situacije, vatrogasno-spasilačke jedinice, informisanost, građani. The paper presents the results of a quantitative survey of Serbian citizens’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. The subject of the research is an examination of the influence of certain demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on citizens’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. The research was conducted in 2015, and in the process of the survey carried out in the area of nineteen local communities, two and a half thousand citizens were surveyed. On that occasion, a survey strategy was applied in households with the application of a multi-stage random sample. The results of the conducted descriptive and inferential statistical analyzes show that the average value of respondents’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations is 2.78, i.e. 22% of respondents are completely uninformed, 15.8% to some extent uninformed, 32.5% neither informed nor not informed, 14.8% informed to a certain extent and 11.8% absolutely informed about the competences of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. In addition, the results of inferential statistical analyzes show that there is a statistically significant connection between the knowledge of respondents with gender, volunteerism, playing sports, parenthood, employment, age, level of education, marital status and level of religiosity, while no significant connection with previous experience in emergency situations was established. The results of the research can be used to improve citizens’ awareness of the responsibilities of fire-rescue units in emergency situations. Keywords: security, emergency situations, fire-rescue units, information, citizens.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Informed citizens about firefighters’ jurisdiction in emergency situations. VIII Scientific and professional conference with international participation, Police and judiciary guarantees of freedom and security in a legal state, At Hotel “Omorika” on Tara Mountain, Serbia.
Krizne situacije – pripremljenost države, lokalne zajednice i građana (Crisis situations – preparedness of state, local communities and citizens)
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije spremnosti organa državne uprave i jedinica lokalne samouprave, domaćinstva i građana za reagovanje u kriznim situacijama izazvanim poplavama u Republici Srbiji. Polazeći od teorije spremnosti kao okvira za objašnjenje načina na koji se zajednica menja u pogledu sprovođenja određenih preventivnih mera ispituje se uticaj određenih demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika građana na njihovu percepciju spremnosti navedenih subjekata sistema zaštite i spasavanja. Cilј kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlјa naučna eksplikacija uticaja navedenih faktora na percepciju spremnosti. U istraživanju sprovedenom u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da je ocena spremnosti za reagovanje najviša je kod domaćinstva (M = 3,03), a najniža kod organa jedinica lokalne samouprave (M = 2,86). Utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost pola, godina starosti, visine prihoda i prethodnog iskustva sa percepcijom spremnosti domaćinstva. Sa druge strane, na percepciju spremnosti državnih organa statistički značajno utiču godine starosti, status zaposlenosti, visina prihoda i prethodno iskustvo. Posebno je značajno spomenuti da strah ispitanika od kriznih situacija ne utiče na percepciju spremnosti za reagovanje. Polazeći od empirijski neispitanog stanja percepcije spremnosti sistema zaštite i spasavanja za reagovanje rad poseduje visoki naučni i društveni značaj. Pri tome, rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje spremnosti takvog sistema. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, krizne situacije, spremnost, sistem, državni organi, lokalne samouprave, domaćinstva, građani, Srbija, kvantitativno istraživanje. The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of perception of preparedness state administration and local governments, households and citizens to respond in disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. Starting from the theory of preparedness as a framework for explanation of how the community is changing in terms of implementing specific preventive measures, authors examined the effects of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens on their perception preparedness of subjects protection and rescue system. The objective of quantitative research is scientific explication impact of those factors on perception of the preparedness of subjects. In a survey conducted in 19 local communities in Serbia using a testing strategy in households, multistage random sampling of 2,500 persons were interviewed in the course of 2015. The research results indicate that the assessment of readiness to respond highest among households (M = 3.03), and lowest in the bodies of local self-government (M = 2.86). There was a statistically significant correlation between sex, age, income level, and previous experience with the perception of the willingness of the household. The evaluation of individual readiness and willingness of households is higher in men than in women. Citizens aged 18 to 28 years recorded the highest level of readiness assessments household response, unlike citizens from 28 to 38 years who have recorded the highest level of readiness assessment bodies of local self-government. Employees citizens largely emphasize that the authorities are ready to respond. Individuals with incomes over 90,000 dinars recorded the highest level of readiness assessments household. Assessment of preparedness of state bodies and bodies of local self-government is the highest among the citizens with the amount of income to 50,000. Citizens who have had previous experience with floods, compared to those who did not have such experiences, there was a higher level: the assessment of individual readiness, willingness bodies of local self-government and state authorities to respond to natural disasters caused by flooding. On the other hand, the perception of the readiness of state bodies significantly affected by age, employment status, income, and previous experience. It is especially important to note that the respondents fear of a crisis situation does not affect the perception of readiness to respond. Starting from the empirical perception of the state of readiness of the unexamined system of protection and rescue response work possesses high scientific and social significance. In doing so, the results of research could be used to improve the readiness of such a system. Keywords: security, crisis situations, preparedness, system, state authorities, local governments, households, citizens of Serbia, quantitative research.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Krizne situacije – pripremljenost države, lokalne zajednice i građana. Vojno delo, 69(7), 122-136.
Percepcija rizika od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama (Risk perception of natural disasters caused by floods)
Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje percepcije građana o riziku nastanka prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom i ocene ugroženosti njihovog domaćinstva. T – testom nezavisnih uzoraka ispitana je povezanost pola, roditeljstva, zaposlenosti, invaliditeta i prethodnog iskustva, dok je jednofaktorskom analizom varijanse ispitana povezanost godina starosti, nivoa obrazovanja i bračnog statusa sa percepcijom rizika i ocenom ugroženosti domaćinstva. Cilj sprovedenog istraživanja se ogleda u naučnoj eksplikaciji uticaja navedenih promenljiva. Primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima i višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u 19 lokalnih zajednica. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da 13,4% ispitanika ističe da je verovatno da će doći do poplave u narednih godinu dana, neznatno više ispitanika 28,9% smatra da je verovatno da će doći do poplave u narednih pet godina i 39,3% ispitanika ističe je da je ugroženo njihovo domaćinstvo. Utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost između percepcije rizika, roditeljstva, prethodnog iskustva, vojne obaveze, godine starosti i bračni status. Kada je reč o oceni ugroženosti domaćinstva statistički značajno je povezana sa roditeljstvom, prethodnim iskustvom, vojnom obavezom, nivoom obrazovanja i bračnim statusom. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za podizanje nivoa svesti o rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama kao ključni preduslov podizanja njihove spremnosti za reagovanje. The subject of quantitative research is to examine citizens risk perception about the occurrence risk of natural disaster caused by flood and assessments vulnerability of their household. T – test for independent samples examined the relationship of gender, parenting, employment, disability and previous experience, while the single factor analysis of variance examines the relationships of age, educational level and marital status with the perception of risk and assessment vulnerability of households. The aim of the research is reflected in the scientific explication of the mentioned variable. By applying a testing strategy for households and multistage random sampling were surveyed 2500 citizens in 19 local communities. Survey results show that 13.4% of respondents said that it is probable that there will be flooding in the next year, slightly more respondents 28.9% said it was unlikely that there will be flooding in the next five years and 39.3% of respondents said that threatened their household. There was a statistically significant association between risk perception, parenting, previous experience, compulsory military service, age and marital status. When it comes to assess the vulnerability of the household was significantly associated with parenting, previous experience, military service, level of education and marital status. The research results can be used to raise awareness about the risks of natural disasters caused by floods as a key precondition for raising their readiness to respond.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2017). Percepcija rizika od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama. Vojno delo, 69(5), 160-175.
Spremnost sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije za implementaciju integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa: preporuke za sprovodjenje istraživanja (The Serbian protection and resque system preparedness for integrated disaster risk management implementation: recommendations for research)
Polazeći od činjenice da trenutni nivo spremnosti (organizovanosti i osposobljenosti) sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije zaostaje za procenjenim potrebama i objektivnim mogućnostima kojima država raspolaže, neophodno je transformisati sistem upravljanja sa jednofaznog na integrisano upravljanje rizicima od katastrofa. Pri tome, transformacija se odnosi na sve cikluse upravljanja u katastrofama: pre katastrofe (priprema i ublažavanje), za vreme katastrofe (odgovor), posle katastrofe (odgovor – rekonstrukcija i rehabilitacija). Iz tih razloga, autori u radu na jedan vrlo sistematičan način iznose konceptualne osnove istraživanja koje bi trebalo da se sprovede kako bi se ispitalo stanje i mogućnosti za tranformaciju spomenutog sistema i efikasnog funkcionisanja integrisanog urpavljanja rizicima od katastrofa. Starting from the fact that the current level of preparedness (organization and competence) of the Serbian protection and rescue system lags behind the estimated needs and objective opportunities available to the state, it is necessary to transform the management system from single-phase to integrated disaster risk management. In addition, this applies to all cycles of disaster development: before disaster (preparation and mitigation), during disaster (response), after disaster (response – reconstruction and rehabilitation). For these reasons, the authors in a very systematic way outline the conceptual bases of the research that should be carried out in order to examine the situation and possibilities for the transformation of the mentioned system and the efficient functioning of the integrated risk management from disasters.
Referenca – Cvetković, M. V., & Miladinović, S. (2018). Spremnost sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije za implementaciju integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa – preporuke za sprovođenje istraživanja. Ecologica, 25(92), 995-1001.
Uticaj demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera (The impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures)
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja uticaja demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera u cilju smanjena posledica od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplikacija uticaja navedenih faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera. U istraživanju sprovedenom u 19 lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji primenom strategije ispitivanja u domaćinstvima, višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem anketirano je 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da je utvrđena statistički značajna povezanost demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora sa preduzimanjem preventivnih mera. Naime, ispitanici muškog pola i ispitanici starosti od 58 do 68 godina u većem procentu preduzeli su preventivne mere u odnosu na ispitanike ženskog pola i ispitanke starosti od 28 do 38 godina itd. Dobijeni rezultati mogu biti iskorišćeni za unapređenje stanja preduzimanja preventivnih mera u cilju smanjenja posledica od nastalih prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, demografski, socio-ekonomski, psihološki, preventivne mere. The paper presents the results of the quantitative research of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors on preventive measures for the reduction of consequences of natural disasters caused by flood. The objective of quantitative research is scientific explication of the impact of those factors on preventative measures. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that the significant association of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors with taking preventive measures. The male respondents and respondents aged 58 to 68 years in higher percentage taken as preventive measures in respect of female respondents and examined persons age 28 to 38 years and so on. The results could be used for improving the situation of taking preventive measures to reduce the consequences of natural disasters caused by the resulting flood. Key words: security, natural disaster, demographic, socio-economic, psychological, preventive measures.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških faktora na preduzimanje preventivnih mera. Kultura polisa, XIII(32), 393-404.
The relationship between educational level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters – Povezanost nivoa obrazovanja i pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama
This paper presents the results of quantitative research into the relationship between educational level and preparedness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood. Starting from the local communities in Serbia that are vulnerable to flooding, 19 of them were selected randomly out of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade. In survey research conducted in 2015, which included 2,500 respondents it was applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship between educational level and the following variables: preventive measures; financial funds; engaged in the field; engaged in a reception center; visiting to flooded areas; heavy rains; river level rise; and the level of preparedness, supplies in the home; radio-transistor; flashlight; shovel; hack; apparatus for firefighting; supplies in the car; first aid kit in the home and so on. On the other hand, there is no relationship with variables: media reports, information in religious community, on television, education on radio, informal education system. The research results can be used to improve citizen preparedness to respond to disasters caused by flooding. The survey set out recommendations for increasing the level of preparedness to respond in such situations with regard to the educational level of citizens. Ovaj rad predstavlja rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja odnosa između nivoa obrazovanja i spremnosti građana za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. Polazeći od lokalnih zajednica u Srbiji koje su podložne poplavama, njih 19 izabrano je nasumično od 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U istraživanju sprovedenom 2015. godine, koje je obuhvatilo 2.500 ispitanika, primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna veza između nivoa obrazovanja i sledećih varijabli: preventivne mere; finansijska sredstva; angažovan na terenu; angažovan u prihvatnom centru; poseta poplavljenim područjima; obilne kiše; porast nivoa reke; i nivo pripremljenosti, zalihe u kući; radio-tranzistor; baterijska lampa; lopata; hack; aparati za gašenje požara; zalihe u kolima; komplet prve pomoći u kući i tako dalje. S druge strane, ne postoji veza sa varijablama: izveštaji medija, informacije u verskoj zajednici, na televiziji, obrazovanje na radiju, neformalni obrazovni sistem. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti za poboljšanje spremnosti građana za odgovor na katastrofe izazvane poplavama. Istraživanje je iznelo preporuke za povećanje nivoa spremnosti za reagovanje u takvim situacijama s obzirom na nivo obrazovanja građana
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). The relationship between educational level and citizen preparedness for responding to natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić” SASA, 66(2), 237-253.
Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija (Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruption)
Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of volcanic eruptions, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. In relation to the total number of natural disasters in the period, which amounted to 25.552, geophysical disasters are in the third place according to its frequency – 11,89%. In the fi st place are hydrological disasters – 37,40%, and the last are biological ones – 11,04%. Volcanic eruptions as geophysical disasters, every day increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the fi ld of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientifi method for drawing conclusions about the volcanic eruptions is general scientifi statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of this paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of volcanic eruptions in the period from 1900 to 2013 at the global level. In addition, the statistical study was conducted in such a way that in the fi st step raw (unprocessed) data were taken in «Excel» file form from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which were then analyzed in the statistical SPSS data processing. Within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and effects of volcanic eruptions was examined on an annual, monthly and daily basis, with a special focus on the top 5 years by the number of various effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). On the same principle, within the spatial distribution, total number and the consequences of volcanic eruptions were analyzed by continents and countries, with special emphasis on the total number and variety of consequences. Vulkanske erupcije kao geofizičke katastrofe, svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbednost lјudi i njihove imovine. Kao takve, počinju sve više privlačiti pažnju istraživača iz oblasti vanrednih situacija koji ih žele bolјe spoznati. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučlјiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaklјučaka o vulkanskim erupcijama jeste statistička metoda. Rukovodeći se tom činjenicom, predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija u svetu, tokom perioda 1900-2013. godina. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci u vidu ,,Excel” fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica vulkanskih erupcija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou, sa posebnim osvrtom na 5 najznačajnijih godina prema broju različitih posledica (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni, bez doma). Na istom principu, u okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice vulkanskih erupcija po kontinentima i državama, sa posebnim osvrtom na pet najugroženijih država prema ukupnom broju i različitim posledicama. U cilju efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom vulkanskih erupcija, potrebno je između ostalog sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispolјavanja vulkanskih erupcija. Pri tome, važno je da geoprostorna i vremenska analiza vulkanskih erupcija daju značenje, sadržaj i vrednost sveobuhvatnoj težnji za bolje razumevanje prirodnih opasnosti i njihovih uticaja, kako bi se stanovništvo pravovremeno zaštitilo od njih.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije vulkanskih erupcija. NBP – Žurnal za kriminalistiku i pravo, 2/2014, 153-171.
Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters (Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija prirodnih katastrofa)
The subject of quantitative research is determining the spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters worldwide for the period 1900-2013. Considering that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for making conclusions on natural disasters is the statistical method. Thereby, a statistical survey has been conducted in the way that raw data about all natural disasters in the first step were downloaded (25.552) in the form of Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution the total number and consequences of natural disasters were analyzed by continents. According to the same principle, within temporal analysis we examined distribution of the total number and effects of natural disasters on annual, monthly and daily levels. Statistical results of analysis clearly indicate that the number of natural disasters has increased, with their recorded maximum in the period from 2000 to 2013. Certainly, one can not absolutely say this is true
in view of starting to pay serious attention to quantitative indicators. Also, it can not be said that the international database (CRED) included absolutely all natural disasters in the world, considering that it was created thanks to the submission of national reports on natural disasters.
Such way of data collection can have serious shortcomings, given the diverse subjectivities. In addition, the question that arises is whether most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the global geographic space, the survey results represent a good argument for initiation of serious reforms of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens about the seriousness of the consequences of natural disasters to humans, environment and their property. Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja je utvrđivanje prostorne i vremenske distribucije prirodnih katastrofa širom sveta za period 1900-2013. S obzirom da se radi o masovnom fenomenu koji se sastoji od više celina, najpoželjnija naučna metoda za donošenje zaključaka o prirodnim katastrofama je statistička metoda. Tako je sprovedeno statističko istraživanje na način da su sirovi podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama u prvom koraku preuzeti (25.552) u obliku Ekcel datoteke iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim analizirani u programu za statističku analizu podataka SPSS. U okviru geoprostorne raspodele ukupan broj i posledice prirodnih katastrofa analizirani su po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize ispitivali smo raspodelu ukupnog broja i efekata prirodnih katastrofa na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou. Statistički rezultati analiza jasno ukazuju na to da se broj prirodnih katastrofa povećao, sa njihovim zabeleženim maksimumom u periodu od 2000. do 2013. Svakako, ne može se apsolutno reći da je to tačno s obzirom na to da počinjemo ozbiljno da obraćamo pažnju na kvantitativne pokazatelje. Takođe, ne može se reći da je međunarodna baza podataka (CRED) obuhvatala apsolutno sve prirodne katastrofe na svetu, s obzirom na to da je stvorena zahvaljujući podnošenju nacionalnih izveštaja o prirodnim katastrofama. Takav način prikupljanja podataka može imati ozbiljnih nedostataka, s obzirom na različite subjektivnosti. Pored toga, postavlja se pitanje da li je većina nerazvijenih zemalja podnela svoje izveštaje. Imajući u vidu porast broja i težine prirodnih katastrofa na globalnom geografskom prostoru, rezultati istraživanja predstavljaju dobar argument za pokretanje ozbiljnih reformi sistema zaštite i spasavanja od prirodnih katastrofa u zemljama širom sveta. Rezultati istraživanja utiču na podizanje svesti građana o ozbiljnosti posledica prirodnih katastrofa po ljude, životnu sredinu i njihovu imovinu.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Dragicević, S. (2014). Spatial and temporal distribution of natural disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 64(3), 293-309.
Žene kao učesnici u mirovnim operacijama i donosioci odluka u sektoru bezbednosti (Women as participants in peace operations and decision-makers in security sector)
Savet bezbednosti Ujedinjenih nacija usvojio je 2000. godine Rezoluciju 1325, koja se zalaže za proces integracije žena u sferu bezbednosti i njihovo učestvovanje u osnovnim operacijama dostizanja i očuvanja mira i bezbednosti. Proces integracije žena u tu oblast podrazumeva ravnopravno učešće žena u konfliktnim situacijama, radi prevencije nasilja, izgrađivanja mira i sprovođenja humanitarnih operacija. Rezolucija 1325 je takođe i dokument kojim je garantovana rodna ravnopravnost i zaštita prava žena u konfliktnim područjima. Potreba zaštite prava žena kao pasivnih ili aktivnih učesnika oružanih sukoba proizlazi, s jedne strane, iz njihove ranjivosti i ugroženosti posledicama oružanih sukoba, a sa druge strane, iz činjenice da žene kao donosioci odluka u sektoru bezbednosti po prirodi teže nenasilnim i neoružanim načinima rešavanja problema. Međutim, sprovođenje Rezolucije 1325 u praksi nailazi na mnogobrojne probleme, pa se uloga žena u sektoru bezbednosti zanemaruje, i često se svodi samo na formalno prisustvo u različitim strukturama, bez mogućnosti žena da ravnopravno učestvuju u procesima planiranja, odlučivanja i sprovođenja odluka. Cilj ovog rada je da ukaže na realno stanje zastuplјenosti žena u sektoru bezbednosti u svetu i u Republici Srbiji, naročito na najvišim pozicijama, i njihovu ulogu u mirovnim operacijama i procesu donošenja najvažnijih odluka. The UN Security Council adopted The Resolution 1325 in 2000, which supports the integration of women into the sphere of security and their participation in the basic operations achieving and maintaining peace and security. The process of women’s integration in this area includes the equal participation of women in conflict situations, in order to prevent violence, peace-building and implementation of humanitarian operations. Resolution 1325 is also a document that guarantees gender equality and protecting women’s rights in conflict areas. Necessity for protec- tion women’s rights as passive or active participants in armed conflicts is conditioned on the one hand, by their vulnerability and the consequences of armed conflict; on the other hand, by the fact that women as decision makers in the security sector naturaly tend to non-violent and unarmed ways of solving problems. However, the implementation of Resolution 1325 in practice has faced many problems, so the role of women in the security sector is neglected, and often reduced to a formal presence in different structures, without the possibility for women to participate equally in the planning, decision making and implementing decisions. The aim of this paper is to show the real situation of women’s representation in the security sector in the world and in the Republic of Serbia, especially on top levels, and their role in peacekeeping operations and in the top-level security decision-making process.
Referenca – Popović, M., & Cvetković, V. (2012). Žene kao učesnici u mirovnim operacijama i donosioci odluka u sektoru bezbednosti. Žene Kultura – Polis, 9(2), 273-291.
Uloga i obučavanje pripadnika vojske Srbije za eskortnu pratnju (The role and training of members of the Serbian army for escort escorts)
Kroz istoriju su mnoge istaknute ličnosti, s jedne strane bile predmet uvažavanja, pa čak i fanatičnog obožavanja, a s druge strane predmet osporavanja do čak patološke netrpelјivosti. Sa razvojem društva „kult ličnosti“ je sve više počeo da bledi a „nedodirlјivost“ je postajala sve slabija. Takve ličnosti su sve češće postajale mete napada svojih neistomišlјenika koji su ponekad rezultirali i fizičkom likvidacijom. Potreba za zaštitom takvih ličnosti, koje danas nazivamo „određenim ličnostima“, javila se sa intenziviranjem ugrožavanja njihovih života. Zadaci obezbeđenja poveravani su najodanijim i najsposobnijim lјudima koji su bili u neposrednom okruženju štićene ličnosti. S tim u vezi, u radu je dat generalni pregled poslova obezbeđenja sa posebnim osvrtom na istorijat, opšte pojmove i vrste obezbeđenja. Throughout history, many prominent personalities, on the one hand, have been the subject of respect and even fanatical worship, and on the other hand, the subject of challenge to even pathological intolerance. With the development of society, the “cult of personality” began to fade more and more, and the “untouchability” became weaker and weaker. Such personalities increasingly became the targets of attacks by their dissidents, which sometimes resulted in physical liquidation. The need to protect such persons, which we now call “certain persons”, arose with the intensification of the threat to their lives. Security tasks were entrusted to the most loyal and capable people who were in the immediate vicinity of the protected person. In this regard, the paper gives a general overview of security activities with special reference to the history, general concepts and types of security.
Referenca – Veličković, M., Cvetković, V. (2013). Uloga i obučavanje pripadnika vojske Srbije za eskortnu pratnju. Vojno delo, 55(2), 262-276.
Uloga i obučavanje pripadnika vojske Srbije za eskortnu pratnju (The role and training of members of the Serbian army for escort escorts)
Kroz istoriju su mnoge istaknute ličnosti, s jedne strane bile predmet uvažavanja, pa čak i fanatičnog obožavanja, a s druge strane predmet osporavanja do čak patološke netrpelјivosti. Sa razvojem društva „kult ličnosti“ je sve više počeo da bledi a „nedodirlјivost“ je postajala sve slabija. Takve ličnosti su sve češće postajale mete napada svojih neistomišlјenika koji su ponekad rezultirali i fizičkom likvidacijom. Potreba za zaštitom takvih ličnosti, koje danas nazivamo „određenim ličnostima“, javila se sa intenziviranjem ugrožavanja njihovih života. Zadaci obezbeđenja poveravani su najodanijim i najsposobnijim lјudima koji su bili u neposrednom okruženju štićene ličnosti. S tim u vezi, u radu je dat generalni pregled poslova obezbeđenja sa posebnim osvrtom na istorijat, opšte pojmove i vrste obezbeđenja. Throughout history, many prominent personalities, on the one hand, have been the subject of respect and even fanatical worship, and on the other hand, the subject of challenge to even pathological intolerance. With the development of society, the “cult of personality” began to fade more and more, and the “untouchability” became weaker and weaker. Such personalities increasingly became the targets of attacks by their dissidents, which sometimes resulted in physical liquidation. The need to protect such persons, which we now call “certain persons”, arose with the intensification of the threat to their lives. Security tasks were entrusted to the most loyal and capable people who were in the immediate vicinity of the protected person. In this regard, the paper gives a general overview of security activities with special reference to the history, general concepts and types of security.
Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, V. (2014). Uloga privatnih oružanih snaga u tradicionalnim konceptima bezbednosti. Vojno delo, 64 (2), 126-144.
Uloga privatnih oružanih snaga u tradicionalnim konceptima bezbednosti (The role of private armed forces in traditional security concepts)
Kroz istoriju su mnoge istaknute ličnosti, s jedne strane bile predmet uvažavanja, pa čak i fanatičnog obožavanja, a s druge strane predmet osporavanja do čak patološke netrpelјivosti. Sa razvojem društva „kult ličnosti“ je sve više počeo da bledi a „nedodirlјivost“ je postajala sve slabija. Takve ličnosti su sve češće postajale mete napada svojih neistomišlјenika koji su ponekad rezultirali i fizičkom likvidacijom. Potreba za zaštitom takvih ličnosti, koje danas nazivamo „određenim ličnostima“, javila se sa intenziviranjem ugrožavanja njihovih života. Zadaci obezbeđenja poveravani su najodanijim i najsposobnijim lјudima koji su bili u neposrednom okruženju štićene ličnosti. S tim u vezi, u radu je dat generalni pregled poslova obezbeđenja sa posebnim osvrtom na istorijat, opšte pojmove i vrste obezbeđenja. Throughout history, many prominent personalities, on the one hand, have been the subject of respect and even fanatical worship, and on the other hand, the subject of challenge to even pathological intolerance. With the development of society, the “cult of personality” began to fade more and more, and the “untouchability” became weaker and weaker. Such personalities increasingly became the targets of attacks by their dissidents, which sometimes resulted in physical liquidation. The need to protect such persons, which we now call “certain persons”, arose with the intensification of the threat to their lives. Security tasks were entrusted to the most loyal and capable people who were in the immediate vicinity of the protected person. In this regard, the paper gives a general overview of security activities with special reference to the history, general concepts and types of security.
Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, V. (2014). Uloga privatnih oružanih snaga u tradicionalnim konceptima bezbednosti. Vojno delo, 64 (2), 126-144.
Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters (Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija geofizičkih katastrofa)
Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of geophysical natural disasters, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. Using an international database on natural disasters of the centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters (CRED) based in Brussels, with the support of the statistical analysis (SPSS), we tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and dry mass movements in the world, from 1900 to 2013. Prirodne katastrofe svih vrsta (meteorološke, hidrološke, geofizičke, klimatološke i biološke) sve više postaju deo svakodnevnog života savremenog čoveka. Posledice su često poražavajuće za život, zdravlje i imovinu ljudi, kao i za sigurnost država i čitavih međunarodnih regiona. S tim u vezi, primetili smo potrebu za sveobuhvatnim istraživanjem fenomenologije prirodnih katastrofa. Pored toga, posebno je važno obratiti pažnju na različite faktore koji mogu međusobno korelirati kako bi se ukazalo na sumnjivije i originalnije činjenice o njihovim karakteristikama. Međutim, kako je pitanje prirodnih katastrofa vrlo široko, predmet ovog rada biće oblici, posledice, vremenska i prostorna distribucija geofizičkih prirodnih katastrofa, dok će analiza drugih katastrofa biti predmet našeg budućeg istraživanja. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku statističke analize (SPSS), pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendove, posledice, prostorne i vremenska raspodela zemljotresa, erupcija vulkana i kretanja suvih masa u svetu, od 1900. do 2013.
Referenca – Cvetkovic, V., & Mijalkovic, S. (2013). Spatial and temporal distribution of geophysical disasters. Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 63(3), 345-359.
Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije zemljotresa kao prirodnih katastrofa (Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes as natural disasters)
Prirodne katastrofe svih vrsta (meteorološke, hidrološke, geofizičke, klimatske i biološke) sve više postaju deo svakodnevnog života savremenog čoveka. Posledice su veoma često razorne po život, zdravlje i imovinu ljudi, ali takođe i po bezbednost države i čitave međunarodne zajednice. Zemljotresi (trusovi) pripadaju grupi geofizičkih prirodnih katastrofa i dešavaju se vrlo često s tim što je njihov najveći broj slabijeg intenziteta. Snažniji zemljotresi mogu da prouzrokuju veliku materijalnu štetu i ozbiljne posledice po život ljudi kroz nastajanje pukotina u zemljinoj kori, potresa tla, poplava, oslobađanja opasnih materija i sl. U tom smislu, radi efektivnije i efikasnije zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim dejstvom seizmičkih talasa, potrebno je između ostalog sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispoljavanja zemljotresa. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metoda tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendove, posledice, vremensku i geoprostornu distribuciju zemljotresa u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i na potrebu adekvatnog odgovora društva na tu vrstu prirodne katastrofe. Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatic and biological) are increasingly becoming a part of everyday life of modern man. The consequences are very often devastating for the life, health and property of the people, but also for the security of the state and the entire international community. Earthquakes (earthquakes) belong to the group of geophysical natural disasters and happen very often, with the largest number of them being of lower intensity. Stronger earthquakes can cause great material damage and serious consequences for human life through the formation of cracks in the earth’s crust, earthquakes, floods, release of hazardous substances and the like. In that sense, in order to more effectively and efficiently protect and respond to emergencies caused by the harmful effects of seismic waves, it is necessary to comprehensively investigate the natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be the form, consequences, time and geospatial distribution of earthquakes. Using the international database on natural disasters of the Brussels-based Center for Disaster Epidemiology Research (CRED), with the support of the Statistical Analysis Program (SPSS) and thematic cartography methods, we tried to indicate the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of earthquakes. in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural disaster.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Milojković, B., & Stojković, D. (2014). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije zemljotresa kao prirodnih katastrofa. Vojno delo, 66(2), 166-185.
Spremnost studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji (Prepadness of students academy of criminalistics and police studies for responding to natural disasters caused by floods in Serbia)
Bearing in mind the impossibility of achieving absolute safety from the consequences of natural disasters, as well as the inability of the authorities to all citizens in the short term help, readiness as a concept that is one of the cycles of natural disaster management is particularly important. In addition, it can be said that scientific research is particularly encouraged by insufficiently explained the nature of the impact of demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics of citizens on their willingness to respond to various natural disasters. Accordingly, the subject of quantitative research is the identification of objective and subjective readiness of students Criminal Police College for responding to a natural disaster caused by the flood. In addition, in order to examine the impact of demographic, socioeconomic and psychological characteristics of students of the Academy’s willingness to respond, using chi-square test. For testing correlation between the continuous variable such as height, weight, age and average rating of readiness will be used Pearson correlation coefficient r. On that occasion he used method of surveying students with the help of an instrument for these purposes and created. Bearing in mind that the students Academy of criminalistics and police studies are formed in groups of years of study we chose a cluster sample. So, we decided that the election of members of the population in the sample does not perform direct care to select an entire group (first year students). More specifically, members of the population consisting of all students Academy of criminalistics and police studies (from the first to the fourth year of study) were not pulled out individually for the sample from the population but pulled out one group (first year students). The sample included 434 students, of which 59.6% male and 40.4% female, with a range of 18 to 22 years, mean age 19:02. The results show that certain elements of preparedness of students for reacting natural disaster caused by the flood of largely influenced by the following variables: gender, father’s education, religiosity and awareness for steštnim effect of flooding. Students showed a higher degree of subjective than objective readiness to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood. Imajući u vidu nemogućnost postizanja apsolutne bezbednosti od posledica prirodnih katastrofa, kao i nemogućnost vlasti da svim građanima u kratkom roku pomogne, spremnost kao jedna o faza upravljanja prirodnim katastrofama je posebno važna. Pored toga, može se reći da naučna istraživanja posebno podstiče nedovoljno objašnjena priroda uticaja demografskih, socijalno-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika građana na njihovu spremnost da odgovore na različite prirodne katastrofe. Shodno tome, predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja je utvrđivanje objektivne i subjektivne spremnosti studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. Pored toga, kako bi se ispitao uticaj demografskih, socioekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika spremnosti studenata korišćen je hi-kvadrat test. Za ispitivanje korelacije između nezavisne promenljive kao što su visina, težina, starost i prosečna ocena spremnosti korišćen je Pearsonov koeficijent korelacije r. Tom prilikom je za ove svrhe korišćenja metoda anketiranja učenika uz pomoć anketnog upitnika. Imajući u vidu da su studenti Kriminalističko-policijske akademije raspoređeni u grupama različitih godina studija, izabrali smo klaster uzorak. Dakle, zaključili smo da se izborom članova populacije u uzorku ne vrši direktna briga za odabir čitave grupe (studenti prve godine). Tačnije, pripadnici populacije koju čine svi studenti Kriminalističko-policijske akademije (od prve do četvrte godine studija) nisu izvučeni pojedinačno za uzorak iz populacije, već smo izvukli jednu grupu (studenti prve godine). Uzorak je obuhvatio 434 učenika, od čega 59,6% muškaraca i 40,4% žena, uzrasta od 18 do 22 godine, prosečne starosti 19:02. Rezultati pokazuju da su na određene elemente pripremljenosti učenika za reagovanje prirodnom katastrofom izazvanom poplavom u velikoj meri uticale sledeće promenljive: pol, obrazovanje oca, religioznost i svest za steštnim efektom poplave. Studenti su pokazali viši stepen subjektivne nego objektivne spremnosti da odgovore na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gaćić, J., & Petrović, D. (2015). Spremnost studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Ecologica, 22(78), 302-309.
Knowledge and perceptions of secondary school students in Kraljevo about natural disasters (Znanje i percepcija učenika srednje škole u Kraljevu o prirodnim katastrofama)
Kvantitativno istraživanje je sprovedeno sa ciljem utvrđivanja percepcije i stvarnog znanja učenika srednje elektrotehničke škole u Kraljevu ,,Nikola Tesla” o prirodnim katastrofama. Tom prilikom je korišćen metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji imaju uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika. Iz populacije srednje elektrotehničke škole u Kraljevu, na slučajan način, iz svake godine izabran je po određen broj ispitanika. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da izvori informacija o prirodnim katastrofama i njihovim ugrožavajućim posledicama utiču na percepciju učenika srednje škole. Istovremeno, na stvarno znanje o prirodnim katastrofama utiču predavanja, škola, televizija i internet, dok znatno manje utiču video-igre, radio i priče od članova porodice. Ispitanici bez ličnog iskustva u vezi sa ugrožavajućim posledicama prirodnih katastrofa u statistički većem procentu ne znaju da prepoznaju određene prirodne katastrofe. Iskustvo članova uže porodice ne utiče u velikoj meri na znanje o prirodnim katastrofama, sa izuzetkom oca. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa. Quantitative research was conducted in order to determine the perceptions and actual knowledge of secondary school for electrical engineering in Kraljevo, Nikola Tesla about natural disasters. On that occasion used method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence the knowledge and perceptions of students. From the population of secondary technical school in Kraljevo, at random, from each year was chosen by a number of respondents. The results show that the sources of information about natural disasters and their threatening consequences affect the perception of secondary school students. At the same time, the actual knowledge about natural disasters affecting lectures, schools, television and the internet, while considerably less influence video games, radio and stories from family members. Those with no personal experience regarding the threatening consequences of natural disasters in a statistically higher percentage do not know how to recognize a certain natural disasters. Experience immediate family members are not affected to a large extent on the knowledge of natural disasters, with the exception of his father. Bearing in mind the evident lack of education about natural disasters in Serbia, the survey results can be used when creating the strategy of educational programs.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Stojković, D. (2015). Knowledge and perceptions of secondary school students in Kraljevo about natural disasters. Ecologica, 22(77), 42-49.
Viktimizacija ljudi prirodnim katastrofama – geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija (Victimization of People by Natural Disasters: Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Consequences)
Predmet rada je deskriptivna statistička analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi (poginuli, povređeni, pogođeni i materijalna šteta) sa posebnim osvrtom na geofizičke, meteorološke, klimatske, biološke i hidrološke katastrofe koje su se dogodile u svetu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Pri tome, ljudi koji su pogođeni raznovrsnim prirodnim katastrofama se mogu posmatrati kao nevidljive žrtve jer ih država i društvo ne prepoznaju kao žrtve, pa samim tim ne dobijaju adekvatnu zaštitu, pomoć i podršku. Statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na podacima međunarodne baze podataka Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) u Briselu. U okviru vremenske analize raz- matrana je distribucija posledica prirodnih katastrofa po ljude, u intervalima od po deset godina. Istom metodologijom analizirana je geoprostorna distribucija viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama po kontinentima. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije viktimizacije ljudi prirodnim katastrofama u svetskom geopro- storu u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Rezultati istraživanja nedvosmisleno ukazuju na porast broja i ozbiljnosti posledica prirodnih katastrofa. This paper is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distributions of victimized people (killed, injured, affected and damage) with specific reference to geophysical, meteorological, climatological, biological and hydrological disasters that have occurred in the world of from 1900 to 2013 year. In addition, people affected by the various natural disasters could be classified as invisible victims as they are not recognized as victims either by the state or society, and consequently they do not receive adequate protection, assistance and support. Statistical research was conducted on data from the international database of the Centre for Research on Disaster Epidemiology Disaster (CRED) in Brussels. Temporal analysis examined the distribution and effects of natural disasters on people, at intervals of ten years. The same methodology was adopted for analyses of geospatial distribution of victimized people because of natural disasters by continent. The aim of the research is to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of victimization of people with natural disasters in the world geospace in the period from 1900 to 2013. The survey results clearly indicate an increase in the number and severity of the consequences of natural disasters.
Referenca – Mijalković, S., & Cvetković, V. (2015). Viktimizacija ljudi prirodnim katastrofama – geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija. Temida, časopis o viktimizaciji, ljudskim pravima i rodu, 4(17), 19-43.
Marital status of citizens and floods: citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters (Bračni status građana i poplave: pripremljenost građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama)
This paper presents the results of quantitative research into the influence of marital status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation of relationship between marital status and preparedness. In order to realize research, nineteen communities were randomly selected in which 2,500 persons were surveyed, in 2015. On that occasion, households were questioned using the multi-stage random sample. The research results suggest that married would in the highest percentage give money to help flood victims, long-lasting rains make them to think about preparedness for floods, they know what flood is, they are familiar with viruses and infections that accompany the period during and after the flood, they know where in local community elders, disabled and infants live, they know safety procedures for responding during floods, they would evacuate to a friend’s place. On the other side, divorced citizens in the lowest percentage take preventive measures to reduce tangible consequences caused by floods, they are not yet prepared, but will start preparing next month, they know what flood is, they would evacuate to the upper floors of the house, say that someone at primary/secondary school and within family educated them on floods, they know what to do after an official warning about approach of flood, they got information about floods at faculty, through informal education and through media. The research results can be used in designing strategies and campaigns aimed to raise the level of preparedness of citizens with regard to their marital status. Ovaj rad predstavlja rezultate kvantitativnog istraživanja uticaja bračnog stanja na spremnost građana za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Cilj ovakvog istraživanja je naučno objašnjenje odnosa između bračnog statusa i spremnosti. Da bi se realizovalo istraživanje, 2015. godine nasumično je izabrano devetnaest zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2.500 osoba. Tom prilikom ispitivana su domaćinstva pomoću višefaznog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja sugerišu da bi oženjeni u najvećem procentu dali novac za pomoć žrtvama poplava, dugotrajne kiše nateraju ih da razmišljaju o spremnosti za poplave, znaju šta je poplava, upoznati su sa virusima i infekcijama koji prate period tokom i posle poplave, znaju gde u lokalnoj zajednici žive starešine, invalidi i odojčad, znaju sigurnosne postupke za reagovanje tokom poplava, evakuisali bi se kod prijatelja. S druge strane, razvedeni građani u najmanjem procentu preduzimaju preventivne mere za smanjenje opipljivih posledica izazvanih poplavama, još nisu pripremljeni, ali će početi sa pripremama sledećeg meseca, znaju šta je poplava, evakuisali bi se na gornje spratove kuća, kažu da ih je neko u osnovnoj / srednjoj školi i unutar porodice edukovao o poplavama, znaju šta treba da rade nakon zvaničnog upozorenja o približavanju poplave, informacije o poplavama dobili su na fakultetu, putem neformalnog obrazovanja i putem medija. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti u dizajniranju strategija i kampanja čiji je cilj podizanje nivoa spremnosti građana s obzirom na njihov bračni status.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Marital status of citizens and floods: citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters. Vojno delo, 66 (8), 89-116.
Klimatske promene i nacionalna odbrana (Climate change and national defense)
Klimatske promene, kao jedan od najvećih izazova sa kojim se suočava savremeno društvo, već duže vreme ne prestaju da zaokuplјaju pažnju, kako političke, tako i naučne javnosti. Varijabilnost posledica klimatskih promena, kao i njihovi efekti na životnu sredinu i čovečanstvo, nalaze se na agendi većine međunarodnih skupova, a diskusije o mogućim strategijama za redukciju njihovog uticaja vode se, kako na nacionalnom, tako i na međunarodnom nivou. Ipak, većina ovakvih diskusija ograničavala se pretežno na efekte koje klimatske promene izazivaju u životnoj sredini i, u okviru toga, na efekte koje takve promene mogu imati na život lјudi u smislu dostupnosti osnovnih namirnica i resursa. Prošlo je dosta vremena dok razmatranje posledica klimatskih promena nije izašlo iz okvira studija zaštite životne sredine, a u poslednjih nekoliko godina posebno je evidentan porast svesti o uticaju klimatskih promena na organizovanje i funkcionisanje nacionalne odbrane, posebno u razvijenim zemlјama. Promenjena priroda pretnji postavlјa pred sistem odbrane visoke standarde u pogledu kapaciteta i sposobnosti za efikasan odgovor na njih, a činjenica da klimatske promene pogađaju različite segmente lјudske civilizacije, što u krajnjoj liniji ima uticaja na ispunjavanje misije odbrane, nužno nameće potrebu da se ovoj problematici ubuduće posveti više pažnje. Zato, ovaj rad ima za cilј da, razmatranjem nekih od dominantnih trendova u kretanju klimatskih promena, analizira njihov uticaj na funkcionisanje odbrane u promenjenim ambijentalnim uslovima. Climate change, as one of the biggest challenges facing modern society, has not ceased to occupy the attention of both the political and scientific public for a long time. The variability of the consequences of climate change, as well as their effects on the environment and humanity, are on the agenda of most international gatherings, and discussions on possible strategies for reducing their impact are being conducted, both nationally and internationally. However, most of these discussions have been limited mainly to the effects that climate change has on the environment and, within that, to the effects that such changes can have on human life in terms of access to basic food and resources. It has been a long time since the consideration of the consequences of climate change has gone beyond the scope of environmental studies, and in the last few years there has been a particularly growing awareness of the impact of climate change on the organization and functioning of national defense, especially in developed countries. The changed nature of threats sets high standards for the defense system in terms of capacity and ability to respond effectively, and the fact that climate change affects different segments of human civilization, which ultimately affects the fulfillment of the defense mission, necessarily imposes the need to address this issue in the future. pay more attention. Therefore, this paper aims to, by considering some of the dominant trends in the movement of climate change, analyze their impact on the functioning of defense in changed environmental conditions.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Vučić, S., & Gačić, J. (2015). Klimatske promene i nacionalna odbrana. Vojno delo, 67 (5), 181-203.
Uticaj statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji (The impact of the status of regulated military service on the readiness of citizens to respond to the natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia)
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetaest od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grada Beograda. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje obavilo se u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju u kome je anketirano 2500 građana bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su građani koji su regulisali status vojne obaveze preduzeli određene preventivne mere u cilju smanjenja materijalnih posledica poplave, angažovali bi se na pružanju pomoći žrtvama poplava na, na razmišljanje o spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave, podstiču ih dugotrajne kiše, još uvek nisu spremni, ali nameravaju da to urade u narednih šest meseci itd. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nije nikada sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane obzirom na status regulisane vojne obaveze kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. The aim of the quantitative research is to examine the impact of the status of regulated military service on the readiness of citizens to respond to the natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Having in mind all local communities in Serbia in which the flood occurred or there is a high risk, nineteen of the total of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were selected by random sampling. In selected local communities, the survey was conducted in those parts that were most at risk in terms of water level or potential risk. In the survey itself, in which 2,500 citizens were interviewed, a household survey strategy was applied using a multi-stage random sample. The results of the research indicate that the citizens who have regulated the status of military service have taken certain preventive measures in order to reduce the material consequences of the flood, would be engaged in providing assistance to flood victims, thinking about readiness to react to floods. ready, but intend to do so in the next six months, etc. The originality of the research is reflected in the fact that no research has ever been conducted in Serbia to examine the state of readiness of citizens to react. The results of the research can be used when creating strategies for improving the level of readiness of citizens to react. The research indicates how citizens should be influenced given the status of regulated military service in order to raise readiness to a higher level.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2015). Uticaj statusa regulisane vojne obaveze na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Ecologica, 22(80), 584-590.
Bezbednost učenika od posledica prirodnih katastrofa u školskim objektima (Security among students in school buildings during natural disasters)
U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja percepcije učenika srednjih škola o njihovoj bezbednosti u školskim objektima za vreme prirodnih katastrofa. Autori koriste metod anketiranja učenika kako bi identifikovali i opisali faktore koji utiču na percepciju bezbednosti učenika. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu, za potrebe ovog istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.063 učenika, što čini 4.67% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da se 40,2% učenika oseća bezbedno, 37,8% nije sigurno i 21,8% ističe da se oseća nebezbedno u školskim objektima kada su u pitanju posledice prirodnih katastrofa. Nadalje, rezultati ispitivanja uticaja određenih faktora na percepciju bezbednosti učenika pokazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost sa promenljivama – pol, obrazovanje majke, obrazovanje oca, ostvarena prosečna ocena, dok takva povezanost nije utvrđena sa promenljivama – zaposlenost roditelja, živi sa ocem, sa majkom, dedom i babom. Istraživanje se bazira na područje Beograda, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom području. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija unapređenja bezbednosti učenika u školskim objektima od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, učenici, škola, anketiranje, Beograd. Abstract: This paper presents the results of quantitative research of perception among high school students about their safety in school buildings during natural disasters. The authors use the method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that influence the perception of safety among students. Out of the total population of high school students in Belgrade, for the purpose of this study a sample consisting of 3,063 students was drawn, which makes 4.67% of the population. From a population of 101 Belgrade secondary schools, 13 of them were selected randomly. The research results show that 40.2% of students feel safe, 37.8% are not sure and 21.8% state that feel unsafe in school buildings in terms of the consequences of natural disasters. Furthermore, the research results of the impact of certain factors on the perception of safety among students indicate that there is a statistically significant relationship with variables – sex, mother’s education, father’s education, the average score achieved, whereas such correlation has not been found with variables – employment of parents, living with father, with mother, grandparents. The study is based on the Belgrade area, therefore the findings can be generalized only to the population of high school students in this area. The research results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the safety of students in school buildings against the effects of natural disasters. Key words: safety, natural disasters, students, school, surveying, Belgrade.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Janković, B., & Milojević, S. (2016). Bezbednost učenika od posledica prirodnih katastrofa u školskim objektima. Ecologica, 23(84), 809-815.
Prediction model of effective studies at the Academy of criminalistics and police studies (Predikcioni model efikasnosti studija na Kriminalističko-policijskoj akademiji)
The paper deals with the connection between the input characteristics of students of the Academy of Criminalistic and Police Studies in Belgrade related to the acquired and inherited values and effective studying. Data collection was performed using the questionnaire technique on a sample of 120 students and the logic regression method. The questionnaire comprised 11 closed questions, 10 relating to predictor variables (gender, high school, success in high school, place in which it was finished, going in for sport, respondent’s family and financial situation, whether a member of the family is employed by the Ministry of Interior and the course of studies), and one relating to the criterion variable (studying without repeating years). The results of logic regression showed that the overall model explains between 40.4% and 55.7% of variance in the status of effective studying, and it correctly classified 83.6% of cases. Only five predictor variables provided a unique statistically significant contribution to the model. The paper proved that if a student had a specific set of inherited and acquired characteristics, probability that he/she would study effectively is significantly increased. The paper proved that higher police education institutions should pay attention to the inherited and acquired characteristics at the entrance examination. Unlike any previous research, the paper deals with desired characteristics modelling implying that the candidate has increased chances to study effectively. U radu se govori o povezanosti ulaznih karakteristika studenata Kriminalističko-policijske akademije u Beogradu vezanih za stečene i nasleđene vrednosti i efikasno studiranje. Prikupljanje podataka izvršeno je tehnikom upitnika na uzorku od 120 učenika i metodom logičke regresije. Upitnik se sastoji od 11 zatvorenih pitanja, od kojih se 10 odnosi na prediktorske varijable (pol, srednja škola, uspeh u srednjoj školi, mesto na kojem je završen, bavljenje sportom, porodična i finansijska situacija ispitanika, da li je član porodice zaposlen u Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova i tok studija), i jedan koji se odnosi na kriterijumsku promenljivu (studiranje bez ponavljanja godina). Rezultati logičke regresije pokazali su da ukupni model objašnjava između 40,4% i 55,7% varijanse u statusu efikasnog proučavanja i pravilno je klasifikovao 83,6% slučajeva. Samo pet prediktorskih promenljivih pružilo je jedinstveni statistički značajan doprinos modelu. Rad je dokazao da ako je student imao određeni skup naslednih i stečenih karakteristika, verovatnoća da će efikasno učiti je znatno povećana. U radu se dokazalo da visokoškolske ustanove na prijemnom ispitu treba da obrate pažnju na nasleđene i stečene osobine. Za razliku od bilo kog prethodnog istraživanja, rad se bavi modeliranjem željenih karakteristika, što implicira da kandidat ima veće šanse za efikasno učenje.
Referenca – Milojević, S., Janković, B., & Cvetković, V. (2014). Prediction Model of Effective Studies at the Academy of Criminalistics and Police Studies. NBP – Journal of criminalistics and law, 20 (1), 135-149.
Uticaj motivisanosti na spremnost građana da reaguju na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom (The Impact of the Level of Motivation on the Preparedness of Citizens of the Republic of Serbia to Respond to Natural Disaster Caused by Flood)
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja motivisanosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je dvadeset od ukupno 150 opština i 23 grada i grad Beograd. U odabranim lokalnim zajednicama istraživanje se obavilo u onim delovima koji su bili najugroženiji u odnosu na visinu vode ili potencijalni rizik. U samom anketnom ispitivanju bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na to da su apsolutno motivisani zabeležili viši nivo individualne spremnosti za reagovanje na poplave u odnosu na građane koji smatraju da su apsolutno nemotivisani. Suprotno tome, apsolutno nemotivisani građani ne rade ništa kako bi se pripremili za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Istraživanje ukazuje na način na koji treba uticati na građane, s obzirom na njihovu motivisanost, kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo. Ključne reči: prirodne katastrofe, poplava, građani, motivisanost, spremnost za reagovanje, Srbija. The objective of the quantitative research was to examine the impact of the level of motivation on the preparedness of citizens to respond to natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia affected, or with a high risk to be affected, by flood, twenty of a total of 150 municipalities and 23 cities, as well as the city of Belgrade, were randomly selected. In the selected local communities the research was conducted in those areas that were the most endangered regarding the water level or potential risk. The survey applied the strategy of multi-stage surveying of random sampled households. The research results indicate that those absolutely motivated recorded a higher level of individual readiness to respond to floods as compared to the citizens who believe they are absolutely unmotivated. In contrast, absolutely unmotivated people do nothing to prepare for response. The originality of the research lies in the fact that Serbia has never conducted any research to examine the citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research findings can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond. The research points to the way that should be used to drive the citizens, according to their level of motivation, in order to raise their preparedness to a higher level. Key words: natural disasters, flood, citizens, level of motivation, preparedness to respond, Serbia.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj motivisanosti na spremnost građana Republike Srbije da reaguju na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. Vojno delo, 67(3), 141-171.
Integrisani sistem zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama – sistem „broj 112 za hitne pozive“ – Integrated system of protection and rescue in emergency situations – system “number 112 for emergency calls”
All member states of the European Union has The Integrated protection and rescue system with „SOS 112“ system, and today this is a technical requirement for countries that are seeking to become EU members. Although this system is regulated by Law on Emergency Situations (2009.) and National strategy (2011.) it has not been implemented in Republic of Serbia. In this article the authors analyze the importance and benefits of this system and the main reason why it is not implemented so far. U radu su predstavlјeni rezultati analize postojećeg sistema zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama i kao klјučni nedostaci istaknuti neuspostavlјenost Integrisanog sistema zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama i u okviru njega „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“. Ovaj sistem imaju sve države članice Evropske unije i danas predstavlјa tehnički uslov za zemlјe koje žele da postanu članice EU. Zakonski preduslovi za postojanje ovakvog sistema u Republici Srbiji postoje, ali Integrisani sistem zaštite i spasavanja i „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“ još uvek nisu zaživeli u praksi, iako je Zakon o vanrednim situacijama usvojen 2009. godine, a Nacionalna strategija 2011. godine. Sistem „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“ je složen i skup, izgrađivaće se godinama, a podrazumevaće velike materijalne, tehničke, kadrovske, ali prvenstveno finansijske resurse koje u ovom trenutku Republika Srbija nema, što predstavlјa i glavni razlog zašto ovaj sistem do danas nije uspostavlјen. Nacrt Izmena i dopuna Zakona o Vanrednim situacijama iz 2011. godine predviđao je finansiranje ovog sistema iz pretplate korisnika fiksne i mobilne telefonije, međutim ovaj predlog se nije našao u skupštinskoj proceduri. Poslednje izjave predstavnika resornih ministarstva nagoveštavaju ideje o donatorstvima kao načinu finansiranja sistema, a što će svakako predstavlјati posebani izazov imajući u vidu da su države koje imaju sistem „Broj 112 za hitne pozive“, taj sistem finansirale sopstvenim sredstvima.
Referenca – Lipovac, M., & Cvetković, V. (2015). Problemi u implementaciji evropskih standarda u Republici Srbiji u oblasti integrisanog sistema zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama – broj 112 za hitne pozive. Evropsko zakonodavstvo, 14 (54), 300-306.
Spremnost građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom – Readiness of the citizens of Loznica to react to the natural disaster caused by the earthquake
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje spremnosti građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom. U anketnom ispitivanju u kome je anketirano 154 građana Loznice bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da su ispitanici u Loznici zabeležili više srednje vrednosti u odnosu na istraživanje sprovedeno u Japanu kod sledećih kategorija: zalihe (Loznica – M = 2,88; Higasihiama – M = 2,37), specijalne potrebe (Loznica – M = 3,23; Higasihiama – M = 2,57), požar (Loznica – M = 3,24; Higasihiama – M = 2,60), brojevi hitnih službi (Loznica – M = 3,12; Higasihiama – M = 2,47). Sa druge strane, ispitanici u Higasihiamiju zabeležili su više srednje vrednosti kod skupova pitanja: povezanost u lokalnoj samoupravi (Loznica – M = 2,87; Higasihiama – M =2,97) i sklonište (Loznica – M = 2,67; Higasihiama – M = 2,97). T – testom nezavisnih uzoraka utvrđenja je statistički značajna razlika rezultata pola i zaposlenosti ispitanika sa ocenom spremnosti domaćinstva za reagovanje prilikom zemljotresa. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u realizaciji kvantitativnog istraživačkog pristupa sa ciljem utvrđivanja nivoa i faktora uticaja na spremnost građana za reagovanje prilikom zemljotresa. Istraživanje ima značajnu naučnu i praktičnu vrednost imajući u vidu implikacije rezultata istraživanja na unapređenje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Takođe, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti u koncipiranju strategija i kampanja usmerenih na unapređenju spremnosti građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe izazvane zemljotresom. The aim of quantitative research is to examine citizen preparedness in Loznica to respond to a natural disaster caused by earthquakes. Test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample was applied in the process of citizen survey conducted during 2015. The sample consisted of 154 adult citizens of Loznica. The research results indicate that respondents in Loznica scored higher mean values in the following sets of questions: supplies (Loznica – M = 2.88; Higasihiama – M = 2.37), special needs (Loznica – M = 3.23; Higasihiama – M = 2.57), fire (Loznica – M = 3.24; Higasihiama – M = 2.60), emergency numbers (Loznica – M = 3.12; Higasihiama – M = 2.47). On the other hand, respondents in Higasihiama scored higher mean values in the following sets of questions: connections in local government (Loznica – M = 2.87; Higasihiama – M = 2.97) and shelter (Loznica – M = 2.67; Higasihiama – M = 2.97). The originality of the research lies in realization of quantitative research approaches aimed to determination of level and impact factors on citizen preparedness to respond in an earthquake. The research has important scientific and practical value, bearing in mind the implications of research results on improving preparedness of citizens to respond. Also, the results of research can be used directly or indirectly in outlining strategies and campaigns aimed at improving citizen preparedness to respond to natural disasters caused by an earthquake.
Referenca – Sandić, M., Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2016). Spremnost građana Loznice za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu zemljotresom. Ecologica, 81, 40-48.
Influence of Income Level on Citizen Preparedness for Response to Natural Disasters – Uticaj nivoa dohotka na spremnost građana za odgovor na prirodne katastrofe
The aim of quantitative research is to examine the influence of income level on the citizen preparedness for response to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where occurred or there is a high risk of flood occurrence, nineteen of 150 municipalities and 23 cities and the city of Belgrade were randomly chosen. In selected communities the research was performed in those areas that were most affected in relation to the water level or potential risk. The survey applied test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results indicated that the citizens who had income above RSD 90,000 at the household level, in a higher percentage took preventive measures, they know what floods are and know the safety procedures. On the other hand, citizens who have income below RSD 25,000 are not yet prepared, or intend to take certain measures in the next 6 months. The originality of the research stems from the fact of unexamined influence of income level on citizen preparedness. The research results can be used when creating strategies to improve the preparedness of citizens for response. The originality of the research is reflected in the fact that Serbia has not examined the influence of income level on preparedness of citizens to respond. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizen preparedness for response with regard to the level of citizen incomes. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja je ispitivanje uticaja nivoa dohotka na spremnost građana za odgovor na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik od pojave poplava, nasumično je izabrano devetnaest od 150 opština i 23 grada i grad Beograd. U odabranim zajednicama istraživanje je sprovedeno u onim područjima koja su bila najviše pogođena u odnosu na nivo vode ili potencijalni rizik. Istraživanje je primenilo strategiju ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da su građani koji su na nivou domaćinstva imali prihode veće od 90.000 dinara, u većem procentu preduzeli preventivne mere, znaju šta su poplave i poznaju bezbednosne postupke. S druge strane, građani koji imaju prihode ispod 25.000 dinara još uvek nisu pripremljeni ili nameravaju da preduzmu određene mere u narednih 6 meseci. Originalnost istraživanja proizlazi iz činjenice neispitanog uticaja nivoa dohotka na spremnost građana. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se koristiti pri kreiranju strategija za poboljšanje spremnosti građana za odgovor. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da Srbija nije ispitala uticaj nivoa prihoda na spremnost građana da odgovore. Rezultati se mogu koristiti prilikom kreiranja strategije za poboljšanje nivoa spremnosti građana za odgovor s obzirom na nivo dohotka građana.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Influence of income level on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters. Vojno delo, 66(4), 100-127.
The fear of natural disaster caused by flood (Strah od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavama)
The subject of quantitative research is a determination of fear level of natural disaster caused by flood and examination its relationships with demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens. The aim of such research is a scientific explanation relationships nature of these characteristics and fear. In order to realize research, randomly was selected nineteen communities in which was surveyed 2,500 persons in 2015. On that occasion, it was applied test strategy in households for the application of the multi-stage random sample. According to the survey, 49.7% of respondents said they feel fear, 16.1% were not sure, and 33.2% do not feel the fear of natural disasters caused by flooding. In addition, the results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the fear to sex, age, education, marital status, employment status, income level, swimming abilities and the type of ownership of the facility in which to live, until such a relationship does not exist with level of religiosity and success in high school. Social and scientific justification of the research arising from the necessity to examine the situation and the level of citizens’ fear of natural disaster caused by flood with a view to taking some proactive measures aimed to offset the fear by taking certain measures of preparedness to react in such situations. The research results might be used in planning the psychological help and support to citizens in the stages of preparation, response and recovery from natural disasters. Keywords: security, natural disaster, citizens, fear, floods, demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Sažetak: Predmet kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa straha od prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom i ispitivanje njegove povezanosti sa demografskim i socioekonomskim karakteristikama građana. Cilj takvog istraživanja predstavlja naučna eksplinacija prirode povezanosti navedenih karakteristika i straha. U cilju realizacije istraživanja, metodom slučajnog uzorka, odabrano je devetnaest lokalnih zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2500 građana u toku 2015. godine. Tom prilikom, bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Sudeći po rezultatima istraživanja, 49,7% ispitanika ističe da oseća strah, 16,1% nije sigurno, i 33,2% ne oseća strah od prirodne katastrofe izazvane poplavom. Pri tome, rezultati ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost straha sa polom, godinama starosti, obrazovanjem, bračnim statusom, statusom zaposlenosti, visinom prihoda, plivačkim sposobnostima i vrstom vlasništva nad objektom u kojem se živi, dok takva povezanost ne postoji sa nivom religioznosti i uspehom u srednjoj školi. Društvena i naučna opravdanost istraživanja proizilaze iz neophodnosti ispitivanja stanja i nivoa straha građana od prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom sa ciljem preduzimanja određenih proaktivnih mera usmerenih ka kompenzaciji straha kroz preduzimanje određenih mera spremnosti za reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Rezultati istraživanja mogu se iskoristiti u koncipiranju psihološke pomoći i podrške građanima u fazama pripreme, odgovora i oporavka od posledica prirodnih katastrofa. Ključne reči: bezbednost, prirodne katastrofe, građani, strah, poplave, demografske i socio ekonomske karakteristike.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Sandić, M. (2016). The fear of natural disaster caused by flood. Ecologica, 23 (82), 202-209.
Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters – Uticaj klimatskih promena an distribuciju ekstremnih temperatura kao prirodnih katastrofa
Much of the scientific community agrees that global temperature as a result of climate change has increased significantly in the last century, and will continue to grow in the near future. According to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2001 (IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 degrees in the 20th century, although climate warming was not uniform neither spatially nor temporally, as was indicated by observed changes and modelling studies. Variations in global or regional cases of extreme air temperatures occurred due to changes in climate, cause more and more attention lately as living beings and ecosystems and human society are sensitive to the severity, frequency and persistence of cases of extreme temperatures. In this regard, in order to effectively protect and response to emergencies caused by harmful temperature extremes, it is necessary among other things to investigate comprehensively mentioned natural phenomenon, so that the subject of this paper will be an analysis of climate change as well as form, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperatures. Using an international database on natural disasters of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), based in Brussels, with the support of program for statistical analysis (SPSS) and the method of thematic cartography, we have tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of extreme temperature in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural hazard.. Veliki deo naučne zajednice slaže se da se globalna temperatura kao rezultat klimatskih promena znatno povećala u prošlom veku i nastaviće da raste u bliskoj budućnosti. Prema Trećem izveštaju o proceni IPCC-a, 2001. (IPCC – Međuvladin panel za klimatske promene), globalna srednja temperatura porasla je za oko 0,6 stepeni u 20. veku, iako zagrevanje klime nije bilo jednoobrazno ni prostorno ni vremenski, kao što je naznačeno uočenim promenama i studijama modeliranja. Varijacije u globalnim ili regionalnim slučajevima ekstremnih temperatura vazduha nastale su usled klimatskih promena, koje u poslednje vreme uzrokuju sve više pažnje jer su živa bića i ekosistemi i ljudsko društvo osetljivi na ozbiljnost, učestalost i trajnost slučajeva ekstremnih temperatura. S tim u vezi, radi efikasne zaštite i reagovanja u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim štetnim ekstremnim temperaturama, neophodno je, između ostalog, istražiti sveobuhvatno pomenuti prirodni fenomen, tako da će predmet ovog rada biti analiza klimatskih promena kao i oblika , posledice, vremenska i geoprostorna raspodela ekstremnih temperatura. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metodu tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendovi, posledice, vremenska i geoprostorna raspodela ekstremnih temperatura u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i potreba za adekvatnim odgovorom društva na ovu vrstu prirodne opasnosti.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2015). Impact of climate change on the distribution of extreme temperatures as natural disasters. Vojno delo, 66(6), 21-42.
Influence of employment status on citizen preparedness for response to natural disasters (Uticaj statusa zaposlenosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe)
The consequences of floods that affected the area of Serbia in 2014 indicated a very low level of preparedness of population to respond to natural disasters. Therefore, the aim of quantitative research is to examine the impact of fear on the willingness of citizens to respond to a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Bearing in mind all local communities in Serbia where floods occurred or there is a high risk of flooding, randomly it was selected sample consisting 19 of 150 municipalities and 23 towns and the city of Belgrade The survey used strategy of testing in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research results show that: citizens who are employed, in a higher percentage/greater extent compared to citizens who are not: have taken certain preventive measures aimed at reducing the tangible consequences of floods, would pay funds to an account to help flood victims, would engage in providing help to flood victims in the field, heavy rains make them to think on preparedness for response and water level rise, they engaged in preparations for at least 6 months, do not do anything that would raise the level of preparedness to the next level etc. The originality of the research lies in the fact that in Serbia it has never been conducted research to examine the state of preparedness of citizens to respond. Bearing in mind that the research is based on the territory of Serbia, conclusions can be generalized to the entire population. The research results can be used when creating a strategy for improving the level of preparedness of citizens to respond. e poplava koje su zadesile područje Srbije u toku 2014. go ine ukazale su na veoma nizak stepen spremnosti stanovništva za reagovanje u takvim prirodnim katastrofama. Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje uticaja zaposlenosti na spremnost građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Imajući u vidu sve lokalne zajednice u Srbiji u kojima se dogodila ili postoji visok rizik da se dogodi poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je 19 od ukupno 150 opština, 23 grada i grada Beograda. U samom anketnom ispitivanju u kojem je učestvovalo 2.500 građana bila je primenjena strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Originalnost istraživanja ogleda se u činjenici da u Srbiji nikada nije sprovedeno istraživanje kojim bi se ispitalo stanje spremnosti građana za reagovanje. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija za unapređenje nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje s obzirom na njihovu zaposlenost. Istraživanje ukazuje na koji način treba uticati na građane s obzirom na status zaposlenosti kako bi se spremnost podigla na viši nivo.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj zaposlenosti na spremnost građana za reaogovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom. NBP – Žurnal za kriminalistiku i pravo, 20 (2), 49-94.
Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija šumskih požara (Geospatial and temporal distribution of forest fires)
Šumski požari predstavljaju jednu od najznačajnijih opasnosti savremene civilizacije čije proučavanje zahteva složen, sveobuhvatan i multidisciplinaran pristup. Posledice šumskih požara često su razorne po život, zdravlje i imovinu ljudi, ali i po bezbednost države i čitave međuarodne zajednice. U tom smislu, radi efikasnije zaštite i sprečavanja ozbiljnog poremećaja funkcionisanja društva, odnosno velikih ljudskih, materijalnih i ekoloških gubitaka koji prevazilaze sposobnost pogođenog društva da se izbori sa situacijom, odnosno stanjem prirodne katastrofe, potrebno je sveobuhvatno istražiti navedeni prirodni fenomen. U ovom članku tumače se i objašnjavaju forma, posledice, vremenski i geoprostorni raspored ispoljavanja šumskih požara. Koristeći međunarodnu bazu podataka o prirodnim katastrofama Centra za istraživanje epidemiologije katastrofa (CRED) sa sedištem u Briselu, uz podršku programa za statističku analizu (SPSS) i metoda tematske kartografije, pokušali smo da ukažemo na broj, trendove, posledice, vremensku i geoprostornu distribuciju šumskih požara u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine, kao i na potrebu adekvatnog odgovora društva na tu vrstu prirodne katastrofe. Forest fires represent one of the most significant dangers of modern civilization, the study of which requires a complex, comprehensive and multidisciplinary approach. The consequences of forest fires are often devastating for the life, health and property of people, but also for the security of the state and the entire international community. In that sense, in order to more effectively protect and prevent serious disruption of society, ie large human, material and environmental losses that exceed the ability of the affected society to cope with the situation, ie the state of natural disaster, it is necessary to comprehensively investigate this natural phenomenon. This article explains and explains the form, consequences, time and geospatial distribution of forest fires. Using the international database on natural disasters of the Brussels-based Center for Disaster Epidemiology Research (CRED), with the support of the Statistical Analysis Program (SPSS) and thematic cartography methods, we tried to indicate the number, trends, consequences, temporal and geospatial distribution of forest fires in the period from 1900 to 2013, as well as the need for an adequate response of society to this type of natural disaster.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Gačić, J., & Jakovljević, V. (2016). Geoprostorna i vremenska distribucija šumskih požara kao prirodnih katastrofa. Vojno delo, 68 (2), 108-127.
The position and role of Frontex in implementation of new European union border security policy (Mesto i uloga Fronteks-a u sprovođenju nove politike granične bezbednosti evropske unije)
This paper presents results of the analysis of the Council Regulation (EC) No 2007/2004 on establishing the European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders of the Member States of the European Union (FRONTEX). Also, the analysis of other regulations that amended the Regulation No 2007/2004 has been completed. The mentioned Regulation was made after the abolition of controls at internal borders of the EU when the Member States remained responsible for the control and surveillance of external borders in accordance with the common rules on standards and procedures for the control of external borders. FRONTEX was established to reinforce the security of external borders of the EU, with the role of coordinating the operational cooperation between the countries. This paper analyses the organization of FRONTEX, and it also presents its role in implementation and coordination of joint operations, pilot projects, rapid interventions, as well as situations and conditions in which teams of European border guards are to be engaged. It provides a special view regarding the cooperation of FRONTEX with institutions outside the EU relevant to the issues of border security, particularly in those countries that have been identified as sources and transit routes of illegal migration, within the framework of working arrangements concluded with those bodies. FRONTEX has signed such Working Arrangement on establishing operational cooperation with the Ministry of the Interior of the Republic of Serbia. The Organizational unit of the MoI of the Republic of Serbia that realizes direct cooperation with this agency is the Border Police Directorate. The paper stated that Serbia as a candidate country for membership in the EU is working closely with the mentioned Agency. However, there is still room for improvement in this cooperation. Before its full membership in the EU, Serbia will have to adjust all the procedures in line with standards set by FRONTEX, for which substantial funds will be needed. Da bi se ispoštovao jedan od klјučnih principa Evropske unije, sloboda kretanje lјudi, Šengenskim sporazumom su ukinute granice između država EU. Države članice EU su nakon ukidanja kontrole na unutrašnjim granicama, ostale odgovorne za kontrolu i nadzor spolјnih granica. Radi jačanja sigurnosti spolјnih granica EU, s ulogom koordinacije u operativnoj saradnji država članica Evropske unije, pridruženih šengenskih država i drugih partnera, osnovana je Evropska agencija za upravlјanje operativnom saradnjom na spolјnim granicama država članica Evropske unije (FRONTEKS). Srbija kao država kandidat za članstvo u EU usko sarađuje sa pomenutom Agencijom. Međutim, u toj saradnji još ima mesta za napredak. Pre punopravnog članstva u EU Srbija će u narednom periodu morati da uskladi sve svoje procedure u skladu sa standardima koje je uspostavio FRONTEKS, za šta će biti neophodna pozamašna novčana sredstva. Klјučne reči: FRONTEKS, granična bezbednost, spolјne granice, Evropska unija, Srbija
Referenca – Janković, B., & Cvetković, V. (2016). Mesto i uloga FRONTEKS-a u sprovođenju nove politike granične bezbednosti Evropske unije. Evropsko zakonodavstvo, 55 (56-57), 265-277.
The project “Natural Albania” as a threat to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia (Projekat ,,Prirodne Albanije“ kao pretnja teritorijalnom integritetu Republike Srbije)
Tokom čitavog stoleća bile su prisutne opasnosti od etničkog ujedinjenja Albanaca muslimanske veroispovesti. Organizovano i sistematsko postupanje albanskih separatista na području Kosova i Metohije, kao i akcije i ideje koje se čuju širom Balkana, pokazuje da je projekat „nezavisno Kosovo“ samo deo, ili prelazna etapa, jedne znatno kompleksnije vizije „svi Albanci u jednoj državi“, što dovodi u pitanje postojeće međunarodno priznate granice i ugrožava bezbednost ne samo Republike Srbije, već i celog Balkana. Rukovodeći se narastajućim pretnjama bezbednosti, u radu su izneti rezultati analize karakteristika sve aktuelnije pretnje projekta „Velike Albanije“ po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Temeljnim pregledom literature, autori nastoje da utvrde u kojoj meri je takav projekat prepoznat u akademskoj, odnosno naučnoj i stručnoj zajednici kao realna pretnja po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Tokom čitavog stoleća bile su prisutne opasnosti od etničkog ujedinjenja Albanaca muslimanske veroispovesti. Organizovano i sistematsko postupanje albanskih separatista na području Kosova i Metohije, kao i akcije i ideje koje se čuju širom Balkana, pokazuje da je projekat „nezavisno Kosovo“ samo deo, ili prelazna etapa, jedne znatno kompleksnije vizije „svi Albanci u jednoj državi“, što dovodi u pitanje postojeće međunarodno priznate granice i ugrožava bezbednost ne samo Republike Srbije, već i celog Balkana. Rukovodeći se narastajućim pretnjama bezbednosti, u radu su izneti rezultati analize karakteristika sve aktuelnije pretnje projekta „Velike Albanije“ po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Temeljnim pregledom literature, autori nastoje da utvrde u kojoj meri je takav projekat prepoznat u akademskoj, odnosno naučnoj i stručnoj zajednici kao realna pretnja po teritorijalni integritet Republike Srbije. Throughout the century, there were dangers from the ethnic unification of Albanians of the Muslim faith. Organized and systematic actions of Albanian separatists in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as actions and ideas heard throughout the Balkans, show that the “independent Kosovo” project is only part, or a transitional stage, of a much more complex vision of “all Albanians in one state”, calling into question existing internationally recognized borders and endangers the security not only of the Republic of Serbia, but also of the entire Balkans. Guided by the growing security threats, the paper presents the results of the analysis of the characteristics of the increasingly current threat of the “Greater Albania” project to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia. With a thorough review of the literature, the authors try to determine the extent to which such a project is recognized in the academic, ie scientific and professional community as a real threat to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia. Throughout the century, there were dangers from the ethnic unification of Albanians of the Muslim faith. Organized and systematic actions of Albanian separatists in Kosovo and Metohija, as well as actions and ideas heard throughout the Balkans, show that the “independent Kosovo” project is only part, or a transitional stage, of a much more complex vision of “all Albanians in one state”, calling into question existing internationally recognized borders and endangers the security not only of the Republic of Serbia, but also of the entire Balkans. Guided by the growing security threats, the paper presents the results of the analysis of the characteristics of the increasingly current threat of the “Greater Albania” project to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia. With a thorough review of the literature, the authors try to determine the extent to which such a project is recognized in the academic, ie scientific and professional community as a real threat to the territorial integrity of the Republic of Serbia.
Referenca – Filipović, M., & Cvetković, M. V. (2019). Projekat ,,Prirodne Albanije“ kao pretnja teritorijalnom integritetu Republike Srbije. Vojno delo, 71(4), 114-125.
Edukacija građana o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa korišćenjem multimedijalnih sadržaja – društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice i simulacije (Citizens’ education about disaster risk reduction using multimedia content – social games, computer games and simulations)
Polazeći od značaja edukacije građana i dece o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa, u radu su izneti rezultati teorijskog istraživanja u okviru kojeg su identifikovani, analizirani i interpretirani dostupni i širom sveta korišćeni multimedijalni sadržaji od značaja za podizanje svesti i znanja građana o načinima reagovanja u uslovima katastrofa. Korišćenjem analize sadržaja, opisane su najznačajnije karakteristike edukacije u školama i društvenih igara, primene kompjuterskih igrica i simulacija, postojećih kurseva i obuka, edukativnih video snimaka i različitih postera, brošura i vodiča za potrebe smanjenja rizika od katastrofa. Rezultati teorijskog istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni kao polazna osnova u koncipiranju edukativnih materijala građana i dece na području Srbije kako bi se sistematski i efikasno podigao nivo njihove spremnosti za reagovanje. Svakako, pre implementacije određenog edukativnog materijala, potrebno je sprovesti empirijsko istraživanje u kojem bi trebalo testirati efikasnost njegove implementacije i uspešnosti podizanja nivoa znanja i svesti o rizicima. Ključne reči: bezbednost, edukacija građana i dece, multimedijalni sadržaji, društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice. Considering the importance of citizens and children education on disaster risk reduction, the paper presents the results of theoretical research in the framework of which have been identified, analyzed and interpreted available and around the world used important multimedia content for the citizens awareness and knowledge about how to react in terms of disaster. The most important characteristics of education in schools, social games, computer games, simulations, existing courses, training, educational videos, and various posters, brochures, and guides for disaster risk reduction are described. The results of the present theoretical research can be used as a starting point in conceiving educational materials for citizens and children in Serbia with the aim to systematically and efficiently raise the level of their willingness to react. Certainly, before the implementation of a specific educational material, empirical research should be conducted in which the effectiveness of its implementation and the effectiveness of raising awareness and awareness of risks should be tested.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Katarina, A. (2019). Edukacija građana o smanjenju rizika od katastrofa korišćenjem multimedijalnih sadržaja – društvene igre, kompjuterske igrice i simulacije. Vojno delo, 71(6), 122-151.
Činioci uticaja na donošenje odluka o sprovođenju evakuacije u uslovima katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima: studija slučaja Beograda (Factors influencing decision-making on the implementation of evacuation in terms of disasters caused by fires in residential buildings: a case study of Belgrade)
U teoriji o katastrofama postoje nekonzistentni rezultati istraživanja u pogledu načina uticaja određenih činilaca na blagovremeno i adekvatno donošenje odluka o sprovođenju evakuacija u uslovima katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima. Predmet istraživanja predstavlja ispitivanje stavova građana u pogledu pristanka na evakuaciju, načinu i barijerama njenog sprovođenja, ali i uticaju internih (demografskih, socio-ekonomskih i psiholoških) činilaca na sprovođenje evakuacije u katastrofama izazvanim požarima na teritoriji Republike Srbije. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi se najveći broj građana evakuisao prilikom izbijanja požara u stambenim objektima. Pored toga, utvrđen je statistički značajan uticaj određenih demografskih i socio-ekonomskih činilaca na donošenje takvih odluka. U odnosu na građane koji bi odbili da se evakuišu, potrebno je sprovesti naknadna istraživanja kako bi se utvrdilo zašto oni odbijaju da se evakuišu i kojim se razlozima najviše rukovode. In disaster theory, there are inconsistent research results regarding how certain factors influence the timely and adequate decision-making on conducting evacuations in the conditions of catastrophes caused by fires in residential buildings. The subject of the research is to examine the attitudes of citizens regarding the consent to evacuation, the manner and barriers to its implementation, but also the impact of internal (demographic, socio-economic, and psychological) factors on evacuation in disasters caused by fires in Serbia. The results of the research show that the largest number of citizens would be evacuated when fires broke out in residential buildings. In addition, a statistically significant influence of certain demographic and socio-economic factors on making such decisions was found. About citizens who would refuse to evacuate, subsequent research is needed to determine why they refuse to evacuate and for what reasons they are most guided.
Referenca – Mumović, N., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Činioci uticaja na donošenje odluka o sprovođenju evakuacije u uslovima katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima: studija slučaja Beograda. Vojno delo, 71(7), 142-163.
Uticaj akutnog mentalnog stresa na performanse gađanja: implikacije na obuku pripadnika bezbednosnih službi (The Impact of Acute Mental Stress on Shooting Performance: Implications for Security Training)
Cilj naučnog rada predstavlja ispitivanje povezanosti akutnog mentalnog stresa i perfomansi gađanja iz službenog pištolja CZ 99. Ispitanici su gađali u stacionarnu metu iz pištolja sa daljine od 10 m., sa po pet metaka. Za procenu stresa korišćen je parametar srčane frekvencije (HR) koja je merena monitorom srčane frekvencije, pre i za vreme gađanja. Ispitanici su bili studenti muškog pola (30), sa Kriminalističko-policijskog univerziteta u Beogradu koji prethodno nisu imali nikakav kontakt sa vatrenim oružjem. Prosečna srčana frekvencija ispitanika u stanju mirovanja iznosila je M = 66.24 (SD – 6.58), a na vatrenoj liniji M = 105.13 (SD – 17.63). Nakon završene obuke, prosečna srčana frekvencija ispitanika na vatrenoj liniji iznosila je M = 105.10 (SD – 15.14). Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da ne postoji statistički značajna povezanost između srčane frekvencije sa performansama gađanja. Povišena srčana frekvencija kod ispitanika pri gađanju, ukazuje da su ispitanici tokom gađanja doživeli akutni mentalni stres. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da bi prilikom treninga pripadnika bezbednosnih službi, pored tehničkog, taktičkog i fizičkog aspekta, trebalo posvetiti više pažnje ulozi i značaju mentalnog stresa. Ključne reči: akutni stres, pištolj, perfomasne gađanja, bezbednosne službe, istraživanje. The aim of the scientific work is to examine the relationship between acute mental stress and the performance of shooting from a CZ 99 service pistol. The subjects fired at a stationary target from a pistol from a distance of 10 m, with five bullets each. The heart rate (HR) parameter measured by the heart rate monitor, before and during shooting, was used to assess stress. The respondents were male students (30), from the Criminal Police University in Belgrade, who had no previous contact with firearms. The average heart rate of the subjects at rest was M = 66.24 (SD – 6.58), and on the firing line M = 105.13 (SD – 17.63). After completing the training, the average heart rate of the subjects on the firing line was M = 105.10 (SD – 15.14). The results of the research show that there is no statistically significant correlation between heart rate and shooting performance. Elevated heart rate in the subjects during shooting, indicates that the subjects experienced acute mental stress during the shooting. The results of the research show that during the training of members of the security services, in addition to the technical, tactical and physical aspects, more attention should be paid to the role and importance of mental stress. Key words: acute stress, gun, performance shooting, security services, research.
Referenca – Janković, B., Cvetković, M. V., Vučković, G., & Milojević, S. (2019). Uticaj akutnog mentalnog stresa na perfomanse gađanja: implikacije na obuku pripadnika bezbednosnih službi. Vojno delo, 71(6), 112-121.
Mobilni komunikacioni sistemi i aplikacije od značaja za integrisano upravljanje u katastrofama (Mobile communication systems and important aplications for integrated disaster management)
Savremeno upravljanje u katastrofama uslovljava iznalaženje optimalnih rešenja u pogledu mobilnih komunikacionih sistema i aplikacija koje se mogu koristiti za unapređivanje efikasnosti sistema zaštite i spasavanja. Multidisciplinarnost i suštinska komplikovanost procesa upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa uslovljava korišćenje različitih logističkih alata i opreme. U tom smislu, informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije igraju značajnu ulogu jer one na svojevrstan način podižu nivo sposobnosti ljudi za brzo odlučivanje i smanjuju mogućnosti nastanka različitih grešaka. U radu se opisuju karakteristike i načini korišćenja najpoznatiji mobilnih aplikacija koje se širom sveta koriste u integrisanom upravljanju katastrofama sa ciljem pružanja pomoći i podrške pripadnicima interventno-spasilačkih jedinica i drugim ugroženim građanima. Pored toga, sveobuhvatno se sagledavaju postojeći i očekivani izazovi i problemi u normalnom funkcionisanju mobilnih komunikacionih sistema i aplikacija u uslovima katastrofa. Modern disaster management requires finding optimal solutions in terms of mobile communication systems and applications that can be used to improve the efficiency of protection and rescue systems. The multidisciplinarity and essential complexity of the disaster risk management process requires the use of various logistics tools and equipment. In that sense, information and communication technologies play a significant role because they in a way raise the level of people’s ability to make quick decisions and reduce the possibility of various errors. The paper describes the characteristics and ways of using the most famous mobile applications that are used worldwide in integrated disaster management with the aim of providing assistance and support to members of emergency rescue units and other vulnerable citizens. In addition, the existing and expected challenges and problems in the normal functioning of mobile communication systems and applications in the conditions of disasters are comprehensively considered.
Referenca – Svrdlin, M., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Mobilni komunikacioni sistemi i aplikacije od značaja za integrisano upravljanje katastrofama. Vojno delo, 71(7), 164-177.
Značaj i uloga privatnih vojnih kompanija u rešavanju savremenih problema nacionalne i međunarodne bezbednosti (Significance and role of private military companies in solving contemporary problems of national and international security)
Pitanje sistema unutrašnje bezbednosti države i dalje nastavlja da zaokuplja veliku pažnju kako međunarodne javnosti, tako i političkih činilaca i običnih ljudi u mnogim zemljama. Takva situacija je postala očigledna, imajući u vidu sve učestalije terorističke aktivnosti na međunarodnom planu i probleme koji nastaju delovanjem organizovanih transnacionalnih kriminalnih grupa. Rukovodeći se time, a polazeći od pregleda strane i domaće literature, autori u prvom delu rada opisuju karakteristike sukoba niskog intenziteta sa osvrtom na slabe države, zatim razmatraju konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih kompanija, kao i njihovu povezanost sa mirovnim misijama Ujedinjenih nacija i privatne vojne kompanije kao multiplikatore oružanih snaga. U drugom delu rada, autori analiziraju i sagledavaju ulogu privatnih vojnih kompanija u eksploataciji prirodnih resursa u zemljama visokog bezbednosnog rizika, ali i njihovu ulogu u sistemu unutrašnje bezbednosti i borbe protiv organizovanog kriminala. Ključne reči: bezbednost, privatne vojne kompanije, nacionalna i međunarodna bezbednost, uloga. The issue of the state’s internal security system continues to occupy great attention of both the international public and political actors and ordinary people in many countries. Such a situation has become apparent, given the increasing terrorist activity at the international level and the problems arising from the activities of organized transnational criminal groups. Guided by this, and starting from a review of foreign and domestic literature, the authors in the first part of the paper describe the characteristics of low-intensity conflicts with reference to weak states, then discuss the conceptual foundations of private military companies and their connection with United Nations peacekeeping missions and private military companies. as multipliers of the armed forces. In the second part of the paper, the authors analyze and consider the role of private military companies in the exploitation of natural resources in countries with high security risk, but also their role in the system of internal security and the fight against organized crime.
Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, M. V. (2019). Značaj i uloga privatnih vojnih kompanija u rešavanju savremenih problema nacionalne i međunarodne bezbednosti. Vojno delo, 71(3), 73-94.
The role of education in natural disaster risk reduction (Uloga obrazovanja u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa)
Pitanje sistema unutrašnje bezbednosti države i dalje nastavlja da zaokuplja veliku pažnju kako međunarodne javnosti, tako i političkih činilaca i običnih ljudi u mnogim zemljama. Takva situacija je postala očigledna, imajući u vidu sve učestalije terorističke aktivnosti na međunarodnom planu i probleme koji nastaju delovanjem organizovanih transnacionalnih kriminalnih grupa. Rukovodeći se time, a polazeći od pregleda strane i domaće literature, autori u prvom delu rada opisuju karakteristike sukoba niskog intenziteta sa osvrtom na slabe države, zatim razmatraju konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih kompanija, kao i njihovu povezanost sa mirovnim misijama Ujedinjenih nacija i privatne vojne kompanije kao multiplikatore oružanih snaga. U drugom delu rada, autori analiziraju i sagledavaju ulogu privatnih vojnih kompanija u eksploataciji prirodnih resursa u zemljama visokog bezbednosnog rizika, ali i njihovu ulogu u sistemu unutrašnje bezbednosti i borbe protiv organizovanog kriminala. Ključne reči: bezbednost, privatne vojne kompanije, nacionalna i međunarodna bezbednost, uloga. The issue of the state’s internal security system continues to occupy great attention of both the international public and political actors and ordinary people in many countries. Such a situation has become apparent, given the increasing terrorist activity at the international level and the problems arising from the activities of organized transnational criminal groups. Guided by this, and starting from a review of foreign and domestic literature, the authors in the first part of the paper describe the characteristics of low-intensity conflicts with reference to weak states, then discuss the conceptual foundations of private military companies and their connection with United Nations peacekeeping missions and private military companies. as multipliers of the armed forces. In the second part of the paper, the authors analyze and consider the role of private military companies in the exploitation of natural resources in countries with high security risk, but also their role in the system of internal security and the fight against organized crime.
Referenca – Ivanov, A., & Cvetković, V. (2014). The role of education in natural disaster risk reduction. Horizons, international scientific journal, 10 (16), 16,115-131, 2014.
Sistem upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama (Emergency Management System in the United States)
Pitanje sistema unutrašnje bezbednosti države i dalje nastavlja da zaokuplja veliku pažnju kako međunarodne javnosti, tako i političkih činilaca i običnih ljudi u mnogim zemljama. Takva situacija je postala očigledna, imajući u vidu sve učestalije terorističke aktivnosti na međunarodnom planu i probleme koji nastaju delovanjem organizovanih transnacionalnih kriminalnih grupa. Rukovodeći se time, a polazeći od pregleda strane i domaće literature, autori u prvom delu rada opisuju karakteristike sukoba niskog intenziteta sa osvrtom na slabe države, zatim razmatraju konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih kompanija, kao i njihovu povezanost sa mirovnim misijama Ujedinjenih nacija i privatne vojne kompanije kao multiplikatore oružanih snaga. U drugom delu rada, autori analiziraju i sagledavaju ulogu privatnih vojnih kompanija u eksploataciji prirodnih resursa u zemljama visokog bezbednosnog rizika, ali i njihovu ulogu u sistemu unutrašnje bezbednosti i borbe protiv organizovanog kriminala. Ključne reči: bezbednost, privatne vojne kompanije, nacionalna i međunarodna bezbednost, uloga. The issue of the state’s internal security system continues to occupy great attention of both the international public and political actors and ordinary people in many countries. Such a situation has become apparent, given the increasing terrorist activity at the international level and the problems arising from the activities of organized transnational criminal groups. Guided by this, and starting from a review of foreign and domestic literature, the authors in the first part of the paper describe the characteristics of low-intensity conflicts with reference to weak states, then discuss the conceptual foundations of private military companies and their connection with United Nations peacekeeping missions and private military companies. as multipliers of the armed forces. In the second part of the paper, the authors analyze and consider the role of private military companies in the exploitation of natural resources in countries with high security risk, but also their role in the system of internal security and the fight against organized crime.
Referenca – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V., Veličković, M. (2012). Sistem upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama u Sjedinjenim Američkim državama. Vojno delo, 64 (1), 89-105.
Mogućnosti zloupotrebe oružja za masovno uništavanje (Possibilities of Weapon of Mass Destruction Abuse for Terrorist Purposes)
Nesporna destruktivnost oružja za masovno uništavanje i razvoj njegove proliferacije s jedne, kao i ekspanzija ekstremizma i terorizma u svetu, s druge strane, ukazuju na povećan rizik od moguće upotrebe navedenog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Uz to, otežana detekcija i identifikacija pomenutih opasnih materija, koja dodatno usložnjava postupanje snaga zaštite i spasavanja na mestu terorističkog događaja, još više inspiriše lidere terorističkih grupa da se domognu ovog oružja. S tim u vezi, u radu je učinjen osvrt na (ne)posrednu vezu između ovog oružja i terorističkih grupa, daje se generalni pregled oružja za masovno uništavanje koja se mogu iskoristiti u terorističke svrhe i ispituje se realnost i mogućnost njegove upotrebe radi ostvarenja terorističkih cilјeva. Undeniable destructiveness of weapons of mass destruction and their proliferation development, on the one hand, and the expansion of extremism and terrorism in the world, on the other hand, indicate an increasing risk of their misuse for terrorist purposes. Besides, difficulties of detection and identification of those hazardous materials, which further make it more complex for defence and rescue forces to react at the site of a terrorist attack, additionally motivate the leaders of terrorist groups to acquire these weapons. Subsequently, this paper made a retrospective of the( in)direct connection between these weapons and terrorist groups, giving a general overview of weapons of mass destruction that could be used for terrorist purposes, and examining the certainty and possibility of their misuse to achieve terrorists’ goals.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Popović, M. (2011). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe oružja za masovno uništavanje u terorističke svrhe. Bezbednost, 53 (2), 149-168.
Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije suša kao prirodnih katastrofa (Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Drought as Natural Disaster)
As climatological disasters, droughts increasingly jeopardize the safety of people and their property, creating serious environmental problems including the negative impact on the environment. For these and other reasons, the droughts as a natural disaster are beginning to attract more attention of researchers all over the world who want to better comprehend them in the phenomenological and quantitative terms. Bearing in mind that this is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, the most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about the drought is the statistical method. Guided by this fact, the subject of research is a descriptive statistical analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of drought in the world during the period 1900-2013. In addition, a statistical study was conducted in such a way that the first step taken in the form of raw data Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels and then analyzed in the SPSS statistical analysis of data. Within geospatial analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought across continents and countries was considered, with special emphasis on the five most vulnerable countries to the total number and variety of consequences. On the same principle, within the temporal analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of drought on annual, monthly and daily basis was examined, with special reference to the five most important in the number of different effects (killed, injured, affected, homeless). In this sense, for effective and efficient protection and emergency response due to the deleterious effect of drought, it is inter alia stated comprehensively investigate natural phenomena using statistical method and the method of thematic mapping with the objective descriptions consequence, geospatial and timing of the manifestation of drought.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Bošković, D. (2015). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije suša kao prirodnih katastrofa. Bezbednost, 56 (3), 148-165.
Factors of influence to the knowledge and perception of secondary school students in Belgrade about natural disasters caused by landslides (Faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim klizištima)
Cilj kvantitativnog istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa i faktora uticaja na percepciju i stvarno znanje učenika srednjih škola na teritoriji Grada Beograda o klizištu kao prirodnoj katastrofi. U radu se koristi metod anketiranja učenika kako bi se identifikovali i opisali faktori koji utiču na znanje i percepciju učenika o klizištu. Iz ukupne populacije učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu (65.561 učenika), za potrebe istraživanja izvučen je uzorak veličine 3.548 učenika, što čini 5.4% populacije. Iz populacije od 101 Beogradske srednje škole na slučajan način izabrano je njih 13. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da na znanje učenika o klizištu statistički značajno utiču (p<0,05): pol, starost, obrazovanost oca, uspeh u školi; na percepciju: pol, strah od prirodnih katastrofa, edukacija u porodici i školi; i na poznavanje bezbednosne procedure reagovanja: starost, uspeh u školi, život u domaćinstvu sa dedom, edukacija u porodici i školi. Istraživanjem je obuhvaćen Grad Beograd, tako da se zaključci mogu generalizovati samo na populaciju učenika srednjih škola na tom geoprostoru. Imajući u vidu evidentan nedostatak obrazovanja o prirodnim katastrofama u Srbiji, rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti prilikom kreiranja strategija obrazovnih programa, što bi doprinelo unapređenju bezbednosne kulture mladih, a time i njihove bezbednosti. The quantitative research aims to determine the levels and factors influencing the perception and actual knowledge of high school students in the City of Belgrade about the landslide as a natural disaster. The paper uses the method of surveying students to identify and describe the factors that affect students’ knowledge and perception of landslides. From the total population of high school students in Belgrade (65,561 students), for the needs of the research, a sample of 3,548 students was drawn, which makes 5.4% of the population. From the population of 101 Belgrade high schools, 13 were randomly selected. The results of the research show that students’ knowledge of the landslide is statistically significantly affected (p <0.05): gender, age, father’s education, school success; on perception: gender, fear of natural disasters, education in the family and school; and knowledge of the safety response procedure: age, school success, household life with grandfather, family and school education. The research covers the City of Belgrade so that the conclusions can be generalized only to the population of high school students in that geospace. Having in mind the evident lack of education on natural disasters in Serbia, the results of the research can be used when creating strategies for educational programs, which would contribute to the improvement of the safety culture of young people, and thus their safety.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Faktori uticaja na znanje i percepciju učenika srednjih škola u Beogradu o prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim klizištima. Bezbednost, 57(1), 32-51.
Ispitivanje stavova građana o mogućnostima zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe – Examining the attitudes of citizens about the possibilities of abusing chemical weapons for terrorist purposes
Starting from the seriousness of the consequences of disasters caused by terrorist attacks, quantitative research was conducted with the aim of scientifically describing the attitudes of citizens on important issues regarding the possibilities of abusing chemical weapons for terrorist purposes. The research was conducted on a sample of 115 respondents from the area of the city of Belgrade using a simple random sample. The obtained research results show that a high percentage of citizens know the negative consequences of chemical weapons. Also, it was determined that citizens differently assess the probability that a terrorist attack with chemical weapons will occur in The Republic of Serbia. In addition, it is noticeable that the public in Serbia does not perceive chemical terrorism as a threat, as well as the complete distrust of citizens in the readiness of state and non-state institutions in The Republic of Serbia to respond to disasters caused by terrorist attacks using chemical weapons. The lack of an empirical basis on the possibilities of abusing such weapons for terrorist purposes unequivocally testifies to the scientific contribution of the conducted research. On the other hand, the social significance of the research is reflected in the creation of preconditions for the integrated improvement of the level of security of the citizens of RS. Continuous research needs to be continued in order to demystify many research issues in the field of terrorist risk management. Polazeći od ozbilјnosti posledica katastrofa izazvanih terorističkim napadima, sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje sa cilјem naučne deskripcije stavova građana o značajnim pitanjima o mogućnostima zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Istraživanje je sprovedeno na uzorku od 115 ispitanika sa područja grada Beograda korišćenjem prostog slučajnog uzorka. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da visok procenat građana poznaje negativne posledice hemijskog oružja. Takođe, utvrđeno je da građani različito procenjuju verovatnoću da će se teroristički napad hemijskim oružjem dogoditi u Republici Srbiji. Pored toga, primetno je i da javnost u Srbiji ne doživlјava hemijski terorizam kao pretnju, kao i potpuno nepoverenje građana u pripremlјenost državnih i nedržavnih institucija u Republici Srbiji da odgovore na katastrofe izazvane terorističkim napadima upotrebom hemijskog oružja. Nepostojanje empirijske baze o mogućnostima zloupotrebe takvog oružja u terorističke svrhe nedvosmisleno svedoči o naučnom doprinosu sprovedenog istraživanja. S druge strane, društveni značaj istraživanja se ogleda u stvaranju pretpostavki za integrisano unapređenje nivoa bezbednosti građana RS. Potrebno je nastaviti sa kontinuiranim sprovođenjem istraživanja kako bi se demistifikovala mnogobrojna istraživačka pitanja iz oblasti upravlјanja rizicima od terorističkih napada.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Mlinar, M. (2020). Ispitivanje stavova građana o mogućnostima upotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe: studija slučaja Beograd. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 16 (1-2), 3-18.
Uticaj demografskih faktora na nivo informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The influence of demographic factors on the level of citizen awareness on the police responsibilities in natural disasters)
Sprovedeno istraživanje imalo je za cilј da utvrdi prirodu povezanosti demografskih karakteristika građana u Republici Srbiji i njihove u informisanosti o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama. Uzimajući u obzir sve opštine u Srbiji u kojima postoji rizik od poplava, metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je njih devetnaest. U odabranim opštinama primenom višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka anketirano je 2500 građana u onim delovima i domaćinstvima koji su ugroženi u odnosu na nivo stogodišnje visoke vode. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost ispitivanih demografskih karakteristika (pol, godine starosti, nivo obrazovanja i uspeh u srednjoj školi) i informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Samo 22% ispitanika je istaklo da je informisano o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Informisanost je najviša u vezi nadležnosti vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom, pri čemu su građani starosti od 48 do 58 godina u najvećoj meri informisani o nadležnostima policije. Građani koji imaju visoko obrazovanje zabeležili su viši nivo informisanosti o nadležnostima policije u odnosu na građane sa završenom srednjom/četvorogodišnjom školom. Takođe, utvrđena je statistički značajna razlika rezultata kod muškaraca i žena u pogledu informisanosti. Rezultati istraživanja se mogu iskoristiti za proaktivno pobolјšanje informisanosti građana imajući u vidu bezbednosne implikacije po sam rad policije u takvim situacijama. Društvena i naučna opravdanost istraživanja proizilazi iz neophodnosti sveobuhvatne analize rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama i njegove ocene od strane građana. The research was aimed to determine the nature of the relationship between demographic characteristics of citizens in the Republic of Serbia and their awareness on the police responsibilities in natural disasters caused by flooding. Taking into account all municipalities in Serbia in which there is a risk of flooding, ninetee were randomly selected. In selected municipalities by using a multi-stage random sample 2,500 citizens were surveyed in those areas and households that are more vulnerable in relation to the level of a hundred year high water. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant correlation between the demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and success in high school) and the awareness of citizens on the responsibilities of the police in natural disasters. Only 22% of respondents noted that they are informed on the police responsibilities in natural disasters. Awareness is the highest in respect of responsibilities of fire and rescue units in natural disasters caused by flooding, whereby citizens aged 48 to 58 years are best informed on the police responsibilities. Citizens with university degrees showed a higher level of awareness about the police responsibilities compared to the citizens with completed secondary/four-year school. Also, there is a statistically significant difference in the results for men and women in terms of awareness. The research results can be used to proactively improve the awareness of citizens, bearing in mind the security implications for policing itself in such situations. Social and scientific justification of the research stems from the necessity of a comprehensive analysis of police work in natural disasters and its assessment by the citizens.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Milojković, B. (2016). Uticaj demografskih faktora na nivo informisanosti građana o nadležnostima policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Bezbednost, 38 (2), 8-17.
Comparative analysis of national security strategy of Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro (Komparativna analiza nacionalnih strategija bezbednosti Albanije, Makedonije i Crne Gore)
Strategija nacionalne bezbednosti jedne zemlje predstavlja jedan od najznačajnijih strateških dokumenata. Njime se reguliše organizacija, razvoj, funkcionisanje, ali i sva druga pitanja koja se odnose na sistem nacionalne bezbednosti. Upravo stoga, njihovom analizom može se steći uvid u osnovne smernice kojima se država direktno/indirektno rukovodi u ostvarivanju svoje bezbednosti. Takođe, kvalitetnijim i opsežnijim zapažanjima se može zaključiti da li su države suštinski bile zainteresovane da na jedan ozbiljan i valjan način donesu najvažniji strateški dokument u oblasti bezbednosti ili je pažnja bila usmerena na ispunjavanje određenih formi. Autori u radu, detaljnom analizom i komparacijom nacionalnih strategija bezbednosti preispituju strukturnu formu, karakteristike i osnovne smernice kojima su se Albanija, Makedonija i Crna Gora rukovodile prilikom njihovog koncipiranja. Takođe, ispituju se sve sličnosti, razlike i protivrečnosti koje se mogu pronaći u njima. Konkretnije rečeno, cilj rada je komparacija strategija na osnovu kriterijuma: interesi i ciljevi, bezbednosno okruženje, izazovi, rizici i pretnje i politika nacionalne bezbednosti. The national security strategy of a country is one of the most important strategic documents. It regulates the organization, development, operation and all other matters relating to the national security. It is, therefore, their analysis can gain an insight into the basic guidelines that state directly / indirectly guided in the exercise of their safety. Also, higher quality and more extensive observations we can conclude that there are essentially states that were interested in a serious and valid way to make a key strategic document in the field of security and attention was focused on the fulfillment of certain forms. The authors of the paper, a detailed analysis and comparison of national security strategy review structural form, characteristics and basic guidelines that are Albania, Macedonia and Montenegro mind during their conception. Also examined are the similarities, differences and contradictions to be found in them. More specifically, the aim of this work was to compare strategies on the basis of the following criteria: interests and goals, the security environment, the challenges, risks and threats and national security policy.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Stojković, D. (2014) Komparativna analiza nacionalnih strategija bezbednosti Albanije, Makedonije i Crne Gore. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 10 (3-4), 239-251.
Uticaj demografskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The impact of demographic factors on the expectation of assistance from the police in natural disasters)
In this work, subject of quantitative research is to examine the level and factors influencing the expectation of assistance from the police in the natural disaster caused by floods the Republic of Serbia with the aim of scientific explanations nature of such relationship. The survey was conducted in 19 local communities with risk of flooding. Test strategy in households with the use of a multi-stage random sample was applied in the process of citizen survey conducted during 2015 with 2500 citizens. The research results show that there is a statistically significant correlation between the expectations of assistance from the police in the natural disasters caused by floods and sex and age, while it is not determined by the level of education and success in high school subjects. The research results can be used to improve the working of police in natural disasters caused by flooding. U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja nivoa i faktora uticaja na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom u Republici Srbiji sa cilјem naučnog objašnjenja prirode takve povezanosti. Istraživanje je obavlјeno u 19 opština u Srbiji u kojima postoji rizik od nastanka poplava. Istraživanje je realizovano primenom strategije anketnog ispitivanja u domaćinstvima korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka kojim je obuhvaćeno 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost očekivanja pomoći od policije sa polom i godinama starosti, dok ona nije utvrđena sa nivoom obrazovanja i uspehom u srednjoj školi. Orginalnost istraživanja proizilazi iz uspostavlјenih početnih osnova za unapređenje rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavama u Srbiji.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Uticaj demografskih faktora na očekivanje pomoći od policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Srpska nauka danas, 1 (1), 8–17.
Privatne vojne kompanije u modernom dobu – Private military companies in the modern age
Velike sile su oduvek koristile usluge privatnih vojnih kompanija za potrebe ostvarivanja svojih vojnih i nevojnih ciljeva. Iako je to često bilo sakriveno od očiju javnosti, završetkom hladnog rata stvoreni su višestruki preduslovi za ubrzanije razvijanje privatnog sektora bezbednosti, a u okviru njega i privatnih vojnih kompanija. Smanjenje vojnih budžeta, kao i druge poteškoće u angažovanjima regularnih vojnih jedinica doprineli su značajnom ulasku privatnih vojnih kompanija na svetsku scenu kroz njihova mnogobrojna angažovanja od strane državnog sektora bezbednosti. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu na jedan vrlo sistematičan način analiziraju razvoj različitih karakteristika privatnih vojnih kompanija sa posebnim osvrtom na vrste i tipove usluga koje one pružaju. Pored toga, sagledavaju se konceptualne osnove privatnih vojnih tržišta, ali i karakteristike privatnih vojnika i plaćenika. The Great Powers have always used the services of private military companies to achieve their military and non-military goals. Although this was often hidden from the public eye, the end of the Cold War created multiple preconditions for the more rapid development of the private security sector, and within it private military companies. Reductions in military budgets, as well as other difficulties in the engagement of regular military units, have contributed to the significant entry of private military companies on the world stage through their numerous engagements by the state security sector. Guided by this, the authors analyze the development of various characteristics of private military companies in a very systematic way, with special reference to the types and types of services they provide. In addition, the conceptual foundations of private military markets are considered, as well as the characteristics of private soldiers and mercenaries.
Referenca – Vraćević, N., & Cvetković, V. (2019). Privantne vojne kompanije u modernom dobu. Vojno delo, 71(2), 42-54.
Fenomenologija prirodnih katastrofa: teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija (Phenomenology of natural disasters: theoretical determination and classification)
In the scientific literature, domestic and international, theoretical definition and classification of natural disasters is a very topical issue. Necessity and motivation of authors to establish a concise definition, stems from the need for clear demarcation of a disaster than anything else, and the first since it averages concepts such as hazards, crises and emergency situations. Of course, the interest from the definition arises from the need to describe the field of study and create the conditions for the accumulation of knowledge and theory building. At the same time, researchers in the field of disaster studies, meet with discussions and debates about the demarcation of the conceptual definition of disaster. The research results show that the theoretical definition of natural disasters followed: the social environment within which it was created, a discipline that originated from, purpose, geographical region of origin, etc. When looking at their formation, it is noticed that the first definition given by linguists and that they are largely held specific cultures and languages within which they were made. Over time they have evolved from multilateral changing the world. Many of them, although at first sight contradictory, produced in the same categorical domains. Based on different theoretical and empirical grounds. Also, is not the same as the definition of disaster phenomena or areas of study. Researchers often fall into the trap that the conceptual basis of phenomena such as disaster, replaced explanations as to what does and how society act in such situations. Due to the foregoing, when defining and classification of natural disasters, it is necessary to be very cautious and thorough. In particular, it is necessary to take into account to cover aspects of causes, characteristics and consequences of such a phenomenon. U naučnoj literaturi, domaćoj i svetskoj, teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa predstavlјa veoma aktuelno pitanje. Neophodnost i motivisanost autora za uspostavlјanje konciznih definicija proizilazi iz potrebe jasnog razgraničenja katastrofa od svega ostalog, a najpre od njemu srodnih koncepata kao što su opasnosti, krize i rizici. Svakako, interes od definisanja proizilazi iz potrebe da se opiše oblast proučavanja i stvore uslovi za akumulaciju znanja i izgradnju teorija. Pri tome, istraživači iz oblasti studija katastrofa, susreću se i sa diskusijama i debatama oko razgraničenja pojmovnog određenja katastrofa od vanrednih situacija. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je teorijsko određenje prirodnih katastrofa pratilo: društveni ambijent u čijim okvirima je i nastalo, naučnu disciplinu iz koje je poteklo, svrhu, geografski region nastanka itd. Kada se posmatra njihov nastanak, primećuje se da su prve definicije date od strane lingvista i da su one u velikoj meri održavale specifičnosti kulture i jezika u sklopu koga su i nastale. Vremenom su evoluirale u skladu sa višestranim promenama u svetu. Veliki broj njih, iako na prvi pogled protivrečne, nastaju u okviru istog kategoričnog domena. Počivaju na različitim teorijskim i empirijskim osnovama. Takođe, nije isto definisanje katastrofe kao fenomena ili oblasti proučavanja. Istraživači često upadaju u zamku da konceptualne osnove fenomena kao što je katastrofa, zamenjuju objašnjenjima šta čini i kako društvo deluje u takvim situacijama. Predmet rada predstavlјa teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa, sa posebnim osvrtom na njene posledice.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Fenomenologija prirodnih katastrofa – teorijsko određenje i klasifikacija prirodnih katastrofa. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 11 (3 – 4), 311-335.
Kvalitativno istraživanje pripremljenosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama (Qualitative research of citizens preparedness for natural disasters)
The paper presents the results of qualitative research on the readiness of citizens in Serbia to respond to natural disasters caused by the flood. The study used the recommended intentional sample and interviews were conducted with persons who are from the area of local communities at risk of flooding. The sample included ten participants from Loznica, Šabac, Sremska Mitrovica, Priboj, Batočina, Sečanj, Novi Sad, Lapovo and Rekovac who were asked an identical set of basic questions, after which the discussions were directed according to estimates of their interest, sincerity, and seriousness. The results of the conducted research allow gaining more insight into how much citizens are willing to respond and to create a broader picture of the relationship that citizens have towards the obligation of preparing for natural disasters. Key words: natural disaster, flood, perception, knowledge, supplies, stock, interview, Serbia. U radu su izneti rezultati kvalitativnog istraživanja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama izazvanim poplavom u Srbiji. U istraživanju je korišćen preporučeni namerni uzorak i intervju je obavljen sa informantima sa područja lokalnih zajednica ugroženih poplavom. Uzorkom je obuhvaćeno deset učesnika iz Loznice, Šapca, Sremske Mitrovice, Priboja, Batočine, Sečnja, Novog Sada, Lapova i Rekovca. Učesnicima je postavljen identičan set osnovnih pitanja, nakon čega su razgovori bili usmeravani shodno procenama zainteresovanosti, iskrenosti i ozbiljnosti. Rezultati sprovedenog istraživanja omogućavaju sticanje kvalitetnijih uvida u spremnost građana za reagovanje i stvaranje šire slike o odnosu koji građani imaju prema obavezi pripremanja za prirodne katastrofe.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Andrejević, T. (2016). Qualitative research readiness of citizens to respond to natural disasters. Serbian science today, 1 (3), 393-404.
Spremnost za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu – pregled literature (Preparedness for natural disasters – review of the literature)
U naučnoj literaturi ne postoji jasan konsenzus u pogledu teorijskog određenja, kao i načina (prirode) uticaja raznovrsnih faktora na spremnost za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe. Upravo stoga, sistematičnim pregledom postojećih istraživanja i primenjenih teorijskih koncepata, moguće je uočiti neophodnost njihove dalјe sistematizacije, a posebno potrebe dalјeg objašnjenja međusobne povezanosti demografskih, socioekonomskih i psiholoških faktora sa nivoom spremnosti za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu. Shodno tome, predmet rada predstavlјa deskripcija i analiza relevantnih naučnih radova (88) sa cilјem njihovog razvrstavanja prema kriterijumima teorijskog određenja i faktora uticaja na nivo spremnosti za reagovanje na prirodne katastrofe. Rezultati istraživanja omogućavaju jasan uvid u mrežu postojećih teorijskih objašnjenja i faktora koji utiču na nivo spremnosti. Pretraga postojećih radova u domaćoj i stranoj literaturi izvršena je uz pomoć servisa ,,Google scholar“, popularne mreže kooperativnog ,,on line“ bibliografskog sistema i servisa (COBISS), srpskog citatnog indeksa (SCI) i portala konzorcijuma biblioteka Srbije za objedinjenu nabavku (KoBSON). In the scientific literature, there is no clear consensus on the theoretical determination, as well as ways (nature) the impact of various factors on the preparedness to respond to natural disasters. Precisely with this, a systematic review of existing research and applied theoretical concepts, it is possible to perceive the necessity of their further systematization, and in particular the need for further explanation of the interconnectedness of demographic, socio-economic and psychological factors with the level of readiness to respond to a natural disaster. Accordingly, the subject of this paper is a description and analysis of relevant scientific papers (88) with a view to their classification according to the criteria of theoretical determination and factors affecting the level of preparedness for responding to natural disasters. The research results provide a clear insight into the network of existing theoretical explanations and the factors that influence the level of preparedness. Search existing work in domestic and foreign literature was carried out with the help of service ,,Google scholar“, a popular network of cooperative ,,on line“ bibliographic systems and services (COBISS), Serbian Citation Index (SCI) and portal consortium of Serbian library purchase (CoBSON).
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Spremnost za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu – pregled literature. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 11 (1-2), 165-183.
Povezanost uspeha u srednjoj školi i spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama (Relationship between success in secondary school and citizens preparedness for natural disaster)
This paper presents the results of quantitative research of relationship between success in secondary school and citizens preparednesss to respond a natural disaster caused by the flood in the Republic of Serbia. Research was conducted in 2015 in 19 municipalities in Serbia where there is a risk of flooding. Research was conducted using the strategy of a survey in households using multi-stage random sample that included 2,500 citizens. The research results indicate that there is a statistically significant between certain variables: preventive measures, financial resources, raising the river, level of preparedness, individual. preparedness, household preparedness, community preparedness and etc. The originality of the research stems from the fact unexamined influence success in high school on preparedness of citizens. The results can be used when creating a strategy to improve the level of citizens’ preparedness to respond with regard to success in secondary school. U radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja povezanosti uspeha u srednjoj školi i spremnosti građana za reagovanje na prirodnu katastrofu izazvanu poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Istraživanje je obavlјeno 2015. godine u 19 opština u Srbiji sa prisutnim rizikom od nastanka poplava. Realizovano je primenom strategije anketnog ispitivanja u domaćinstvima korišćenjem višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka kojim je obuhvaćeno 2500 građana. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju da postoji statistički značajna povezanost sa određenim promenlјivama: preventivne mere, novčana sredstva, podizanje nivoa reka, nivo spremnosti, ndivid. spremnost, spremnost domaćinstva, spremnost lok. zajednice, spremnost države itd. Orginalnost istraživanja proizilazi iz činjenice neispitanog uticaja uspeha u srednjoj školi na spremnost građanā. Rezultati mogu biti iskorišćeni prilikom kreiranja strategije unapređenja nivoa spremnosti građana za reagovanje s obzirom na uspeh u srednjoj školi koji su ostvarili građani.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2016). Povezanost uspeha u srednjoj školi i spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnim katastrofama. Bezbjednost, policija i građani, 12(3-4), 61-84.
Istraživanje stavova građana o pripremljenosti za katastrofe izazvane šumskim požarima: studija slučaja Prijepolje (Research on the attitudes of citizens on preparedness for a disaster caused by forest fires: a case study of Prijepolje)
Starting with the severity of wildfires and the fact that about one third of the territory of Polimlje consists of forests and that wildfires are relatively common in Prijepolje, the aim of our research is to examine the influencing factors of certain independent variables (sex, marital status, age, education, etc.) on different dimensions of preparedness for a disaster caused by wildfires. By multi-stage random sampling, starting with the theory of planned behavior, a survey was conducted in 15 settlements within the municipality of Prijepolje on a sample of 197 respondents. The results of the survey indicate a low level of preparedness among the inhabitants of Prijepolje (citizens generally believe that they do not have the necessary knowledge to respond to disasters caused by wildfires and are generally not interested in attending training; they do not have plans or equipment for response and the majority of them think wildfires do not pose any danger to them). Also, the influence of certain factors on the attitudes toward preparedness was unequivocally determined. The scientific significance of the survey is reflected in the creation of preconditions for the improvement of empirical knowledge in the area of disaster risk management, while the practical significance is reflected in the creation of preconditions for improving the safety of citizens from wildfires. Polazeći od ozbilјnosti šumskih požara i činjenice da oko jednu trećinu teritorije Polimlјa čine šume i da su šumski požari relativno česta pojava u Prijepolјu, predmet istraživanja predstavlјa ispitivanje činioca uticaja određenih nezavisnih promenlјivih (pol, bračni status, starost, obrazovanje itd) na različite dimenzije pripremlјenosti za katastrofu uzrokovanu šumskim požarima. Višeetapnim slučajnim uzorkovanjem, polazeći od teorije planiranog ponašanja, sprovedeno je anketno ispitivanje na teritoriji 15 naselјa opštine Prijepolјa i, tom prilikom, uzorkom je obuhvaćeno 197 ispitanika. Rezultati istraživanja ukazuju na nizak nivo pripremlјenosti kod stanovnika Prijepolјa (građani, uglavnom, veruju da ne poseduju neophodno znanje za reagovanje u katastro- fama uzrokovanim šumskim požarima, pretežno nisu zainteresovani za pohađanje obuke, ne poseduju planove i opremu za reagovanje i većina ne smatra da im preti opasnost od šumskih požara). Takođe, nedvosmisle- no su utvrđeni i uticaji određenih faktora na stavove o pripremlјenosti. Naučni značaj istraživanja ogleda se u stvaranju preduslova za unapređenje empirijskog fonda saznanja iz oblasti upravlјanja rizicima od katastrofa, dok se praktični značaj ogleda u stvaranju preduslova za unapređenje bezbednosti građana od šumskih požara.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Filipović, B. (2020). Istraživanje stavova građana o pripremljenosti za katastrofe izazvane šumskim požarima: studija slučaja Prijepolje. Žurnal za bezbjednost i kriminalistiku, 2(2), 11-24.
Assessment of Women’s Vulnerability and their Coping Mechanism Living in Flood prone Areas: A Case Study of Belkuchi Upazila, Sirajgan (Procena ranjivosti žena i mehanizmi njihovog suočavanja sa posledicama u oblastima izloženim poplavama: studija slučaja Belkuči Upazila, Sirajganj)
Women are the most vulnerable in a disastrous situation compared to their male counterpart. It is evident in several studies that among all other natural disasters, flood causes immense sufferings of women due to the low standard of living condition in flood prone areas of Bangladesh and poor institutional arrangement. The geographical location and low elevation of land with numerous rivers is caused Bangladesh most vulnerable to flooding. This research is focused to explore women’s vulnerability at the community level due to flood and possible coping mechanisms. Both secondary and primary data have been used and analyzed to identify vulnerability and women’s coping mechanism with flood at Khidrachappur, Baradul in Belkuchi Upazila. The study found that the flood has adverse impacts which are different for different population groups. In reality, women are affected more severely and their role is quite negligible in decision making, and participation in training related to flood issues is also insignificant. Women suffer from physical injuries and are often evicted from their dwellings due to floods. Difficulties in finding adequate shelter, food, safe water, and fuel for cooking, as well as problems in maintaining personal hygiene and sanitation, prevent women from performing their usual roles at home. Despite this heavy burden, which women bear in extremely difficult circumstances, they demonstrate considerable fortitude and ingenuity in their attempts to cope with the flood by taking several steps like selling assets, moving towards high place, storing dry food, social networking, borrowing money, collecting safe drinking water and managing household activities etc. It was noted that despite all adversities women can cope with the flood situation and show their resilience capacity. Žene su ranjivije u odnosu na muškarce za vreme katastrofalnih situacija. U mnogim studijama zabeleženo je da od svih prirodnih katastrofa za vreme poplava žene doživlјavaju ogromne patnje pogotovo zbog niskog životnog standarda i lošeg institucionalnog angažmana u oblastima sa visokim rizikom nastanka poplava u Bangladešu. Geografska lokacija i niža nadmorska visina terena sa većim brojem reka čini Bangladeš veoma ugroženim. Predmet istraživanja odnosi se na ispitivanje ranjivosti žena i načine preživlјavanja posledica poplava. Primarni i sekundarni podaci analizirani su kako bi se identifikovala ranjivost i mehanizmi suočavanja žena sa posledicama poplava u Kidrahapuru, Baradulu u Belkuhi Upazili. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su da posledica poplava različito utiču na muškarce i žene. Takođe, utvrđeno je da žene doživlјavaju ozbilјnije posledice, da je njihova uloga u procesu odlučivanju poprilično zanemarena, kao i učestvovanje u obukama. Teškoće prilikom pronalaska adekvatnog smeštaja, hrane i vode, problemi u održavanju lične higijene onemogućavaju žene da obavlјaju svoje svakodnevne aktivnosti u domaćinstvima. Uprkos poteškoćama sa kojima se susreću za vreme katastrofa, one pokazuju istrajnost i genijalnost u pokušajima da se izbore sa poplavom pa često preduzimaju sledeće mere: prodaja i preselјenje u delove zajednica sa višom nadmorskom visionom, skladištenje suve hrane, pozajmlјivanje novca. Dakle, pored svih nedaća žene su pokazale da su kadre da se suoče sa posledicama poplava.
Referenca – Kutub, J. R., Cvetković, V. M., & Huq, S. (2017). Assessment of Women’s Vulnerability and their Coping Mechanism Living in Flood-prone Areas: A Case Study of Belkuchi Upazila, Sirajganj. Serbian Science Today, 2(1), 35-43.
Mogućnosti zloupotrebe biološkog oružja u terorostičke svrhe (Possibilities of misuse of biological weapons for terrorist purposes)
Vekovima unazad biološki agensi su korišćeni za ratovanje, terorističke ili kriminalne aktivnosti. Može se reći da je izgledalo da će potpisivanje Konvencije o biološkom oružju doprineti da ono postane samo neprijatna uspomena na vremena kada se upotrebljavalo. Međutim, bioterorizam je postao realnost savremenog sveta zbog svojih karakteristika i posledica koje uzrokuje. Pri tome, ekspanzija visoke tehnologije s jedne i sposobnost biološkog oružja da izazove ,,masovno uništavanje“ ili ,,masovne žrtve“ s druge strane, pomera fokus javnosti i stručnjaka sa pitanja ,,da li će se“ na pitanje ,,kada će se dogoditi teroristički napad biološkim oružjem“. Upravo stoga u radu je dat osvrt na pojam, klasifikaciju i istorijat upotrebe biološkog oružja. Takođe je dat i generalni pregled mogućnosti njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe i zaštite od biološkog oružja. Centuries ago, biological agents were used for warfare, terrorist or criminal activities. It can be said that the signing of the Convention on Biological Weapons seemed to contribute to the fact that it became only an unpleasant memory of the times when it was used. However, bioterrorism has become a reality of the modern world due to its characteristics and the consequences it causes. At the same time, the expansion of high technology on the one hand and the ability of biological weapons to cause “mass destruction” or “mass casualties” on the other, shifts the focus of the public and experts from “will” to “when” a terrorist attack with biological weapons occurs. ” That is why the paper gives an overview of the concept, classification and history of the use of biological weapons. A general overview of the possibilities of its use for terrorist purposes and protection against biological weapons was also given.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2015). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe biološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Bezbednost, 55 (1), 122-140.
Naučni rad u tematskom zborniku nacionalnog značaja i u tematskom zborniku međunarodnog značaja
Informaciono-logistički sistemi i baze podataka od značaja za integrisano upravlјanje u katastrofama – Information-logistics systems and databases important for integrated disaster management
Poteškoće u procesu upravlјanja u katastrofama uslovlјene su delovanjem mnogobrojnih faktora kao što su složenost i velika brzina širenja štetnih dejstava opasnosti, nedostatak pravovremenih i tačnih informacija, komplikovanost donošenja klјučnih odluka, nemogućnost sagledavanja celokupne situacije u kratkom vremenskom periodu, složenost upravlјanja neophodnim resursima itd. Iz tih razloga, efikasno reagovanje na katastrofe je uslovlјeno dostupnošću različitih podataka koji su pothranjeni u mnogobrojnim međunarodnim i nacionalnim bazama podataka koje se mogu koristiti u realnom vremenu. Osim toga, donosioci odluka su prinuđeni da koriste različite informacione sisteme i alate koji im omogućavaju brze i tačne proračune u cilјu donošenja odgovarajućih odluka u konkretnoj situaciji. Rukovodeći se time, autori u radu primenom metode analize sadržaja i pregledom literature, identifikuju, analiziraju i sveobuhvatno sistematizuju i opisuju značajne karakteristike takvih baza i informacionih sistema. Cilј naučnog rada predstavlјa naučna deskripcija informaciono-logističkih sistema i baza podataka od značaja za upravlјanje u katastrofama. Naučni značaj rada ogleda se u sistematizaciji naučnih saznanja o prednostima i nedostacima korišćenja informacionih sistema i baza podataka o katastrofama. Nasuprot tome, društvene implikacije rada ogledaju se u informisanju nadležnih službi o postojanju i mogućnostima korišćenja informacionih sistema i baza podataka u konkretnim slučajevima upravlјanja u katastrofama. Klјučne reči: bezbednost, katastrofe, upravlјanje, baze podataka, informacioni sistemi, logistički sistemi. Difficulties in the disaster management process are caused by many factors such as the complexity and fast-spreading harmful effects of hazards, lack of timely and accurate information, difficulty in making key decisions, inability to assess the situation in a short time, the complexity of managing necessary resources, etc. For these reasons, effective disaster response is conditioned by the availability of a variety of data stored in numerous international and national databases that can be used in real-time. In addition, decision-makers are forced to use a variety of information systems and tools that allow them to make quick and accurate calculations in order to make appropriate decisions in a particular situation. Guided by this, the authors, using the method of content analysis and literature review, identify, analyze and comprehensively systematize and describe the significant characteristics of such databases and information systems. The aim of this paper is the scientific description of information and logistics systems and databases that are important for disaster management. The scientific significance of the paper is reflected in the systematization of scientific knowledge about the advantages and disadvantages of using information systems and databases on disasters. In contrast, the social implications of the paper are reflected in informing competent services about the existence and possibilities of using information systems and databases in specific cases of disaster management. Keywords: security, disasters, management, databases, information systems, logistics systems.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Planić, J., Ivković, T., Radojković, S., Stefanović, M., Miljković, N. (2022). Informaciono-logistički sistemi i baze podataka od značaja za integrisano upravlјanje u katastrofama.
Fenomenološke i etiološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih zemljotresom (Phenomenological and etiological dimensions of earthquake disasters)
Prirodne katastrofe su postale deo svakodnevnog života savremenog čoveka, i njihove pojave su sve učestalije i intenzivnije zbog klimatskih promena. Zemljotresi zbog svoje nepredvidivosti predstavljaju jednu od najstrašnijih i najskupljih prirodnih katastrofa. Autori u ovom radu, koristeći pregled literature, predstavljaju osnovne karakteristike zemljotresa kao pri-rodnih katastrofa, kao i značaj pripremljenosti u odgovoru na prirodne katastrofe. Prikazani su osnovni elementi zemljotresa, klasifikacija, skale za merenje jačine zemljotresa i posledice koje izazivaju zemljotresi. S obzirom na to da pripremljenost za katastrofe na nivou pojedinca, zajednice i društva predstavlja efikasno oruđe u smanjenju rizika od katastrofa i ublažavanju njihovih posledica, u radu je posebna pažnja posvećena načinima poboljšanja pripremljenosti. Korišćenjem brojnih naučnih radova, prikazana su iskustva mnogih država čije primere je potrebno pratiti kako bi se na pravilan način osmislile i implementirale strategije ublažavanja posledica prirodnih katastrofa, i programi edukacije građana. Natural disasters have become a part of the everyday life of modern man, and their occurrences are more frequent and intense due to climate change. Due to their unpredictability, earthquakes are one of the most terrible and expensive natural di-sasters. The authors in this paper, using a review of the literature, present the basic characteristics of earthquakes as natural disasters, as well as the importance of preparedness in response to natural disasters. The basic elements of earthquakes, classification, scales for measuring the strength of earthquakes, and the consequences caused by earthquakes are presented. Given that disaster preparedness at the level of the individual, community and society is an effective tool in reducing the risk of disasters and mitigating their consequences, this paper pays special attention to methods that improve preparedness. Using numerous scientific papers, the experiences of many countries are presented, whose examples need to be followed in order to properly design and implement strategies for mitigating the consequences of natural disasters, and education programs for citizens.
Referenca – Planić, J., Cvetković, V. (2022). Fenomenološke i etiološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih zemljotresom. Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravljanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, 269-321. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd, Pravni Fakultet u Novom Sadu i Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa.
Komunikacija o rizicima od katastrofa (Disaster Risk Communications)
Komunikacija rizika od katastrofa predstavlja jedan od temelјa uspešnog upravlјanja u katastrofama koji se ogleda u smanjenju razarajućih uticaja opasnosti od katastrofa na lјudske živote i imovinu, obezbeđenjem pravovremenih kritičnih informacija ugroženim zajednicama. Nedovoljno razvijen sistem indetifikacije, analize i deljenja informacija o rizicima od katastrofa dovodi do lošeg upravljanja u svim fazama katastrofa (ublažavanje, pripremljenost, odgovor i oporavak). U svakoj od spomenutih faza upravljanja postoje jasni zahtevi za specifičnim informacijama koje omogućavaju efikasno donošenje ključnih i blagovremenih odluka. Razmena informacija o rizicima od katastrofa je pod uticajem velikog broja faktora kao što su stepen naučno-tehnološke razvijenosti, demografskog, sociološkog i psihološkog ambijenta, kao i samih karakteristika prirodnih i antropogenih opasnosti. Polazeći od nesumnjivog značaja informacija o rizicima od katastrofa, autori u preglednom radu identifikuju, analiziraju i sistematizuju relevantne aspekte fenomenoloških dimenzija komunikacije o rizicima od katastrofa. Posebna pažnja posvećena je sveobuhvatnom sagledavanju izvora, subjekata i sredstava komunikacije, sa osvrtom na inovativna rešenja i strategije komunikacije u odgovoru na rizike od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa. Disaster risk communication is one of the foundations of successful disaster management, which is reflected in reducing the devastating effects of disaster hazards on human lives and property by providing timely critical information to vulnerable communities. Insufficiently developed system of identification, analysis, and sharing information on disaster risks leads to poor management in all phases of disasters (mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery). In each of the mentioned management phases, precise requirements for specific information enable the efficient making of crucial and timely decisions. The exchange of information on disaster risks is influenced by many factors such as the degree of scientific and technological development, demographic, sociological, and psychological environment, and the characteristics of natural and anthropogenic hazards. Starting from the undoubted importance of information on disaster risks, the authors in a review paper identify, analyze and systematize the relevant aspects of the phenomenological dimensions of disaster risk communication. Special attention is paid to a comprehensive overview of sources, subjects, and means of communication, with a review of innovative solutions and communication strategies in response to the natural and anthropogenic disaster risk.
Referenca – Radovanović, M., & Cvetković, V. (2021). Komunikacija rizika od katastrofa. U Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravljanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, 269-321. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd, Pravni Fakultet u Novom Sadu i Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa.
Fenomenološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima (Phenomenological dimensions of disasters caused by fires in residential buildings)
Katastrofe izazvane požarima u stambenim objektima predstavlјaju ozbilјnu pretnju po život i zdravlјe lјudi i njihove imovine. Unapređenje otpornosti društva, zahteva spoznaju različitih perspektiva i dimenzija požara u stambenim objektima. Primenom metoda analize literature, autori u radu analiziraju i ispituju trenutne mere zaštite od požara koje dovode do nejednakog nivoa zaštite od požara u zgradama i ne uzimaju u obzir savremene izazove, rizike i pretnje od požara. Posebnu pažnju, autori usmeravaju na preispitivanje indikatora nastanka požara i mere generalne prevencije i ublažavanja rizika od nastanka požara. Implikacije preglednog rada imaju veliki značaj za donosioce odluka u Republici Srbiji pred kojima je sve obimniji zahtev za integrisanim unapređenjem bezbednosti lјudi od požara u stambenim objektima.Disasters caused by fires in residential buildings pose a serious threat to the life and health of people and their property. Improving the resilience of society requires knowledge of different perspectives and dimensions of fire in residential buildings. Using the methods of literary analysis, the authors analyze and examine current fire protection measures that lead to unequal levels of fire protection in buildings and do not take into account modern challenges, risks, and fire threats. The authors pay special attention to the review of fire indicators, general prevention measures, and mitigation of fire risks. The implications of the review are of great importance for decision-makers in the Republic of Serbia, who are facing an increasingly extensive demand for integrated improvement of human safety from fires in residential buildings.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Protić, D. (2021). Fenomenološke dimenzije katastrofa izazvanih požarima u stambenim objektima. Akademija tehničkih strukovnih studija Beograd, Primenjene inženjerske nauke Požarevac, Nemanjina 2, Požarevac. 9. Savetovanјe, Upravljanјe rizicima, 24. decembra 2021. godine.
Bezbednosni aspekti zaštite kritične infrastrukture u antropogenim katastrofama: studija slučaja Beograda (Security aspects of critical infrastructure protection in anthropogenic disasters: a case study of Belgrade)
Recognized as the basis for maintaining the functionality of the community in disaster conditions, the protection of critical infrastructure is one of the most important measures to improve the resilience of society. Starting from the fact that society can be affected by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, the subject of this chapter refers to a comprehensive analysis of the security aspects of critical infrastructure protection in anthropogenic and technical-technological disasters. On the other hand, the social goal of the research is to determine the level of public awareness of the importance of protecting critical infrastructure from these disasters. By applying the quantitative research tradition, quantitative research was realized in the area of the city of Belgrade, in which 200 respondents were interviewed by the method of random sampling. The obtained research results unequivocally indicate that preventive action in this area should be mainly focused on the adoption of strategies based on which plans are made to prevent the occurrence of these disasters, as well as operational procedures for critical infrastructure protection. Prepoznata kao osnova održavanja funkcionalnosti društvene zajednice u uslovima katastrofa, zaštita kritične infrastrukture predstavlja jednu od najznačajnih mera unapređivanja otpornosti društva. Polazeći od činjenica da društvo može biti pogođeno različitim prirodnim i antropogenim katastrofama, predmet ovog poglavlja odnosi se na sveobuhvatnu analizu bezbednosnih aspekata zaštite kritične infrastrukture u antropogenim i tehničko-tehnološkim katastrofama. Sa druge strane, društveni cilj istraživanja predstavlja utvrđivanje nivoa upućenosti javnosti u značaj zaštite kritične infrastrukture od spomenutih katastrofa. Primenom kvantitativne istraživačke tradicije, realizovano je istraživanje na području grada Beograda, a u kojem je metodom slučajnog uzorka anketirano 200 ispitanika. Dobijeni rezultati istraživanja nedvosmisleno ukazuju da preventivno delovanje u ovoj oblasti uglavnom treba da bude usmereno na donošenje strategija na osnovu kojih se izrađuju planovi za sprečavanje nastanka spomenutih katastrofa, kao i operativne procedure zaštite kritične infrastrukture.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Kezunović, A. (2021). Bezbednosni aspekti zaštite kritične infrastrukture u antropogenim katastrofama: studija slučaja Beograda. Zbornik radova, u štapi. U Forenzičko računovodstvo, istražne radnje, ljudski faktor i primenjeni alati. Beograd: Fakultet organizacionih nauka, Univerzitet u Beogradu.
Uloga multimedijalnih sadržaja u edukaciji mladih o katastrofama (The role of multimedia content in educating young people about disasters)
Obrazovanje o katastrofama predstavlja jedan od najznačajnijih preduslova unapređenja pripremljenosti društva i građana za blagovremeno i adekvatno reagovanje u takvim situacijama. Iz tih razloga, koriste se različiti tradicionalni i inovativni načini edukacije mladih o katastrofama koji imaju za cilj unapređenje njihove otpornosti na različite prirodne i antropogene katastrofe. Koristeći pregled literature, autori u radu na jedan sistematičan način elaboriraju osnovne karakteristike obrazovanja o katastrofama, ali i karakteristike i načine primene multimedijalnih sadržaja u takvom procesu. Ne zapostavlajući značaj tradicionalnih obrazovanih metoda, autori u radu predstavljaju osnovne modalitete sticanja znanja o katastrofama kroz školske programe sa osvrtom na njihovu bezbednostu u školskim objektima. Rezultati preglednog rada pokazuju da postoji ozbiljan dostupan društveni i naučno-pragmatični ambijent za osmišljavanje i implementaciju multimedijalnih sadržaja u edukaciji mladih o katastrofama. Potrebno je nastaviti sa sprovođenjem istraživanja u ovoj oblasti u cilju unapređenja razumevanja svih prednosti i nedostataka upotrebe multimedija u obrazovanje svrh. Disaster education is one of the essential preconditions for improving the preparedness of society and citizens for timely and adequate response in such situations. For these reasons, various traditional and innovative ways of educating young people about disasters are used, which aim to improve their resilience to various natural and anthropogenic disasters. Using the literature review, the authors elaborate systematically the essential characteristics of disaster education, but also the characteristics and ways of applying multimedia content in such a process. Without neglecting the importance of traditional educational methods, the authors present the primary modalities of acquiring knowledge about disasters through school programs to review their safety in school facilities. The results of the review work show that there is a severe available social and scientific-pragmatic environment for the design and implementation of multimedia content in educating young people about disasters. It is necessary to continue researching this area to improve the understanding of all the advantages and disadvantages of using multimedia for educational purposes.
Referenca – Krnjić, I., & Cvetković, V. (2021). Uloga mutlimedijalnih sadržaja u edukaciji mladih o katastrofama. Pravni i bezbednosni aspekti upravljanja rizicima od prirodnih i antropogenih katastrofa, 206-227. Naučno-stručno društvo za upravljanje rizicima u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd, Pravni Fakultet u Novom Sadu i Međunarodni institut za istraživanje katastrofa.
Risk management of natural disasters: concepts and methods (Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa: koncepti i metodi)
Every day, people are exposed to a variety of risks ranging from small and insignificant to larger ones, such as natural disasters. The concept of risk has been a topic of interest for researchers from different disciplines in the past fifty years. For these reasons, there are many definitions of risk which reflect a scientific discipline itself from which they originated. Managing risks of natural disasters is very complex and conditioned by the existence of well-defined and elaborated management model that will allow efficient and prompt elimination of consequences. Certainly, understanding of the perception of risk is essential for the management prosess. Namely, individuals diferently perceive risks of natural disasters due to their demographic, socio-economic and psychological characteristics. Thereby, there are various methods of risk evaluation, which are conditioned by scientific-disciplinary approach, origin and size of risks. Starting from the multi-dimensionality of risks of natural disasters, authors firstly analyze the theoretical determination of risk through the lens of different disciplines and perspectives with special emphasis on the types of risks. In addition, special attention is given to consideration of the risk management process through generally accepted models, methods and methodology of risk assessment in Serbia. Also, the paper gives an overview of the most important approaches to risks of natural disasters in social sciences. Ljudi su svakodnevno izloženi raznim rizicima, od malih i neznatnih do većih, poput prirodnih katastrofa. Koncept rizika tema je koja je bila interesantna za istraživače iz različitih disciplina u poslednjih pedeset godina. Iz ovih razloga postoji mnogo definicija rizika koje odražavaju samu naučnu disciplinu iz koje potiču. Upravljanje rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa veoma je složeno i uslovljeno je postojanjem dobro definisanog i razrađenog modela upravljanja koji će omogućiti efikasno i brzo uklanjanje posledica. Svakako, razumevanje percepcije rizika je od suštinske važnosti za proces menadžmenta. Naime, pojedinci različito percipiraju rizike od prirodnih katastrofa zbog svojih demografskih, socijalno-ekonomskih i psiholoških karakteristika. Stoga postoje različite metode procene rizika, koje su uslovljene naučno-disciplinskim pristupom, poreklom i veličinom rizika. Polazeći od višedimenzionalnosti rizika od prirodnih katastrofa, autori prvo analiziraju teorijsko određivanje rizika kroz sočiva različitih disciplina i perspektiva sa posebnim naglaskom na vrste rizika. Pored toga, posebna pažnja se posvećuje razmatranju procesa upravljanja rizikom kroz opšteprihvaćene modele, metode i metodologiju procene rizika u Srbiji. Takođe, u radu je dat pregled najvažnijih pristupa rizicima od prirodnih katastrofa u društvenim naukama.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Risk management of natural disasters: Concepts and Methods. International Journal of Recent Research in Arts and Sciences, 8 (1), 540-558.
Zadaci vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u terorističkom napadu izazvanom upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje (The tasks of fire-rescue units in a terrorist attack caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction)
Teroristički napadi, izazvani upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje, predstavlјaju ,,noćnu moru“ ozbilјnih rukovodilaca vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica. Pored policije i službe hitne medicinske pomoći, ove jedinice imaju značajnu ulogu na licu mesta terorističkog napada. Prilikom otklanjanja posledica terorističkog napada, osoblјe vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica biće opterećeno mnogobrojnim zadacima koje će morati da preduzme. Prisustvo oružja za masovno uništavanje i velikog broja povređenih koji su ujedno i kontaminirani, umnogome će komplikovati postupanje ovih jedinica. Osoblјe vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica mora biti sposobno da identifikuje ovo oružje, odredi dimenzije opasnosti, kao i mere predostrožnosti koje će biti zahtevane. U cilјu efikasnijeg obavlјanja poslova, moraju imati razvijene procedure i razrađene taktike postupanja, kao i odgovarajuća zaštitna sredstva. Dakle, moraju posedovati odgovarajuću opremu za rad sa opasnim materijama. Jedan od najvažnijih zadataka, pored zaštite života i zdravlјa, biće dekontaminacija kojoj se mora pristupiti krajnje savesno i obazrivo. U radu se analizira i sagledava uloga vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica na licu mesta terorističkog napada izazvanog upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje. Daje se generalni pregled njihovih aktivnosti od prijema dojave do završetka intervencije sa posebnim osvrtom na samu taktiku pristupanja licu mesta terorističkog napada. Razmatraju se zaštitna sredstva i oprema neophodna za rad u opasnom okruženju, kao i uloga vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u procesu dekontaminacije. Terrorist attacks, caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction, represent a “nightmare” of serious leaders of fire and rescue units. In addition to the police and the emergency medical service, these units have a significant role at the scene of a terrorist attack. During the elimination of the consequences of the terrorist attack, the staff of the fire and rescue units will be burdened with numerous tasks that they will have to undertake. The presence of weapons of mass destruction and a large number of injured people who are also contaminated will greatly complicate the actions of these units. Fire and rescue personnel must be able to identify these weapons, determine the dimensions of the danger, as well as the precautions that will be required. In order to perform their work more efficiently, they must have developed procedures and elaborated tactics of action, as well as appropriate protective equipment. Therefore, they must have appropriate equipment for working with hazardous substances. One of the most important tasks, in addition to the protection of life and health, will be decontamination, which must be approached with the utmost conscientiousness and caution. The paper analyzes and examines the role of fire and rescue units on the spot of a terrorist attack caused by the use of weapons of mass destruction. A general overview of their activities from the receipt of the report to the end of the intervention is given, with special reference to the tactics of approaching the scene of a terrorist attack. Protective means and equipment necessary for work in a dangerous environment are considered, as well as the role of fire and rescue units in the decontamination process.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2012). Zadaci vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u terorističkom napadu izazvanom upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje. Zbornik radova – Suprostavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko – policijska akademija, Beograd, 146-160.
Stanje i novi izazazovi vatrogasno – spasilačkih službi u svetu (The situation and new challenges of fire and rescue services in the world)
Društveno-ekonomski uslovi, posebno sveopšta ekonomska kriza i njen dalji tok najznačajniji su uzrok daljeg razvoja i usavršavanja vatrogasno-spasilačkih službi, posebno u velikim gradovima. Analiza statističkih podataka u radu govori u prilog tome da se VSS razvijaju i opremaju, pre svega prateći razvoj gradova, povećanje broja stanovnika i opšteg napretka nauke i tehnike. Stalno samoispitivanje zajedno sa prepoznavanjem prihvatljivih industrijskih standarda dozvoljavaju VSS da postave ciljeve, izmere stepen njihovog ostvarenja (rezultate) i ukoliko je neophodno, ustanove program dostizanja ciljeva po fazama. Naredne generacije rukovodilaca u VSS moraće sve više da koriste naučne metode predviđanja u funkciji planiranja angažovanja tokom vanrednih situacija i katastrofa (zemljotresa, poplava tehničko-tehnoloških udesa i dr.), jer će se suočavati sa novim izazovima, koji su uzrokovani pojavama o kojima nemaju dovoljno iskustva (na primer, upotrebom oružja za masovno uništavanje i dr.). Ključne reči: vatrogasno-spasilačka služba, statistika, požari, havarije, eksplozije. Socio-economic conditions, especially the general economic crisis and its further course, are the most significant cause of further development and improvement of fire and rescue services, especially in large cities. The analysis of statistical data in the paper speaks in favor of the fact that fire and rescue units are being developed and equipped, primarily following the development of cities, the increase in the number of inhabitants and the general progress of science and technology. Continuous self-examination together with the recognition of acceptable industry standards allow fire and rescue units to set goals, measure the degree of their achievement (results) and, if necessary, establish a program for achieving goals in stages. The next generations of managers in fire and rescue units will increasingly have to use scientific forecasting methods in the function of planning engagements during emergencies and disasters (earthquakes, floods of technical and technological accidents, etc.), because they will face new challenges caused by phenomena. about which they do not have enough experience (for example, using weapons of mass destruction, etc.). Keywords: fire and rescue service, statistics, fires, accidents, explosions.
Referenca – Mlađan, D., Cvetković, V. (2011). Stanje i novi izazazovi vatrogasno – spasilačkih službi u svetu. Zbornik radova, Suprostavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko – policijska akademija, 2011. godina, 95-109.
Suprotstavljanje savremenom terorizmu kao doprinos zaštiti ljudske bezbednosti u Republici Srbiji (Fighting contemporary terrorism as a contribution to the protection of human security in the Republik of Serbia)
The scientific and professional literature, politics and the media are preoccupied with the problem of terrorism and consequences of its manifestations upon security of the state in the past few decades. With the development of the concept of human security focus of interest has been shifted to the consequences that this security threat pose to the man and his values. The aim of this paper is to show that the state is only indirectly affected by the consequences of terrorism through its constituent component – population. For that reason, fighting contemporary terrorism must be in order to protect human security. This paper will discuss how the human component is positioned in the National Security Strategy, since it is a major strategic documents in Serbia. It will then consider whether terrorism construe an increasing threat to traditional state’s values such as state sovereignty and territorial integrity, or to its human component. Finally, we will point out how the fight against terrorism contributes to the protection of human security, ie. that of its segment, which is threatened by the terrorist activity. Keywords: human security, national security, state, terrorism, strategy. Naučna i stručna literatura, politika i mediji okupirani su posled-njih nekoliko decenija problemom terorizma i posledicama njegovih manife-stacija na bezbednost država. Razvojem koncepta ljudske bezbednosti fokus interesovanja pomera se ka posledicama koje ova savremena bezbednosna pretnja ostavlja na čoveka i njegove vrednosti. U radu ćemo ukazati na to da je država tek indirektno ugrožena posledicama terorizma, i to kroz ugro-žavanje njene konstitutivne komponente – stanovništva. Iz tog razloga, i suprotstavljanje savremenom terorizmu mora biti u funkciji zaštite ljudske bezbednosti. U radu će se razmatrati kako je ljudska komponenta pozici-onirana u Strategiji nacionalne bezbednosti, s obzirom na to da se radi o najvažnijem strateškom dokumentu naše zemlje. Zatim će se razmatrati da li terorizam predstavlja veću pretnju tradicionalnim državnim vrednostima kao što su teritorijalni integritet i suverenitet, ili pak njenoj ljudskoj kom-ponenti. Najzad, ukazaćemo na koji način borba protiv terorizma doprinosi zaštiti bezbednosti ljudi, tj. onom njenom segmentu koji se ugrožava kroz terorističku aktivnost. Ključne reči: ljudska bezbednost, nacionalna bezbednost, država, terorizam, strategija Uvod Jedan od najvažnijih zadataka savremene države jeste nalaženje najadekvatni-jih načina suprotstavljanja terorizmu. Bez obzira na to koliko je ekonomski sta-bilna ili kolika je njena vojna moć, nijedna država nije pošteđena pretnje i straha od terorizma koji je danas postao moćno oružje onih koji su nemoćni da drugim, legitimnim sredstvima ostvare političke ciljeve. Najvažnija doktrinarna i strateška dokumenta država postavljaju terorizam na sam vrh agende bezbednosnih pretnji zbog svoje nepredvidivosti i teških posledica koje ostavlja za sobom. Takva pozici-ja ukazuje nam da su države posebno ranjive na terorizam, a situacija je dodatno usložena već decenijama postojećim problemom određenja pojma terorizma, čije bi rešavanje uveliko olakšalo borbu protiv terorizma pravnim sredstvima.
Referenca – Popović, M., Cvetković, V. (2013). Suprostavljanje savremenom terorizmu kao doprinos zaštiti ljudske bezbednosti u Republici Srbiji. Zbornik radova, Suprostavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko – policijska akademija, 169-177.
Jačanje sistema integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u Srbiji: DISARIMES (Strengthening integrated disaster risk management system in Serbia: DISARIMES)
Teritorija Srbije je osetljiva na različite vrste prirodnih opasnosti i rizik nije podjednak na celoj teritoriji; on varira u zavisnosti od vrste opasnosti i očekivanog potencijala štete. Seizmičke opasnosti, klizišta, odroni, poplave, bujične poplave, prekomerna erozija, suše i šumski požari su neke od značajnih prirodnih opasnosti na teritoriji Srbije; ovi prirodni procesi mogu direktno i indirektno da ugroze životnu sredinu, stanovništvo i materijalna dobra. Trenutno stanje zaštite od prirodnih katastrofa na teritoriji Srbije karakteriše nepotpunost i nedostupnost informacija o rizicima od mogućih prirodnih katastrofa, kao i o posledicama koje mogu da izazovu, uz nedovoljno „učešće javnosti“. Ističe se nedovoljni kapacitet lokalnih vlasti, profesionalnih službi i konsultanata za savremeni pristup upravljanju rizikom od katastrofe. Trenutnu situaciju karakteriše i nepostojanje jedinstvene baze podataka o prostornom rasporedu određenih prirodnih katastrofa, tj. određivanje potencijalno kritičnih zona (poplave, klizišta, bujice itd.). Stanje ukupnog sistema zaštite od prirodnih katastrofa na teritoriji Srbije nije zadovoljavajuće, posebno u odnosu na prostorne aspekte upravljanja rizikom. Uprkos stalnom porastu broja, učestalosti i intenziteta prirodnih katastrofa, Republika Srbija nije sprovela sveobuhvatnu naučnu studiju koja bi identifikovala slabosti i mogućnosti za unapređenje sistema upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa. S tim u vezi, glavni cilj projekta je „Jačanje integrisanog sistema upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa u Srbiji – DISARIMES“. Rezultati projekta omogućiće jačanje sistema upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa kroz istraživanje, razvoj i primenu inovativnih rešenja u fazama pripreme (edukacija i obučavanje lokalnog stanovništva itd.), ublažavanja, reagovanja, sanacije i nakon katastrofe. Naučni značaj planiranog istraživanja ogleda se u stvaranju mogućnosti za unapređenje teorijskog i empirijskog znanja u naučnoj oblasti upravljanja rizikom od katastrofa, ali i njihovoj primeni u praksi, imajući u vidu da je to relativno mlada naučna disciplina u Srbiji. Rezultati projektnog istraživanja olakšaće donosiocima odluka u Srbiji razumevanje nedostataka sistema, ali i pružiće inovativne mogućnosti za poboljšanje njihovog funkcionisanja u uslovima sve češćih i ozbiljnijih katastrofa. Osnivanjem naučnog i stručnog društva u oblasti upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa stvoriće se održivi i neophodni uslovi za prenos i unapređenje znanja i iskustava od značaja za podizanje nivoa operativnosti sistema zaštite i spasavanja Republike Srbije u slučaju katastrofe. In the Republic of Serbia, no comprehensive scientific multimethod research has been conducted to identify weaknesses and opportunities for improving the disaster risk management system. Regarding that, in the paper, author presents project description ,,Strengthening Integrated Disaster Risk Management System in Serbia – DISARIMES” which shall enable strengthening the disaster risk management system through research, development and innovative solutions implementation in the preparation, mitigation, response, remediation and post-disaster phases. The scientific importance of the projected research is reflected in the creation of assumptions for the advancement of theoretical and empirical knowledge in the scientific field of disaster risk management, bearing in mind that it is a relatively young scientific discipline in Serbia. The results of the project research will make it easier for decision makers in Serbia to understand the shortcomings of the system, but also provide innovative opportunities to improve their functioning in conditions of increasingly frequent and serious disasters. Establishing a scientific and professional society in the field of disaster risk management will create sustainable and necessary conditions for the transfer and improvement of knowledge and experience of importance for raising the level of operability of the system of protection and rescue of the Republic of Serbia in the event of disasters. A key contribution of the research findings will be to create a sustainable knowledge base that will be supported by the relevant amount of information regarding innovative capabilities and solutions identified as necessary to raise social resilience to a much higher level. In order to achieve the set goals, DISARIMES makes it possible, through a large number of SWOT analyses and other multimethod studies, to clearly identify and systematize the objective deficiencies and barriers encountered by the disaster risk management system in Serbia in all its stages before, during and after disasters, to identify and implement the appropriate solutions based on this. The objectives of the project are: to assess and identify strengths (advantages), weaknesses (disadvantages), opportunities (innovation potential) and threats for the disaster risk management system in Serbia; to develop and update RDI (research, development, innovation) Roadmap – knowledge databases with innovative solutions and other relevant information for improvement of the disaster risk management system; to fully deploy the DISARIMES scientific-professional network involving a broad range of the disaster risk management scientists and civil protection professions and organisations; to prepare the ground for the disaster risk management policy innovations.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2021). Jačanje sistema integrisanog upravljanja rizicima od katastrofa u Srbiji: DISARIMES. Zbornik Radova – Taktika zaštite i Spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd.
Konceptualne osnove i dimenzije otpornosti na katastrofe (Conceptual bases of resilience to disasters)
Predmet rada predstavlja naučna deskripcija konceptualnih osnova otpornosti na katastrofe. Na jedan vešt i sistematičan način, autori opisuju fenomenološke dimenzije otpornosti na katastrofe. Pored toga, daje se pregled najznačajnijih karakteristika različitih dimenzija otpornosti kao što su individualna, društvena, ekonomska i institucionalna otpornost. Rukovodeći se značajem ispitivanja nivoa ostvarene otpornosti na katastrofe, daje se pregled najznačajnijih indikatora merenja otpornosti na katastrofe. Implikacije preglednog rada ogledaju se u dodatnom unapređivanju teorijskih konstrukata različitih segmenata koncepta otpornosti na katastrofe koji se vrlo često primenjuje u studijama katastrofa. The subject of this paper is the scientific description of the conceptual basis of disaster resistance. In a skilful and systematic way, the authors describe the phenomenological dimensions of disaster resistance. In addition, an overview of the most important characteristics of different dimensions of resilience such as individual, social, economic and institutional resilience is given. Guided by the importance of testing the level of achieved disaster resistance, an overview of the most important indicators for measuring disaster resistance is given. The implications of the review paper are reflected in the further improvement of the theoretical constructs of different segments of the disaster resilience concept that is very often applied in disaster studies.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. , Bošković, N. (2021). Konceptualne osnove i dimenzije otpornosti na katastrofe. Zbornik Radova – Taktika zaštite i Spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama, Beograd.
Mogućnosti zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe (Possibilities of misuse of chemical weapons for terrorist purposes)
Hemijsko oružje spada u red najdestruktivnijih oružja za masovno uništavanje, o čemu svedoče posledice, nepredvidlјivost i raznovrsnost delovanja. Istorijski posmatrano, oduvek je tretirano kao nečasno sredstvo za vođenje borbe, i kao takvo zabranjivano. Međutim, uprkos svim zabranama, terorističke grupe svakodnevno pokušavaju da iznađu modalitete nabavke i njegove upotrebe. Osnovne karakteristike i skriveni period delovanja daju veliku prednost hemijskom oružju u odnosu na konvencionalna oružja, prilikom donošenja odluke, od strane terorističkih grupa, o oružju kojim će se izvršiti teroristički akt. Upotreba hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe mogla bi ozbilјno uzdrmati i ugroziti nacionalnu bezbednost jedne države. Poznavanje osnovnih karakteristika ovog oružja je od krucijalne važnosti za preduzimanje mera zaštite života i zdravlјa lјudi, i životne sredine. U radu se definiše pojam hemijskog oružja s posebnim osvrtom na istorijat njegove upotrebe u ratu i miru. Razmatraju se sve postojeće klasifikacije hemijskog oružja, s posebnim fokusom na njegove najpoznatije predstavnike. Na kraju, opisuju se osnovne karakteristike i načini njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe. Chemical weapons is one of the most destructive weapons of mass destruction, as evidenced by the consequences, unpredictability and diversity of ac- tivity. Historically speaking, have always been treated as a dishonest means to conduct the struggle, and as such forbidden. However, despite all the restrictions, terrorist groups every day trying to find modalities of procurement and its use. Main features and hidden action period, a great attention to chemical weapons compared to conventional weapons, in deciding, by teroristic groups on weapons that would make an act of terrorism. The use of chemical weapons for terrorist purposes could seriously undermine and jeopardize the national security of a state. Knowing the basic characteristics of the weapon is crucial to take measures to protect life and health, and environment. Considering the chemical structure, toxicity, characteristics and actual use of chemical weapons, it is impossible to make a universal distribution that covers all their essential properties. This paper defines the concept of chemical weapons with special emphasis on the history of its use in war and peace. It discusses the classification of all existing chemical weapons, with particular focus on its most famous representatives. Finally, we des ribe the main characteristics and methods of its use for terrorist purposes.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Popović, M., Sadiah, A. (2014). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe hemijskog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Zbornik radova, Suprotstavljanje savremenom organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu, Kriminalističko-policijska akademija, Beograd, 341-357.
Integrated natural disasters management (Integrisano upravljanje u prirodnim katastrofama)
Ozbilјnija sistematska proučavanja prirodnih katastrofa i mogućnosti upravlјanja njihovim posledicama stara su oko pola veka, što i nije začuđujuće, imajući u vidu da su društvene nauke relativno mlade. Istraživači prirodnih katastrofa ukazuju da dobro definisan i jasan model upravlјanja predstavlјa krucijalan element suočavanja sa posledicama prirodnih katastrofa. Pri tome, kada se govori o upravlјanju, najpre se misli o dobro utemelјenom formalnom sistemu, odnosno modelu, koji će jasno definisati svaku fazu u takvom procesu. Pregledom odgovarajuće stručne literature, mogu se izdvojiti različiti modeli upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama kao što su: logički, integrisani, uzročni i ostali. Svakako, imajući u vidu sveobuhvatne analize efikasnosti sistema upravlјanja, integrisani pristup upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama predstavlјa vodeći model u državama širom sveta. Radi se o sveobuhvatnom i integrisanom pristupu koji obuhvata sve vrste prirodnih katastrofa (biosferske, litosferske, atmosferske, hidrosferske) i faze (priprema, ublažavanje, odgovor i oporavak) upravlјanja. Dakle, to je iterativan proces donošenja odluka u vezi sa prevencijom, odgovorom i oporavkom od prirodnih katastrofa. Kao takav obezbeđuje šansu zajednicama pogođenim katastrofama da uravnoteže različite potrebe za zaštitu života, imovine i životne sredine, kao i da razmotre način na koji njihove kumulativne akcije mogu doprineti dugoročnijoj održivosti pogođenog područja. Slobodno se može reći da su vodeći principi takvog procesa: sistematski pristup, partnerstvo, neizvesnost, geografski fokus, oslanjanje na nauke i pouzdane podatke. Imajući u vidu značajnost implementacije modela integrisanog upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama u nacionalne sisteme zaštite i spasavanja, predmet rada predstavlјa ispitivanje evolucije, strukture, karakteristika i funkcionisanja integrisanog upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama. Takođe, poseban osvrt se pridaje odnosu između tradicionalnog i savremenog upravlјanja prirodnim katastrofama. More serious systematic studies of natural disaster management capabilities and their consequences are about half a century, which is not surprising, given that social science is relatively young. Researchers of natural disasters indicate that well-defined and clear governance model is a crucial element of dealing with the consequences of natural disasters. In fact, when it speaking about of management, first think of a well-established formal system, or model, that will clearly define each stage in such a process. A review of the relevant scientific literature, we can distinguish different models of natural disasters such as logical, integrated, causal and others. Certainly, given the comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of management, an integrated approach to the management of natural disasters is a leading model in countries around the world. It is a comprehensive and integrated approach that encompasses all types of natural disasters and phases (preparation, mitigation, response and recovery) management. So, it is an iterative process of decision-making in relation to the prevention, response and recovery from natural disasters. As such, it provides a chance for communities affected by disasters to balance the different needs for the protection of life, property and the environment, and to consider ways in which their cumulative actions may contribute to the longer term sustainability of the affected areas. It can be said that the guiding principles of this process: a systematic approach, partnership, uncertainty, geographic focus, relying on science and reliable data. Bearing in mind the importance of implementation models of integrated management of natural disasters in the national system of protection and rescue work is the subject of questioning evolution, structure, characteristics and functioning of the integrated management of natural disasters. In addition, special emphasis is given to the relationship between the traditional and the modern management of natural disasters.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Petrović, D. (2015). Integrisano upravljanje prirodnim katastrofama. Zbornik radova, Razvoj institucionalnih kapaciteta, standarda i procedura za suprotstavljanje organizovanom kriminalu i terorizmu u uslovima međunarodnih integracija, 291-323.
Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa (Analysis of geospatial and temporal distribution of climate disasters)
Climate disasters, which include drought, extreme temperatures and wildfires, every day more and more jeopardize the safety of people and their property. As such, they are beginning to attract more attention of researchers in the field of emergency situations who want to better understand it. Consequently, research has been undertaken in order to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of climate disasters in the world in geographic space period in 1900. till 2013. Given that it is a mass phenomenon, which consists of multiple units, most preferred scientific method for drawing conclusions about climate disasters is a statistical method. In addition, a statistical study was conducted so as to take the first step, the raw data of all natural disasters (25,552) in mind, Excel file from the international database on disasters (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical analysis of data SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution analyzed the total number and consequences of climate disasters by continent. By the same token, within the temporal analysis examined the distribution of the total number and consequences of climatic disasters on an annual, monthly and daily. Statistical analysis of the results clearly indicate that the number of climate disasters on the rise, with their recorded maximum in the period since 2000. till 2013.. Then, based on the results it is concluded that most of the drought occurred in Africa, extreme temperatures in Europe and the forest fires in America. In contrast, the least drought and extreme temperatures occurred in Oceania, and forest fires in Africa. It can not be said that an international database on natural disasters included absolutely everything that happens in the world, given that it was created thanks to the submitted national reports on natural disasters in the period in 1900. till 2013. So the question that arises is whether the most underdeveloped countries submitted their reports. Bearing in mind the increasing trend in the number and severity of natural disasters in the world’s geographic space, the results are a good argument to launch a serious reform of the system of protection and rescue against natural disasters in countries around the world. Results of research impact on raising awareness among citizens on the severity of the consequences of climatic disasters on people, the environment and their property. In our literature there is no scientific papers on this approach the analysis of climatic disasters. These results are original, bearing in mind the scientific method used to analyze the data obtained from the Center for Research of the Epidemiology of Disaster in Brussels. Klimatske katastrofe u koje spadaju suše, ekstremne tempe-rature i šumski požari, svakim danom sve više ugrožavaju bezbed-nost lјudi i njihove imovine. Kao takve, počinju sve više privlačiti pažnju istraživača iz oblasti vanrednih situacija koji ih žele bolјe spoznati. Shodno tome, istraživanje je preduzeto sa cilјem utvrđivanja geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa u svetskom geoprostoru u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučlјiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaklјučaka o klimatskim katastro-fama jeste statistička metoda. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobrađeni podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama (25.552) u vidu ,,Excel” fajla iz međunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okvi-ru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice klimatskih katastrofa po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica klimatskih katastrofa na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou. Statistički rezultati analize nedvosmisleno ukazuju da je broj klimatskih katastrofa u porastu, sa svojim zabeleženim maksimumom u perio-du od 2000. do 2013. godine. Zatim, na osnovu rezultata se zaklјučuje da se najveći broj suša dogodio u Africi, ekstremnih temperatura u Evropi i šumskih požara u Americi. Suprotno tome, najmanje suša i ekstremnih temperatura dogodilo se u Okeaniji, a šumskih požara u Africi. Ne može se reći da je međunarodna baza podataka o prirodnim katastrofama obuhvatila apsolutno sve događaje u svetu, imajući u vidu da je na-stala zahvalјujući dostavlјenim nacionalnim izveštajima o prirodnim katastrofama u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Dakle, pitanje koje se nameće je da li je većina nerazvijenih država dostavila svoje izveštaje. Imajući u vidu trend porasta broja i ozbilјnosti prirodnih katastrofa u svetskom geoprostoru, rezultati istraživanja predstavlјaju dobar argument u pokretanju ozbilјnih reformi sistema zaštite i spasavanja od prirodnih katastrofa u državama širom sveta. Rezultati istraživanja utiču na podizanje nivoa svesti kod građana o ozbilјnosti posledica klimatskih katastrofa po lјude, životnu sredinu i njihovu imovinu. U domaćoj literaturi ne postoje naučni radovi koji na ovaj način pristupaju analizi klimatskih katastrofa. Dobijeni rezultati su originalni imajući u vidu korišćeni naučni metod za analizu podataka dobijenih iz Centra za istraživanje katastrofa u Briselu.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014) Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije klimatskih katastrofa. Zbornik radova, Tranzicija i ekonomski kriminal II, tematski zbornik radova, 163-183.
The impacts of climate changes on the risk of natural disasters (Uticaj klimatskih promena na rizik od prirodnih katastrofa)
Climate changes caused by uncontrolled emissions of greenhouse gases, increasingly, directly or indirectly threaten people and their material goods. In addition, the effects of the climate changes (increasing in the average temperature of the biosphere, the rising of the sea levels, melting glaciers, etc.), undoubtedly contribute to an increased risk of natural disasters. Moreover, climate changes have an impact on the gradual increase of their frequency, intensity and consequences. Around the world, numerous examples of natural disasters testify about the great and inevitable impact of the global warming on the change of the characteristics of floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc. It is therefore important to analyze the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes on all the aspects of natural disasters. The article explicitly and implicitly explains the implications of climate changes on the emergence, intensity and frequency of natural disasters. In addition, it generally perceives the phenomenological structures of climate changes and natural disasters in order to analyze their mutual causality. Klimatske promene izazvane nekontrolisanom emisijom gasova sa efektom staklene bašte sve više direktno ili indirektno ugrožavaju ljude i njihova materijalna dobra. Pored toga, efekti klimatskih promena (porast prosečne temperature biosfere, porast nivoa mora, topljenje glečera itd.), nesumnjivo doprinose povećanom riziku od prirodnih katastrofa. Štaviše, klimatske promene utiču na postepeno povećanje njihove učestalosti, intenziteta i posledica. Širom sveta brojni primeri prirodnih katastrofa svedoče o velikom i neizbežnom uticaju globalnog zagrevanja na promenu karakteristika poplava, suša, uragana itd. Stoga je važno analizirati direktne i indirektne uticaje klimatskih promena na svi aspekti prirodnih katastrofa. Članak eksplicitno i implicitno objašnjava implikacije klimatskih promena na pojavu, intenzitet i učestalost prirodnih katastrofa. Pored toga, generalno uočava fenomenološke strukture klimatskih promena i prirodnih katastrofa kako bi analizirao njihovu međusobnu uzročnost.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2013). The impacts of climate changes on the risk of natural disasters. International yearbook of the Faculty of security (pp. 51-62). Skopje: Faculty of security.
Uloga policije u prirodnim katastrofama (The role of police in natural disasters)
Policija predstavlja jednu od najznačajnijih interventno-spasilačkih službi koja ima krucijalnu ulogu u prirodnim katastrofama. Svakako, karakteristike i obim njene uloge zavise od mnogobrojnih faktora kao što su vrsta, obim, intenzitet, faza i posledice prirodne katastrofe, stepen obučenosti policijskih službenika, postojanje planova i resursa za postupanje policije u takvim situacijama, itd. Ipak, o ulozi policije u prirodnim katastrofama postoji veoma oskudna literatura, pa se na neki način olako može zaklјučiti da je njena uloga i značaj u takvim situacijama donekle i marginalizovana. Upravo stoga, autor u radu analizira zadatke i organizaciju policije u različitim fazama nastajanja prirodne katastrofe. Na sveobuhvatan način, izlaže se teorijski model odgovora na prirodne katastrofe od strane policije, koji opisuje prioritete stanovnika pogođene zajednice sa ciljem identifikacije najoptimalnije strategije policijskog reagovanja u svakoj od tih faza katastrofe. Kao rezultat istraživanja, u radu se iznose jasne smernice i preporuke za unapređenje rada policije u prirodnim katastrofama. The police are one of the most important intervention and rescue services, which has a crucial role in natural disasters. Certainly, the characteristics and scope of its role depend on many factors such as the type, scope, intensity, phase and consequences of the natural disaster, the level of training of police officers, the existence of plans and resources for police action in such situations, etc. However, there is very little literature on the role of the police in natural disasters, so in a way it can be easily concluded that its role and significance in such situations is somewhat marginalized. Precisely for this reason, the author analyzes the tasks and organization of the police in different phases of a natural disaster. In a comprehensive way, a theoretical model of police response to natural disasters is presented, which describes the priorities of the residents of the affected community with the aim of identifying the most optimal police response strategy in each of these disaster phases. As a result of the research, the paper presents clear guidelines and recommendations for improving the work of the police in natural disasters.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014). Uloga policije u prirodnim katastrofama. Zbornik radova, Elementarne nepogode i vanredne situacije. Institut za uporedno pravo i Kriminalističko-policijska akademija, Beograd, 215-243.
Activities of the Sector for Emergency Situations on the harmonization of the policy of the Republic of Serbia with the EU security policy in the field of civil protection (Aktivnosti Sektora za vanredne situacije na usklađivanju politike Republike Srbije sa bezbednosnom politikom EU u oblasti civilne zaštite)
This paper explains the way of cooperation and association in the field of emergency management in the European Union (EU). Natural and technical disasters and emergencies are not limited by national boundaries or beyond the capabilities of the adequate response of affected countries, and the EU is forced to build and develop capacities in those areas of common security. The Republic of Serbia as a potential candidate country for EU membership, build up its own system of protection and rescue in emergency situations, which in most elements is compatible with the EU system. Sector for Emergency Management of the Ministry of Interior is the most important carrier of construction, harmonization, and coordination of the system in the Republic of Serbia (RS), as well as a system of civil protection and humanitarian assistance of the EU. Ovaj rad objašnjava način saradnje i udruživanja u oblasti upravljanja vanrednim situacijama u Evropskoj uniji (EU). Prirodne i tehničke katastrofe i vanredne situacije nisu ograničene nacionalnim granicama niti prevazilaze mogućnosti adekvatnog odgovora pogođenih zemalja, a EU je prisiljena da gradi i razvija kapacitete u onim oblastima zajedničke bezbednosti. Republika Srbija kao potencijalni kandidat za članstvo u EU izgrađuje svoj sistem zaštite i spasavanja u vanrednim situacijama, koji je u većini elemenata kompatibilan sa sistemom EU. Sektor za vanredne situacije Ministarstva unutrašnjih poslova, najvažniji je nosilac izgradnje, usklađivanja i koordinacije sistema u Republici Srbiji (RS), kao i sistema civilne zaštite i humanitarne pomoći EU.
Referenca – Mlađan, D., Marić, P., Baras, I., Cvetković V. (2011). Aktivnosti Sektora za vanredne situacije na usklađivanju politike Republike Srbije sa bezbednosnom politikom EU u oblasti civilne zaštite. Zbornik radova, Usklađivanje spoljne politike Republike Srbije sa zajedničkom spoljnom i bezbednosnom politikom Evropske unije. Instutut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, 479 – 492.
Climate Change as a Modern Security Threat (Klimatske promene kao savremena bezbednosna pretnja)
Across the Earth, in everyday professional and scientific debates, climate changes are referred as a multidimensional global threat that represent a multiplier of various tensions over access to basic life resources which wane. Thus, in this paper we analyze the phenomenology of climate change that is brought into direct/indirect relationship with endangering the safety of human, material and cultural resources and the environment at the national and global levels. The paper also analyzes the impacts of climate change on increasing disaster risk, that every day increasingly destructive endangers the safety of people both by work and by nature of created value. At the end of the paper, the effects of climate change on water resources are presented. In conclusion, the authors point out that climate change is a reality that presents a significant security risk and a challenge, which have caused: the reduction of energy access, food availability, increased frequency and intensity of catastrophic natural disasters, population displacement, increasing public health problems, and lack of health safe drinking water. In addition, they actualize the idea that climate change poses a serious threat to national security and defense of the country, which was matter dealt mostly by activists and environmental experts in the field. However, lately climate change is beginning to be a subject of interest of politicians and security officials around the world. Širom Zemlje, u svakodnevnim stručnim i naučnim raspravama, klimatske promene se nazivaju višedimenzionalnom globalnom pretnjom koja predstavlja multiplikator različitih napetosti zbog pristupa osnovnim životnim resursima koji nestaju. Dakle, u ovom radu analiziramo fenomenologiju klimatskih promena koja se dovodi u direktni / indirektni odnos sa ugrožavanjem sigurnosti ljudskih, materijalnih i kulturnih resursa i životne sredine na nacionalnom i globalnom nivou. U radu se takođe analiziraju uticaji klimatskih promena na rastući rizik od katastrofe, koji svakim danom sve destruktivnije ugrožava sigurnost ljudi kako radom, tako i prirodom stvorene vrednosti. Na kraju rada prikazani su efekti klimatskih promena na vodene resurse. U zaključku autori ističu da su klimatske promene stvarnost koja predstavlja značajan bezbednosni rizik i izazov koji su prouzrokovali: smanjenje pristupa energiji, dostupnosti hrane, povećanu učestalost i intenzitet katastrofalnih prirodnih katastrofa, raseljavanje stanovništva, povećanje javne zdravstveni problemi i nedostatak zdrave vode za piće. Pored toga, oni aktuelizuju ideju da klimatske promene predstavljaju ozbiljnu pretnju nacionalnoj bezbednosti i odbrani zemlje, čime su se uglavnom bavili aktivisti i stručnjaci za zaštitu životne sredine na terenu. Međutim, u poslednje vreme klimatske promene počinju da budu predmet interesa političara i bezbednosnih zvaničnika širom sveta.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Milojković, B., Mlađan, D. (2013). Climate Change as a Modern Security Threat. International Conference Climate change Impacts on Water Resources, 17-18 October 2013, Belgrade, Jaroslav Černi Institute for the Development of Water Resources, 168-174.
Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija kao prirodnih katastrofa (Geospatial and temporal distribution of tsunami as natural disasters)
Predmet istraživanja predstavlja utvrёivanja geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija u svetskom geoprostoru u periodu od 1900. do 2013. godine. Imajući u vidu da se radi o masovnoj pojavi koja se sastoji iz mnoštva jedinica, najpreporučljiviji naučni metod za donošenje zaključaka o cunamiju jeste statistička metoda. Pri tome, samo statističko istraživanje je sprovedeno na taj način što su u prvom koraku preuzeti neobraёeni podaci o svim prirodnim katastrofama (25.552) u vidu ,,Excel‖ fajla iz meёunarodne baze podataka o katastrofama (CRED) u Briselu, a zatim su analizirani u programu za statističku obradu podataka SPSS. U okviru geoprostorne distribucije analiziran je ukupan broj i posledice cunamija po kontinentima. Po istom principu, u okviru vremenske analize razmatrana je distribucija ukupnog broja i posledica cunamija na godišnjem, mesečnom i dnevnom nivou. The subject of the research is to determine the geospatial and temporal distribution of tsunamis in the world geospace in the period from 1900 to 2013. Given that it is a mass phenomenon consisting of a multitude of units, the most recommended scientific method for drawing conclusions about a tsunami is the statistical method. In doing so, only the statistical survey was conducted in such a way that in the first step, raw data on all natural disasters (25,552) were taken in the form of an “Excel” file from the International Disaster Database (CRED) in Brussels, and then analyzed in program for statistical data processing SPSS. Within the geospatial distribution, the total number and consequences of tsunamis by continents were analyzed. According to the same principle, within the time analysis, the distribution of the total number and consequences of tsunamis on an annual, monthly and daily level was considered.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Janković, B., & Banović, B. (2014). Analiza geoprostorne i vremenske distribucije cunamija kao prirodnih katastrofa. Četvrta međunarodna naučna konferencija ,,Bezbednosni inženjering, požar, životna sredina, radna okolina, integrisani rizici“ i Četrnaesta međunarodna konferencija zaštita od požara i eksplozija, 02-03. oktobar 2014. Novi Sad: Visoka tehnička škola strukovnih studija u Novom Sadu, Tehnički univerzitet u Zvolenu i Fakultet tehničkih nauka, Departman za građevinarstvo i geodeziju, str. 352-361.
Upravljanje u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama izazvanim upotrebom opasnih materija (Management in terrorist emergencies caused by the use of hazardous substances)
Opasne materije su neminovni pratilac savremenog vremena i njihova raznovrsnost posebno dolazi do izražaja kada se analiziraju mogućnosti njihove terorističke upotrebe čime bi se izazvala ozbiljna vanredna situacija. Naravno, radioaktivne, eksplozivne, zapaljive, toksične materije i biološki agensi, po svojoj samoj prirodi predstavljaju opasne materije koje se mogu na jednostavan način upotrebiti u takve svrhe. Efikasno otklanjanje nastalih posledica u takvim vanrednim situacijama u velikoj meri zavisi od međusobne saradnje i koordinacije interventno-spasilačkih službi kao i podrške šire zajednice. Generalno posmatrano, ne postoji interventno-spasilačka služba koja može samostalno sa isključivo sopstvenim kapacitetima i resursima pružiti adekvatan odgovor. Pri tome, potrebno je uspostaviti efikasnu organizaciju rada, tj. sistem upravljanja u vanrednim situacijama koji će adekvatno odgovoriti svim potrebama na licu mesta. Pri tome, u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama postojaće potreba za uspostavljanjem strateškog, taktičkog i operativnog nivoa organizacije rada. U radu se neće analizirati strateški, već će se akcenat staviti na taktički i operativni nivo organizacije rada interventno-spasilačkih službi. Upravo stoga, autor u radu opisuje organizaciju i međusobnu koordinaciju rada interventno spasilačkih službi, poštujući proceduru od ,,8 koraka“: 1. upravljanje i kontrolisanje područja; 2. identifikacija problema; 3. evaluacija opasnosti i rizika; 4. selekcija lične zaštitne odeće i opreme; 5. kontrola protoka informacija i koordiniranje resursa; 6. sprovođenje prioritetnih akcija; 7. dekontaminiranje i čišćenje terena; i 8. okončanje vanredne situacije. Najzad, u radu se ukazuje i na potencijalne opasnosti po život i zdravlje pripadnika službi u postupku otklanjanja nastalih posledica, sa posebnim osvrtom na mere zaštite. Dangerous substances are an inevitable companion of modern times and their diversity is especially evident when analyzing the possibilities of their terrorist use, which would cause a serious emergency situation. Of course, radioactive, explosive, flammable, toxic substances and biological agents, by their very nature, are dangerous substances that can be easily used for such purposes. Effective elimination of the consequences in such emergencies largely depends on cooperation and coordination of intervention and rescue services, as well as the support of the wider community. Generally speaking, no intervention and rescue service can independently and exclusively with its capacities and resources provide an adequate response. At the same time, it is necessary to establish an efficient organization of work, ie. an emergency management system that will adequately respond to all needs on the spot. At the same time, in terrorist emergencies, there will be a need to establish a strategic, tactical, and operational level of work organization. The paper will not analyze strategically but will emphasize the tactical and operational level of organization of the work of intervention and rescue services. Precisely for this reason, the author describes the organization and mutual coordination of the work of emergency rescue services, respecting the procedure of “8 steps”: 1. management and control of the area; 2. problem identification; 3. hazard and risk evaluation; 4. selection of personal protective clothing and equipment; 5. control of information flow and coordination of resources; 6. implementation of priority actions; 7. decontamination and cleaning of the terrain; and 8. end of the emergency. Finally, the paper points out the potential dangers to the life and health of members of the service in the process of eliminating the consequences, with special reference to protection measures.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. (2014). Upravljanje u terorističkim vanrednim situacijama izazvanim upotrebom opasnih materija. Naučna konferencija: sigurnost urbanih sredina. Fakultet za kriminalistiku, kriminologiju i sigurnosne studije, Sarajevo, 63-72.
Mogućnosti zloupotrebe nuklearnog oružja u terorističke svrhe i krivičnopravna zaštita (Possible abuse of nuclear weapons in terrorist activity and criminal protection)
Svet se našao pod uticajem energije razorne moći, zastarele i prljave tehnologije, trke u naoružanju, ratnih dejstava i terorističkih aktivnosti. Pri tome, u svetu postoji velike količina nuklearnog oružja različite snage i moći, koje se i dalje gomila i usavršava uz stalno proširenje zemalja koje to oružje poseduju. Terorističke grupe mogu napasti objekte i institucije za proizvodnju nuklearne energije, kao i samo nuklearno oružje pri proizvodnji, transportu i skladištenju. Imajući u vidu posledice i destruktivnost, nuklearno oružje je potencijalno najsmrtonosnije oružje koje terorističke grupe mogu iskoristiti u sprovođenju nasilja, radi ostvarivanja ciljeva. Jedno od najznačajnijih sredstava u zaštiti od nuklearnog oružja je pravno regulisanje, kako na globalnom, tako i na nacionalnom nivou. U ovom radu autori razmatraju dve grupe pitanja. U prvom delu je obrađen pojam i karakteristike nuklearnog oružja, kao i pretpostavke njegove zloupotrebe u terorističke svrhe. Drugi deo rada posvećen je pravnom regulisanju i krivičnopravnoj zaštiti od zloupotrebe nuklearnog oružja u terorističke svrhe.The world has found itself under the influence of the energy of destructive power, outdated and dirty technology, arms races, warfare and terrorist activities. At the same time, there is a large amount of nuclear weapons of various strengths and powers in the world, which are still accumulating and improving with the constant expansion of the countries that possess those weapons. Terrorist groups can attack facilities and institutions for the production of nuclear energy, as well as nuclear weapons only during production, transport and storage. Given the consequences and destructiveness, nuclear weapons are potentially the deadliest weapons that terrorist groups can use to carry out violence, in order to achieve their goals. One of the most important means of protection against nuclear weapons is legal regulation, both globally and nationally. In this paper, the authors consider two groups of questions. The first part deals with the concept and characteristics of nuclear weapons, as well as the assumptions of their misuse for terrorist purposes. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the legal regulation and criminal protection against the misuse of nuclear weapons for terrorist purposes.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Mlađović, I. (2015). Mogućnosti zloupotrebe nuklearnog oružja u terorističke svrhe i krivično pravna zaštita. Osmi međunarodni naučni skup „Dani bezbjednosti“ na temu: Subjekti sistema bezbjednosti u ostvarivanju bezbjednosne funkcije države, Fakultet za bezbjednost i zaštitu, Banja Luka 12. jun 2015, 397-407.
Vanredne situacije izazvane upotrebom radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe (Emergency situations caused by use of the radiological weapons for terrorist purposes)
Savremeni terorizam koga karakteriše upotreba oružja za masovno uništavanje predstavlja jedan od najozbiljnijih scenarija ugrožavanja bezbednosti građana. Teroristima na raspolaganju stoji različit izbor oružja za masovno uništavanje koje se razlikuje po svojim karakteristikama i načinima njegove primene. Zbog povećane pretnje upotrebe radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe, krajem XX veka je uvršćeno u oružje za masovno uništavanje iako je njegova upotreba razmatrana još davne 1941. godine. Polazeći od mogućnosti zloupotrebe radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe, autori u radu elaboriraju pojam i vrste radiološkog oružja, sa posebnim osvrtom na njegovu primenu u prošlosti. Pored toga, analiziraju se i opisuju karakteristike i načini njegove upotrebe u terorističke svrhe. Modern terrorism, characterized by the use of weapons of mass destruction, is one of the most serious scenarios for endangering the security of citizens. Terrorists have at their disposal a different choice of weapons of mass destruction, which differ in their characteristics and ways of their application. Due to the increased threat of the use of radiological weapons for terrorist purposes, at the end of the 20th century it was included in weapons of mass destruction, although its use was considered as far back as 1941. Starting from the possibility of misuse of radiological weapons for terrorist purposes, the authors elaborate the concept and types of radiological weapons, with special reference to its use in the past. In addition, the characteristics and ways of its use for terrorist purposes are analyzed and described.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., & Filipović, M. (2017). Vanredne situacije izazvane upotrebom radiološkog oružja u terorističke svrhe. Zbornik radova, Prva konferencija sa međunarodnim učešćem, ekološka bezbednost i zaštita na radu, 32-38.
The impact of climate change on protection and conservation of biodiversity as a precondition of environmental security in Serbia (Uticaj klimatskih promena na zaštitu i očuvanje biodiverziteta kao preduslova ekološke bezbednosti u Srbiji)
The influence of climate change on biodiversity as a precondition of environmental security is the subject of an increasing number of scientific and expert analyzes around the world. Due to the lack of information on the related effects of climate change and immediate empirical evidences, there may be neglect of the application of adequate measures to mitigate the potentially adverse impact of climate on the maintenance, growth, reproduction and distribution of certain species which can affect the creation of unwanted implication regarding to ecological security. Bearing in mind the significant number of endemic plant and animal species in the territory of the Republic of Serbia, its unique responsibility with regard to the preservation of biodiversity can not be denied. The paper performed a secondary analysis of the key documents and reports that Serbia, as a member state of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, and the signatory country to the Paris Agreement, is obliged to continuously submit to the UNFCCC Secretariat. According to the First National Communication of the Republic of Serbia, the effects of climate change on biodiversity and natural ecosystems are observed that indicate phenological changes, changes in morphology, physiology and species behavior, habitat loss, as well as the emergence of new habitats, changes in the number and distribution of species etc. Secondary analysis of the report on measures of mitigation and adaptation to climate change was carried out with a special focus on the situation, vulnerability and perspectives of biodiversity on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. Uticaj klimatskih promena na biološku raznovrsnost, kao osnovnog preduslova ekološke bezbednosti, predmet je sve većeg broja naučnih i stručnih analiza širom sveta. Usled nedostatka informacija o pratećim uticajima promena klime i neposrednih empirijskih dokaza, može doći do zanemarivanja primene adekvatnih mera za ublažavanje potencijalno štetnog uticaja klime na održavanje, rast, razmnožavanje i rasprostranjenost pojedinih vrsta što može uticati na stvaranje neželjenih implikacija po ekološku bezbednost. Imajući u vidu značajan broj endemičnih biljnih i životinjskih vrsta na području Republike Srbije, ne može se osporiti njena osobena odgovornost u pogledu očuvanja biodiverziteta. U radu je izvršena sekundarna analiza ključnih dokumenta i izveštaja koje Srbija, kao država članica Okvirne konvencije Ujedinjenih Nacija o promeni klime (UNFCCC) i Kjoto protokola, i zemlja potpisnica Sporazuma iz Pariza (od 2017. godine), ima obavezu da kontinualno podnosi Sekretarijatu UNFCCC-a. Prema Prvoj nacionalnoj komunikaciji Republike Srbije uočeni su efekti klimatskih promena na biodiverzitet i prirodne ekosisteme koji ukazuju da može doći do: fenoloških, morfoloških i fizioloških promena, promena u ponašanju vrsta, gubitka staništa, pojave novih staništa, kao i promena u broju, distribuciji vrsta što može pogoršati stanje ekološke bezbednosti. Sekundarna analiza izveštaja o merama mitigacije i adaptacije na klimatske promene izvršena je sa posebnim osvrtom na stanje, ugroženost i perspektive biodiverziteta na području Republike Srbije.
Referenca – Filipović, M., Cvetković, V., & Jakovljević, V. (2017). Uticaj klimatskih promena na zaštitu i očuvanje biodiverziteta kao preduslova ekološke bezbednosti u Srbiji. Zbornik radova, Prva konferencija sa međunarodnim učešćem, ekološka bezbednost i zaštita na radu, 50-57.
Gender disparities in flood risk perception and preparedness: a Serbian case study (Rodne razlike u percepciji rizika i pripremljenosti za poplave: studija slučaja Srbije)
The catastrophic flood occurred in Serbia in 2014 was one of the most critical events registered in the Balkan area in the last decades. The procedures for evacuation have been tough to manage indicating a low level of perception and preparedness towards flood events. Also, the failure in the response phase showed a gender unbalance, where information did not reach men and women equally. Urgently, the Council for Gender Equality Government of the Republic of Serbia held an extraordinary meeting dedicated to the flood planning and emergency support in a gendered perspective. It concluded with the necessity of developing more gender-sensitive statistics, indicators of vulnerability, reconstruction and recovery to floods. For these reasons, we conducted an extensive interview to underlined the differences in risk perception and preparedness actions of both women and men regarding flood events in Serbia. 2500 face-to-face interviews have been conducted in 19 out of 150 municipalities being a good representative sample of the country with the use of a multi-stage random sample. The research findings indicated that is a gender disparity among men and women both in the perception than in the preparedness actions toward floods. Men seemed to be more confident in their abilities to cope with flooding, assessing a greater individual and household preparedness. This could be ascribable to their active involvement in the army where young men were educated to manage emergency situations. They displayed more trust in themselves rather than external agencies or organisation, and this could result in a general mistrust on institutions and planned evacuations. On the other hand, women displayed larger sensitivity and knowledge to these events, however, this did not translate into a capacity to react. It has been assumed that their work as child-carers and housekeepers made them unable to create a strong social network within the community being less informed and involved in the decision-making process. For this purpose, planners might consider how this can affect the way authorities can reach women with hazard information and emergency warnings. However, they should not be seen as sole victims, but valuable resources able to take leading roles in building disaster resilience. In this work they displayed higher organisation of basic supplies and emergency amenities, saving important documents and dealing with the financial matters of the household. This should be taken as an advantage in preparing the family for a possible hazard situation, enlarging their selfconfidence and burdens of responsibilities. Demographic and economic attributes, behaviours and beliefs reflect gender power relations in the flood hazard context in Serbia. Failing to recognise it, may lead to inefficient community-based risk management plans. Thus, there is a systematic need to investigate and acknowledge the role of gender dynamics without limiting gender as an isolated variable. This work will contribute raising further investigations on this topic especially in a country like Serbia where this topic was weakly investigated. Katastrofalna poplava koja se dogodila u Srbiji 2014. godine bila je jedan od najkritičnijih događaja registrovanih na Balkanu u poslednjim decenijama. Teško je upravljati postupcima evakuacije, što ukazuje na nizak nivo percepcije i spremnosti za poplavne događaje. Takođe, neuspeh u fazi odgovora pokazao je rodnu neravnotežu, gde informacije nisu jednako dopirale do muškaraca i žena. Hitno je Savet za ravnopravnost polova Republike Srbije održao vanredni sastanak posvećen planiranju poplava i vanrednoj podršci u rodno perspektivnom pogledu. Zaključeno je da je neophodno razviti rodno osetljiviju statistiku, pokazatelje ranjivosti, obnove i oporavka od poplava. Iz ovih razloga, obavili smo opširan intervju kako bismo naglasili razlike u percepciji rizika i pripremljenosti žena i muškaraca u vezi sa poplavama u Srbiji. Obavljeno je 2500 intervjua licem u lice u 19 od 150 opština koje predstavljaju dobar reprezentativni uzorak zemlje uz upotrebu višestepenog slučajnog uzorka. Nalazi istraživanja ukazali su da postoji rodna razlika među muškarcima i ženama kako u percepciji, tako i u akcijama pripremljenosti za poplave. Činilo se da su muškarci sigurniji u svoje sposobnosti da se izbore sa poplavama, procenjujući veću individualnu spremnost i spremnost domaćinstva. To se može pripisati njihovom aktivnom učešću u vojsci gde su mladići obrazovani za upravljanje vanrednim situacijama. Pokazali su više poverenja u sebe nego u spoljne agencije ili organizacije, a to bi moglo rezultirati opštim nepoverenjem u institucije i planiranu evakuaciju. S druge strane, žene su pokazale veću osetljivost i znanje na ove događaje, međutim, to nije preraslo u sposobnost reagovanja. Pretpostavlja se da im je njihov rad kao negovatelja dece i domaćica onemogućio stvaranje jake socijalne mreže unutar zajednice koja je manje informisana i uključena u proces donošenja odluka. U tu svrhu planeri mogu razmotriti kako ovo može uticati na način na koji vlasti mogu doći do žena s informacijama o opasnostima i upozorenjima za hitne slučajeve. Međutim, na njih ne treba gledati kao na jedine žrtve, već na dragocene resurse koji mogu da preuzmu vodeću ulogu u izgradnji otpornosti na katastrofe. U ovom poslu pokazali su veću organizaciju osnovnih potrepština i hitnih usluga, čuvajući važne dokumente i baveći se finansijskim pitanjima domaćinstva. To bi trebalo uzeti kao prednost u pripremi porodice za moguću opasnu situaciju, povećanju njihovog samopouzdanja i tereta odgovornosti. Demografski i ekonomski atributi, ponašanja i uverenja odražavaju rodne odnose moći u kontekstu opasnosti od poplave u Srbiji. Ako ga ne prepoznaju, može dovesti do neefikasnih planova upravljanja rizikom u zajednici. Dakle, postoji sistematska potreba za istraživanjem i priznavanjem uloge rodne dinamike bez ograničavanja pola kao izolovane promenljive. Ovaj rad će doprineti pokretanju daljih istraga na ovu temu, posebno u zemlji kao što je Srbija, gde je ova tema slabo istražena.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Roder, G., Tarolli, P., Öcal, A., Ronan, K., & Dragićević, S. (2017). Gender disparities in flood risk perception and preparedness: a Serbian case study. The European Geosciences Union GmbH – EGU General Assembly 2017, At Vienna, Austria, Volume: Vol. 19, EGU2017-6720: Session HS1.9/NH1.18 Hydrological risk under a gender and age perspective, Wiena.
Тhe role of emergency medical service in emergencies caused by terrorism (Uloga službe hitne medicinske pomoći u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim terorističkim aktima)
Imajući u vidu zdravstvene posledice upotrebe ovog oružja od strane terorističkih grupa, posebno značajna interventno-spasilačka služba u otklanjanju zdravstvenih posledica nastalih takvim napadom, jeste služba hitne medicinske pomoći, kao i celokupno medicinsko osoblјe. Pored policije i vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica, navedena služba ima klјučnu ulogu u otklanjanju posledica terorističkih vanrednih situacija. Trenutna pojava velikog broja nastradalih lica, otežani uslovi za pronalaženje i pružanje medicinske pomoći, potreba za ograničavanjem boravka lјudi u području koje je kontaminirano itd., umnogome će iskomplikovati rad službe hitne medicinske pomoći koja će se suočiti sa velikim brojem zadataka. Upravo stoga, u radu se analiziraju zadaci i uloga službe hitne medicinske pomoći u terorističkoj vanrednoj situaciji, sa posebnim osvrtom na trijažu i transport povređenih, kao i pripremu bolnice za prijem povređenih sa lica mesta vanredne situacije. Pored toga, u radu se analizira uloga zdravstvenih službi u otklanjanju zdravstvenih posledica terorističkih vanrednih situacija u Republici Srbiji. Having in mind the health consequences of the use of these weapons by terrorist groups, a particularly important intervention and rescue service in eliminating the health consequences caused by such an attack is the emergency medical service, as well as the entire medical staff. In addition to the police and fire and rescue units, the said service has a key role in eliminating the consequences of terrorist emergencies. The current appearance of a large number of victims, difficult conditions for finding and providing medical care, the need to limit the stay of people in the contaminated area, etc., will greatly complicate the work of the emergency medical service, which will face a large number of tasks. Therefore, the paper analyzes the tasks and role of the emergency medical service in a terrorist emergency, with special emphasis on triage and transport of the injured, as well as the preparation of the hospital for the reception of the injured from the scene of the emergency. In addition, the paper analyzes the role of health services in eliminating the health consequences of terrorist emergencies in the Republic of Serbia.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Aksentijević, V., & Ivović, M. (2015). Uloga službe hitne medicinske pomoći u vanrednim situacijama izazvanim terorističkim aktima. Zbornik radova, Suprotstavljanje savremenim oblicima kriminaliteta – analiza stanja, evropski standardi i mere za unapređenje (26-29. maj 2015), Kriminalističko-policijska akademija i Fondacija „Hans Zajdel” u saradnji sa Ministarstvom unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije, 355-367.
Natural disaster risk insurance and reduction (Osiguranje i smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa)
The number of natural disasters is increasing and their consequences are increasingly devastating. In some countries there is a mandatory insurance against natural disasters caused by flooding, while in Serbia this is still in its beginning. Therefore, this paper presents the results of quantitative research of correlation between demographic and socio-economic characteristics of citizens and property insurance against the consequences of natural disasters caused by floods in the Republic of Serbia. The survey was conducted in 2015 and on that occasion it was randomly selected 19 local communities in which 2,500 persons were interviewed. At the same time, the survey strategy was applied in households using a multi-stage random sample. Results of descriptive statistical analysis indicate that only 8% of respondents have insured their property against the consequences of natural disasters caused by floods while 86.6% did not do so. Chi-square test (x2) of independence showed a statistically significant correlation between insurance and demographic characteristics of respondents – gender, age, level of education, success in high school and some socio-economic characteristics – employment, marital status and home distance from the river. On the other hand, there was no statistically significant relationship between insurance and amount of household income. The originality of the research is reflected in the improvement of theoretical knowledge in the field of reducing the risk of natural disasters. The research results have unambiguous scientific and social importance which is reflected in the abundance of new data that can be used for the purpose of comparison with the results of other studies in the world and designing the strategy of encouraging citizens to insure their property. The presented results represent a segment of a wider research into citizen preparedness to respond to a natural disaster caused by flood in the Republic of Serbia. Key words: security, natural disasters, risk reduction, insurance, citizens, demographic, socio-economic. Apstrakt: Broj prirodnih katastrofa je u porastu i njihove posledice su sve razornije. U pojedinim zemlјama postoji obavezno osiguranje od posledica prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom, dok je u Srbiji to još u začetku. Upravo stoga, u radu su izneti rezultati kvantitativnog istraživanja povezanosti demografskih i socio-ekonomskih karakteristika građana i osiguranja imovine od posledica prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom u Republici Srbiji. Istraživanje je sprovedeno u toku 2015. godine i tom prilikom metodom slučajnog uzorka odabrano je 19 lokalnih zajednica u kojima je anketirano 2500 građana. Pri tome, primenjena je strategija ispitivanja u domaćinstvima uz primenu višeetapnog slučajnog uzorka. Rezultati deskriptivne statističke analize ukazuju da je samo 8% ispitanika osiguralo svoju imovinu od posledica prirodnih katastrofa izazvanih poplavom dok 86,6% to nije učinilo. Hi kvadrat testom (x2) nezavisnosti utvrđena je statistički značajna povezanost osiguranja sa demografskim karakteristikama ispitanika – pol, godine starosti, nivo obrazovanja, uspeh u srednjoj školi i određenim socio-ekonomskim karakteristikama – zaposlenost, bračni status i udalјenost domaćinstva od reke. Sa druge strane, nije utvrđena statistički značajna povezanost osiguranja sa visinom prihoda domaćinstva. Orginalnost istraživanja ogleda se u unapređenju teorijskog fonda znanja iz oblasti smanjenja rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. Rezultati istraživanja imaju nedvosmislen naučni i društveni značaj koji se ogleda u pružanju obilјa novostvorenih podataka koji se mogu iskoristiti u cilјu komparacije sa rezultatima drugih istraživanja u svetu i koncipiranju strategije podsticanja građana da osiguraju svoju imovinu. Izneti rezultati predstavlјaju jedan segment obimnijeg istraživanja spremnosti građana za reagovanje u prirodnoj katastrofi izazvanoj poplavom u Republici Srbiji.
Referenca – Cvetković, V., Jakovljević, V., & Stanić, M. (2016). Osiguranje i smanjenje rizika od prirodnih katastrofa. VII naučno-stručni skup sa međunarodnim učešćem „Evropske integracije: pravda, sloboda i bezbednost“ Kriminalističko-policijska akademija i Fondacija „Hans Zajdel” u saradnji sa Ministarstvom unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije, 24-26. maj 2016. godine Tara, hotel „Omorika“ , 419-441.
Činioci uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija u Srbiji (Factors of impact on the citizens awareness of disaster risks in Serbia)
Svakodnevno, ljudi se susreću sa raznovrsnim bezbednosnim rizicima koji mogu ugroziti njihov život i zdravlje. Svest građana o lokalnim rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija jeste preduslov unapređenja njihove pripremljenosti značajne za ublažavanje posledica. Upravo zato, sprovedeno je kvantitativno istraživanje sa ciljem naučne eksplikacije činioca uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija u Srbiji. Korišćenjem višeetapnog uzorkovanja, anketirano je dve i po hiljade građana sa područja devetnaest lokalnih zajednica. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da je samo polovina ispitanika svesna rizika nastanka vanrednih situacija u lokalnoj zajednici. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da na svest građana o rizicima utiču pol, godine starosti, obrazovanje, uspeh u osnovnoj školi, obrazovanje majke, obrazovanje oca, bračni status, roditeljstvo, briga o invaliditetu, zaposlenost, prihodi domaćinstva, prethodno iskustvo i volonterstvo. Naučni i društveni značaj istraživanja proizilazi iz neispitanog nivoa svesti građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija i činiocima koji direktno ili indirektno utiču na njen nivo. Rezultati istraživanja mogu biti iskorišćeni za koncipiranje strategija i programa usmerenih ka podizanju svesti građana o lokalnim bezbednosnim rizicima. Every day, people face a variety of security risks that can endanger their lives and health. Citizens’ awareness of local risks of emergencies is a precondition for improving their preparedness, which is important for mitigating the consequences. Precisely because of that, quantitative research was conducted with the aim of scientific explanation of the factors influencing the awareness of citizens about the risks of emergencies in Serbia. Using multi-stage sampling, two and a half thousand citizens from nineteen local communities were surveyed. The results of the research show that only half of the respondents are aware of the risk of emergencies in the local community. In addition, citizens’ awareness of risks was found to be influenced by gender, age, education, primary school achievement, mother’s education, father’s education, marital status, parenthood, disability care, employment, household income, previous experience, and volunteering. The scientific and social significance of the research stems from the unexamined level of citizens’ awareness of the risks of emergencies and the factors that directly or indirectly affect their level. The results of the research can be used to design strategies and programs aimed at raising citizens’ awareness of local security risks.
Referenca – Cvetković, V. & Jakovljević, V.(2016). Činioci uticaja na svest građana o rizicima nastanka vanrednih situacija. Zbornik radova, V savetovanje, Upravljanje rizicima, Visoka tehnička škola strukovnih studija, Požarevac, 11-20.
Globalni rizici po zdravlje i odgovor zdravstvenog sistema u vanrednim situacijama (Health risks and response of the health system in emergency situations)
Oblast studija, istraživanja i prakse koja ističe važnost unapređenja zdravlja i dostizanja jednakosti u pristupu zdravstvenoj zaštiti celokupne populacije u svetu, definiše se danas, kao ’’globalno zdravlje’’. Ovaj termin najčešće zamenjuje stariji pojam – ’’međunarodno zdravlje’’ i fokusira se na unapređenje zdravlja širom sveta, smanjenje nejednakosti u mogućnosti pristupa zdravstvenoj zaštiti i zaštiti od globalnih pretnji koje ne poznaju granice. Kada se govori o planiranju, rukovođenju i koordinaciji globalnih zdravstvenih inicijativa kao odgovora na ove pretnje, Svetska zdravstvena organizacija (WHO) ovde igra najvažniju ulogu. Pored nje, važnu ulogu imaju i UNICEF, Svetski program za hranu i Svetska banka. Bezbednost javnog zdravlja obuhvata aktivnosti, kako proaktivne tako i reaktivne, neophodne za smanjenje ranjivosti na događaje koji izlažu riziku kolektivno zdravlje stanovništva širom sveta, a nedostatak iste na globalnom nivou ima negativan uticaj na sve aspekte društva. Nove globalne zdravstvene pretnje u 21. veku su pandemije zaraznih bolesti, bioterorizam, biološko i hemijsko oružje, bolesti prenosive hranom, prirodne katastrofe, hemijski ili radio-nuklearni incidenti kao i zdravstvene posledice ratova, konfikata, klimatskih promena i migracija tokom poslednje decenije. Vanredne situacije često predstavljaju plodno tlo za razvoj epidemija ili pandemija zaraznih bolesti, budući da drastično remete društvenu i ekološku ravnotežu u pogođenim područjima i mogu dovesti do pogoršanja sanitarne i epidemiološke situacije. Odmah po nastupanju vanredne situacije, potrebna je brza procena rizika, praćena definisanjem neophodne dodatne pomoći u vidu osoblja, materijalnih resursa, lekova, bolničkih kapaciteta i prevoznih sredstava i, u krajnjem slučaju traži se i međunarodna pomoć. Zdravstveni problemi koji se najčešće javljaju u vanrednim situacijama su povrede, psihološki problemi izazvani emotivnim stresom, širenje zaraznih bolesti i povećanje broja pacijenata sa endemičnim bolestima koje su već odranije bile prisutne na tom području. U tom periodu, pored zdravstvene zaštite, od velikog je značaja i psihosocijalna podrška građanima. Vanredne situacije zahtevaju posebnu organizaciju sistema zdravstvene zaštite u cilju što bolje zaštite javnog zdravlja. Svi događaji koji potencijalno mogu izazvati ugrožavanje javnog zdravlja na međunarodnom planu (Public health emergency of international concern, PHEIC) obuhvaćeni su Međunarodnim zdravstvenim pravilnikom (International Health Regulations, IHR) koji predstavlja okvir za prevenciju i kontrolu pretnji globalnom zdravlju i koji koordiniše Svetska zdravstvena organizacija (WHO). IHR igra važnu ulogu u globalnoj saradnji koja za cilj ima smanjenje pretnji javnom zdravlju i bezbednosti, i pravno je obavezujući za svih 196 zemalja potpisnica. Globalna mreža za obaveštavanje i odgovor na izbijanje bolesti (Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, GOARN) organizovana je u okviru Svetske zdravstvene organizacije i odgovorna je za monitoring određenih bolesti koje se javljaju po prvi put, ili bolesti koje se iznova javljaju uz veliku mogućnost prelaska u epidemiju. GOARN i WHO zajedno odgovorne su za blagovremeno informisanje populacije o pojavljivanju zaraznih bolesti. Ciljevi IHR trebalo je da budu ispunjeni do 2016., ali je procenjeno da danas tek trećina svih zemalja sveta raspolaže mogućnostima da proceni, identifikuje i odgovori na vanredne situacije u oblasti javnog zdravlja. Globalne preventivne programe pripremaju i vode najbolji svetski stručnjaci u oblasti epidemiologije, nadzora, informatike, menadžmenta, laboratorijskih sistema i drugih relevantnih disciplina. Partnerstva među zemljama i ministarstvima zdravlja vode unapređenju kvaliteta i kvantiteta neophodnih kritičnih struktura javnog zdravlja, boljem globalnom zdravlju i javnoj bezbednosti. The area of study, research and practice that emphasizes the importance of improving health and achieving equity in health care for the entire human population is defined, in modern terms, as ‘’global health’’. For the most part, this term replaced the one previously used – ‘’international health’’ and focuses on worldwide health improvement, reduction of disparities in access to healthcare and protection in the face of global threats that show no regard to national borders. When it comes to planning, leading and coordinating global health initiatives in response to these threats, the World Health Organization (WHO) is the most important international body. Other agencies that stand out are UNICEF, World Food Programme and the World Bank. Public health security encompasses the activities required, both proactive and reactive, to minimize vulnerability to acute public health events that put the collective health of world populations at risk, and lack of global health security has a negative impact on all aspects of society.New global health threats in the 21st century are pandemics of infectious diseases, bioterrorism, biological and chemical weapons, foodborne diseases, natural disasters and chemical or radio nuclear events, as well as the health consequences of wars, conflicts, climate change and migrations during last decade. When it comes to emergency situations, they often foster the development of epidemics or pandemics of infectious diseases as they drastically disturb the social and ecological balance in the affected areas, and can lead to deterioration of sanitary and epidemiological situation. As soon as an emergency occurs, quick risk assessment is necessary, followed by defining the needs for assistance in personnel, material resources, medicines, hospital facilities and transportation means, and, if necessary, international assistance is requested. The most common health problems in emergencies are injuries, emotional stress, infectious disease outbreaks and an increase in the number of patients with endemic diseases already present.At this time, in addition to healthcare, psychosocial support to citizens is of great importance. In general, emergency situations require special organizations of health protection systems for public health protection. All events that might potentially become a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) are covered by the International Health Regulations (IHR) which represent a framework for prevention and control of global health threats, coordinated by the WHO. The IHR plays an important role in global collaboration to mitigate threats to public health and public security and are legally binding for all 196 parties to the agreement. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is organized within WHO, and is responsible for the monitoring of specific diseases which appear for the first time (emerging diseases) or reoccurring diseases with a large epidemic potential (reemerging diseases). GOARN together with WHO are responsible for timely informing of the population about the occurrence of infectious diseases. The IHR goals should have been met until 2016, but it is estimated that only about a third of all the countries in the world currently possess the ability to assess, detect and respond to public health emergencies. Fortunately, global programs are prepared and run by world leaders in epidemiology, surveillance, informatics, management, laboratory systems, and other essential disciplines. Partnerships between countries and ministries of health lead to improved quantity and quality of critical public health services, better global health, and public security.
Referenca – Babić, J.S., Gačić, J., Nikolić, M., Cvetković, V., Rašeta, D. (2017). Globalni rizici po zdravlje i odgovor zdravstvenog sistema u vanrednim situacijama. Zbornik radova, Prva konferencija sa međunarodnim učešćem, ekološka bezbednost i zaštita na radu, 39-40.
Environmental and social management framework (ESMF) for fostering environmental protection and security in Drina river basin riparian countries (Okvir ekološkog i socijalnog upravljanja (ESMF) za podsticanje zaštite i bezbednosti životne sredine u priobalnim zemljama sliva reke Drine)
The transboundary nature of the Environmental issues is recognized as a fact, as in Science, so in practice and in politics. On a global level efforts are being made towards making the Communities resilient on Natural Hazards and Catastrophes that arises from them. This is most due of the fact that the Political borders between states are absolutely irrelevant for the Geography and the Natural processes that happens on Earth. One of the most challenging processes that the Human race is facing is the Climate change issue. Also, the level of drinking water, and most of all, the Water management which is being divvied between two or more states is one of the most common mentioned argument towards the understanding of the Environmental Security Doctrine. Thus, meaning that the access to drinking water especially as a result of water management of another Country could be a reason even for war. That is why this paper tries to answer some of the questions that arises from the fostered international waterway management between three Countries – Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB), through the West Balkans Drina River Basin Management (WBDRBM) actions. These countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Montenegro (MNE) and Serbia (SRB) undoubtedly must strengthen the capacity to plan and implement integrated, cooperative management of the trans-boundary Drina River Basin (DRB) and address climate change adaptation throughout the DRB – based on “global best practices” and within the framework of integrated water resource management (IWRM) involving extensive stakeholder consultations to ensure adequate public participation. The two main questions that this paper is trying to answer are: – The need for Multi-state cooperation to balance conflicting water uses in trans-boundary Drina waters is enhanced, while climate adaptation measures in policy and planning frameworks is mainstreamed. – A shared vision and technical cooperation frameworks agreed with sustainable financing identified, including a strategic action plan for more sustainable and balanced investments, including identified investments that would be the subject of the GEF Drina follow-up actions. Prekogranična priroda pitanja zaštite životne sredine prepoznata je kao činjenica, kako u nauci, tako i u praksi i u politici. Na globalnom nivou se ulažu napori da se zajednice stvore otpornim na prirodne opasnosti i katastrofe koje iz njih proizilaze. To je najviše zbog činjenice da su političke granice između država apsolutno irelevantne za geografiju i prirodne procese koji se dešavaju na Zemlji. Jedan od najizazovnijih procesa sa kojim se suočava ljudska rasa je pitanje klimatskih promena. Takođe, nivo pijaće vode, i najviše od svega, upravljanje vodama koje se deli između dve ili više država jedan je od najčešće spominjanih argumenata ka razumevanju doktrine zaštite životne sredine. Dakle, što znači da bi pristup pijaćoj vodi, posebno kao rezultat upravljanja vodama druge države, mogao biti razlog čak i za rat. Zbog toga ovaj rad pokušava da odgovori na neka od pitanja koja proizlaze iz negovanog upravljanja međunarodnim plovnim putevima između tri zemlje – Bosne i Hercegovine (BiH), Crne Gore (CG) i Srbije (SRB), kroz upravljanje slivom reke Drine sa zapadnog Balkana ( VBDRBM) akcije. Ove države, Bosna i Hercegovina (BiH), Crna Gora (CG) i Srbija (SRB) nesumnjivo moraju ojačati kapacitet za planiranje i sprovođenje integrisanog, kooperativnog upravljanja prekograničnim slivom reke Drine (DRB) i bavljenja prilagođavanjem na klimatske promene tokom čitavog perioda. DRB – zasnovan na „najboljim svetskim praksama“ i u okviru integrisanog upravljanja vodnim resursima (IVRM) koji uključuje opsežne konsultacije sa zainteresovanim stranama kako bi se osiguralo adekvatno učešće javnosti. Dva glavna pitanja na koja ovaj rad pokušava da odgovori su: – Potreba za međudržavnom saradnjom na uravnoteženju konfliktnih upotreba vode u prekograničnim vodama Drine je pojačana, dok su mjere prilagođavanja klime u okvirima politike i planiranja integrirane. – Identifikovani zajednička vizija i okviri tehničke saradnje sa utvrđenim održivim finansiranjem, uključujući strateški akcioni plan za održivije i uravnoteženije investicije, uključujući identifikovane investicije koje će biti predmet sledećih aktivnosti GEF-a Drina.
Referenca – Sudar, S., Aleksandar, I., & Cvetković, V. (2016). Environmental and social management framework (esmf) for fostering environmental protection and security in Drina river basin riparian countries. 7th International Scientific Contemporary Trends in Social Control of Crime, At Macedonia, Skopje, Faculty of Security.
Theoretical foundations related to natural disasters and measuring the resilience of the communities before disasters happens – establishing proposal variables (Teorijske osnove povezane sa prirodnim katastrofama i merenje otpornosti zajednica pre nego što se katastrofe dogode – uspostavljanje promenljiva)
Design/methodology/approach: The paper seeks to answer to the fundamental question about the Natural disasters and their unimpeded existence no matter the preferences of Man, their characteristics, some theoretical observations about the consequences from the Natural disasters, the suitable models for Natural Disaster Management, and, in the end, the Model for measuring the Resilience of the Community according to the place is presented. The paper is divided into 6 parts: 1. Introduction that observes the basic theoretical ground for the material in the paper. Then comes the four major parts: 2. About Natural disasters; 3. Consequences from Natural disasters; 4. Natural disasters Management; 5. Some considerations about determination on the Variables for measuring the resilience based on the location; 6. The model for measuring the resilience according to place; and 5. Final observations and recommendations. The paper is based on qualitative approach. Namely, based on Literature review the Authors had made the overview of the theoretical findings related to the basic questions and the conceptual determination of the meaning on Natural disasters, the consequences that they made, their management, and the proposed variables for measuring the resilience based on cited model, but also express their own concrete suggestions for amending this model. Findings: Scientific review of the knowledge related to Natural disasters and the proposal of an amended model for determining variables for measuring resilience of the communities according to place. Research limitations/implications: The presented model for determination of the resilience of the communities according to place should be implemented designing a questionnaire and a conducted survey. Not having practical data in this manner represents research limitation. However, this proposal should open a debate in order to formulate model that will be the most applicable in the contemporary societies (at least on regional level). Dizajn / metodologija / pristup: Rad želi da odgovori na osnovno pitanje o prirodnim katastrofama i njihovom nesmetanom postojanju bez obzira na preferencije čoveka, njihove karakteristike, neka teorijska zapažanja o posledicama prirodnih katastrofa, pogodne modele za prirodne katastrofe Upravljanje i, na kraju, predstavljen je model za merenje otpornosti zajednice prema mestu. Rad je podeljen u 6 delova: 1. Uvod koji uvažava osnovni teorijski osnov za gradivo u radu. Zatim dolaze četiri glavna dela: 2. O prirodnim katastrofama; 3. Posledice prirodnih katastrofa; 4. Upravljanje prirodnim katastrofama; 5. Neka razmatranja o određivanju promenljivih za merenje elastičnosti na osnovu lokacije; 6. Model za merenje elastičnosti prema mestu; i 5. Završna zapažanja i preporuke. Rad je zasnovan na kvalitativnom pristupu. Naime, na osnovu pregleda literature, autori su napravili pregled teorijskih nalaza u vezi sa osnovnim pitanjima i konceptualnim određivanjem značenja prirodnih katastrofa, posledica koje su donele, njihovog upravljanja i predloženih promenljivih za merenje otpornosti na osnovu na navedenom modelu, ali takođe izražavaju sopstvene konkretne predloge za izmenu ovog modela. Nalazi: Naučni pregled znanja u vezi sa prirodnim katastrofama i predlog izmenjenog modela za određivanje promenljivih za merenje otpornosti zajednica prema mestu. Ograničenja / implikacije istraživanja: Predstavljeni model za određivanje otpornosti zajednica prema mestu treba primeniti dizajniranjem upitnika i sprovedenom anketom. Nepostojanje praktičnih podataka na ovaj način predstavlja ograničenje istraživanja. Međutim, ovaj predlog bi trebao otvoriti raspravu kako bi se formulisao model koji će biti najprimenljiviji u savremenim društvima (barem na regionalnom nivou).
Referenca – Aleksandar, I., Cvetković, V. & Sudar, S. (2016). Theoretical foundations related to natural disasters and measuring the resilience of the communities before disasters happens – establishing proposal variables. 7th International Scientific Contemporary Trends in Social Control of Crime, At Macedonia, Skopje, Faculty of Security, 79-89.
The role of police in achieving security on the Danube as international waterways in Serbia (Uloga policije u postizanju bezbednosti na Dunavu kao međunarodnom plovnom putu u Srbiji)
Danube as an international navigable river in Serbia and water main roads of central and southeastern Europe, despite all of its advantages it contains one of the kind of components suitable for performing criminal activities (general, economic and organized crime and terrorism). Also, it can happen flooding, traffic accidents, fires and accidents that require the involvement of specially trained first responders. In addition, the specificity of the police work aimed at achieving security of the Danube, directly contributed to the development of police organization and in this segment. It is, therefore, a separate organizational unit of Serbian police such as river police, border police, gendarmerie specialized units (divers) and fire-rescue units with fire boats, trained and equipped in order to take preventive and repressive measures and actions in order to preserve security on the Danube and the actions of protection and rescue of people, material and cultural resources and the environment. Considering the international, cross-border, security-protective, water management, transport, tourism, sports and recreation, hunting and other issues on the river Danube, the authors present the possibility of an integrated security management at international navigable rivers. Specifically, the paper introduced the modern concept of the security management of the overall creative and destructive anthropogenic and natural phenomena and processes that are manifested in the international waterway (river) road, and are related to the joint efforts of police, customs, inspection services, port authorities, emergency medical, army, line ministries and other state agencies, water management companies, local authorities, social organizations and citizens. Dunav kao međunarodna plovna reka u Srbiji i magistralni putevi centralne i jugoistočne Evrope, uprkos svim svoj